Luque vs Chiesa Analysis and Prediction

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Luque vs Chiesa Analysis and Prediction

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Vicente Luque (20-7-1) vs Michael Chiesa (17-4)

Welterweight (170)

Vicente Luque

Counter-puncher supreme, Vicente Luque deserves some damn respect put on his name. With a money left hook, the Brazilian sits in the pocket, trusts his chin and sneaks his left hook in. In the first round against Wonderboy, Thompson was regularly stunned by Luque’s left hook off the cage. Only a brief scan of Luque’s career evidences his stellar chin. Through his complete confidence in out-enduring opponents, Luque’s volume on the inside breaks opponents physically and mentally.

Chiesa represents a test that Luque hasn’t often faced. Perhaps the Leon Edwards fight was Luque’s greatest showcasing of his defensive grappling. TDD has never been shown to an extended degree, however, due to Luque’s tendency to finish fights early. There were decent scrambles against Woodley, but the former champion had been a shadow of himself for the last few fights. If Chiesa snatches the back of Luque, the American’s freakishly long limbs may prove too much.

Michael Chiesa

The most clear-cut case of a grapple-wrestler, Chiesa faces a juggernaut on the feet for the first time. Obviously, RDA is a fine striker, but he is undersized at 170 and utterly vulnerable to wrestlers. Chiesa’s freakish size and improvements to his striking have benefitted the transitions to shot takedowns. No longer reliant upon the cage to force the fight to the mat, Chiesa’s aggressive straight shots keep opponents preoccupied with striking defence and leave their lower half-open.

Despite riding a four-fight streak, however, Chiesa only really has one notable victory. Neil Magny is a fellow, awkward lengthy Welterweight with decent hands and solid wrestling. Chiesa was able to back-pack his way to an easy decision in the end, however. If Luque can keep himself standing for three rounds, Chiesa will be dismantled on the feet, but there isn’t much evidence to back this hypothesis. Far more likely is Chiesa wraps up Luque early and grinds out another decision against a dangerous opponent.

Predicted Result: Chiesa Decision

Counter-puncher supreme, Vicente Luque deserves some damn respect put on his name. The Brazilian’s money left hook was no more apparent than during the first round against Wonderboy, regularly catching the elite striker with the counter hook off the cage. Chiesa represents a test that Luque hasn’t often faced. Showcasing decent defensive grappling against Leon Edwards, Luque’s only real evidence of TDD came against the aged Tyron Woodley. If Luque can keep himself standing for three rounds, Chiesa will be dismantled on the feet, but there isn’t much evidence to back this hypothesis. Far more likely is Chiesa wraps up Luque early and grinds out another decision against a dangerous opponent.

Although he was eventually torn apart in the final round, Vicente Luque had Wonderboy on wobbly legs during the first round | Luque vs Chiesa
Although he was eventually torn apart in the final round, Vicente Luque had Wonderboy on wobbly legs during the first round | Luque vs Chiesa

Want to view analysis and predictions for all the match-ups on UFC 265?

CLICK HERE


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