UFC Vegas 65 Predictions, Odds and Results: Lewis vs Spivak
UFC Vegas 65 Pintsized Background
An early-bird card, UFC Vegas 65 is totally devoid of any quality. In the Main Event, Spivak has been offered a chance to move beyond his Heavyweight gatekeeper role. Whether Lewis’ nuclear power rears its ugly face once again, however, is the major question mark.
Down in the UFC Vegas 65 prelims, the Pintsized pick of the fights involves a Bantamweight bout between Fernie Garcia and Brady Hiestand. Hiestand, a former TUF finalist, is just 23 years old and possesses a raw quality that is levels beyond his padded record.
Where/When is UFC Vegas 65 taking place:
November 19, 2022. UFC Apex. Nevada, United States.
What time does UFC Vegas 65 start:
🇬🇧 UK: 6pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 1pm
What channel is UFC Vegas 65 on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
🚀 Preview: UFC 281 Predictions, Odds and Results: Adesanya vs Pereira
💰 PI’s Recommended Fight: Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler
Travel down the Pintsized rabbit hole:
🥊 UFC Vegas 65 Main Card | 🌟 UFC Vegas 65 Prelims | 📺 YouTube
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UFC Vegas 65 Picks & Odds
| UFC Vegas 65 Odds | UFC Vegas 65 Predictions |
|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis vs Sergey Spivak Odds: (+170) / (-200) | Derrick Lewis vs Sergey Spivak Prediction: Spivak Decision |
| Ion Cutelaba vs Kennedy Nzechukwu Odds: (+150) / (-175) | Ion Cutelaba vs Kennedy Nzechukwu Prediction: Nzechukwu TKO Round 2 |
| Chase Sherman vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta Odds: (+195) / (-230) | Chase Sherman vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction: Sherman TKO Round 3 |
| Muslim Salikhov vs Andre Fialho Odds: (-115) / (-105) | Muslim Salikhov vs Andre Fialho Prediction: Fialho TKO Round 1 |
| Jack Della Maddalena vs Danny Roberts Odds: (-625) / (+470) | Jack Della Maddalena vs Danny Roberts Prediction: Maddalena TKO Round 2 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs Charles Johnson Odds: (+145) / (-170) | Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs Charles Johnson Prediction: Johnson Decision |
| Jennifer Maia vs Maryna Moroz Odds: (+160) / (-190) | Jennifer Maia vs Maryna Moroz Prediction: Maia Decision |
| Miles Johns vs Vince Morales Odds: (-170) / (+145) | Miles Johns vs Vince Morales Prediction: Johns Decision |
| Ricky Turcios vs Kevin Natividad Odds: (-155) / (+135) | Ricky Turcios vs Kevin Natividad Prediction: Turcios Decision |
| Maria Oliveira vs Vanessa Demopoulos Odds: (-110) / (-110) | Maria Oliveira vs Vanessa Demopoulos Prediction: Oliveira Decision |
| Fernie Garcia vs Brady Hiestand Odds: (+145) / (-170) | Fernie Garcia vs Brady Hiestand Prediction: Hiestand Decision |
| Natalia Silva vs Tereza Bleda Odds: (-165) / (+140) | Natalia Silva vs Tereza Bleda Prediction: Bleda Decision |
UFC Vegas 65: Main Event
Derrick Lewis vs Sergey Spivak
Heavyweight (265)
Derrick Lewis (26-10)
Lewis may have been stopped in his last two fights, but it doesn’t necessarily indicate a massive decline. The Black Beast has built a career of Homer Simpson-ing his way into the later rounds before landing his one-shot knockout power. Lewis endured a similar stretch of humiliating losses to Daniel Cormier and Junior Dos Santos but then went on to build a four-fight streak (including a knockout over Blaydes).
As long as Lewis remains the flawed yet consistent Heavyweight we have all come to know, he very much beats Spivak. The veteran has meme-level TDD but he is truly difficult to pin on the mat. Spivak has been honing his craft in the shadows, but there are still times that Spivak ends up on his back when pursuing takedowns.
Sergey Spivak (15-3)
Polar Bear has developed leaps and bounds since his UFC debut back in 2019. Spivak, at his core, remains a grinding wrestler who can expose the one-trick nature of many Heavyweights. Over 2022, we have witnessed more educated striking at range. There is absolutely no way that Spivak should engage in prolonged exchanges on the feet, but it also means he might not crumble at the first Lewis haymaker.
Lewis vs Spivak Prediction: Spivak Decision
Spivak, at his core, remains a grinding wrestler who can expose the one-trick nature of many Heavyweights. Despite all the memes, Lewis is a very difficult fighter to pin down to the mat. There is reason to believe that we may have witnessed a physical decline in Lewis over his past two losses, however. If not for such a perceived decline, Lewis would have to be favoured in the stylistic match-up. Spivak is deathly slow on the feet, despite refining his fundamentals over his UFC tenure, and is primed to walk on to a Black Beast highlight reel.
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UFC Vegas 65: Co-Main Event
Ion Cutelaba vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
Light Heavyweight (205)
Ion Cutelaba (16-8-1)
Cutelaba’s mythical first-round success is well and truly in the dust. Over his last six fights, The Hulk has been stopped four times in the opening round. On the one hand, dropping consecutive fights against Magomed Ankalaev isn’t a particular slight. On the other, being choked out by Johnny Walker is retirement material. At his core, Cutelaba remains a consistently aggressive fighter who strings together haymakers and relentlessly pursues takedowns.
Kennedy Nzechukwu (10-3)
Another consistent fighter yet a total polar opposite of Cutelaba. Nzechukwu is a slow, methodical striker but one who has the durability and risk aversion to buy himself enough time warm into contests. The ferocious beatdown on Karl Roberson, including a lesser-seen domination on the mat, suggests that Nzechukwu is finally emerging into the prospect that shined on DWCS.
Cutelaba vs Nzechukwu Prediction: Nzechukwu TKO Round 2
At his core, Cutelaba remains a consistently aggressive fighter who strings together haymakers and relentlessly pursues takedowns. Nzechukwu represents the polar opposite – a slow, methodical striker but one who has the durability and risk aversion to buy himself enough time warm into contests. Putting my faith in the African Savage off the back of the humiliating domination of Karl Roberson on the mat.
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UFC Vegas 65: Main Card
Chase Sherman vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Heavyweight (265)
Chase Sherman (16-10)
Mr hot-and-cold finally earned himself a morale-boosting victory over Jared Vanderaa. Granted, Vanderaa is a true bottom-of-the-barrel fighter, but The Vanilla Gorilla at least looked willing to fight. Sherman still looks unable to utilise his power effectively, but Waldo Cortes-Acosta hardly shone on the feet during his UFC debut.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (8-0)
Sharing a similar opponent, Salsa Boy somehow stunk out a worse performance against Jared Vanderaa than Sherman. Cortes-Acosta is a heavy-pressure fighter, but he failed to impose his pace on one of the worst UFC Heavyweights in recent memory. If Cortes-Acosta lands his hands early, Sherman can mentally collapse, but it’s a coin-flip between a fighter down bad and a fighter just plain bad.
Sherman vs Cortes-Acosta Prediction: Sherman TKO Round 3
Sharing a similar opponent, Salsa Boy somehow stunk out a worse performance against Jared Vanderaa than Sherman. Cortes-Acosta is a heavy-pressure fighter, but he failed to impose his pace on one of the worst UFC Heavyweights in recent memory. If Cortes-Acosta lands his hands early, Sherman can mentally collapse, but it’s a coin-flip between a fighter down bad and a fighter just plain bad.
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Muslim Salikhov vs Andre Fialho
Welterweight (170)
Muslim Salikhov (18-3)
Salikhov’s future in the UFC doesn’t feel too bright after his second-round loss to Jingliang Li. At 38 years old, Salikhov has shown worrying signs of physical decline. The Russian is a polished technician with a slick wrestling fall-back plan, but there is less room for mistakes if Salikhov fails on one of his creative spinning attacks.
Andre Fialho (16-5)
After a lightning-fast three-fight stretch over April-June 2022, we are still none the wiser about what Fialho will bring to the octagon. The Portuguese striker carries freak power, yet often fights in such a reserved manner that it allowed Jake Matthews to jab his head off. While I am backing Fialho to find the kill switch eventually, it won’t be a pretty affair against a more confident opponent at mid-distance.
Salikhov vs Fialho Prediction: Fialho TKO Round 1
Fialho carries freak power, yet often fights in such a reserved manner that it allowed Jake Matthews to jab his head off. While I am backing Fialho to find the kill switch eventually, it won’t be a pretty affair against a more confident opponent at mid-distance. The physical decline on show against Jingliang Li suggests that the 38-year-old Russian may experience a damaging career twilight.
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Jack Della Maddalena vs Danny Roberts
Welterweight (170)
Jack Della Maddalena (12-2)
The true UFC Vegas 65 Main Event. Jack Della Maddalena threw stylistic worries to the side when he crushed Ramazan Emeev to a first-round TKO victory. Considering the difficulty that Roberts has with defensive footwork, the Aussie should be able to walk Roberts into a preferential firefight. As the more dynamic combination puncher with a penchant for bodywork, Roberts could be broken surprisingly early.
Danny Roberts (18-6)
Hot Chocolate cannot be written off in a solely striking affair. Roberts matched an in-form Zelim Imadaev for two enthralling rounds before finding the finish. More interesting would be Roberts’ inclusion of takedowns. Not that Roberts is an efficient takedown artist, but the threat alone could create enough questions for Maddelena to blunt his front-foot danger.
Maddalena vs Roberts Prediction: Maddalena TKO Round 2
Considering the difficulty that Roberts has with defensive footwork, the Aussie should be able to walk Roberts into a preferential firefight. As the more dynamic combination puncher with a penchant for bodywork, Roberts could be broken surprisingly early. Hot Chocolate isn’t an efficient takedown artist, but the threat alone could create enough questions for Maddelena to blunt his front-foot danger. More likely is that Maddalena implements a pace that the Brit can no longer match.
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UFC Vegas 65: Preliminary Card
Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs Charles Johnson
Flyweight (125)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-7)
Zhumagulov sits on a 1-4 record in the UFC, with that sole win coming over Jerome Rivera – a fighter who himself owns a 0-4 record. Zhako isn’t necessarily ageing like cheese outside on a summer’s day, more that he has never been a special Flyweight. Incredibly durable, Zhumagulov needs his wrestling to fire to shave rounds against opponents.
Charles Johnson (11-3)
Johnson performed admirably against Muhammed Mokaev, considering the tailor-made match-up for Mokaev. Johnson was thoroughly out-wrestled by Mokaev, but he showed heart and ability in returning to his feet. This could be a razor-thin decision based on how relentlessly Zhumagulov pursues takedowns. On the feet, though, Johnson can ply away with straight shots.
Zhumagulov vs Johnson Prediction: Johnson Decision
Johnson was thoroughly out-wrestled by Mokaev, but he showed a deep gas tank and the ability to return to his feet. This could be a razor-thin decision based on how relentlessly Zhumagulov pursues takedowns. On the feet, though, Johnson can ply away with straight shots – even if he is highly unlikely to crack Zhako’s granite chin.
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Jennifer Maia vs Maryna Moroz
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Jennifer Maia (19-9-1)
A reminder that Jennifer Maia once had a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko. The Brazilian has since lived off of the one round that Maia grasped off Shevchenko. In a rare match-up where Maia can match the pace of her opponent, her unbreakable chin and physical grappling could well grind down Moroz.
Maryna Moroz (11-3)
Moroz returned to the octagon with a spectacular bang following her two-round dismantling of the dangerous yet flawed Mariya Agapova. The Ukrainian is a consistent leader in the cage, able to set about her game plan with ease. Even so, it will tax Moroz to operate off the back foot for the full fifteen minutes. The red flag remains that Moroz has struggled to keep herself standing earlier in her career, largely owing to her average physicality.
Maia vs Moroz Prediction: Maia Decision
In a rare match-up where Maia can match the pace of her opponent, her unbreakable chin and physical grappling could well grind down Moroz. The Ukrainian has struggled to keep herself standing throughout her career and will be taxed hard as she is forced to operate off the back foot for the full fifteen minutes. Maia has shown in recent fights that she can be frozen into hopeless kickboxing affairs, but Moroz lacks the defensive swiftness to fully punish Maia’s lacking fight IQ.
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Miles Johns vs Vince Morales
Bantamweight (135)
Miles Johns (12-2)
Miles Johns has found mixed success in the UFC after seemingly departing from his wrestling base. There is decent evidence to back Johns’ recent love affair with his hands – stunning knockouts over Kevin Natividad and Anderson dos Santos prove this. Morales is a slicker boxer, but Johns’ low kicks could enact similar punishment as Jonathan Martinez.
Vince Morales (11-6)
To repeat, Morales’ kryptonite is well and truly proven to be low kicks. Chris Gutierrez and Jonathan Martinez both stripped Morales of his skilful pocket boxing by chewing up his lead leg. If Morales fights passively at distance, Johns’ carries the power to dictate early exchanges and bank early rounds.
Johns vs Morales Prediction: Johns Decision
Chris Gutierrez and Jonathan Martinez both stripped Morales of his skilful pocket boxing by chewing up his lead leg. If Morales fights passively at distance, Johns’ carries the power to dictate early exchanges and bank early rounds. Still, Morales has regularly shown the ability to rally late into contests while Johns continues to struggle to implement his underutilised wrestling base.
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Ricky Turcios vs Kevin Natividad
Bantamweight (135)
Ricky Turcios (11-3)
TUF victor, Ricky Turcios, was picked apart by Aiemann Zahabi for three uninteresting rounds. Turcios laid down a ferocious pace, throwing over 235 strikes, but his 11% accuracy highlights the major flaw. Turcios, simply, needs to sit into his punches and commit to exchanges.
Kevin Natividad (9-3)
Kevin Natividad has taken a year and a half on the sidelines after a brutal first-round knockout loss to Danaa Batgerel. For whatever strange reason, Natividad has banked on his flakey chin in stand-up affairs over his two UFC fights. If Quicksand is to extend his stay with the UFC, the 29-year-old desperately needs to streamline fights towards his ground game.
Turcios vs Natividad Prediction: Turcios Decision
TUF victor, Ricky Turcios, was picked apart by Aiemann Zahabi over three uninteresting rounds where he landed just 11% of his 235 strikes. Turcios, simply, needs to sit into his punches and commit to exchanges. Even without any fundamental changes, Natividad is a winnable fight off the back of his refusal to fight on the fight.
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Maria Oliveira vs Vanessa Demopoulos
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Maria Oliveira (13-5)
Spider Girl has proven herself to be a surprisingly fun fighter considering her imposing frame and willingness to unload heavy volume. Oliveira’s lacking TDD and loss of form over extended exchanges indicate the type of flaw that Vanessa Demopoulos will have no issue exploiting.
Vanessa Demopoulos (8-4)
Vanessa Demopolous is aggressive but technically devoid on the feet. The Greek also struggles to take opponents down, but could probably scrape a takedown against Oliveira. On the mat, Demopoulos is creative and a willing submission artist.
Oliveira vs Demopolous Prediction: Oliveira Decision
A difficult fight to call considering the major flaws of both fighters. Spider Girl owns an imposing frame and a willingness to unload heavy volume. Oliveira’s lacking TDD and loss of form over extended exchanges suggest an area that Vanessa Demopoulos can exploit. Demopoulos by submission or Oliveira to out-work the Greek over the stretch.
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Fernie Garcia vs Brady Hiestand
Bantamweight (135)
Fernie Garcia (10-2)
Garcia carries a ton of power but lacks the tools to draw opponents onto his punches. The Mexican was picked apart at range by Journey Newson’s kicking game, but Hiestand will rush head-first into takedowns.
Brady Hiestand (5-2)
A ferocious grappler, Hiestand likely lacks the chin to continue such a game plan up the ladder. Garcia could spark the 23-year-old early doors, but his inability to break a chinny Journey Newsom leaves me backing Hiestand laying down a clinic on the mat.
Garcia vs Hiestand Prediction: Hiestand Decision
A ferocious grappler, Hiestand likely lacks the chin to continue such a game plan up the ladder. Against Fernie Garcia, a heavy-handed boxer, the 23-year-old could be starched early doors in pursuit of takedowns. It’s always safer to back the aggressive, proven wrestler, however.
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Natalia Silva vs Tereza Bleda
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Natalia Silva (13-5-1)
At just 25 years old, the world looked at Silva’s feet after humiliating Jasmine Jasudavicius. Denying Jasudavicus of all six takedowns, landing almost triple the strikes on the feet and incorporating two of her own takedowns – it was a performance that Silva had yet to produce in her career.
Tereza Bleda (6-0)
If Bleda cannot incorporate her ground game, she will struggle to bully Silva in a manner that she become accustomed to over her short career. Bleda is just 20 years old, a phenomenal athlete and capable of shutting-out opponents on the mat. Bleda is very hittable on the feet, however, to the extent that she seems set to swallow a couple of losses before addressing the gaps in the skillset.
Silva vs Bleda Prediction: Bleda Decision
At just 25 years old, the world looked at Silva’s feet after humiliating Jasmine Jasudavicius. Denying Jasudavicus of all six takedowns, landing almost triple the strikes on the feet and incorporating two of her own takedowns – it was a performance that Silva had yet to produce in her career. Bleda, however, is a phenomenal athlete and capable of shutting-out opponents on the mat. Despite the Czech prospect being very hittable on the feet, the athletic gap feels like a bridge too far.
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Pintsized Interests is just a baby finding its first steps in the big, bad world of sports journalism. If you enjoy the content that is regularly uploaded then please consider donating via the link below. Any amount is greatly appreciated, and will go towards ensuring the survival of Pintsized Interests in the long-term.