Xu Can vs Wood Analysis and Prediction

Xu Can (18-2, 3KO) vs Leigh Wood (24-2, 14KO)

Featherweight (126)

WBA World Featherweight Title

Leigh Wood

After Conor Benn was forced to postpone his fight with Adrian Granados due to a positive COVID test, Xu Can and Leigh Wood’s title fight has been bumped up to main event rights. Although the pre-fight emphasis has surrounded Leigh Wood, as expected of the British press over a British fighter, this is far from an easy path to a world title. It was only a year ago that Wood was out-worked in an ugly decision loss to Jazza Dickens. While Dickens’ is a solid British level fighter, he is far from an elite force at Featherweight. Trainer, Ben Davison, can claim all he wants that Wood possesses the ‘top P4P power’ on the pads – but this is a fighter who took nine rounds to stop David Oliver Joyce. In comparison, Ionut Baluta, the feather duster himself, took only three rounds to sleep Joyce.

Styles make fights, however, and Leigh Wood could prove Xu’s kryptonite. In all fairness to the Nottinghamshire native, clear technical improvements since moving to Davison were visible against Reece Mould last time out. Constantly using the jab on the back-foot, Wood keeps a calculation over range while looking busy to the scorers. Better yet, when Wood lowers into a body jab, the weight behind the shot forces reactions out of opponents. Often caught in two minds between shelling up behind a guard to counter or weather the storm before pressing, Wood’s jab is the perfect tool to control range. Worryingly, Wood tends to utilise the 1-2 pull counter frequently as his means to break an opponent’s guard. Against Can, however, Wood won’t have the benefit of superior reach than in his previous fights. Still, Wood’s uppercut is a majestic shot on the inside that splits through the middle of an opponents guard and slows their advances.

Height and reach may prove to be an insurmountable mountain for Wood this fight. Wood can box off the ropes, as seen during the early rounds against Jazza Dickens, but he cannot maintain an intense pace for the full twelve rounds. There is a real worry that if Wood cannot settle behind his jab, he could unravel under the sustained pressure from Can. Although Wood will have ample opportunity to time power counters as Can stalks into range, he struggles to free himself from clinches. If Can is willing and able to eat Wood’s hard counter, the champion can tangle Wood in a clinch similar to Dickens and break the body. Dickens’ most hurtful work landed after breaking from Wood, with the Nottingham man dropping his hands and resetting his feet in the pocket. Wood may have a solid chin, but it remains a cause for concern for a fighter who has been stopped previously.

Xu Can

WBA Featherweight champion, Xu Can, emerged out of the shadows with a huge win over Jesus Rojas back at the start of 2019. While the wide scorecards don’t replicate the razor-close nature of the fight, Can proved his heart, deep gas tank and champion mindset after unloading a ferocious volume from start to finish. Sliding laterally around the outside Can takes shots onto his high guard before launching sharp three-punch combinations which often start with a stinging left hook. Even with the high guard, Can’s decision to remain at striking range and lack of head movement both leave him eating far more damage than necessary. Against a fighter like Wood who carries thudding power, it seems foolish, but there is little doubting Can’s granite chin. 

Preferring to fight off the back-foot and unload bursts of shots, Can’s lack of a jab may bite him on the backside. Whether Wood’s jab lands or not, the frequency of the shot will look even tastier to the judges if Can has willingly backed himself onto the ropes. Unlike the Rojas fight, Wood will not simply walk Can down and engage in rock-em sock-em action. While Can was more active on the front foot against Manny Robles, he still failed to control distance. Chasing Robles’ in a straight line and allowing the Mexican to slip out the side when pressed to the ropes, Can’s sole focus on unloading volume is often to his detriment. 

The stats may claim that Xu Can landed 1562 punches in his title defence against Manny Robles, but therein lies the other great question mark over Can as the champion. Despite his nickname “The Monster”, he lacks the fearsome knockout power required to bully opponents in his preferred extended exchanges in the pocket. Power, however, shouldn’t be much of an issue against Wood. As seen against Dickens, Wood can fold under relentless pressure. Can’s inability to tie up opponents and drain their gas tank, however, once again plays into Wood’s hands. In a hectic but clean fight on the outside, Wood’s straight shots and evasive footwork should bank early rounds. 

Predicted Result: Wood Decision

Although the pre-fight emphasis has surrounded Leigh Wood, as expected of the British press over a British fighter, this is far from an easy path to a world title. It was only a year ago that Wood was out-worked in an ugly decision loss to Jazza Dickens. WBA Featherweight champion, Xu Can, possesses heart, relentless volume and a deep gas tank. Sliding laterally around the outside Can takes shots onto his high guard before launching sharp three-punch combinations which often start with a stinging left hook. As seen against Dickens, Wood can fold under sustained pressure, yet Can’s inability to tie up opponents and drain their gas tank plays into Wood’s hands. In a hectic but clean fight on the outside, Wood’s straight shots and evasive footwork should bank early rounds.

Although Wood will find himself the smaller fighter on this rare occasion, the Nottingham boxer’s preference for straight shots will regularly find the mark against an opponent who always remains in range. Worse yet for Can, his fight against Manny Robles showcased his lack of ring generalship. Chasing Robles’ in a straight line and allowing the Mexican to slip out the side when pressed to the ropes, Can’s sole focus on unloading volume is often to his detriment. If the champion is unwilling, or unable, to drag Wood into an ugly fight with ample use of the clinch, he will be regularly be beaten to the punch in 50/50 exchanges. While Can’s ridiculous volume will always benefit him on the scorecards, expect a tightly scored affair between two durable fighters.

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