UFC Austin Predictions: Kattar vs Emmett
Pintsized Background
The UFC returns to Austin, Texas this Saturday with an incredibly intriguing main event. Can the long, technical boxing of Calvin Kattar keep the immense power of Josh Emmett on the end of his jab? Additionally, Joe Lauzon and Donald Cerrone lock horns in the co-main that would ideally be a double-feature swansong after two equally long and arduous careers.
Where/When is UFC Austin taking place: Moody Center. Austin, USA.
What time does UFC Austin start: 🇬🇧 UK: 9pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 4pm
What channel is UFC Austin on: 🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
- 🚀 Preview: UFC 275 Predictions: Teixeira vs Prochazka
- 🥊 PI’s Recommended Fight: Glover Teixeira vs Jiri Prochazka
Travel down the Pintsized rabbit hole:
- 📊 Statistics: MMA Predictions Results: January 2022
- 📺 YouTube: Pintsized Channel
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UFC Austin Picks & Odds
| UFC Austin Fights & Odds | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Kattar (-235) J. Emmett (+190) | Kattar | TKO | 4 |
| D. Cerrone (-160) J. Lauzon (+140) | Cerrone | TKO | 3 |
| K. Holland (-275) T. Means (+220) | Holland | Decision | / |
| A. Duraev (-220) J. Buckley (+180) | Buckley | TKO | 1 |
| D. Ismagulov (-155) G. Kutateladze (+135) | Ismagulov | Decision | / |
| G. Rodrigues (-170) J. Marques (+150) | Marques | Decision | / |
| A. Yanez (-320) T. Kelley (+250) | Yanez | TKO | 3 |
| J. Jasudavicius (-240) N. Silva (+195) | Jasudavicius | Decision | / |
| C. McGee (-120) J. Wells (+100) | McGee | Decision | / |
| D. Chavez (+235) R. Ramos (-300) | Ramos | Decision | / |
| GD. Paula (-265) Maria Oliveira (+215) | De Paula | Decision | / |
UFC Austin: Main Event
Calvin Kattar vs Josh Emmett
Featherweight (145)
Calvin Kattar (23-5)
For all the talk about Josh Emmett’s nuclear power in the build-up to the main event, many are overlooking the Bostonian’s fabulous chin. Chikadze, Stephens and Burgos all ran out of gas trying to break Kattar physically or mentally. If you can’t finish Kattar, you’re gonna have to maintain an exceptional volume.
More worrying for Team Alpha Male fans, fans seem to have forgotten the true story of Michael Johnson vs Josh Emmett. For nigh-three rounds, an over-the-hill Johnson laid down a striking clinic (until he was slept by that punch). Kattar will be able to set the pace with his jab and consistently lead the exchanges.
Emmett’s wrestling could throw a spanner in the work. Unfortunately, Emmett’s zero attempted takedowns most recently against Dan Ige is a worrying sign of a fighter who has fallen in love with his hands. It also doesn’t help that Emmett nailed eight takedowns against Scott Holtzman that has skewed his wrestling stats since.
Josh Emmett (17-2)
Emmett can certainly handle himself on the feet. While the thirty-seven-year-old doesn’t have the technical offensive nuance that Kattar offers, there are still interesting layers to Emmett’s striking. Re-watch the Johnson KO. After fourteen minutes of receiving a spanking, Emmett had the patience to fake a takedown before catching Johnson as he slipped to the right.
Volume just seems to be the killer in this fight. That isn’t to say that Emmett is at risk of gassing – for a fighter nearing his forties, his conditioning is impeccable. Rather, Kattar typically opens and closes exchanges. Emmett has never shown slick enough counterpunching chops to commit and punish Kattar in 50/50 trades.
Call me Mystic Pint, but I foresee Kattar getting to work with leg kicks early. Emmett’s knee injury was a weak spot that Burgos failed to capitalise upon. With such consistent danger aimed at Emmett’s head, the Bostonian can mask leg kicks early that will pay dividends in the championship rounds.
Predicted Result: Kattar TKO Round 4
Call me Mystic Pint, but I foresee Kattar getting to work with leg kicks early. Emmett’s knee injury was a weak spot that Shane Burgos failed to capitalise upon. With such consistent danger aimed at Emmett’s head, the Bostonian can mask leg kicks early that will pay dividends in the championship rounds.
You can never quite count out Josh Emmett’s power. Yet, it is worrisome that Chikadze, Stephens and Burgos all ran out of gas trying to break Kattar. If you can’t finish Kattar, you’re gonna have to maintain an exceptional volume over five rounds. There is more nuance to Emmett’s striking than powerful overhands, but with a stripped-down wrestling threat over recent fights, it feels like Kattar is primed to out-work an ageing opponent.
Result: Emmett def. Kattar // Decision (split – 47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
UFC Austin: Co-Main Event
Donald Cerrone vs Joe Lauzon
Lightweight (155)
Donald Cerrone (36-16)
Cerrone’s first-round dismantling at the hands of Alex Morono was very worrying. Granted, Cowboy has never been a fast starter, but he is increasingly incapable of building momentum. Lauzon is an early-round threat that continues to carry power, indicating that Cerrone could well be iced in the first round for the third time in six fights. Unable to match the pace of opponents, Cerrone lacks the threat of his famous kicks. Still, there remains a high level of TDD and criminally underrated grappling skillset in his game.
Joe Lauzon (28-15)
J-Lau remains a coin-flip fighter in his twilight. Capable of flying out of the blocks and taking an opponent’s head off, Lauzon’s chin has also deteriorated to a worrying extent that 50/50 exchanges aren’t always the best option. Cerrone hates early pressure, a weakness that Lauzon’s aggressive blitzes will surely exploit. It’s been nearly 3 years since we’ve seen Lauzon in the octagon, however, and I dread to gauge the physical decline.
Predicted Result: Cerrone TKO Round 3
Lauzon for the first-round KO has to be the safest call. Despite my brain screaming at my foolishness, I cannot look past Lauzon’s total chin deterioration, inactivity or ‘cramps’ before the ceremonial weigh-in. Style-wise, Cerrone’s slow starts and Lauzon’s all-out aggression suggest an early night for Cowboy. For whatever reason, I sense that Cerrone’s wrestling and TDD could throw a spanner in the works and buy enough time for the veteran to make the necessary reads.
Result: 🚫 FIGHT CANCELLED (Lauzon Knee Injury) 🚫
UFC Austin: Main Card
Tim Means vs Kevin Holland
Welterweight (170)
Tim Means (32-12-1)
Dirty Bird is one of the most exciting veterans on the roster. Don’t be fooled by a three-fight decision streak, Means has comfortably out-struck his opponents on the outside and cut up opponents with brutal elbows in the clinch. As a savvy vet, Means could find early success if Holland starts as inpatient as he did against Oliveira. Means fully knows his pace and has patched over his waning durability with increased emphasis on his straight shots.
Kevin Holland (22-7)
We’re unlikely to see Kevin Holland get ragdolled in the clinch. Holland’s ground game may be questionable, but his long limbs make him a constant nuisance grappling on the feet. A thoroughly accurate counter-puncher, Holland’s athletic edge will lend itself to superiority on the outside. Means could tie up Holland against the cage and offer enough to scrape the rounds, but it is just as likely that Holland wobbles Means.
Predicted Result: Holland Decision
As a savvy vet, Means could find early success if Holland starts as inpatient as he did against Oliveira. Means fully knows his pace and has patched over his waning durability with increased emphasis on his straight shots. Unfortunately for Means, Holland’s athletic edge will lend itself to sharp counter punches. Sure, de. Means could tie up Holland against the cage and offer enough to scrape the rounds, but it is just as likely that Holland wobbles Means.
Result: Holland def. Means // Submission (D’Arce choke) Round 2 1:28
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Joaquin Buckley vs Albert Duraev
Middleweight (185)
Joaquin Buckley (14-4)
After dropping the KO of the year in 2020, Joaquin Buckley has barely fought. It may seem harsh as New Mansa has accrued a 3-1 record since destroying Impa Kasanganay, but a lack of mic skills has coupled with the UFC hoping one viral clip carries Buckley to a house-brand name. Has the UFC finally given up with striker-vs-striker favourable match-ups for Buckley? More likely, Duraev’s wrestling was worrisome at best in his debut, while his striking is laughable.
Albert Duraev (15-3)
It would be foolish to write off Duraev claiming an early submission. Buckley’s TDD has holes and the American’s tendency to throw full-blooded each shot often leaves him open to takedowns. Still, even with Buckley’s one-note speed, Duraev is too hittable not to suffer before getting this to the mat.
Predicted Result: Buckley TKO Round 1
It would be foolish to write off Duraev claiming an early submission. Buckley’s TDD has holes and the American’s tendency to throw full-blooded each shot often leaves him open to takedowns. Still, even with Buckley’s one-note speed, Duraev is too hittable not to suffer before getting this to the mat. A fun match-up regardless.
Result: Buckley def. Duraev // TKO (doctor stoppage) Round 2 5:00
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ❌
Damir Ismagulov vs Guram Kutateladze
Lightweight (155)
Damir Ismagulov (23-1)
Now we’re talking about a hell of a decision fighter with Ismagulov sitting on a 7-fight decision streak (bar one TKO injury). In all fairness to the Kazakh fighter, he has faced some stern tests in the UFC so far, sitting on the scalps of Joel Alvarez and Thiago Moises. A fabulous decision-maker, it seems to have been a double-edged sword as Ismagulov rarely risks searching for a finish. Why bother when you possess a great jab in a sport that often ignores the most important foundation block?
Guram Kutateladze (12-2)
Kutateladze managed to neutralise the extremely well-rounded skillset of Mateusz Gamrot on late notice. Slick defensive grappling on the mat indicates that Kutateladze could succeed at Lightweight. Still, the Georgian’s mobility seems incapable of maintaining the necessary distance from Ismagulov’s wrestling threat.
Predicted Result: Ismagulov Decision
A fabulous decision-maker, it seems to have been a double-edged sword as Ismagulov rarely risks searching for a finish. Why bother when you possess a fantastic jab, though? Kutateladze managed to neutralise the extremely well-rounded skillset of Mateusz Gamrot on late notice, but there wasn’t much evidenced in the way of aggression or offensive tools.
Result: Ismagulov def. Kutateladze // Decision (split – 28-29, 29-28, 30-27)
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
Julian Marquez vs Gregory Rodrigues
Middleweight (185)
Julian Marquez (9-2)
If it ain’t the Cuban Missle Crisis. The same man who single-handedly fumbled the bag with Miley Cyrus. Mid-2021, it seemed like Marquez was set for mega hype as he continued his long finishing streak. Heavy-handed, Marques is a work in progress regarding technicals on the feet, but his short reach lends itself to his aggressive brawling on the inside anyway. Someone will punish Marquez’s naked chin, whether Rodrigues owns fast enough hands to punish it is questionable.
Gregory Rodrigues (11-4)
I like Robocop but we have seen the Brazilian lose early or gas late. Rodrigues could certainly hit reactive takedowns and hold position to stall out the opening rounds, but he seems incapable of fighting the final round with anything but 5% left in the gas tank. I ain’t picking against my boy, though.
Predicted Result: Marques Decision
I like Robocop but we have seen the Brazilian lose early or gas late. Rodrigues could certainly hit reactive takedowns and hold position to stall out the opening rounds, but he also did just drop a split decision to Armen Petrosyan. Marques is a work in progress regarding technicals on the feet, but his short reach lends itself to his aggressive brawling on the inside.
Result: Rodrigues def. Marquez // KO (punches) Round 1 3:18
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
UFC Austin: Preliminary Card
Adrian Yanez vs Tony Kelley
Bantamweight (135)
Adrian Yanez (15-3)
Decision split or not, Davey Grant is a tough nut to crack and by far the most impressive name on Yanez’s record. The Texan was pushed to an unnaturally high pace, with the extra volume sapping some of the cleaner boxing work that we have come to expect of the prospect. There’s no doubting Yanez’s power or his insane bodywork, but I imagine it’ll be a while before we see him face a jabber again, after struggling so hard early against Randy Costa.
Tony Kelley (8-2)
Being racist about an opponent? Majority of fans largely silent. Missing weight? Oh, bucko, you’ve messed up now. Kelley thoroughly dominated Randy Costa from the get-go, not allowing the first-round knockout menace to get out of the blocks. Stalling grappling on the feet belies his entertaining high-risk submission game in the scrambles. Oh yeah, I almost forgot, this is the same dude that drove across a country during the pandemic rather than wear a mask for a flight.
Predicted Result: Yanez TKO Round 3
Kelley thoroughly dominated Randy Costa from the get-go, not allowing the first-round knockout menace to get out of the blocks. Yanez’s mature counter-striking and patience under aggression, however, seem primed to take out Kelley’s pace. Yanez can be thrown off his game by superior length, but Kelley doesn’t own an effective enough jab to make Yanez uncomfortable.
Result: Yanez def. Kelley // TKO (punches) Round 1 3:49
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ❌
Jeremiah Wells vs Court McGee
Welterweight (170)
Jeremiah Wells (10-2-1)
Two fights into his UFC career, and the jury is not yet out on Jeremiah Wells. Filling in an ancient Warlley Alves does wonders for the highlight reel, but a similarly early submission over the unknown Blood Diamond does just as little for meaningful analysis. Preferring power over volume, Wells has to be backing his natural gifts to carry him on a whistle-stop UFC tour. Don’t forget, this is a thirty-five-year-old spring chicken.
Court McGee (21-10)
Watching Court McGee’s mini redemption arc has been a joy to watch. The thirty-seven-year-old knows what his game is and sets about his work with rare consistent integrity. Wells will have to carry serious power if he wants to send The Crusher to sleep. There is no doubt that McGee will come on strong in the final round. For the opening two, I’m siding with McGee to break Wells with never-ending volume or takedown attempts.
Predicted Result: McGee Decision
McGee’s veteran pressure, built upon volume and relentless takedown attempts, is a threat that Wells has yet to face in his career. Wells will have to carry serious power if he wants to send The Crusher to sleep. Unless Father Time has finally put McGee under his spell, this is the type of fight designed for McGee to clean the scorecards.
Result: Wells def. McGee // KO (punch) Round 1 1:34
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Natalie Silva
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Jasmine Jasudavicius (7-1)
Jasudavicius, for all the concerns I had over her debut, managed to comfortably banish Kay Hansen to Only Fans. A huge frame for Flyweight, Jasudavicius is a beast in the clinch and can comfortably bully opponents into top position. Her striking was surprisingly crisp too, though it would be nice to see her use her length more effectively.
Natalie Silva (12-5-1)
Natalie Silva doesn’t appear to have the skillset needed to overcome Jasudavicius. The Brazilian prefers a physical fight, using her natural size to strong-arm her way to the mat. As is the case with most Women’s Brazilian fighters transitioning from regionals to the UFC, Silva’s record is padded with cans. Jasudavicius’ sole win in the UFC towers over the twelve wins that Silva has amassed.
Predicted Result: Jasudavicius Decision
A huge frame for Flyweight, Jasudavicius is a beast in the clinch and can comfortably bully opponents into top position. I was concerned about the Canadian’s striking before her debut, but her hands were surprisingly crisp en route to banishing Kay Hansen to Only Fans. Silva’s preferred style of physically bullying opponents will run into trouble against a naturally larger fighter.
Result: Silva def. Jasudavicius // Decision (UD – 30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
Gloria de Paula vs Maria Oliveira
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Gloria de Paula (6-4)
Athletically gifted, de Paula is an alright striker. I’m struggling to flow with praise for the inexperienced scrapper. Going striker for strike with Diana Belbita is a truly worrying sign, but at least there’s a level of defence to de Paula’s game.
Maria Oliveira (12-5)
Spider Girl may have the higher ceiling yet has been unfortunate not to find a middling step-up in her career. It has either been a Marina Rodriguez icing or a string of cans. If Oliveira cannot use her reach to dominate the range, Spider Girl is a far more unnatural striker and unravel when she whiffs at the air.
Predicted Result: De Paula Decision
Going striker for strike with Diana Belbita is a truly worrying sign, but at least there’s a level of defence to de Paula’s game. Oliveira, on the flip side, has to dominate the range with her reach or else she will unravel. A coin-flip between two inexperienced strikers.
Result: Oliveira def. de Paula // Decision (split – 28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
Danny Chavez vs Ricardo Ramos
Featherweight (145)
Danny Chavez (11-4-1)
Chavez was a regional fighter who was gifted a step up to the Big Leagues during the pandemic era. It was a surprising debut from the Columbian Warrior, showcasing a well-rounded skillset with four perfect takedowns and clean-ish striking. Ramos is known for the spectacular, but Chavez’s solid jab and leg kicks are more consistent weapons.
Ricardo Ramos (15-4)
Ricardo Ramos could still be a UFC sweetheart, the Brazilian just needs a couple of favourable match-ups. Charles Oliveira-esque, if you will. The twenty-six-year-old carries ferocious power, exceptional athleticism and a stunning array of kicks. That isn’t to ignore Ramos’ strong wrestling chops, but Chavez has proven a tricky customer to takedown.
Predicted Result: Ramos Decision
Ramos is known for the spectacular, but Chavez’s solid jab and leg kicks are more consistent weapons. Ramos’ strong wrestling chops will struggle to shine as Chavez has proven a tricky customer to takedown during his UFC stint. If Chavez was more willing to lead the fight, he could deny Ramos the space to pull off his array of spectacular spinning attacks. Unfortunately for the Columbian Warrior, he doesn’t seem capable of laying down an uncomfortable pace on the Brazilian.
Result: Ramos def. Chavez // KO (spinning back elbow) Round 1 1:12
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Cody Stamann vs Eddie Wineland
Bantamweight (135)
Cody Stamann (19-5-1)
On a three-fight slide, you’d have been forgiven for assuming that Stamann would have been cut. Spartan has long been set as the ‘gatekeeper’ of Bantamweight, with his athletic gifts largely negated by his T-Rex reach. While it is very unlikely that Stamann can knock out a weathered Wineland, Stamann’s wrestling should be just enough to overcome a once impressive TDD.
Eddie Wineland (24-15-1)
It would be a crying shame if Eddie Wineland is remembered for his highlight-reel KO to Sean O’Malley. Wineland used to be a fleet-footed, tricksy counter-puncher. Without the spring to his step, Wineland is too easily caught as he squares onto his shots. There’s still pop to Wineland’s punches, but Stamann has never shown chin issues.
Predicted Result: Stamann Decision
Wineland used to be a fleet-footed, tricksy counter-puncher. Without the spring to his step, Wineland is too easily caught squared-on. There’s still pop to Wineland’s punches, but Stamann has never shown chin issues and has enough of an athletic edge to overcome a once impressive TDD.
Result: Stamann def. WIneland // TKO (punches) Round 1 0:59
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Kyle Daukaus vs Roman Dolidze
Middleweight (185)
Kyle Daukaus (11-2)
Daukaus has a canny knack for making fights swelteringly uncomfortable for opponents. An irritating range on the feet owing to his 6’3″ frame, Daukaus’ greatest strength is chaining his boxing with clinches and takedowns.
Roman Dolidze (9-1)
Dolidze is a bullying front-foot striker and enough of a physical specimen to cause issues for Daukaus. Technically, the two are planets apart, but Daukaus does tend to fall apart if any area of his well-rounded skill set is not firing.
Predicted Result: Daukaus Decision
Technically, the two are planets apart, but Daukaus does tend to fall apart if any area of his well-rounded skill set is not firing. As seen in the Trevin Giles fight, pressure can break Dolidze, and Daukaus has a canny knack for making fights swelteringly uncomfortable for opponents.
Result: Dolidze def. Daukaus // KO (knee and punches) Round 1 1:13
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Phil Hawes vs Deron Winn
Middleweight (185)
Phil Hawes (11-3)
Hawes did the classic, ‘piece apart Chris Curtis until you’re slept by a peach of a counterpunch’. Megatron carries beastly power and can be a bully from top control, but he is best set to have entertaining scraps outside of the rankings for a while.
Deron Winn (7-2)
A powerful wrestler, Deron Winn is shot in the foot by nature itself due to his slight frame. Hawes can slow which will allow Winn to impose his ground game, but it depends on how much punishment Winn eats in the interim.
Predicted Result: Hawes Decision
Megatron carries beastly power and can be a bully from top control, but he is best set to have entertaining scraps outside of the rankings for a while. Both men tend to slow down the stretch, but a sloppier fight does offer a chance for Winn to impose his ground game. Winn lacks the striking threat needed to keep Hawes gun-shy.
Result: Hawes def. Winn // TKO (elbows) Round 2 4:25
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Prediction Accuracy
UFC Austin
Winner: 7/13
Method: 5/13
Round: 3/13
2022 MMA Season
Winner: 158/241
Method: 120/241
Round: 105/241
MMA Overall
Winner: 654/1033
Method: 482/1033
Round: 429/1033
Takeaway comments: Time to give Ricardo Ramos a proper laid-out path from now on.
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