Lewis vs Gane Analysis and Prediction

Derrick Lewis (25-7) vs Ciryl Gane (9-0)

Heavyweight (265)

UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship

Derrick lewis

Big Derrick Lewis, somehow, someway, remains a firm fan favourite. The Black Beast has a wild highlight reel, of course. Several comeback knockouts in which Lewis lands his nuclear overhand after absorbing huge amounts of damage for 3+ rounds. Yet fans are quick to forget the Lewis fights against Francis N’Gannou, Ilir Latifi and Blagoy Ivanov. A style based around durability, exceptional recovery and timing a one-shot knockout does have its limitations. Time and time again, however, opponents fall to Lewis’ power. In large part due to most Heavyweights latching onto any moment of success, Lewis often catches opponents running in to finish him.

Meme-like grappling aside, Lewis’ raw strength is never more apparent than off his back. Seemingly springing into action whenever he chooses, Lewis has shrugged off Marcin Tybura, Alexander Volkov and Roy Nelson on his way back to his feet. While it isn’t too difficult to get the Black Beast to the mat, the struggle is keeping him there. The elite wrestlers have succeeded, such as DC, yet is Gane closing in on that level yet? More likely is that Lewis’ vulnerable mid-rift will be targetted. Over the hill versions of JDS and Travis Browne used liver shots and front kicks to soften Lewis. Although the thirty-six-year-old eats a shot to the chin like a champ, he visibly bends after taking damage to his body.

Even with the clear limitations of Lewis’ game, his mental fortitude remains elite. Happy enough to drop every round in search of the knockout, Lewis is also willing to wade through damage to land ‘that shot’. It ain’t pretty but it’s honest work. Whether Lewis can handle Gane’s power is another question. The Frenchman may not have many stoppages on his record, but he can very easily emulate Mark Hunt’s approach to fighting Lewis. Striking at range, constantly feinting, peppering Lewis with leg and body kicks, and refusing to extend combinations in the pocket – Lewis’ overhand can be drawn out and gassed.

Ciryl Gane

Following every consecutive victory in the UFC, Ciryl Gane overcomes another small hurdle. JDS represented the first veteran challenge. Rozenstruik, the powerful counter-puncher. Volkov, the freakish length and superb clinch work. Without failure, Gane has risen to every occasion with nothing less than a dominant performance. Perhaps the only criticism that could be shot is Gane’s tendency to reach the final bell. Regularly wobbling opponents, Gane often smothers his work in the search for the finish and loses the clean technique that stunned the opponent in the first place.

Gane owns the tools to emulate the Hunt victory over Lewis, even without the lights-out power. The Frenchman will struggle to earn Lewis’ respect if he head-hunts. Instead, Gane’s penchant for bodywork can exploit the chink in Lewis’ otherwise infallible armour. Coupled with leg kicks variety of hand, shoulder and hip feints, Lewis can be stalled into confusion against the cage as he is unable to time his overhand. Gane’s tendency to fall into one-pace, however, allows Lewis to find success in Gane’s consistent volume. Will Lewis have had the fight beaten out of him by the time the KO shot arises?

The greatest red flag remains over Gane’s tendency to gas by the championship rounds. Slowing footwork, rhythmic striking patterns and an increased willingness to trade on the inside all allow Lewis opportunities to claw his way back into the fight. Gane’s habit of hanging around in the pocket, watching his work while waiting for an opportunity to counter, leads him to eat unnecessary damage. Taking shots against Volkov is fine for Gane’s chin, against Lewis it could be suicidal. Finally, of course, Gane’s wrestling chops cannot be ignored. The Frenchman has the quality to get Lewis to the mat, but the Black Beast is too much of a nuisance to hold down. Moreover, Gane’s weirdly telegraphed head dip is primed to simulate Blaydes’ death by an uppercut.

Predicted Result: Gane Submission Round 4

While the script is available for all to see, Lewis secures his highlight reel comeback stoppages time and time again. A style based around durability, exceptional recovery and timing a one-shot knockout could only work for so long at Heavyweight. Of course, Lewis’ meme-like power off his back to keep fights standing enables the Black Beast more opportunities to land ‘that shot’. Even with the clear limitations of Lewis’ game, his mental fortitude remains elite. Willing to drop every round while waiting patiently for his overhand, Lewis also filters in a sprinkling of crazy explosive jumping strikes.

Gane, without failure, has risen to every incremental career hurdle with nothing less than a dominant performance. The Frenchman possesses the tools to emulate Mark Hunt’s victory over Lewis, even without the lights-out power. A penchant for bodywork, regular leg kicks, and a variety of hand and shoulder feints all serve to draw out Lewis’ overhand. If Gane keeps this at range, there is almost no chance for Lewis to land his power. Unfortunately, Gane tends to smother his work against wobbled opponents, a prime time for Lewis to land big. Worse yet, Gane tends to gas by the championship rounds and watch his work in the pocket. Taking shots against Volkov is fine for Gane’s chin, against Lewis it could be suicidal. With the wrestling chops to offer brief respite in exchanges or to transition from awkward positions, Gane likely has the tools to ride choppy waters.

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