UFC Vegas 61 Main Card Predictions, Odds and Results: Dern vs Yan
UFC Vegas 61 Main Card Pintsized Background
So has Mark Zuckerberg bought out the UFC Apex or what? Come on MMA journalists, pokes stick, do something for once. Regardless, UFC Vegas 61 is a strange melting pot of bouts.
In the UFC Vegas 61 Main Event, Mackenzie Dern’s highly touted BJJ skills are pitted against the rough’n’ready scrapper Xiaonan Yan. Women’s Strawweight is rarely the most entertaining division, but a headliner sure helps tick boxes for the suits. Meanwhile, the Co-Main Event featuring Randy Brown and Francisco Trinaldo could well see the bloody end of the wily old veteran.
Where/When is UFC Vegas 61 Main Card taking place:
October 1, 2022. UFC Apex. Nevada, United States.
What time does UFC Vegas 61 Main Card start:
🇬🇧 UK: 12pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 7pm
What channel is UFC Vegas 61 Main Card on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
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💰 PI’s Recommended Fight: Gregory Rodrigues vs Chidi Njokuani
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UFC Vegas 61 Main Card Picks & Odds
| UFC Vegas 61 Main Card Fights & Odds | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern (-230) Xiaonan Yan (+195) | Dern | Submission | 2 |
| Randy Brown (-320) Francisco Trinaldo (+265) | Brown | Decision | / |
| Raoni Barcelos (-240) Trevin Jones (+200) | Barcelos | Decision | / |
| Sodiq Yusuff (-1150) Don Shainis (+750) | Yusuff | TKO | 2 |
| John Castaneda (-180) Daniel Santos (+155) | Castaneda | Decision | / |
| Mike Davis (-190) Viacheslav Borschev (+160) | Borschev | Decision | / |
UFC Vegas 61: Main Event
Mackenzie Dern vs Xiaonan Yan
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Mackenzie Dern (12-2)
There is a strong feeling amongst analysts that Mackenzie Dern hit her ceiling against Marina Rodrigues. It would be foolish to deny Dern has exceptionally impressive submission chops on the ground. Without the vehicle of solid wrestling to chase her ideal fight, however, will lead to Dern being picked apart on the feet. The 29-year-old owns a phenomenal chin and has grown in confidence in her ability to pressure opponents, yet there remains an unbudgeable stiffness to her striking. Yan was dismantled by Carla Esparza on the mat, and while the technical wrestling gap is comical to Dern, the latter’s size could poke similar holes in Yan’s TDD.
Xiaonan Yan (15-3)
Yan may have lost to Marina Rodriguez on the scorecards, but there is certainly an argument that could be had which saw the Team Alpha Male fighter’s hand raised. Yan isn’t the next coming of Anderson Silva, but against Dern, Yan’s footwork and distance control will dance circles around Dern. Yan would level the playing field somewhat if she opts to strike in the pocket – bringing in Dern’s natural power and closing the gap to grapple. Can Yan box the ears of the wildly aggressive Dern for five rounds? Highly unlikely.
Dern vs Yan Prediction: Dern Submission Round 2
Yan isn’t the next coming of Anderson Silva, but against Dern, Yan’s footwork and distance control can dance circles around her opponent. While Dern owns a phenomenal chin and has grown in confidence in her ability to pressure opponents, there remains an unbudgeable stiffness to her striking. Regardless, the big question remains whether Yan can keep the wildly aggressive Dern on the outside for five rounds. It seems highly unlikely, and if Dern somehow finds her way to the mat, her exceptional submission chops will find the win.
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UFC Vegas 61: Co-Main Event
Randy Brown vs Francisco Trinaldo
Welterweight (170)
Randy Brown (15-4)
A fantastic match-up. For all the physical gifts that Rudeboy owns, the 6’3″ fighter seems to only put all of his weapons together for short 30-second bursts every so often. Brown can box off his jab, string together combinations in the pocket and use his weight smartly in the clinch – but there is the ‘Leon Edwards-esque’ level of comfort that sees Brown switch off just as soon. Against the thoroughly consistent Francisco Trinaldo, who will offer few defensive openings and carries huge power on the counter – this fight could either be a snoozefest or back-and-forth knockdown affair based on the number of mistakes that Brown makes.
Francisco Trinaldo (28-8)
If Brown decides to sit on his jab and dictate a solid pace, Trinaldo lacks the weapons to work his way on the inside as a forty-four-year-old. At the same time, Brown regularly manages to let his opponents back in and make it competitive. I imagine Trinaldo’s massive overhands will cause some confusion on the scorecards, but Brown’s pace and volume to steal it.
Brown vs Trinaldo Prediction: Brown Decision
If Brown decides to sit on his jab and dictate a solid pace, Trinaldo lacks the weapons to work his way on the inside as a forty-four-year-old. At the same time, Brown regularly manages to let his opponents back in and make it competitive. Trinaldo, if anything, is thoroughly consistent as a powerful counter-puncher that offers few defensive holes. I imagine Trinaldo’s massive overhands will cause some confusion on the scorecards, but Brown’s pace and volume to steal it.
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UFC Vegas 61: Main Card
Raoni Barcelos vs Trevin Jones
Bantamweight (135)
Raoni Barcelos (16-3)
Is Raoni Barcelos the best fighter on a two-fight slide? The Brazilian showed his age against Victor Henry last time out, but he remains a buttery smooth striker. It’s unlikely Barcelos will ever receive the right match-making for a career twilight title push, but he remains a top wrestler who prefers to dance on the feet. Poetry in motion.
Trevin Jones (13-8)
Jones was expected to offer nothing than a W for Timur Valiev when he was called up to the UFC in late 2020. The journeyman has delivered entertainment in his four-fight stretch and has made the most of his athletic gifts. The inability to tie together his plus power and slick BJJ into consistent performances, or at least, consistent round-taking – has seen him linger as a gatekeeper.
Barcelos vs Jones Prediction: Barcelos Decision
It’s unlikely Barcelos will ever receive the right match-making for a career twilight title push, but he remains a top wrestler who prefers to dance on the feet. While the Brazilian showed his age last time out against Victor Henry, Trevin Jones’ inability to tie together his plus power and slick BJJ leaves me favouring the far more consistent Barcelos. Although Jones will likely tag Barcelos at some point over the fight, it’s too difficult to back another shock stoppage ala Timur Valiev.
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Sodiq Yusuff vs Don Shainis
Featherweight (145)
Sodiq Yusuff (12-2)
The UFC appears unsure of how to push Sodiq Yusuff. After suffering a loss in the well-matched prospect bout against Arnold Allen, the Nigerian has lingered amongst the unranked Featherweights. To go from Giga Chikadze to Don Shainis is a strange call from the match-maker, albeit, Yusuff likely wants another fight to close out the year. Yusuff’s TDD could be punished by Shainis, but going off the UFC debutant’s recent fights, this is likely to devolve into a firefight from the opening bell.
Don Shainis (12-3)
Shainis will bring a hella entertaining style to the octagon. Despite the American’s base being wrestling, a three-fight first-round KO streak highlights the risk-first approach that underlines Shainis’ game. Swarming Yusuff with bombs could catch the Nigerian unaware early, but it will be heavily punished down the stretch if unsuccessful.
Yusuff vs Shainis Prediction: Yusuff TKO Round 2
Shainis will bring a hella entertaining style to the octagon. Despite the American’s base being wrestling, a three-fight first-round KO streak highlights the risk-first approach that underlines Shainis’ game. As such, the holes in Yusuff’s TDD will likely remain untested in this bout. Swarming Yusuff with bombs could catch the Nigerian unaware early, but it will be heavily punished down the stretch if unsuccessful.
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John Castaneda vs Daniel Santos
Catchweight (140)
John Castaneda (19-5)
After a gutsy loss to Nathaniel Wood, Castaneda has made the most of his time in the UFC with stoppages over Eddie Wineland and Miles John. Neither represents the top names in the Bantamweight landscape, but Sexi Mexi can only make the most of what is offered by the UFC. Key to Castaneda’s success is his well-rounded skillset and savvy decision-making that sees him stripping opponents of their best weapons.
Daniel Santos (9-2)
Debut jitters or not, Santos’ damp squib of performance against Julio Arce has led to many writing off the once exciting regional prospect. Castaneda could chase takedowns early and control the fight early, but the heart demands a messy scrap on the feet. Not that Santos fights stupidly, his aggression and power had just not yet an immovable force such as Julio Arce.
Castaneda vs Santos Prediction: Castaneda Decision
Key to Castaneda’s success is his well-rounded skillset and savvy decision-making that sees him stripping opponents of their best weapons. As such, Sexi Mexi could chase takedowns early and control the fight early, but the heart demands a messy scrap on the feet. Not that Santos fights stupidly, his aggression and power had just not yet an immovable force such as Julio Arce.
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Mike Davis vs Viachelslav Borshchev
Lightweight (155)
Mike Davis (9-2)
It has been only two years since we last saw Mike Davis – that is criminal. Sure, Davies is at fault for pulling out of the Jai Herbert fight, but damn if Beast Boy hasn’t failed epically to build on the hype after taking Mason Jones’ 0. Davis is a shrewd enough fighter to know when to wrestle, however, he certainly has no aversion to a slugfest. Against Slava Clause, Davis will have to be acutely aware of leaving his body open against the slick kickboxer.
Viacheslav Borschev (6-2)
Marc Diakiese may have laid down a disgustingly dull gameplan against Borschev, but the Brit exposed Borschev’s stark vulnerabilities on the mat. Borschev is far tighter on the outside than Davis and could snipe away against his larger foe who tends to tire fairly early into fights. Considering that Davis eats near to seven significant strikes per minute, Borshchev may be able to open up in a manner he was unable to against Dakota Bush and Marc Diakiese.
Davies vs Borshchev Prediction: Borschev Decision
Davis is a shrewd enough fighter to know when to wrestle, however, he certainly has no aversion to a slugfest. Despite the dullness of Marc Diakiese’s performance, the Brit sure did expose Borschev’s stark vulnerabilities on the mat. Regardless, Slava Claus has the opportunity to open up into his more natural kickboxing game against an opponent who eats near to seven significant strikes per minute.
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