UFC Vegas 61 Predictions, Odds and Results: Dern vs Yan

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UFC Vegas 61 Predictions, Odds and Results: Dern vs Yan

UFC Vegas 61 Pintsized Background

So has Mark Zuckerberg bought out the UFC Apex or what? Come on MMA journalists, pokes stick, do something for once. Regardless, UFC Vegas 61 is a strange melting pot of bouts.

In the UFC Vegas 61 Main Event, Mackenzie Dern’s highly touted BJJ skills are pitted against the rough’n’ready scrapper Xiaonan Yan. Women’s Strawweight is rarely the most entertaining division, but a headliner sure helps tick boxes for the suits. Meanwhile, the Co-Main Event featuring Randy Brown and Francisco Trinaldo could well see the bloody end of the wily old veteran.

Our featured preliminary for UFC Vegas 61 sees the corpse of Aleksei Oleinik tussle with the human fridge, Ilir Latifi. Possibly one of the greatest meme fights to be had at Heavyweight – so props to the UFC for pushing such a mess. Deeper down, Brendan Allen and Krzysztof Jotko face off in a somewhat meaningful Middleweight fight – with a loss for either potentially knocking on the ‘exit door’.

Where/When is UFC Vegas 61 taking place:
October 1, 2022. UFC Apex. Nevada, United States.

What time does UFC Vegas 61 start:
🇬🇧 UK: 9pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 4pm

What channel is UFC Vegas 61 on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+

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🥊 UFC Vegas 61 Main Card | 🌟 UFC Vegas 61 Prelims | 📺 YouTube

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UFC Vegas 61 Picks & Odds

UFC Vegas 61
Fights & Odds
WinnerMethodRound
Mackenzie Dern (-230)
Xiaonan Yan (+195)
DernSubmission2
Randy Brown (-320)
Francisco Trinaldo (+265)
BrownDecision/
Raoni Barcelos (-240)
Trevin Jones (+200)
BarcelosDecision/
Sodiq Yusuff (-1150)
Don Shainis (+750)
YusuffTKO2
John Castaneda (-180)
Daniel Santos (+155)
CastanedaDecision/
Mike Davis (-190)
Viacheslav Borschev (+160)
BorschevDecision/
Aleksei Oleinik (+160)
Ilir Latifi (-190)
LatifiTKO2
Joaquim Silva (-145)
Jesse Ronson (+125)
SilvaTKO3
Brendan Allen (+105)
Krzysztof Jotko (-125)
JotkoDecision/
Maxim Grishin (-170)
Philipe Lins (+145)
GrishinDecision/
Julija Stoliarenko (-120)
Chelsea Chandler (+100)
StoliarenkoSubmission1
Randy Costa (-305)
Guido Cannetti (+255)
CostaTKO1
Odds are based on BestFightOdds.com. All odds of 30 September 2022.

UFC Vegas 61: Main Event

Mackenzie Dern vs Xiaonan Yan

Women’s Strawweight (115)

Mackenzie Dern (12-2)

There is a strong feeling amongst analysts that Mackenzie Dern hit her ceiling against Marina Rodrigues. It would be foolish to deny Dern has exceptionally impressive submission chops on the ground. Without the vehicle of solid wrestling to chase her ideal fight, however, will lead to Dern being picked apart on the feet. The 29-year-old owns a phenomenal chin and has grown in confidence in her ability to pressure opponents, yet there remains an unbudgeable stiffness to her striking. Yan was dismantled by Carla Esparza on the mat, and while the technical wrestling gap is comical to Dern, the latter’s size could poke similar holes in Yan’s TDD.

Xiaonan Yan (15-3)

Yan may have lost to Marina Rodriguez on the scorecards, but there is certainly an argument that could be had which saw the Team Alpha Male fighter’s hand raised. Yan isn’t the next coming of Anderson Silva, but against Dern, Yan’s footwork and distance control will dance circles around Dern. Yan would level the playing field somewhat if she opts to strike in the pocket – bringing in Dern’s natural power and closing the gap to grapple. Can Yan box the ears of the wildly aggressive Dern for five rounds? Highly unlikely.

Dern vs Yan Prediction: Dern Submission Round 2

Yan isn’t the next coming of Anderson Silva, but against Dern, Yan’s footwork and distance control can dance circles around her opponent. While Dern owns a phenomenal chin and has grown in confidence in her ability to pressure opponents, there remains an unbudgeable stiffness to her striking. Regardless, the big question remains whether Yan can keep the wildly aggressive Dern on the outside for five rounds. It seems highly unlikely, and if Dern somehow finds her way to the mat, her exceptional submission chops will find the win.

Mackenzie Dern sure does love her job | UFC Vegas 61 | Mackenzie Dern vs Xiaonan Yan Prediction, Analysis, Odds and Result
Mackenzie Dern sure does love her job

Return to UFC Vegas 61 Fight Card


UFC Vegas 61: Co-Main Event

Randy Brown vs Francisco Trinaldo

Welterweight (170)

Randy Brown (15-4)

A fantastic match-up. For all the physical gifts that Rudeboy owns, the 6’3″ fighter seems to only put all of his weapons together for short 30-second bursts every so often. Brown can box off his jab, string together combinations in the pocket and use his weight smartly in the clinch – but there is the ‘Leon Edwards-esque’ level of comfort that sees Brown switch off just as soon. Against the thoroughly consistent Francisco Trinaldo, who will offer few defensive openings and carries huge power on the counter – this fight could either be a snoozefest or back-and-forth knockdown affair based on the number of mistakes that Brown makes.

Francisco Trinaldo (28-8)

If Brown decides to sit on his jab and dictate a solid pace, Trinaldo lacks the weapons to work his way on the inside as a forty-four-year-old. At the same time, Brown regularly manages to let his opponents back in and make it competitive. I imagine Trinaldo’s massive overhands will cause some confusion on the scorecards, but Brown’s pace and volume to steal it.

Brown vs Trinaldo Prediction: Brown Decision

If Brown decides to sit on his jab and dictate a solid pace, Trinaldo lacks the weapons to work his way on the inside as a forty-four-year-old. At the same time, Brown regularly manages to let his opponents back in and make it competitive. Trinaldo, if anything, is thoroughly consistent as a powerful counter-puncher that offers few defensive holes. I imagine Trinaldo’s massive overhands will cause some confusion on the scorecards, but Brown’s pace and volume to steal it.

Randy Brown is equal parts frustrating and electrifying | UFC Vegas 61 | Randy Brown vs Francisco Trinaldo Prediction, Odds, Analysis and Result
Randy Brown is equal parts frustrating and electrifying

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UFC Vegas 61: Main Card

Raoni Barcelos vs Trevin Jones

Bantamweight (135)

Raoni Barcelos (16-3)

Is Raoni Barcelos the best fighter on a two-fight slide? The Brazilian showed his age against Victor Henry last time out, but he remains a buttery smooth striker. It’s unlikely Barcelos will ever receive the right match-making for a career twilight title push, but he remains a top wrestler who prefers to dance on the feet. Poetry in motion.

Trevin Jones (13-8)

Jones was expected to offer nothing than a W for Timur Valiev when he was called up to the UFC in late 2020. The journeyman has delivered entertainment in his four-fight stretch and has made the most of his athletic gifts. The inability to tie together his plus power and slick BJJ into consistent performances, or at least, consistent round-taking – has seen him linger as a gatekeeper.

Barcelos vs Jones Prediction: Barcelos Decision

It’s unlikely Barcelos will ever receive the right match-making for a career twilight title push, but he remains a top wrestler who prefers to dance on the feet. While the Brazilian showed his age last time out against Victor Henry, Trevin Jones’ inability to tie together his plus power and slick BJJ leaves me favouring the far more consistent Barcelos. Although Jones will likely tag Barcelos at some point over the fight, it’s too difficult to back another shock stoppage ala Timur Valiev.

Trevin Jones sparking Timur Valiev has to be one of the biggest recent shocks | UFC Vegas 61 | Raoni Barcelos vs Trevin Jones Prediction, Analysis, Odds and Result
Trevin Jones sparking Timur Valiev has to be one of the biggest recent shocks

Return to UFC Vegas 61 Fight Card


Sodiq Yusuff vs Don Shainis

Featherweight (145)

Sodiq Yusuff (12-2)

The UFC appears unsure of how to push Sodiq Yusuff. After suffering a loss in the well-matched prospect bout against Arnold Allen, the Nigerian has lingered amongst the unranked Featherweights. To go from Giga Chikadze to Don Shainis is a strange call from the match-maker, albeit, Yusuff likely wants another fight to close out the year. Yusuff’s TDD could be punished by Shainis, but going off the UFC debutant’s recent fights, this is likely to devolve into a firefight from the opening bell.

Don Shainis (12-3)

Shainis will bring a hella entertaining style to the octagon. Despite the American’s base being wrestling, a three-fight first-round KO streak highlights the risk-first approach that underlines Shainis’ game. Swarming Yusuff with bombs could catch the Nigerian unaware early, but it will be heavily punished down the stretch if unsuccessful.

Yusuff vs Shainis Prediction: Yusuff TKO Round 2

Shainis will bring a hella entertaining style to the octagon. Despite the American’s base being wrestling, a three-fight first-round KO streak highlights the risk-first approach that underlines Shainis’ game. As such, the holes in Yusuff’s TDD will likely remain untested in this bout. Swarming Yusuff with bombs could catch the Nigerian unaware early, but it will be heavily punished down the stretch if unsuccessful.

Sodiq Yusuff vs Arnold Allen was a belter of a fight that deserves a rewatch! | UFC Vegas 61 | Sodiq Yusuff vs Don Shainis Prediction, Odds, Analysis and Result
Sodiq Yusuff vs Arnold Allen was a belter of a fight that deserves a rewatch!

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John Castaneda vs Daniel Santos

Catchweight (140)

John Castaneda (19-5)

After a gutsy loss to Nathaniel Wood, Castaneda has made the most of his time in the UFC with stoppages over Eddie Wineland and Miles John. Neither represents the top names in the Bantamweight landscape, but Sexi Mexi can only make the most of what is offered by the UFC. Key to Castaneda’s success is his well-rounded skillset and savvy decision-making that sees him stripping opponents of their best weapons.

Daniel Santos (9-2)

Debut jitters or not, Santos’ damp squib of performance against Julio Arce has led to many writing off the once exciting regional prospect. Castaneda could chase takedowns early and control the fight early, but the heart demands a messy scrap on the feet. Not that Santos fights stupidly, his aggression and power had just not yet an immovable force such as Julio Arce.

Castaneda vs Santos Prediction: Castaneda Decision

Key to Castaneda’s success is his well-rounded skillset and savvy decision-making that sees him stripping opponents of their best weapons. As such, Sexi Mexi could chase takedowns early and control the fight early, but the heart demands a messy scrap on the feet. Not that Santos fights stupidly, his aggression and power had just not yet an immovable force such as Julio Arce.

Can Daniel Santos earn his first win under the UFC banner? | UFC Vegas 61 | John Castaneda vs Daniel Santos Prediction, Analysis, Odds and Result
Can Daniel Santos earn his first win under the UFC banner?

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Mike Davis vs Viachelslav Borshchev

Lightweight (155)

Mike Davis (9-2)

It has been only two years since we last saw Mike Davis – that is criminal. Sure, Davies is at fault for pulling out of the Jai Herbert fight, but damn if Beast Boy hasn’t failed epically to build on the hype after taking Mason Jones’ 0. Davis is a shrewd enough fighter to know when to wrestle, however, he certainly has no aversion to a slugfest. Against Slava Clause, Davis will have to be acutely aware of leaving his body open against the slick kickboxer.

Viacheslav Borschev (6-2)

Marc Diakiese may have laid down a disgustingly dull gameplan against Borschev, but the Brit exposed Borschev’s stark vulnerabilities on the mat. Borschev is far tighter on the outside than Davis and could snipe away against his larger foe who tends to tire fairly early into fights. Considering that Davis eats near to seven significant strikes per minute, Borshchev may be able to open up in a manner he was unable to against Dakota Bush and Marc Diakiese.

Davies vs Borshchev Prediction: Borschev Decision

Davis is a shrewd enough fighter to know when to wrestle, however, he certainly has no aversion to a slugfest. Despite the dullness of Marc Diakiese’s performance, the Brit sure did expose Borschev’s stark vulnerabilities on the mat. Regardless, Slava Claus has the opportunity to open up into his more natural kickboxing game against an opponent who eats near to seven significant strikes per minute.

Slava Claus represents one of the top striking prospects at Lightweight | UFC Vegas 61 | Mike Davis vs Viacheslav Borschev Prediction, Analysis, Odds and Result
Slava Claus represents one of the top striking prospects at Lightweight

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UFC Vegas 61: Preliminary Card

Aleksei Oleinik vs Ilir Latifi

Heavyweight (265)

Aleksei Oleinik (60-16-1)

This is nothing more than a meme. A deep dive into how far the UFC can torture their fans. Beating Jared Vanderaa is as valuable as British Sterling these days, but Ilir Latifi hasn’t really looked himself since 2016. Oleinik remains a fantastic one-round submission artist, with hilarious sloppy power-punching to boot.

Ilir Latifi (15-8)

By all accounts, Ilir Latifi should not lose this fight. The Swede’s controlling top game should be kept in the locket, at least in the first round, so as not to allow Oleinik a sniff of a submission. Not that Latifi’s hands are anything to write home about. Through having a gas tank longer than five minutes, however, Latifi should crank out enough output outside of the opening round to claim this.

Oleinik vs Latifi Prediction: Latifi TKO Round 2

The Swede’s controlling top game should be kept in the locket, at least in the first round, so as not to allow Oleinik a sniff of a submission. Not that Latifi’s hands are anything to write home about – Oleinik has hilariously sloppy power-punching in his locker. Through having a gas tank longer than five minutes, however, Latifi should crank out enough output outside of the opening round to claim this.

Jared Vanderaa was no match for Aleksei Oleinik's scarf hold | UFC Vegas 61 | Aleksei Oleinik vs Jared Vanderaa Prediction, Analysis, Odds and Result
Jared Vanderaa was no match for Aleksei Oleinik’s scarf hold

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Joaquim Silva vs Jesse Ronson

Lightweight (155)

Joaquim Silva (11-3)

Taking a year out from his shock first-round starching to Ricky Glenn, Silva returns to a vastly different Lightweight landscape. The Brazilian owns heavy hands but it feels like an eternity from the mid-2010s when Silva’s athleticism and power carried him through fights. Jesse Ronson is an equally messy striker though, and punch-for-punch, Silva vastly outguns the Canadian.

Jesse Ronson (21-11)

A waning chin, off of the PEDs and vastly undergunned in a firefight, Ronson could be in for a tough night. The awkwardness of the Canadian’s style could create timing issues for Silva, but the fight will likely descend into a brawl in the pocket. At which point, Silva’s power will shine.

Silva vs Ronson Prediction: Silva TKO Round 3

The Brazilian owns heavy hands but it feels like an eternity from the mid-2010s when Silva’s athleticism and power carried him through fights. Jesse Ronson is an equally messy striker though, and punch-for-punch, Silva vastly outguns the Canadian. Especially when you add in Ronson’s waning chin over the past couple of years.

Forgotten UFC knockouts - Jesse Ronson starched Nicolas Dalby | UFC Vegas 61 | Joaquim Silva vs Jesse Ronson Prediction, Analysis, Odds and Result
Forgotten UFC knockouts – Jesse Ronson starched Nicolas Dalby

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Brendan Allen vs Krzysztof Jotko

Middleweight (185)

Brendan Allen (19-5)

To be fair to Brendan Allen, despite his ceiling being clearly around the top-15 mark, the Middleweight remains extremely active. Issues surround Allen’s chin, especially when he begins to tire in high-paced fights. Jacob Malkoun deserved the nod against Allen last time out, and with such a shock, we can only hope that the American focuses his energies back on his grappling.

Krzysztof Jotko (24-5)

I dislike everything about Jotko’s game. Low-risk, pitter-patter striking on the outside with never any intent to push for a finish. If an opponent closes the distance, the Pole immediately latches onto the clinch. Considering how hard Jotko is to takedown, there is a real possibility that Jotko stops a gassed Allen late – but it will take much more than that to win me back as a fan.

Allen vs Jotko Prediction: Jotko Decision

Considering how hard Jotko is to takedown, there is a real possibility that Jotko stops a gassed Allen late – but it will take much more than that to win me back as a fan. On the other hand, Sean Strickland was able to walk Jotko with a similar pressure that Allen can provide. The Pole’s no-risk policy will see him land the cleaner work and likely sweep the scorecards.

Will Brendan Allen continue to ego strike? | UFC Vegas 61 | Brendan Allen vs Krzysztof Jotko Prediction, Analysis, Odds and Result
Will Brendan Allen continue to ego strike?

Return to UFC Vegas 61 Fight Card


Maxim Grishin vs Philipe Lins

Light Heavyweight (205)

Maxim Grishin (32-9-2)

What on Earth is the UFC doing with Grishin? The 38-year-old veteran isn’t getting any younger and it felt like they were feeding him to Jailton Almeida before he pulled out. Why then is he facing the very tame Philipe Lins? Grishin is schooled enough on the feet to drown Lins on the feet, while it’s difficult to see how the Brazilian takes Grishin down.

Philipe Lins (15-5)

It was good to see Lins’ body transformation after a dreadful time at Heavyweight, but Grishin represents a huge step-up in quality after Marcin Prachnio. Grishin is technically sparkling but he lacks the athletic edge that made him so potent in the PFL. It’s doubtful whether Lins owns anything that will catch the vastly experienced Russian by surprise.

Grishin vs Lins Prediction: Grishin Decision

Grishin is technically sparkling but he lacks the athletic edge that made him so potent in the PFL. Still, it’s doubtful whether Lins owns anything that will catch the vastly experienced Russian by surprise.

Philipe Lins without a muffin top is a scary fighter | UFC Vegas 61 | Maxim Grishin vs Philipe Lins Prediction, Analysis, Odds and Result
Philipe Lins without a muffin top is a scary fighter

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Julija Stoliarenko vs Chelsea Chandler

Women’s Catchweight (140)

Julija Stoliarenko (10-6-1)

The armbar merchant did it once again against Jessica-Rose Clark. Chandler is a very raw fighter who could well walk herself onto an armbar – such is Women’s checks notes Catchweight.

Chelsea Chandler (4-1)

UFC debutant, Chelsea Chandler, seems to have joined the premier organisation far too early in her journey. Chandler has the athletic foundation to mould into a solid fighter, but her lack of experience is a red flag against a one-trick opponent.

Stoliarenko vs Chandler Prediction: Stoliarenko Submission Round 1

The armbar merchant did it once again against Jessica-Rose Clark. Chandler has the athletic foundation to mould into a solid fighter, but as of yet, the Cesar Gracie product remains very raw. Expecting Chandler to walk herself onto an armbar – such is Women’s checks notes Catchweight.

Jessica Rose-Clark walked straight into the armbar merchant | UFC Vegas 61 | Julija Stoliarenko vs Chelsea Chandler Prediction, Analysis, Odds and Result
Jessica Rose-Clark walked straight into the armbar merchant

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Randy Costa vs Guido Cannetti

Bantamweight (135)

Randy Costa (6-3)

The UFC couldn’t make this clearer that they want a bloody finish to kick off the fight night. Both men look for the kill in the first round before falling off a cliff by the second round. Costa is younger, faster and fresher, not to mention more dynamic behind an extremely underrated jab.

Guido Cannetti (9-6)

The Argentinian 42-year-old continues to ply his one-round trade in the UFC but this is a tall order. Costa is equally as potent in the first five minutes, with the old vet unlikely to survive Costa’s lethal head kicks.

Costa vs Cannetti Prediction: Costa TKO Round 1

The UFC couldn’t make this clearer that they want a bloody finish to kick off the fight night. Both men look for the kill in the first round before falling off a cliff by the second round. Costa is younger, faster and fresher, not to mention more dynamic behind an extremely underrated jab. Cannetti to be welcomed to head kick city.

We all desperately need a speedy return of 'head kick' Randy Costa | UFC Vegas 61 | Randy Costa vs Guido Cannetti Prediction, Analysis, Odds and Result
We all desperately need a speedy return of ‘head kick’ Randy Costa

Return to UFC Vegas 61 Fight Card


TIPPING JAR

Pintsized Interests is just a baby finding its first steps in the big, bad world of sports journalism. If you enjoy the content that is regularly uploaded then please consider donating via the link below. Any amount is greatly appreciated, and will go towards ensuring the survival of Pintsized Interests in the long-term.


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