UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega Predictions & Results
Pintsized Background
Finally, a numbered event with decent fights that signify a marked move away from the dross we’ve been handed over the past couple of weeks. Of course, the UFC has padded the prelims to the highest heavens, but that’s to be expected for PPV events. Volkanovski vs Ortega is an extremely intriguing fight, stylistically and divisionally, and is worthy of all the attention alone. Somehow though time needs to be found to discuss Shevchenko’s planned murder over Lauren Murphy, Nick Diaz’s return and weight issues, and Dan Hooker finally being green-lit to fight.
Failed to catch the action from the last UFC? No worries. Peep our preview from las week via UFC: Smith vs Spann Predictions. Prefer a review of the event to jog the memory? Read MAFB: UFC Fight Night 192.
Unconvinced by Pintsized’s mystical predicting powers? Take a look at our prediction success last month detailed in UFC Predictions Results: August 2021.
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega
Main Event
Alexander Volkanovski (22-1) vs Brian Ortega (15-1)
Featherweight (145)
UFC Featherweight Championship
Alexander Volkanovski
A consummate game-planner, Volkanovski adhered to two gameplans to successfully take away Max Holloway’s famed jab. Short explosive bursts of 2-3 strikes highlight Volk’s approach, as the Aussie slowly ramps up the pressure and adds small incremental layers to the attacks. Ortega never physically broke to Max Holloway’s hellacious volume, but mentally T-City appeared a broken man by the championship rounds. Can Ortega did as deep as he managed during his first title fight? TKZ was an impressive scalp, but Ortega only had to fight a two-round bout as he effectively neutralised his opponent after a powerful elbow.
Although their respective styles are planets away, Volk could opt for a grinding clinch approach that found him great success against Aldo. Rather than trade at a mid-range, even with a 2″ reach on Ortega, Volk could choose to utilise his powerful stocky base to keep Ortega pinned against the fence and draw out an ugly, unceremonious victory. Ortega’s extra height in the clinch may be the main deterrent for such a strategy, but it would be far more successful than trading on the outside.
There is also a wrestling angle to speak of, but knowing the Aussie’s penchant for studying tape, they will likely be doing everything to keep out of Brian Ortega’s guard. It isn’t worth switching off for a second and falling into a triangle, even when considering Volk’s powerful ground and pound. The safe call would be to bank on Volk out-gritting, out-enduring Ortega and fighting the perfect fight. One of the best attributes a champion can have is a willingness to disregard fans and fight aesthetics. To drop the ego and fight to a steady if ugly gameplan will see Volk hold onto his belt for a long time.
Brian Ortega
A powerful and creative striker, it is difficult for opponents to get a read on his next move. Where Ortega could improve, however, is building upon his single-strike selection. Off the back of his feints (often single-leg feints), Ortega needs to piece together combinations after catching opponents reacting to his jabs. T-City, instead, opts to use his mental warfare to manoeuvre opponents in the octagon and keep his position off the cage. Hooking off the jab is an excellent addition that was evident against TKZ, but there was no follow-up power shot.
Volk’s love of level-changing, as the smaller fighter always looking to slip under incoming jabs to close the distance, may see him caught hard by Ortega. Ortega is excellent at intercepting level changes with elbows, timing uppercuts or jumping on guillotines. Of course, if Ortega misses his single counter, Volk can punish a stationary Ortega with a short 2-3 shot burst. Ortega has a career habit of dropping every round before he finds a finish – with a new-look post-Holloway Ortega, however, there isn’t enough tape to say he hasn’t changed his ways.
The main advantage Ortega will find is his chin. Volk is a powerful striker, but his style doesn’t push him towards stoppages unless he needs to match an opponent’s intensity (i.e. Chad Mendes). Ortega can utilise the full twenty-five minutes to find ‘that shot’ or ‘that submission’. Even the best game plans cannot plan for unpredictable, creative strikers for such an extended period.
Predicted Result: Volkanovski Decision
One of the best attributes a champion can have is a willingness to disregard fans and fight aesthetics. Volk has regularly shown his ability to drop his ego and fight to a steady if ugly game plan. Although their respective styles are planets away, Volk could opt for a grinding clinch approach that found him great success against Aldo. Rather than trade on the feet, even with a 2″ reach on Ortega, Volk could choose to utilise his powerful stocky base to keep Ortega pinned against the fence and draw out an ugly, unceremonious victory. That does increase the likelihood of the fight hitting the mat, however, and unnecessarily draws in the threat of Ortega’s submission chops.
The main advantage Ortega will find is his chin. Volk is a powerful striker, but his style doesn’t push him towards stoppages unless he needs to match an opponent’s intensity (i.e. Chad Mendes). Ortega can utilise the full twenty-five minutes to find ‘that shot’ or ‘that submission’. T-City’s career tendency to drop every round in his career before finding the finish leaves Volk the safer fighter to back, especially when considering the Aussie’s consistency in the octagon. An excellent fight that could easily open up an immediate rematch.
Result: Volkanovski def. Ortega // Decision (unanimous – 49-46, 50-45, 50-44)
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega
Co-Main Event
Valentina Shevchenko (21-3) vs Lauren Murphy (15-4)
Women’s Flyweight (125)
UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship
Valentina Shevchenko
The greatest compliment that can be paid to Shevchenko is critics were jumping on the single round that Jennifer Maia took off the champion. Of course, the greatest compliment would be to note that of all the women’s MMA champions of all time (so far) she seems like the most ‘complete’ human being – by far. Memes aside, Murphy will be the tamest opponent Shevchenko will face for the rest of her time at the UFC.
Shevchenko’s masterful control of distance will leave Murphy stranded at range. It is incredibly unlikely that Murphy has the technical prowess to pressure Valentina to the cage, leaving a typical point fighting bout that the Champ prefers. Rather, on the outside, Shevchenko can utilise angles to hit a slow opponent relatively free. If in the worst-case scenario, Shevchenko finds herself under the strong top control of Murphy, her defensive grappling is astounding. Maybe don’t expect a Jessica Eye-level highlight reel, but Shev’s kicking game will make an appearance on Saturday night.
Lauren Murphy
When a title is on the line, fans and critics often play up the threat of the underdog. Whether it’s the thrill of the David beating Goliath or a breath of fresh air in a stagnant division, but a thirty-eight-year-old Lauren Murphy isn’t the one to shake up Women’s Flyweight. A razor-thin split decision over Joanne Calderwood has propelled her towards a crack at ending Shevchenko’s reign. If that doesn’t ring alarm bells immediately, her physical inferiority on fight night will.
An unremarkable boxer with visible speed issues, Murphy drags herself to victory through durability and competent pocket boxing. That’s easy enough against dross like Mara Borella or Liliya Shakirova, but it was only three years ago that this approach came unstuck against Sijara Eubanks. Styles make fights, though, and Jennifer Maia did cause a couple of ripples of trouble for Shev. Physically strong, gritty fighters can find a crumb of success against Shev, but without the clinch game, Murphy will be lost.
Predicted Result: Shevchenko Submission Round 4
Shevchenko’s masterful control of distance will leave Murphy stranded at range. It is incredibly unlikely that Murphy has the technical prowess to pressure Valentina to the cage, leaving a typical point fighting bout that the Champ prefers. On the outside, Shevchenko can utilise angles to hit a dreadfully slow Murphy, relatively free. There is a small glimmer of hope for Murphy, who often drags herself to victory through durability and competent pocket boxing. Jennifer Maia caused a couple issues for Shev based on her physical prowess, and Murphy’s grit could see her replicate that success, but it just isn’t likely.
Result: Shevchenko def. Murphy // TKO (elbows and punches) Round 4 4:00
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ✔️
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UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega
Main Card
Robbie Lawler (28-15) vs Nick Diaz (26-9)
Middleweight (185)
Robbie Lawler
Rematch time, baby. A perfect nostalgia fight that somewhat stands head and shoulders above the spree of old man fights the UFC have been fashioning. Matt Brown vs Carlos Condit was fun, but that legends fight was for hardcore fans. Nate Diaz has kept the Diaz family name popular, reaching crazy heights after beating McGregor (despite coming in at 300lbs), and in regards to draw – it is almost like Nick Diaz has never left. While Nick and Robbie haven’t thrown a punch for several years (for differing reasons), that’s no reason to spoil the party atmosphere building around this match-up.
Former member of the Just Bleed club, Lawler’s decline over the last few years has been terrible to track. Sitting on a four-fight slide, Robbie has been decisively beaten by RDA, Colby Covington and Neil Magny. Surprisingly, rather than being stranged on the mat, Lawler’s greatest issue has been his inability to pull the trigger. Ruthless waited for an entire five rounds trying to time one knockout blow against Colby, leaving the MAGA-enthusiast tapping away with volume. It wasn’t that there weren’t opportunities to land on Colby, he was standing square in front of Lawler, but the common veteran plague has struck Rob. Sadly, there is no cure to an over-the-hill fighter unconfident and unwilling to back their power and chin in 50/50 trades.
Nick Diaz
Firstly, can Nick Diaz physically or mentally fight anymore? This is one of the easiest fights that Nick could be offered to step back into the sport, but this is off the back of a few years of hard-partying. A strange last-minute jump up to Middleweight, a doughy physique on the scales, and worrying pre-fight interviews – there is a growing belief that Nick’s heart isn’t totally in the fight.
A pace fighter who drowns opponents in volume, entering Saturday with a reach advantage and previous victory over Lawler under his belt – on paper, forgetting all the mitigating circumstances, the style match-up remains unchanged. If in some magical manner, normal Nick turns up, his pace-setting volume will strangle Lawler’s power-striking approach. I just cannot safely back Diaz, who is an unknown entity at this point.
Predicted Result: Lawler Decision
This could be a front-runner for the saddest fight of the year. A strange last-minute jump up to Middleweight, a doughy physique on the scales, and worrying pre-fight interviews – there is a growing belief that Nick’s heart isn’t totally in the fight. On paper, forgetting all the mitigating circumstances, the style match-up remains unchanged. Nick’s pace and volume overwhelms Lawler’s power-striking (especially now the vet cannot pull the trigger). Still, even with Lawler throwing almost nothing of note for the past four fights, Nick 2.0 is currently an unknown entity.
Result: Lawler def. Diaz // TKO (retirement) Round 3 0:44
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Curtis Blaydes (14-3) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-2)
Heavyweight (265)
Curtis Blaydes
Curtis Blaydes is at risk of fast becoming the “what could have been” man. A rare technically elite fighter at Heavyweight, Curtis continually improves all areas of his games. Perhaps the most fearsome wrestler at 265lbs and with fast-improving boxing, Blaydes has just found himself unluckily eating punches from the two hardest hitters in the sport. Rozenstruik is a powerful counter-puncher, but his takedown defence is far worse than Derrick Lewis’ (even if the Black Beast’s is largely based around insane strength). Even as a shadow of his former self, Alistair Overeem managed to take down Rozenstruik during the early rounds. Blaydes is a far more dominant wrestler, and worse yet for Rozenstruik, a killer ground and pound artist. Hellbows are a terrifying weapon.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Bigi Boy is a fine staple of the Heavyweight division, but his hopes of a title are pretty much dead and buried. A rematch with Francis N’Gannou would be fun, twenty seconds doesn’t give much indication of how a fight would potentially pan out, but Rozenstruik has no hope in a Gane rematch. Rozenstruik’s issue is that despite powerful, back-foot counter-striking, his flat feet and woeful defensive movement leave him wide open to takedowns. The power is certainly there to punish Blaydes, a notorious telegrapher of entries, but his time on the feet will be limited from the outset.
Predicted Result: Blaydes TKO Round 2
Rozenstruik is a powerful counter-puncher, but his takedown defence is far worse than even Derrick Lewis’ meme TDD. If an over-the-hill Alistair Overeem managed to take down Rozenstruik during the early rounds, Blaydes will find no trouble. Worse yet for Rozenstruik, a killer ground and pound artist. Hellbows are a terrifying weapon. Bigi Boy’s power is certainly there to punish Blaydes, a notorious telegrapher of entries, but his time on the feet will be limited from the outset.
Result: Blaydes def. Rozenstruik // Decision (unanimous – 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Jessica Andrade (21-9) vs Cynthia Calvillo (9-2-1)
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Jessica Andrade
The short powerhouse proved she could trade at Flyweight after battering Katlyn Chookagian, but her natural bullying tendencies are far better suited to Strawweight. Andrade can still lay down a hard pace, even if much of the work is uneducated, but her height and reach will hamper her massively at 125lbs. Her meat-headed aggression could see her walking straight into Calvillo’s guard, but the Brazilian’s freakish chin is a comical but effective weapon for closing the distance. Chookagian has a lovely jab, but Andrade bit down on the gumshield and ate it to get in range for her T-Rex bombs on the inside.
Cynthia Calvillo
Ideally, Calvillo will fight behind her jab. Despite frustrating inconsistencies, Calvillo has at times shown her ability to use her jab to work at range and wheel laterally around the border of the octagon. On the mat, Calvillo has a clear advantage, but neither fighter enters with an obvious intent of where they want to drag the fight. It is too easy to see Calvillo willingly allowing Andrade to out-work her on the feet.
Predicted Result: Andrade Decision
Ideally, Calvillo will fight behind her jab. Despite frustrating inconsistencies, Calvillo has at times shown her ability to use her jab to work at range and wheel laterally around the border of the octagon. Sadly, it is too easy to see Calvillo willingly allowing Andrade to out-work her on the feet. Her meat-headed aggression could see her walking straight into Calvillo’s guard, but the Brazilian’s freakish chin is a comical but vitally effective weapon for closing the distance.
Result: Andrade def. Calvillo // TKO (punches) Round 1 4:54
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega
Preliminary Card
Marlon Moraes (23-8-1) vs Merab Dvalishvili (13-4)
Bantamweight (135)
Marlon Moraes
Please, please, please don’t let the Moraes hype die. Like a crazy ex, I’m unwilling to let go of my kickboxing dreamboat, even though it is somewhat clear that the Brazilian is now broken goods. Losing both his chin and confidence, Moraes is a fighter who needs self-belief because his style is dictated by flashy, powerful risky strikes in the opening rounds. Perhaps it’s the age, or the miles on the body considering a thirty-fight career, but Moraes has fallen to the way-side. Moraes needs to land his power early to slow the pace of a fight as his gas tank falters by the third round.
Merab Dvalishvili
Quite possibly the worst take, but I’m gonna slip it in any way, Dvalishvili looks like the Georgian Darren Till. Their styles couldn’t be further apart, however. Dvalishvili is a cardio freak, consistently latching onto takedowns and forcing a brutal pace. It’s a difficult task to out-wrestle Moraes, especially early on, but this may just be a case of perfect match-making timing. The Georgian’s offensive striking has been tightened over the past couple of fights, but his striking defence remains porous. Based on the Brazilian’s slide, however, Dvalishvili won’t have his chin checked in a manner that it could have three years ago.
Predicted Result: Dvalishvili Decision
Perhaps it’s the age, or the miles on the body considering a thirty-fight career, but Moraes has fallen to the way-side. Dvalishvili is a cardio freak, consistently latching onto takedowns and forcing a brutal pace. It’s a difficult task to out-wrestle Moraes, especially early on, but this may just be a case of perfect match-making timing. If Moraes cannot land his power early to slow Dvalishvili’s pace, the Brazilian’s gas tank will falter by the third round.
Result: Dvalishvili def. Moraes // TKO (punches) Round 2 4:25
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Dan Hooker (20-10) vs Nasrat Haqparast (13-3)
Lightweight (135)
Dan Hooker
A variety of circumstances could influence this fight. Both fighters have been impacted by commissions, COVID-protocols and late weight cuts. In a normal match-up, however, the Hangman should crush Haqparast. One of the greatest first-round threats in any division, Hooker proved his quality after almost finishing Dustin Poirier – with the elite Lightweight only saved by the bell. The gas tank is an issue, and he is coming off of a shock first-round knockout, but Hooker wasn’t out cold – he was just caught by a clean shot. Knowing Haqparast’s slow starts, Hooker can force Haqparast into making a sloppy, early mistake before punishing the Afghan in a dogged war in the pocket.
Nasrat Haqparast
Haqparast has been held with high regard by many in the MMA community, but his calculated, methodical striking is not enough to stop Hooker from walking him down early. Barboza and Chandler possessed the power to tame Hooker, while Poirier is an exceptionally durable fighter who can adjust on the fly. Haqparast is a striking bully who needs to have total control over pace to slowly unravel his striking layers. If this gets out of the first round, the Afghan becomes a huge threat, but Hooker can replicate Drew Dober’s approach with more brutal violence.
Predicted Result: Hooker TKO Round 1
A variety of circumstances could influence this fight. Both fighters have been impacted by commissions, COVID-protocols and late weight cuts. Under normal circumstances, however, the Hangman should crush Haqparast. Knowing Haqparast’s slow starts, Hooker can force Haqparast into making a sloppy, early mistake before punishing the Afghan in a dogged war in the pocket. Haqparast is a striking bully who needs to have total control over pace to slowly unravel his striking layers. Hooker’s gas tank is an issue and he is coming off of a shock first-round knockout, but Haqparast hasn’t yet shown the ability to fly out the blocks and tame Hooker early.
Result: Hooker def. Haqparast // Decision (unanimous – 30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-5) vs Chris Daukaus (11-3)
Heavyweight (265)
Shamil Abdurakhimov
God damn, I hadn’t noticed the string of cancelled fights that have plagued Abdurakhimov over the past two years. COVID and injuries have led to five cancelled bouts, not an ideal delay in a forty-year-old career. Age doesn’t matter much when considering Abdurakhimov’s crafty style on the feet. Sure, the chin isn’t there, but Abdurakhimov owns beautiful technical boxing when compared to the Heavyweight scene.
Chris Daukaus
Speed kills until it doesn’t. There is no denying that Chris Daukaus has made a name with a string of three first-round finishes, but we are yet to be able to gauge his ceiling. Similar to Tanner Boser in regards to fleet footwork and crisp combinations, Daukaus has proven far too slippery for the cumbersome masses in unranked 265lbs. If Daukaus can out-fox the wily old vet, Abdurakhimov, it would be a huge statement.
Predicted Result: Daukaus Decision
There is no denying that Chris Daukaus has made a name with a string of three first-round finishes, but we are yet to be able to gauge his ceiling. Fleet footwork and crisp combinations have proven far too slippery for the cumbersome masses in unranked 265lbs. Abdurakhimov is a different beast, however. A crafty, technical boxer, only inactivity and age could stop this being an equal affair.
Result: Daukaus def. Abdurakhimov // TKO (punches and elbows) Round 2 1:23
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Roxanne Modafferi (25-18) vs Taila Santos (17-1)
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Roxanne Modafferi
Well, it goes without saying that Modafferi is the physically inferior athlete in the match-up. A wealth of experience, methodical striking and savvy on the mat keeps the veteran winning over unruly prospects. Coming off of a knee surgery, however, leaves questions marks over Modafferi’s already hampered physicality.
Taila Santos
A physical beast that dominates in the clinch, it has helped that her past two opponents have willingly walked into her preferred fight. Even though her opponents have allowed Santos to succeed, it is difficult to see how Modafferi can offer anything different. The Brazilian is stiff on the feet, but her size and power can paper over the cracks until she climbs far higher in the division.
Predicted Result: Santos Decision
A wealth of experience, methodical striking and savvy on the mat keeps Modafferi relevant in the UFC. Coming off of a knee surgery, however, leaves questions marks over Modafferi’s already hampered physicality. Worse yet, Santos is an athletic beast who is difficult to nudge when she works her on top.
Result: Santos def. Modafferi // Decision (unanimous – 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
Uros Medic (7-0) vs Jalin Turner (10-5)
Lightweight (155)
Uros Medic
This is a real barn-burner hidden on the prelims. Although the bout holds no value in regards to rankings, it is just dumb stupid fun between two hard-hitting giants at Lightweight. Medic is still a difficult fighter to put a finger on, his fights haven’t lasted long enough. A swarming creative striker with a lethal finishing rate, if Medic can stay on the front foot, it is difficult to see how the Southpaw doesn’t eventually find Turner’s chin. This is the first fight against an opponent with a vastly larger reach though, giving up 6″ to Turner, which could create an interesting dynamic that Medic will have to work inside.
Jalin Turner
Turner has had a decent time in the UFC but there has been a career issue with early stoppage losses. If Turner is to fight smart, he could fight behind his reach for the first round and drag Medic deep into the fight – an area that Turner has proven to be exceptionally strong. The aggressive striker, however, is more likely to engage in extended trades and pay the price. B B B banger of a fight.
Predicted Result: Medic TKO Round 1
This is a real barn-burner hidden on the prelims. A swarming creative striker with a lethal finishing rate, if Medic can stay on the front foot, it is difficult to see how the Southpaw doesn’t eventually find Turner’s chin. This is the first fight against an opponent with a vastly larger reach though, giving up 6″ to Turner, which could create an interesting dynamic that Medic will have to work inside. If Turner is to fight smart, he could fight behind his reach for the first round and drag Medic deep into the fight – but the aggressive striker loves to trade too much for his own good.
Result: Turner def. Medic // Submission (rear-naked choke) Round 1 4:01
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ✔️
Matt Semelsberger (8-3) vs Martin Sano (4-2-1)
Welterweight (170)
Matt Semelsberger
Not sure why this fight is happening, but hey ho. Semelsberger was out-worked in a recent fight with Khaos Williams, but the footballer turned mixed martial artist should destroy Sano. A crisp volume striker, Semelsberger drowned Carlton Minus and Jason Witt in volume. Semelsberger is more than capable of controlling opponents from the top. Neither Minus nor Witt are stellar opponents, but Sano hasn’t fought for four years so equals pequals.
Martin Sano
Affiliated with Nick Diaz, Martin Sano debuts in the UFC in the strangest circumstances. Strapping on the gloves after four years, Sano is looking to break his 1-2 slide, and find his first victory in seven years. With such a long time on the sidelines, it’s anyone’s guess as to what Sano represents as a fighter now, but the form fighter has to be backed.
Predicted Result: Semelsberger TKO Round 3
A crisp volume striker, Semelsberger drowned Carlton Minus and Jason Witt in volume. Neither Minus nor Witt are stellar opponents, but Sano hasn’t fought for four years so equals pequals. With such a long time on the sidelines, it’s anyone’s guess as to what Sano represents as a fighter now, but the form fighter has to be backed.
Result: Semelsberger def. Sano // KO (punch) Round 1 0:15
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ❌
Omar Morales (11-1) vs Jonathan Pearce (10-4)
Featherweight (145)
Omar Morales
Morales is a huge Featherweight, utilising his size to patiently out-work opponents at range. Owning a solid chin and an excellent eye to make reads on opponents, Morales is an efficient counter-puncher that gatekeeps opponents based on technicals. If Morales can keep this standing, the Venezuelan will prove far too efficient for Pearce to win over the judges.
Jonathan Pearce
Pearce is a size bully who will meet his match on Saturday night. Kai Kamaka is a solid fighter, but his slight frame allowed Pearce to walk him down early and ooze aggression with relatively little danger. Pearce can opt to take Morales down, but the Venezuelan’s solid TDD has held up against more proven wrestlers.
Predicted Result: Morales Decision
Pearce is a size bully who will meet his match on Saturday night. Owning a solid chin and an excellent eye to make reads on opponents, Morales is an efficient counter-puncher who Pearce will struggle to takedown.
Result: Pearce def. Morales // Submission (rear-naked choke) Round 2 3:31
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Prediction Accuracy
UFC 266
Winner: 10/12
Method: 3/12
Round: 4/12
2021 MMA Season
Winner: 217/360
Method: 166/360
Round: 155/360
MMA Overall
Winner: 408/664
Method: 303/664
Round: 281/664
Takeaway comments: Volk needs to start featuring pretty damn high on the P4P rankings.
Tipping Jar
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