UFC Fight Night 192: Smith vs Spann Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 192: Smith vs Spann Predictions & Results

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Ugh, another Anthony Smith main event – this time without an exciting opponent. It isn’t just that the main event lacks any sort of interest, the whole card reeks of half-arsed, uninspired matchmaking. Truly the dregs of the roster have been paired up for Saturday night. If a card features both Emily Whitmire and Hannah Goldy, it leaves little but a bad taste in the mouth. As such, this will be a brief overview of the event.

Failed to catch the action from the last UFC? No worries. Peep our preview from las week via UFC: Brunson vs Till Predictions. Prefer a review of the event to jog the memory? Read MAFB: Brunson vs Till.

Unconvinced by Pintsized’s mystical predicting powers? Take a look at our prediction success last month detailed in UFC Predictions Results: August 2021.

You already know that Joaquin Buckley's KO had to be featured | UFC Fight Night 192: Smith vs Spann
You already know that Joaquin Buckley’s KO had to be featured | UFC Fight Night 192: Smith vs Spann

UFC Fight Night 192: Smith vs Spann
Main Event

Anthony Smith (35-16) vs Ryan Spann (19-6)

Light Heavyweight (205)

Anthony Smith

Light Heavyweight remains an appalling division, yet Anthony Smith still represents a solid gatekeeper cum contender. After a disappointing five-round out-classing by Jon Jones, a declining JJ, Smith had his teeth knocked out by an ancient Glover Teixeira. The blown-up Middleweight is surprisingly one of the savvier technicians in the division, with admirable early-fight power, but he falls apart on the feet down the line. Smith can catch opponents on the mat during the later rounds, but as seen against Tex, his gas tank falls apart if forced to consistently lead the pace of a fight.

It is Smith’s heart that carries him into the championship rounds. If an opponent eventually runs out of ideas or deviates from their game plan, Lionheart excels in out-gritting opponents. This heart is often limited to just accepting a beating when forced onto his back these days, however. While it is abhorrent to claim a fighter quit during a fighter, it did appear that Smith adopted a damage limitation policy after being taken down by Jimmy Crute, Aleksandar Rakic and Glover Teixeira. Under the imposing weight of Ryan Spann, it would be foolish not to argue that a similar mental capitulation could occur again. Knowing Spann’s terrible fight IQ, though, Smith could once again showcase his ridiculous grit on the feet.

Ryan Spann

It is so difficult to gauge just how strong Spann is. Spann’s telegraphed combinations are crisply thrown, but there is no creativity or ability to adapt to what is in front of him. Spann dominated Sam Alvey against the cage during the early exchanges, but by switching off and robotically walking onto Alvey’s power, he almost found his lights switched off. A solid chin and rapid recovery time have been key behind Spann’s rise up the LHW rankings. Falling to Johnny Walker is a bad slight on the record, but being stopped in an ugly phone booth brawl is not indicative of a poor chin.

Spann needs to move away from his power on the feet and return to his grinding top control. Aleksandar Rakic and Glover Texeira both showcased the key game plan to beat Smith. Control Smith until he offers his back, land heavy ground and pound, rinse and repeat every round. As the more natural LHW, and with an injured Crute able to force Smith to the mat last time out, Spann should really be considered the favourite. While Spann doesn’t share the same wealth of experience as Smith, nor has Superman regularly stuck to the correct game plan, but this still represents a stylistic nightmare for Smith on paper.

Predicted Result: Spann Decision

It so difficult to gauge just how strong Spann is. Spann’s telegraphed combinations are crisply thrown, but there is no creativity or ability to adapt to what is in front of him. Aleksandar Rakic and Glover Texeira both showcased the key game plan to beat Smith – with Lionheart adopting a policy of damage limitation when forced onto his back. Under the imposing weight of Ryan Spann, it would be foolish not to argue that a similar mental capitulation could occur again. Knowing Spann’s terrible fight IQ, though, Smith could once again showcase his ridiculous grit on the feet. Overall, an incredibly difficult fight to predict due to each fighter’s limitations. Smith savvier striking and early-fight power could shock Spann if he is too willing to trade on the feet, but Superman’s wrestling has to be backed.

Result: Smith def. Spann // Submission (rear-naked choke) Round 1 3:47

Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

Despite Smith's wrestling looking leaky once again, Lionheart produced a stunning leg kick TKO to defeat Jimmy Crute | UFC Fight Night 192: Smith vs Spann
Despite Smith’s wrestling looking leaky once again, Lionheart produced a stunning leg kick TKO to defeat Jimmy Crute | UFC Fight Night 192: Smith vs Spann

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UFC Fight Night 192: Smith vs Spann
Co-Main Event

Ion Cutelaba (15-6-1) vs Devin Clark (12-5)

Light Heavyweight (205)

Ion Cutelaba

The scariest first round fighter has started to lose stock over the past couple of years. A career delay of almost a year while waiting for the Magomed Ankalaev rematch, ending in an unceremonious first-round stoppage, has only been papered over with an ugly split draw over Dustin Jacoby. It’s a shame as Cutelaba proved himself the superior mixed martial artist in the first round, but his immaturity in the octagon has always been the Moldovan’s Achilles heel. 11 takedowns in round 1 and an additional 7 in round 2 evidence Cutelaba’s ego and obsession with chasing stoppages.

At the very least, Cutelaba is a fun fighter to watch. Living and dying by the sword, Cutelaba is a powerful wrestler with heavy hands that are thrown liberally from the get-go. Frequent takedowns are due to loose top control, but that is largely because of his preference to rain down hell-fire ground and pound. At just twenty-seven years old, Cutelaba is too young to be written off despite lacking a win in the last two years.

Devin Clark

Devin Clark is no ironman athlete, but he will not fall off the cliff by the third round as Ion Cutelaba does. Clark’s solid TDD may well force Cutelaba to flag earlier than usual. A surprisingly powerful striker, Clark lacks the technical cuteness to set up any sort of counter to punish Cutelaba’s all-out aggression. Another major issue is that Clark has often folded under finishing pressure during his time in the UFC, often falling in the first round.

Clark could well ride the early pressure in a similar fashion to his victory over Alonzo Menifeld. After a sketchy first-round in which Clark barely survived, the American doggedly grappled his way to the scorecards. Cutelaba carries his power further than Menifeld, however, and is far more capable of defending himself on the mat. Clark would have to pull out a career performance if Cutelaba enters in somewhat decent shape.

Predicted Result: Cutelaba TKO Round 1

The scariest first round fighter has started to lose stock over the past couple of years. In large part, it is the Moldovan’s immaturity that bites him. 11 takedowns in round 1 and an additional 7 in round 2 against Dustin Jacoby highlight Cutelaba’s ego as he chased a stoppage and set an unreasonable pace. Clark’s solid TDD may well force Cutelaba to flag earlier than usual, yet a lack of technical cuteness on the back-foot will fail to punish Cutelaba’s all-out aggression. Another major issue is that Clark has often folded under finishing pressure during his time in the UFC, often falling in the first round.

Result: Cutelaba def. Clark // Decision (unanimous – 29-27, 29-26, 30-26)

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

Living by the sword, dying by the sword - it is the Ion Cutelaba way | UFC Fight Night 192: Smith vs Spann
Living by the sword, dying by the sword – it is the Ion Cutelaba way | UFC Fight Night 192: Smith vs Spann

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UFC Fight Night 192: Smith vs Spann
Main Card

Mandy Bohm (7-0) vs Ariane Lipski (13-7)

Women’s Flyweight (125)

Mandy Bohm

The jab isn’t a strike often used outside of the top five of the Women’s divisions, but Bohm secures entire rounds behind the shot. If Bohm keeps herself sat on the outside and utilise her 3″ reach advantage, this could be a tasty affair with the German taking it on with the more consistent volume. An issue is Bohm’s willingness to brawl in the clinch. Not only is Bohm wide open to damage in the clinch, but she is also walking directly into Lipski’s preferred world. The German may as well sit on the mat and allow Lipski an avenue to using her submission arsenal.

Ariane Lipski

How many fights until Ariane Lipski finally cracks the old TDD, eh? What should have been an easily marketable package for the UFC, Lipski has given far more headaches than paydays. Back to back stoppage losses is dreadful at 125lbs, and it is questionable as to why the UFC continues with the Lipski experiment when more quality fighters have been cut for less? Lipski is the superior athlete and even if she finds herself caught in a single-shot sniping war on the outside, her power could easily bail her out against an unproven fighter.

Predicted Result: Lipski Decision

Lipski is the superior athlete and even if she finds herself caught in a single-shot sniping war on the outside, her power could easily bail her out against an unproven fighter. It won’t be an easy ask against Mandy Bohm, however. The jab isn’t a strike often used outside of the top five of the Women’s divisions, but Bohm secures entire rounds behind the shot. Bohm’s issue will prove her willingness to brawl in the clinch. Not only is Bohm wide open to damage in the clinch, Lipski has shown cute trips before that will find her assuming top position.

Result: Lipski def. Bohm // Decision (unanimous – 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

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Christos Giagos (19-8) vs Arman Tsarukyan (16-2)

Lightweight (155)

Christos Giagos

If Giagos cannot get his wrestling going, there is no path to victory for The Spartan. Lacking the striking tools to maintain pressure to set up the takedown, nor the ability to keep opponents from walking him down (i.e. Sean Soriano), it will take a hail mary submission to beat Tsarukyan. The full-power striking, used to paper over technical limitations, leaves Giagos gasping by the third round. Combined with the hard pace set by Tsarukyan, it leaves Giagos with a punchers chance at best on Saturday night.

Arman Tsarukyan

At the risk of sounding harsh, Arman Tsarukyan is the only fighter on Saturday that has a realistic chance of climbing to the upper echelons. Entering the UFC as a liquid grappler, Tsarukyan’s potential was highlighted in a spirited performance against Islam Makhachev. While the threat on the mat remains, the Armenian appears to have made huge strides on the feet to round his game. Central is the jab, the link behind all of Tsarukyan’s combinations. The jab isn’t just used to keep busy but also to dictate an opponents position. A keep busy fight that the prospect could choose to coast through or take a risk to find the highlight reel stoppage.

Predicted Result: Tsarukyan Submission Round 3

At the risk of sounding harsh, Arman Tsarukyan is the only fighter on Saturday that has a realistic chance of climbing to the upper echelons. A liquid grappler, the Armenian appears to have made huge strides on the feet to round his game. Central is the jab, used to keep busy while also dictating positioning within the octagon. Giagos is a solid grappler, but if he cannot get his wrestling going, he is lost. Full-power striking papers over technical limitations, but it does leave him with a slight punchers chance.

Result: Tsarukyan def. Giagos // TKO (punches) Round 1 2:09

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Nate Maness (13-1) vs Tony Gravely (21-6)

Bantamweight (135)

Nate Maness

Maness very much remains the regional fighter who has yet to blossom to the UFC calibre. Beating Johnny Munoz Jr. in a debatable decision and a second-round submission over Luke Sanders do little to prove your skillset. With a 5″ height and 3″ reach advantage on Saturday, Maness could find the same success he enjoyed in the regionals. A durable, relentless striker, Maness can still thrive at the lowly unranked level of the UFC.

Tony Gravely

Gravely’s leaky striking defence may end this fight early. Banking on Maness landing his power early is just as big a gamble, however. Gravely’s path to success revolves around his power wrestling from where he can search for a submission. Trading in the pocket is Gravely’s typical path to finding the takedown, however, and could leave him in serious trouble if Maness times a speculative knee.

Predicted Result: Maness Decision

With a 5″ height and 3″ reach advantage on Saturday, Maness could find the same success he enjoyed in the regionals. A durable, relentless striker, Maness can expose Gravely’s leaky striking defence. Banking on Maness landing his power early is just as big a gamble, however. Gravely’s path to success revolves around his power wrestling from where he can search for a submission. Trading in the pocket is Gravely’s typical path to finding the takedown, though, which could leave him in serious trouble if Maness times a speculative intercepting knee.

Result: Maness def. Gravely // TKO (punches) Round 2 2:10

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Joaquin Buckley (12-4) vs Antonio Arroyo (9-4)

Middleweight (185)

Joaquin Buckley

Such is the poetic justice of the sport that Joaquin Buckley both secured then endured highlight-reel stoppages in the octagon. Rather than building on his KOTY over Impa Kasanganay, Buckley fell in the first round to a brutal Alessio Di Chirico head kick. Buckley’s stocky build and desire to chase finishes immediately leaves the power-puncher wading into danger to close the distance. Thankfully Arroyo is not an educated counter-puncher. and Buckley shouldn’t have much issue working inside Arroyo’s length.

Antonio Arroyo

Arroyo is the type of fighter who favours a head kick over a jab. Against Deron Winn, it seemed almost every kick that Arroyo threw he ended up on the floor. There was no need either as he regularly found the target with his jab. As a result, Arroyo not only fails to produce enough volume on the feet, but he is also extremely susceptible to the takedown. If the Brazilian bundles his way to top position, he possesses the skillset to find submission opportunities, but that is rarely the case. TL;DR Stupid decision making often results in Arroyo landing a couple of punches, getting confident, attempting a spinning back kick before being taken down.

Predicted Result: Buckley TKO Round 2

Buckley’s stocky build and desire to chase finishes immediately leaves the power-puncher wading into danger to close the distance. Thankfully Arroyo is not an educated counter-puncher. and Buckley shouldn’t have much issue working inside Arroyo’s length. Sure, Arroyo has a nice jab, but he would favour a head kick as a range-finder. As a result, Arroyo not only fails to produce enough volume on the feet, but he is also extremely susceptible to the takedown.

Result: Buckely def. Arroyo // KO (punches) Round 3 2:26

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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UFC Fight Night 192: Smith vs Spann
Preliminary Card

Tafon Nchukwi (5-1) vs Mike Rodriguez (11-6)

Light Heavyweight (205)

Tafon Nchukwi

Cameroonian, Tafon Nchukwi, hit his first career hurdle a few months ago when he fell to a majority decision to Jun Yong Park. Moving up to LHW, and skipping a brutal weight cut, will likely see Nchukwi resolve his questionable gas tank. Power doesn’t always transfer up divisions, but in Nchukwi’s case, his heavy hands should still provide the same pop. If Rodriguez is hell-bent on closing distance to lock up the clinch, Nchukwi will find frequent opportunities to land on his lumbering opponent.

Mike Rodriguez

A massive LHW, Rodriguez’s 82.5″ reach will prove a problem for most at 205lbs. While the American is painfully slow in terms of movement and hand speed, he carries heavy hands and a decent knack of timing. More importantly, Rodriguez’s best work comes from the clinch. With a 4″ height advantage over Tafon Nchukwi, Rodriguez will be better able to weigh down on his opponent and find opportunities to land his stabbing knees and elbows. Unfortunately for Rodriguez, he regularly fails to maintain pressure throughout a fight and finds a way to fall into his opponent’s preferred fight.

Predicted Result: Nchukwi TKO Round 2

Moving up to LHW, and skipping a brutal weight cut, will likely see Nchukwi resolve his questionable gas tank. If Rodriguez is hell-bent on closing distance to lock up the clinch, Nchukwi will find frequent opportunities to land on his lumbering opponent. Rodriguez remains a threat, though. A massive LHW, Rodriguez’s 82.5″ reach will is a problem for most at 205lbs. Heavy hands and excellent clinch work are let down by painfully slow movement and hand speed. Moreover, an inability to maintain pressure through a fight indicates Nchukwi will find the finishing shot during a lull in Rodriguez’s mental.

Result: Nchukwi def. Rodriguez // Decision (unanimous – 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Pannie Kianzad (15-5) vs Raquel Pennington (11-8)

Women’s Bantamweight (135)

Pannie Kianzad

Pannie Kianzad has carved out a four-fight rise over the past couple of years, yet you’d be forgiven for forgetting the Swede’s name. Throughout all her time at the UFC, Kianzad has only ever reached the decision (bar a sole submission loss during the TUF finale). A solid grappler, Kianzad opted to stay on the feet last time against Alexis Davis and almost threw away an easy-ish fight. Telegraphed combinations meant that Davis could tie the Swede up regularly, and this will not end positively against the larger and fresher Raquel Pennington.

Raquel Pennington

Long-time UFC vet, Raquel Pennington, is a fine gatekeeper. Don’t forget, it was only a couple of years ago that Pennington secured a split decision victory over the hot striking prospect, Irene Aldana. Pennington is a janky kickboxer that could stifle Kianzad on the feet, but her natural strength would be better used to wrestle the Swede. Durable and owning a deep gas tank, Pennington can walk down Kianzad and grind out an ugly decision.

Predicted Result: Pennington Decision

A solid grappler, Kianzad opted to stay on the feet last time against Alexis Davis and almost threw away an easy-ish fight. Telegraphed combinations meant that Davis could tie the Swede up regularly, and this will not end positively against the larger and fresher Raquel Pennington. The long-time UFC veteran is a fine gatekeeper, with janky kickboxing to stifle Kianzad and natural strength to out-wrestle her way to an ugly decision.

Result: Pennington def. Kianzad // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

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Zhu Rong (17-4) vs Brandon Jenkins (15-7)

Lightweight (155)

Zhu Rong

Twenty-one-year old prospect, Zhu Rong, will be eagerly followed by Dana White’s watchful eyes, Desperate to break the Chinese market, there was a reasonable belief that Zhu could be the man before his debut. A horribly negative fighter on the feet, Zhu is awkward when forced to fight off the back-foot. The Tibet native found great success on the regional scene when able to maintain pressure on the front foot and piece together combinations. Zhu has the youth to grow into a decent fighter, he appears to be a top athlete, but there are many holes to be papered over in the meantime.

Brandon Jenkins

A last-minute replacement from the PFL, the promotional journeyman has a menacing record of stoppages. Thankfully for Jenkins, Zhu will likely keep this fight standing – offering the American maximum opportunity to land his exotic spinning elbows/back-fists. Frequent low kicks and one-shot power can overcome Zhu’s drearily patient, single-shot counter punching. Of course, with only a few days of preparation, Jenkins will still be climbing a mountain on his UFC debut.

Predicted Result: Zhu Rong Decision

A horribly negative fighter on the feet, Zhu is awkward when forced to fight off the back-foot. The Tibet native found great success on the regional scene when he was able to maintain pressure on the front foot and piece together combinations. Jenkins represents a last-minute replacement, a promotional journeyman with a menacing record of stoppages. Frequent low kicks, one-shot power and exotic spinning strikes could overcome Zhu’s drearily patient, single-shot counter punching. Of course, with only a few days of preparation, Jenkins is already climbing a mountain on his UFC debut.

Result: Zhu Rong def. Jenkins // TKO (punches) Round 3 4:35

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Montel Jackson (10-2) vs JP Buys (9-3)

Bantamweight (135)

Montel Jackson

Despite hitting a speed bump in Brett Johns, Montel Jackson remains one of the hottest prospects in the UFC. A massive 5’10” frame, 75.5″ reach and fighting out of the Southpaw stance all combine with Jackson’s elite athleticism. Far more patient in his last outing against Jesse Strader, Jackson respected his opponent’s wild striking tendencies and patiently waiting to land his explosive right hand.

JP Buys

Perhaps I was a little too hot on JP Buys due to his Contender Series showing. Against Bruno Silva, Buys looked horrendously telegraphed as he plodded forward with a high guard. There is a clear athletic ceiling, and although Buys can be a serpent on the mat, he will be ragdolled in this match-up. Silva is a tiny man and he looked physically imposing against the South African. Moving up to Bantamweight isn’t the solution to a debut loss. Buys won’t be able to cope with Jackson’s power on the feet, while he cannot brute force the American to the mat.

Predicted Result: Jackson TKO Round 2

Despite hitting a speed bump in Brett Johns, Montel Jackson remains one of the hottest prospects in the UFC. A massive 5’10” frame, 75.5″ reach and fighting out of the Southpaw stance all combine with Jackson’s elite athleticism. Buys shouldn’t have moved up to 125, he was physically incapable of dealing with Bruno Silva. Buys won’t be able to cope with Jackson’s power on the feet, while he cannot out-grapple the American due to the natural strength differential.

Result: Jackson def. Buys // Decision (unanimous – 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Erin Blanchfield (6-1) vs Sarah Alpar (9-5)

Women’s Flyweight (125)

Erin Blanchfield

Out of the sport for over a year, it hasn’t been for a want of trying. With three scheduled opponents all pulling out prior to their fights, Blanchfield may well experience a bit of ring rust come Saturday. Only twenty-two years old, the stocky striker is far more technical than her barrel-shaped brawling first appears. Linking her striking to wrestling is central behind Blanchfield’s hype, an educated approach that often sees the prospect find her way to top position.

Sarah Alpar

Alpar may be the underdog, but she is a live body for a debutant. A grinding wrestler, Alpar could well prove the key gatekeeper against Blanchfield – creating an ugly fight that leaves Blanchfield dropping insurmountable early rounds. Unfortunately for Alpar, she has never out-grappled a top prospect before. As seen against Jessica-Rose Clark, Alpar only secured 2/11 takedowns while eating 76 significant strikes.

Predicted Result: Blanchfield Decision

Only twenty-two years old, Blanchfield is a stocky, technical striker that belies the initial appearance of a barrel-shaped brawler. Linking striking to wrestling is central behind Blanchfield’s hype, an educated approach that often sees the prospect find her way to top position. Alpar may be the underdog, but she is a live body for a debutant. A grinding wrestler, Alpar could create an ugly fight that leaves Blanchfield dropping insurmountable early rounds.

Result: Blanchfield def. Alpar // Decision (unanimous – 30-26, 30-25, 30-25)

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

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Impa Kasanganay (9-1) vs Carlston Harris (16-4)

Welterweight (170)

Impa Kasanganay

The loss to Joaquin Buckley, as devastating as it was, may prove the best result in Kasanganay’s career. A prospect pushed too fast too early, Kasanganay can continue to ply his trade with unranked opponents and soak up much-needed experience. In this match-up, Kasanganay will be forced to fight against a wily, wrestling-centric athlete. Impa’s ground game was vastly improved against Sasha Palatnikov, but against Harris, it would be best advised to stay standing. If Kasanganay can force Harris to initiate exchanges on the feet, his natural comfort in counter-striking will eventually crack the Guyanan’s chin.

Carlston Harris

Harris’ greatest success on the regional scene stemmed from his natural athletic superiority and bullying opponents. There isn’t a long career at UFC Welterweight for the thirty-four-year-old, as seen when he endured an early wobble against the humble power of Christian Aguilera. Bouncing footwork on the outside largely keeps Harris safe as he bides his time to shoot a takedown. If Kasanganay smothers his work, lingers in the pocket or disrespects Harris’ grappling, Harris could easily expose Kasanganay on the mat. Owning a diverse arsenal of submissions, it was only back in 2016 that Harris secured a first-round submission over another green UFC prospect in Wellington Turman.

Predicted Result: Kasanganay TKO Round 3

Impa’s ground game was vastly improved against Sasha Palatnikov, but against Harris, it would be best advised to stay standing. If Kasanganay can force Harris to initiate exchanges on the feet, his natural comfort in counter-striking will eventually crack the Guyanan’s chin. If Kasanganay smothers his work, lingers in the pocket or disrespects Harris’ grappling, Harris could easily expose Kasanganay on the mat. Owning a diverse arsenal of submissions, it was only back in 2016 that Harris secured a first-round submission over another green UFC prospect in Wellington Turman.

Result: Harris def. Kasanganay // TKO (punches) Round 1 2:38

Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ❌

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Gustavo Lopez (12-6) vs Heili Alateng (14-8-1)

Bantamweight (135)

Gustavo Lopez

An incredibly ugly brawler on the feet, the American is one of the more fun, older fighters to watch. Lopez’s key path to victory in every fight is snapping up an opponent’s back and working through a submission. Unfortunately for Lopez, he is neither strong nor technical enough to out-wrestle opponents in the UFC. As a result, Lopez has been forced to remain on the feet and trade leather.

Heili Alateng

The Mongolian Knight (an awesome nickname) is a woefully limited fighter. Despite victories over Danaa Batgerel and Ryan Benoit, Heili was exposed against Casey Kenney. Deathly slow on his feet, Alateng’s reactive power-striking fails when facing a fighter willing to stick and move. Although Heili’s wrestling is thoroughly average for the division, it should be enough to get Lopez to the mat. Whether the American is so easily controlled on the ground is another debate entirely. This will be a scrappy affair leaving one of the fighters unhappy with the result.

Predicted Result: Alateng Decision

An incredibly ugly brawler on the feet, the American is one of the more fun, older fighters to watch. Lopez’s key path to victory in every fight is snapping up an opponent’s back and working through a submission. Unfortunately for Lopez, he is neither strong nor technical enough to out-wrestle opponents in the UFC. Deathly slow on his feet, Alateng’s reactive power-striking fails when facing a fighter willing to stick and move. Although Heili’s wrestling is thoroughly average for the division, it should be enough to get Lopez to the mat. This will be a scrappy affair leaving one of the fighters unhappy with the result.

Result: Draw (unanimous – 28-28, 28-28, 28-28)

Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

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Emily Whitmire (4-4) vs Hannah Goldy (5-2)

Women’s Strawweight (125)

Emily Whitmire

For a fighter who lost to YOUNG Gillian Robertson via first-round submission in the TUF finale, Whitmire has endured an admirably long career in the UFC. A cumbersome fighter, Whitmire is far more mentally solid than Goldy. Striking deficiencies are covered up by a solid enough ground game, evidenced by a first-round submission over Aleksandra Albu. Ugh.

Hannah Goldy

A physical beast for the weight, Goldy is built like a damn tank. Unfortunately, Goldy’s unwillingness to knuckle down into back-and-forth fights will hold her back. Wheeling backwards on her back-foot and looking to counter, Goldy’s 61″ reach regularly fails her when searching for the target. A decent wrestling base keeps Goldy relevant, but infrequent shots leave those watching scratching their head as to how Goldy believes she can win the fight.

Predicted Result: Goldy Decision

A cumbersome fighter, Whitmire is far more mentally solid than Goldy. Striking deficiencies are covered up by a solid enough ground game, evidenced by a first-round submission over Aleksandra Albu. Goldy may well be built like a tank, but her strange decision to wait on the back-foot in search for the counter fails due to her 61″ reach. Decent enough wrestling will likely see Goldy pip the scorecards.

Result: Goldy def. Whitmire // Submission (armbar) Round 1 4:17

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

Return to Fight Card


Prediction Accuracy

UFC FIght Night 192

Winner: 11/14

Method: 5/14

Round: 4/14

2021 MMA Season

Winner: 207/348

Method: 163/348

Round: 151/348

MMA Overall

Winner: 398/652

Method: 300/652

Round: 277/652

Takeaway comments: Is Lionheart back, or did we all overestimate Spann?


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