UFC Vegas 57 Predictions, Odds and Results: Tsarukyan vs Gamrot
Pintsized Background
What’s that? A richly deserved exciting main event between two of the most underrated Lightweights in the business? Entering the UFC Apex, Las Vegas are two potential future champions in Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot.
Don’t neglect the co-main event, however, with Neil Magny and Shavkat Rakhmonov locking horns in a perfect crossroads affair. The Haitian Sensation has stumbled around the past couple of years, but it wasn’t that long ago the towering Welterweight was smothering Carlos Condit, Jingliang Li and Robbie Lawler. Rakhmonov will be looking to extend his impressive UFC stint to four back-to-back finishes.
Where/When is UFC Vegas 57 taking place:
June 25, 2022. UFC Apex. Nevada, US.
What time does UFC Vegas 57 start:
🇬🇧 UK: 11PM / 🇺🇸 US ET: 7pm
What channel is UFC Vegas 57 on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
- 🚀 Preview: UFC Austin Predictions: Kattar vs Emmett
- 🥊 PI’s Recommended Fight: Ricardo Ramos vs Danny Chavez
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- 📊 Statistics: MMA Predictions Results: January 2022
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UFC Vegas 57 Picks & Odds
| UFC Vegas 57 Fights & Odds | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan (-255) Mateusz Gamrot (+215) | Tsarukyan | Decision | / |
| Neil Magny (+300) Shavkat Rakhmonov (-365) | Magny | Decision | / |
| Alan Baudot (-120) Josh Parisian (+100) | Parisian | TKO | 2 |
| Christos Giagos (+195) Thiago Moises (-230) | Moises | Decision | / |
| Nate Maness (+600) Umar Nurmagomedov (-850) | Nurmagomedov | Submission | 1 |
| Chris Curtis (-155) Rodolfo Vieira (+135) | Curtis | TKO | 2 |
| Carlos Ulberg (-115) Tafon Nchukwi (-105) | Nchukwi | TKO | 1 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (+175) T.J. Brown (-205) | Brown | Decision | / |
| Raulian Paiva (+115) Sergey Morozov (-135) | Paiva | Decision | / |
| Cody Durden (+100) J.P. Buys (-120) | Buys | Decision | / |
| Brian Kelleher (+140) Mario Bautista (-165) | Kelleher | TKO | 2 |
| Jinh Yu Frey (-260) Vanessa Demopoulos (+220) | Frey | Decision | / |
UFC Vegas 57: Main Event
Armen Tsarukyan vs Mateusz Gamrot
Lightweight (155)
Arman Tsarukyan (18-2)
Tsarukyan has been a burning prospect since his very respectable debut loss to Islam Makhachev. Mahachev was already well regarded as a feared grappler, with few critics expecting Tsarukyan to offer much outside of survival. Oh, how wrong they were.
The Armenian owns a lethal top game that continues to take strides in each successive victory. The twenty-five-year-old has been offered no help by the UFC matchmakers on his way to the top. It’s all the more impressive that Tsarukyan wracked up eight minutes of control time a piece against the likes of Matt Frevola and Olivier Aubin-Mercier.
Tsarukyan’s pressure on the feet is of particular interest. By far the more dynamic stand-up fighter, Gamrot will be forced to surrender the centre of the octagon. The Pole will continue to shoot frequent takedowns but will be denied healthy space for effective wrestling. Don’t be surprised if Tsarukyan’s left hook, his money shot, wobbles Gamrot.
Mateusz Gamrot (20-1)
After years of hardcore MMA fans worshipping the ground that Mateusz Gamrot walks upon, they swiftly sobered by a muted debut performance against Guram Kutateladze. Granted, Gamrot could have been given the nod of the night and Kutateladze has proven himself far better than previously anticipated. Debut losses can derail a hype train before it even sets off, however, so the Pole’s three-finish streak has to be credited.
Much of the Polish lightweight’s success stems from his powerful wrestling base. Often timed to perfection, Gamrot is simple yet efficient in his work. Constant bobbing level changes on the feet, before sneaking in a single leg off a lunging straight. Jeremy Stephens is a vastly experienced veteran, but even Lil Heathen was bamboozled early by the speed of Gamrot’s takedowns.
A major concern that continues to arise in each fight is Gamrot’s tendency to back up on a straight line. Diego Ferreira is one of the tamer strikers in the division, yet the Brazilian’s short bursts saw Gamrot keep his head on the centre-line whilst failing to move laterally. Tsarukyan packs a far more spiteful punch and could punish Gamrot’s defensive deficiencies after the initial striking layers.
Predicted Result: Tsarukyan Decision
Much of the Polish lightweight’s success stems from his powerful wrestling base. Often timed to perfection, Gamrot is simple yet efficient in his work. Constant bobbing level changes on the feet, before sneaking in a single leg off a lunging straight. Tsarukyan’s pressure on the feet will deny Gamrot space in the octagon, but regular shots will still be attempted.
A major concern that plagues Gamrot is his tendency to back up on a straight line. Diego Ferreira is one of the tamer strikers in the division, yet the Brazilian’s short bursts saw Gamrot keep his head on the centre-line. Don’t be surprised if Tsarukyan’s left hook, his money shot, wobbles Gamrot. This should be a fascinating affair over five rounds, which may rely on whether Gamrot can neutralise Tsarukyan’s pressure.
Result: Gamrot def. Tsarukyan // Decision (UD – 48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
UFC Vegas 57: Co-Main Event
Neil Magny vs Shavkat Rakhmonov
Welterweight (170)
Neil Magny (26-8)
The Haitian Sensation may not be a walking highlight reel, but there’s a lot to like with the veteran. Magny’s freakish frame provides a constant mountain for opponents to climb. Finally using his jab to better effect to maintain distance, Magny’s best use of his size is to stifle opponents in the clinch. Unfortunately, Rakhmonov owns the fundamentals necessary to battle inside of Magny’s reach and pick holes in the American’s porous defence.
Shavkat Rakhmonov (15-0)
Somewhat rivalling Magny’s size, Rakhmonov enters the octagon immediately taking away one of Magny’s key weapons. Magny has proven time again that he can dig deep, while the Kazakh fighter is still an unproven product late in fights against the likes of Magny’s disgustingly swarmy, neutralising clinch game. If Rakhmonov enters the fight hoping to reactively adapt to Magny, as it appears he has opted for over his short UFC career, he will find himself lulled into a dull-paced, uncomfortable affair.
Predicted Result: Magny Decision
Somewhat rivalling Magny’s size, Rakhmonov enters the octagon immediately taking away one of Magny’s key weapons. Magny has proven time again that he can dig deep, while the Kazakh fighter is still an unproven product late in fights against the likes of Magny’s disgustingly swarmy, neutralising clinch game. Rakhmonov certainly owns the fundamentals to get inside of Magny’s reach and pick holes in the American’s defence. Seems foolish to pick a man wobbled by Max Griffin, but Magny is a true litmus paper test for Rakhmonov.
Result: Rakhmonov def. Magny // Submission (guillotine choke) Round 2 4:58
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
UFC Vegas 57: Main Card
Josh Parisian vs Alan Baudot
Heavyweight (265)
Josh Parisian (14-5)
Goodness, gracious. A man who was cut apart by Don’Tale Mayes, FROM CRUCIFIX, features two fights away from the headliner? Parisian may have a string of first-round knockouts in the regionals, but that power has been almost non-existent in the UFC. The Michigan fighter is tough and the far more natural Heavyweight than Alan Baudot, but the praise ends there.
Alan Baudot (8-3)
For an overblown Light Heavyweight, the Black Samourai is an exciting striker to watch. Dynamic with intercepting elbows, Baudot also flies out of the blocks with well-timed, accurate counters. Unfortunately, Baudot lacks the natural strength to keep Parisian’s hulking mass from walking him down and pinned to the mat.
Predicted Result: Parisian TKO Round 2
For an overblown Light Heavyweight, the Black Samourai is an exciting striker to watch. Dynamic with intercepting elbows, Baudot also flies out of the blocks with well-timed, accurate counters. Unfortunately, Baudot lacks the natural strength to keep Parisian’s hulking mass from walking him down and pinned to the mat.
Result: Parisian def. Baudot // TKO (punches) Round 2 3:04
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
Thiago Moises vs Christos Giagos
Lightweight (155)
Thiago Moises (15-6)
A two-fight slide sucks to see for a prospect, but the hype train was artificially lit by the UFC to try to give Makhachev a credible scalp. After impressing simply by reaching the fourth round with the feared Dagestani grappler, Moises was stunned in the first round by Joel Alvarez. Moises is easily herded onto the cage but carries enough firepower to fight his way out against the likes of Giagos’ striking prowess. If Giagos looks to take this to the mat, Moises is more than skilled to survive to wait out Giagos’ ticking time bomb of a gas tank.
Christos Giagos (19-9)
The Spartan is a decent fighter to have around to test prospects but this match-up feels like a bridge too far. Giagos visibly slows after the first round, aided by his high-octane style that relies on stand-up pressure and early submission attempts. The X-Factor is whether Giagos can take Moises down early enough to make a difference. If so, Giagos cannot afford to sloppily transition and allow Moises to escape as easily as Tsarukyan.
Predicted Result: Moises Decision
Moises is easily herded onto the cage but carries enough firepower to fight his way out against the likes of Giagos’ striking prowess. The X-Factor is whether Giagos can take Moises down early enough to make a difference. If so, Giagos cannot afford to sloppily transition and allow Moises to escape as easily as Tsarukyan. Either way, Moises’ gas tank should see a shifting of the tide by the mid-point.
Result: Moises def. Giagos // Submission (rear-naked choke) Round 1 3:05
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Nate Maness
Bantamweight (135)
Umar Nurmagomedov (14-0)
The Nurmagomedov name really seems to throw the bookmakers. Granted, Umar is an undefeated prospect who has sparkled in the UFC so far, but Nate Maness remains an intriguing test. Maness is the king of recovery and could drag Nurmagomedov into deep waters. Ridiculous mobility will allow the Russian to keep to favourable exchanges, while Umar’s grappling prowess is already clear in his highlight reel package.
Nate Maness (14-1)
On the one hand, Maness was pieced apart by Tony Gravely for the best of two minutes. On the other, Maness remains a constant powerful threat and owns a granite chin to wait for the prime opportunity. While I would like for this fight to go deep just to see how Nurmagomedov can adapt, I expect Maness will walk into a trap early.
Predicted Result: Nurmagomedov Submission Round 1
On the one hand, Maness was pieced apart by Tony Gravely for the best of two minutes. On the other, Maness remains a constant powerful threat and owns a granite chin to wait for the prime opportunity. Unfortunately for Maness, Nurmagomedov’s mobility will allow him to keep to favourable exchanges. Although I would like for this fight to go deep just to see how Nurmagomedov can adapt, I expect Maness will walk into a trap early.
Result: Nurmagomedov def. Maness // Decision (UD – 30-27, 30-26, 30-25)
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Chris Curtis vs Rodolfo Vieira
Middleweight (185)
Chris Curtis (28-8)
One of the feel-good stories of 2021, Chris Curtis was finally rewarded after a long, punishing career facing some of the best in MMA. All that experience has paid off for Curtis, however. Fascinatingly patient to start fights, Curtis imitates a budget Lomachenko as he downloads his opponent’s patterns before entering the matrix. Curtis can be out-wrestled, but he has never been submitted – likely owing to his smart decision-making and efficient movements.
Rodolfo Vieira (8-1)
While I am a big fan of submission wizards in MMA, I’m not sure I can ever be truly confident in Vieira after the Hernandez fight. The Brazilian’s striking can certainly be refined over time, but the gas tank is a worry when combined with Vieira’s preference for frantic flurries. Vieira’s chances of an early submission are high as Curtis does take time to warm into fights. I’m letting my heart take the wheel for this one, though.
Predicted Result: Curtis TKO Round 2
While I am a big fan of submission wizards in MMA, I’m not sure I can ever be truly confident in Vieira after the Anthony Hernandez fight. Vieira’s chances of an early submission are high as Curtis does take time to warm into fights. Still, Curtis is vastly experienced and has never been submitted across his long career. I’m letting my heart take the wheel for this one, though.
Result: Curtis def. Vieira // Decision (UD – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
UFC Vegas 57: Preliminary Card
Tafon Nchukwi vs Carlos Ulberg
Light Heavyweight (205)
Tafon Nchukwi (6-2)
Some low, low-level Light Heavyweight quality to kick off the featured prelims. Nchuwi is a durable powerhouse of a man, but his power has failed to transition from the regionals to the UFC. Aside from an unsurprising Azamat Murzakanov bomb switching off the lights, the Cameroonian remains a very difficult man to take out. Nchukwi applies consistent pressure and will punish Ulberg if he full-blooded flies out of the blocks similar to the Kennedy Nzechukwu fight.
Carlos Ulberg (4-1)
Part-time fighter, full-time model. Carlos Ulberg would be an easy sell for the UFC if he could decide on a game plan. After falling on his sword trying to blast Nzechukwu out in a glorious first-round debut, Ulberg reverted to a hyper-defensive, conservative approach against Fabio Cherant. It’s a lucky dip as to what to expect from the Kiwi kickboxer, but his height could cause a real issue for Nchukwi.
Predicted Result: Nchukwi TKO Round 1
It’s a lucky dip as to what to expect from the Kiwi kickboxer. After falling on his sword trying to blast Kennedy Nzechukwu out in a glorious first-round debut, Ulberg reverted to a hyper-defensive, conservative approach against Fabio Cherant. Nchukwi is far more consistent, applying constant pressure and owning a solid enough chin to remain threatening late.
Result: Ulberg def. Nchukwi // TKO (punches) Round 1 1:15
Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
TJ Brown vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Featherweight (145)
TJ Brown (16-8)
Hardly a defensive savant, TJ Brown has recently tapped into a vastly improved offensive striking game that plays into equally aggressive wrestling chops. Is Brown wily enough to scramble out of Nuerdanbieke’s relentless takedowns? It’s tough to say for certain, especially as both men are likely to succeed with takedowns at various points.
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (36-10)
Nuerdanbieke is vastly experienced, even when considering the less than stellar opposition of regional Chinese MMA. Even with so many miles on the body, Nuerdanbieke tends to make many mistakes on the mat. Not to the extent that Brown will catch him in a submission, but certainly to offer routes for Brown to get back to his feet.
Predicted Result: Brown Decision
Nuerdanbieke is vastly experienced, even when considering the less than stellar opposition of regional Chinese MMA. With both men set to succeed with takedowns at various points, it’s Nuerdanbieke’s proclivity for mistakes that may swing this fight. Nuerdanbieke is more likely to offer up routes for Brown to get back to his feet, rather than the flip scenario.
Result: Nuerdanbieke def. Brown // Decision (UD – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
Raulian Paiva vs Sergey Morozov
Bantamweight (135)
Raulian Paiva (21-4)
A sharp counter-puncher, strong counter wrestler and a tough challenge to put away for any fighter, Raulian Paiva deserves a lot of credit. Athletically hampered, Paiva’s pressure on the feet could unravel Morozov in a similar fashion as Douglas Silva de Andrade.
Sergey Morozov (17-5)
Morozov probably won’t ever crack into the top ten of a stacked Bantamweight division, but the pop to his punches brings decent entertainment. The Kazakh fighter can fold under pressure, but against a slow starter in Paiva, Morozov should be able to lay down a clinic in the opening round. Whether Paiva survives the first round, the Brazilian’s wrestling could throw a sizeable spanner in the work for Morozov.
Predicted Result: Paiva Decision
The Kazakh fighter can fold under pressure, but against a slow starter in Paiva, Morozov should be able to lay down a clinic in the opening round. Whether Paiva survives the first round, the Brazilian’s wrestling could throw a sizeable spanner in the work for Morozov.
Result: Morozov def. Paiva // Decision (UD – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
Cody Durden vs JP Buys
Flyweight (125)
Cody Durden (12-4-1)
Two solid enough wrestlers lock horns. Durden carries far more power in his hands than his South African counterpart, but there is also reason to believe that Durden walks straight into a takedown. Sound decision-making doesn’t rank highly in Durden’s skillset.
JP Buys (9-4)
Buys may be a 0-2 (0-3 if you count his business outside of the octagon), but he is an entertaining ball of energy. Young Savage lacks the killer submission chops to rise in the UFC, but he is a surprisingly compact wrestler and has an athletic platform to build off. Going with the heart on this one.
Predicted Result: Buys Decision
Young Savage lacks the killer submission chops to rise in the UFC, but he is a surprisingly compact wrestler and has an athletic platform to build off. My brain is telling me that Durden’s heavier hands start to make a difference deep into the fight. Going with my heart on this one and siding with the entertainer.
Result: Durden def. Buys // TKO (punches) Round 1 1:08
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Mario Bautista vs Brian Kelleher
Bantamweight (135)
Mario Bautista (9-2)
Eh. Not wild about this fight. Brian Kelleher is more useful as a high-level gatekeeper for the top fifteen. Bautista is a very slick grappler on the mat, but he is easily dragged into firefights on the feet. Bautista lacks the speed or tools to deal with Kelleher’s educated short exchanges. Time to switch on the ol’ noggin.
Brian Kelleher (24-13)
As a huge fan of Brian Kelleher, it seems rather wasteful of the UFC to drop his opposition quality so drastically. This isn’t a total gimme, Kelleher has a habit of walking into submissions. It just feels like this fight will be spent on the feet, of which Kelleher has a huge technical advantage – particularly his controlled pace.
Predicted Result: Kelleher TKO Round 2
As a huge fan of Brian Kelleher, it seems rather wasteful of the UFC to drop his opposition quality so drastically. This isn’t a total gimme, Kelleher has a habit of walking into submissions and Bautista is a very underrated grappler. It just feels like this fight will be spent on the feet, of which Kelleher has a huge technical advantage.
Result: Bautista def. Kelleher // Submission (rear-naked choke) Round 1 2:27
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Jinh Yu Frey vs Vanessa Demopoulos
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Jinh Yu Frey (11-6)
Even on a two-fight streak, has the time run out for Jinh Yu Frey to make a run towards the title. Thirty-seven years old in a division often dominated by athletic specimens, the American wrestler is already undersized as an overblown Atomweight. Her striking seemed to have refined against Ashley Yoder, but Yoder has been a corpse for much of her career twilight.
Vanessa Demopoulos (7-4)
Lil Monster is a high-octane fighter with a fun arsenal of submissions but her style is tailor-made for a win-one lose-one career. Far too small for Strawweight, Frey should be able to secure early takedowns at will and hold Demopoulos for record control time.
Predicted Result: Frey Decision
Lil Monster is a high-octane fighter with a fun arsenal of submissions but her style is tailor-made for a win-one lose-one career. Far too small for Strawweight, Frey should be able to secure early takedowns at will and hold Demopoulos for record control time.
Result: Demopoulos def. Frey // Decision (SD – 28-29, 29-28, 30-27)
Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
Prediction Accuracy
UFC Vegas 57
Winner: 4/12
Method: 6/12
Round: 6/12
2022 MMA Season
Winner: 162/253
Method: 126/253
Round: 111/253
MMA Overall
Winner: 658/1045
Method: 488/1045
Round: 435/1045
Takeaway comments: JP Buys really did just leave the UFC winless and wifeless.
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