Aldo vs Munhoz Analysis and Prediction

Home » MMA Single Fights » Aldo vs Munhoz Analysis and Prediction

Aldo vs Munhoz Analysis and Prediction

Want to view analysis and predictions for all the match-ups on UFC 265?

CLICK HERE

Jose Aldo (29-7) vs Pedro Munhoz (19-5)

Bantamweight (135)

Jose Aldo

A certain Hall of Famer, and an unquestionable GOAT candidate, Jose Aldo continues to duke it out with the elite in his career twilight. Continuing after a decent win over Marlon Vera, Aldo showcased his experience and class. Snapping a three-fight slide, Aldo out-wrestled Vera and kept himself away from Vera’s hurtful strikes in the clinch. Even Aldo’s back to back losses were not damning. Volkanovski out-game-planned the Brazilian, Moraes eeked out a very dubious decision victory, and Yan was dragged into a 50/50 battle for the first 2-3 rounds of their championship war.

Munhoz isn’t a fighter that twilight Aldo can walk down, however. Early aggression can certainly secure rounds, yet there will not be first-round finishes in the same vein as Renato Moicano or Jeremy Stephens. Key to the match-up is Aldo’s willingness to call upon his leg kicks. Pulling them out of his locker against Yan after a long absence, Aldo proved the power was still there. While Munhoz’s leg kicks remain a constant issue throughout fights, they lack the one-shot leg killing power that Aldo possesses. Still, there is a clear fall-off in Aldo’s output after the first couple of rounds. Yan and Holloway pushed freakish paces against Aldo, causing the Brazilian to wilt by the championship rounds. Gassing will only be more evident if Aldo attempts to take Munhoz down. Vera is a durable fighter, but Aldo’s famous power at Featherweight has so far been missing at Bantamweight. With a greater focus on wrestling, Aldo is calling upon his questionable gas tank to carry him through rounds.

Pedro Munhoz

After riding his early UFC career on the back of a wonderful guillotine choke, Munhoz has carved out a decent boxing base. Frequent jabs, a thunderous calf kick and an unbreakable chin combine to create a Terminator-like style. Walking opponents down and throwing regular naked low kicks, Munhoz backs himself to break opponents. There will be ample opportunity for Aldo to counter Munhoz’s low kicks, yet Munhoz’s chin may prove the former champ’s kryptonite. If Munhoz backs his chin, he can drag Aldo into extended exchanges that the Brazilian will struggle to keep up with by the later rounds. Aldo’s technical supremacy means little if he fails to capitalise on early attempts to crack Munhoz’s chin. 

Max Holloway found great success with his jab against Aldo, tiring the champion by drawing out his powerful counters with subtle feints. Up until now, Munhoz hasn’t shown the ability to build combinations off the jab, however. Defensively, Munhoz may also come undone on the scorecards. Restricted behind his high guard, Munhoz absorbs hard initial strikes, yet combination works break the guard. Aldo’s liver shots and bodywork may not break Munhoz’s armour, but it will certainly win over judges. Despite this, it only takes one well-timed leg kick from Munhoz to change the fight dynamic against an ageing opponent. With the ability to keep this fight standing, Munhoz remains a threat from start till finish.

Predicted Result: Aldo Decision

Either Munhoz’s pace, durability and pressure kill Aldo late, or the former champ pips a decision based on cleaner technique. Although Aldo is well within his career twilight, he snapped a three-fight slide by out-wrestling and out-experiencing Vera. The key to the match-up is Aldo’s willingness to call upon his leg kicks. Pulling them out of his locker against Yan after a long absence, Aldo proved the power was still there. Munhoz’s consistency with low kicks, often throwing them naked, may well break Aldo before himself, however. Despite being primed to counter Munhoz’s telegraphed shots with combinations that break Munhoz’s high guard, Aldo worryingly gasses by the later rounds. Early wrestling and Munhoz’s reliance upon his chin to drag Aldo into extended exchanges will only speed up the process. Aldo’s more diverse arsenal is still being backed, but this could be a razor-thin decision that comes down to personal stylistic preference.

After such a long and successful career, Aldo continues to produce the goods - care to show us the fountain of youth? | Aldo vs Munhoz
After such a long and successful career, Aldo continues to produce the goods – care to show us the fountain of youth? | Aldo vs Munhoz

Want to view analysis and predictions for all the match-ups on UFC 265?

CLICK HERE


Tipping Jar

Pintsized Interests is just a baby finding its first steps in the big, bad world of sports journalism. If you enjoy the content that is regularly uploaded then please consider donating via the link below. Any amount is greatly appreciated, and will go towards ensuring the survival of Pintsized Interests in the long-term.


Leave a Reply