UFC 281 Predictions, Odds and Results: Adesanya vs Pereira
UFC 281 Pintsized Background
Alex Pereira left it as late as possible, but ladies and gentlemen, we have our main event! UFC 281 has all the trimmings to offer the card of the year. The UFC Middleweight Championship is up for grabs for the winner of the historic kickboxing rivalry between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira. UFC 281’s entire main card is fire, including names a Strawweight title fight, a striking clinic between Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler, and the last dance for Frankie Edgar.
UFC 281’s featured preliminary pits Renato Moicano and Brad Riddell is a high-action striking affair. The star power starts to fade lower down the UFC 281 prelims, but all the matches should provide entertainment – even the messy Light Heavyweight opener between Carlos Ulberg and Nicolae Negumereanu.
Where/When is UFC 281 taking place:
November 12, 2022. Madison Square Garden. New York, United States.
What time does UFC 281 start:
🇬🇧 UK: 11pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 6pm
What channel is UFC 281 on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
🚀 Preview: UFC Vegas 64 Predictions, Odds and Results: Rodriguez vs Lemos
💰 PI’s Recommended Fight: Polyana Viana vs Jinh Yu Frey
Travel down the Pintsized rabbit hole:
🥊 UFC 281 Main Card | 🌟 UFC 281 Prelims | 📺 YouTube
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UFC 281 Picks & Odds
| UFC 281 Odds | UFC 281 Predictions |
|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira Prediction: (-210) / (+180) | Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira Prediction: Adesanya Decision |
| Carla Esparza vs Weili Zhang Prediction: (+130) / (-150) | Carla Esparza vs Weili Zhang Prediction: Zhang TKO Round 4 |
| Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler Prediction: (-200) / (+170) | Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler Prediction: Poirier TKO Round 3 |
| Frankie Edgar vs Chris Gutierrez Prediction: (+185) / (-215) | Frankie Edgar vs Chris Gutierrez Prediction: Edgar Decision |
| Dan Hooker vs Claudio Puelles Prediction: (-145) / (+125) | Dan Hooker vs Claudio Puelles Prediction: Hooker TKO Round 1 |
| Renato Moicano vs Brad Riddell Prediction: (-120) / (+100) | Renato Moicano vs Brad Riddell Prediction: Riddell Decision |
| Dominick Reyes vs Ryan Spann Prediction: (-205) / (+175) | Dominick Reyes vs Ryan Spann Prediction: Reyes TKO Round 2 |
| Erin Blanchfield vs Molly McCann Prediction: (-390) / (+320) | Erin Blanchfield vs Molly McCann Prediction: Blanchfield Decision |
| Andre Petroski vs Wellington Turman Prediction: (-195) / (+165) | Andre Petroski vs Wellington Turman Prediction: Petroski Submission Round 1 |
| Ottman Azaitar vs Matt Frevola Prediction: (-125) / (+105) | Ottman Azaitar vs Matt Frevola Prediction: Azaitar TKO Round 1 |
| Kowalkiewicz vs Gomez Juarez Prediction: (-110) / (-110) | Kowalkiewicz vs Gomez Juarez Prediction: Kowalkiewicz Decision |
| Mike Trizano vs Seung Woo Choi Prediction: (+140) / (-165) | Mike Trizano vs Seung Woo Choi Prediction: Choi Decision |
| Julio Arce vs Montel Jackson Prediction: (+170) / (-200) | Julio Arce vs Montel Jackson Prediction: Arce Decision |
| Carlos Ulberg vs Nicolae Negumereanu Prediction: (-130) / (+110) | Carlos Ulberg vs Nicolae Negumereanu Prediction: Negumereanu Decision |
UFC 281: Main Event
Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira
Middleweight (185)
UFC Middleweight Championship
Israel Adesanya (23-1)
I’d hate to remind all of you fine folks, but Israel Adesanya is one of the UFC’s longest-reigning champions for a reason. The Stylebender is a phenomenally composed striker and consummate game planner. Adesanya has conquered wrestlers (Derek Brunson, Marvin Vettori x2), strikers (Paulo Costa, Jared Cannonier) and everything in between (Sir Bobert Knuckles).
The twist, however, is Adesanya is set to face his boogeyman. Alex Pereira holds two victories over Adesanya, including a knockout reel that has plagued Izzy on social media over his entire career. For all the corny one-liners and posturing in press conferences, Adesanya can be rattled – will the ghosts of the past influence Adesanya’s approach?
Probably not, no. Adesanya’s wrestling is certainly an underrated aspect of his kit, but it is largely defensive strength. Rather, Adesanya could cause Pereira some trouble in the clinch – an area in that we have seen the Kiwi’s success against Kelvin Gastellum. Pereira is a different physical hurdle to handle in the clinch, considering his size, but he was also dominated by Andreas Michailidis.
Alex Pereira (6-1)
Even though we all expected the UFC to tailor a path for Pereira towards the title, it was still an impressive streak for Poatan’s shot at Adesanya. Despite all the memes, Strickland’s pressure has proven far too much for experienced Middleweights like Jack Hermansson and Uriah Hall. Pereira, however, comfortably feinted off the back foot before finding his killer one-shot left hook.
Once again, we cannot overlook the five minutes of ease with which Michailidis pinned Pereira to the cage. Adesanya is deeply defensive of his belt and is willing to win by any means necessary. Fan’s collective PTSD from the Adesanya-Romero title fight should be a sobering enough reminder. Don’t be surprised if we see a low-volume stand-off in the opening rounds before Adesanya grinds out a stinker.
To return to a more positive note, Pereira’s hands are pure granite. There is the occasional flourish of dynamism to his striking i.e. the flying knee that iced Michailidis. The bread and butter of his arsenal is the left hook. Masked behind his feints and impossible to gauge due to the length of his arms, even a defensive savant such as Adesanya should steer clear of Pereira’s left hook.
Adesanya vs Pereira Prediction: Adesanya Decision
Adesanya finally faces his boogeyman. Alex Pereira holds two victories over Adesanya, including a knockout reel that has plagued Izzy on social media over his entire career. For a champion so defensive of his belt and such a consummate game planner, don’t be surprised if Adesanya swallows the boos to grind Pereira against the cage. Andreas Michailidis dominated Poatan for an entire round in the clinch, after all.
Not to write off Adesanya controlling the striking affair, either. Pereira owns a monster left and a freakishly long frame, but he does leave his mid-rift open. Considering Adesanya’s arsenal of range weapons, the Kiwi has a shot at nullifying Poatan throughout 25-minutes. It does seem a little foolish, however, to roll those dice against an opponent who has proven to own one-shot KO power over you.
This isn’t a shut-and-closed case. Adesanya will have to dig very deep to work around Pereira’s nuclear-left hook. I just feel like the variety that Adesanya offers will ask questions about Pereira’s gas tank that is yet to be proven in the sphere of MMA.
UFC 281: Co-Main Event
Carla Esparza vs Weili Zhang
Women’s Strawweight (115)
UFC Strawweight Championship
Carla Esparza (19-6)
Not feeling this fight. While it was pleasing to see Carla Esparza clinch the UFC title once again, it resulted from a fight with Rose Namajunas that I refuse to watch again. A relentless chain wrestler, Esparza found almost no success on the mat against Thug Rose yet won based on intent/ activity. A failed wrestling approach won’t work against Zhang considering her rare freak power in the division.
Weili Zhang (22-3)
For a fighter who earned her name en route to the Strawweight title by delivering violence on the feet, Zhang has largely fallen onto her wrestling to win. Esparza is the best technical wrestler in the division, but Zhang is a physical beast. Zhang has been pinned to the mat in the past, suggesting Esparza could claim an entire round of control time. Magnum doesn’t fade late into fights, however, and has a vast advantage on the feet if/when Esparza’s takedowns stop firing.
Esparza vs Zhang Prediction: Zhang TKO Round 4
A relentless chain wrestler, Esparza found almost no success on the mat against Thug Rose yet won based on intent/ activity. Cookie Monster remains the best technical wrestler in the division, however, and is primed to claim entire rounds of control time against Zhang. Two issues are Zhang’s freak physicality and ability to catch a second wind. At a certain point, Zhang will make the most of her vast advantage on the feet once Esparza’s takedowns stop firing.
UFC 281: Main Card
Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler
Lightweight (155)
Dustin Poirier (28-7)
How can a fighter KO Conor McGregor back-to-back and still fail to emerge as a superstar? Poirier is deemed a heavy favourite off the cuff against Chandler as the former is a proven late-round threat. In the first layer of striking exchanges, Chandler’s power and speed will beat Poirier to the punch. The Diamond is durable, however, and excels when extending combinations in the pocket. Moreover, Poirier’s awkward cross-guard will cause Chandler headaches once he starts to slow.
Michael Chandler (23-7)
Chandler’s aims remain firmly set on the UFC crown. Beating the 2022-version of Tony Ferguson isn’t all that impressive, but knocking T-Ferg out does underline Chandler’s ferocious power. If Chandler operates off the back foot, he could punish The Diamond on the counter. There is also the wrestling angle, but there is a reason Iron Mike rarely shoots for takedowns these days – the gas tank just ain’t up for it, chief.
Poirier vs Chandler Prediction: Poirier TKO Round 3
Chandler’s early round threat on the feet has the possibility to catch Poirier cold. The speed and power differential in the first round will be stark, but it isn’t the safest route to back. Rather, Poirier’s awkward cross-guard will create headaches for Chandler alongside a deep gas tank that will punish a notorious fader. Lest we forget Iron Mike’s wrestling avenue, but once he finds early success on the feet he will chase the finish.
Frankie Edgar vs Chris Gutierrez
Bantamweight (135)
Frankie Edgar (24-10-1)
Can Frankie Edgar snap his 2-loss streak with a victorious retirement? The former Lightweight champion has seen his chin and physical gifts fall off a cliff. Two worrying red flags for a fighter that now leans more heavily on wrestling for a safe victory. If he chases a similar game plan as the Marlon Vera fight, Edgar has a shout. The veteran can maintain a decent pace that could keep Gutierrez restricted, who lacks the dynamism to produce a Vera-esque front kick.
Chris Gutierrez (18-3-2)
Man, Chris Gutierrez is a big ask for a declining 41-year-old. El Guapo is a ferocious leg kicker, opening the avenue for an Edgar takedown but more likely to continually punish the veteran’s jab. Gutierrez has been pinned to the mat before; the 31-year-old struggled against Cody Durden’s relentless takedown attempts and Raoni Barcelos’ technical top game. My heart demands me to back Frankie for one last hurrah, but this is a cruel sport that offers no respite for faded veterans.
Edgar vs Gutierrez Prediction: Edgar Decision
The former Lightweight champion has seen his chin and physical gifts fall off a cliff. Two worrying red flags for a fighter that now leans more heavily on wrestling for a safe victory. Gutierrez has been pinned to the mat before; the 31-year-old struggled against Cody Durden’s relentless takedown attempts and Raoni Barcelos’ technical top game. We will most likely see Gutierrez tear apart Edgar’s lead leg. Still, I’m going with my heart and backing Edgar for one last hurrah.
Dan Hooker vs Claudio Puelles
Featherweight (145)
Dan Hooker (21-12)
With just the decision victory over Nasrat Haqparast to split four losses in his last five fights, Dan Hooker may be starting to regress. On the one hand, Hooker is fighting the top names in the division and often on late notice. On the other, Hooker’s style has caused him to eat a great deal of damage – both in camp and in the octagon. A big step-down in competition is the best litmus test for Hooker’s future, however. Puelles is incapable of applying pressure on the feet like Arnold Allen, nor does he own the wrestling kit to impose his grappling.
Claudio Puelles (12-2)
/It seems like there should be far more fanfare for a random Peruvian that has consecutive kneebars over veterans. Granted, Puelles was battered black and blue for almost three rounds by Chris Gruetzemacher before pulling off the hail mary submission. Such a lethal dynamism can never be written off against a hot-headed, risk-taker in Hooker. This fight seems destined to stay on the feet, however, and should see the Kiwi blast Puelles to the shadow realm./
Hooker vs Puelles Prediction: Hooker TKO Round 1
A big step-down in competition is the best litmus test for Hooker’s future. Puelles is a dynamic submission artist, consecutive kneebars prove this. Unfortunately for the Peruvian, he lacks the wrestling tools needed to create his preferred fight on the mat. This fight seems destined to stay on the feet and see the Kiwi blast Puelles to the shadow realm.
UFC 281: Preliminary Card
Renato Moicano vs Brad Riddell
Lightweight (155)
Renato Moicano (16-5-1)
Two submission victories in a row had Renato Moicano skyrocketing to the hype of pre-Jose Aldo. Stepping up against an over-the-hill RDA, however, saw Moicano hit his ceiling once again. Moicano still struggles with pressure on the feet, more so as the Brazilian lacks the wrestling outlet to transition to his slick grappling. Facing off against Riddell’s conservative counter-punching, Moicano will benefit from the freedom to set the pace and lead off the front foot.
Brad Riddell (10-3)
Watching Riddell get walked over by Jalin Turner was a sad state of affairs. Moicano isn’t as potent on the feet, however, which suggests Riddell’s typically slow start won’t be punished. After consecutive stoppage losses, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Riddell dig into his wrestling. It was only a year ago that Riddell sat Drew Dober on his arse five times over their fight.
Moicano vs Riddell Prediction: Riddell Decision
Facing off against Riddell’s conservative counter-punching, Moicano will benefit from the freedom to set the pace and lead off the front foot. Unfortunately for the Brazilian, he lacks the wrestling outlet to transition to his slick grappling. Rather, Riddell could add in his ground game – it was only a year ago that Riddell sat Drew Dober on his arse five times over their fight. Once Riddell has made his reads, the Kiwi should break Moicano mentally.
Dominick Reyes vs Ryan Spann
Light Heavyweight (205)
Dominick Reyes (12-3)
The cardio machine has spent the past year and a half on the sidelines after a crushing second-round knockout loss to Jiri Prochazka. It’s been quite the decline for Reyes, who many felt had beaten Jon Jones back in 2020. Sitting on a three-fight slide, Reyes could well be broken goods at this point. Ryan Spann has so many glaring holes in his game, however, that it may not even matter.
Ryan Spann (20-7)
Imma level with you chief, Ryan Spann is kinda mid. Snapping Ion Cutelaba in a first-round guillotine looks impressive on paper, but this is the same fighter who was shut down by Anthony Smith. Spann’s victory over the aggressive little Moldovan largely came from Cutelaba’s reckless takedowns. Superman, if anything, has heavy hands. Even up in the top 15 of the division, that is sadly enough to count at 205lbs.
Reyes vs Spann Prediction: Reyes TKO Round 2
Spann’s victory over the aggressive little Moldovan largely came from Cutelaba’s reckless takedowns. Still, Superman carries heavy hands. Against Reyes, who has sat on the sidelines for a year and a half, it may be enough to count. I’d like to think that Reyes has recuperated from his losses against the division’s elite and will illuminate the gulf in class between himself and Spann.
Erin Blanchfield vs Molly McCann
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Erin Blanchfield (9-1)
Rocketing on a 3-fight streak in the UFC, the 23-year-old is fast growing into an easy marketing tool for the UFC’s Women’s divisions. McCann is riding a similar wave of confidence, but the match-makers seem keen to cash in on the outspoken Scouser. Blanchfield is a strong takedown artist, varying trips and throws, and could replicate similarly dominant performances as Taila Santos and Lara Procopio.
Molly McCann (13-4)
Well, well, well, if it ain’t the return of the spinning elbow Queen. McCann, to her credit, has amassed a sizeable fanbase off the coattails of Paddy Pimblett. An achievement in itself for a fighter who has been in the UFC since 2018. McCann is an aggressive striker on the feet, planting her feet from the get-go. The Scouser could certainly buzz Blanchfield early and throw her young foe off her game plan. More likely is that McCann walks herself into a takedown.
Blanchfield vs McCann Prediction: Blanchfield Decision
McCann is riding a similar wave of confidence, but the match-makers seem keen to cash in on the outspoken Scouser. Blanchfield is a strong takedown artist, varying trips and throws, and could replicate similarly dominant performances as Taila Santos and Lara Procopio. Meatball carries enough power and early aggression to buzz Blanchfield, but it’s more likely the Liverpudlian walks herself into a takedown.
Andre Petroski vs Wellington Turman
Middleweight (185)
Andre Petroski (8-1)
The first step up in Andre Petroski’s UFC career. Petroski is an entertaining one-round threat but has no real ability to control his gas tank. The TUF competitor explodes on everything – overhands, power doubles, speculative submissions. Wellington Turman just so happens to start slow and carry a flakey chin to boot.
Wellington Turman (18-5)
In fairness to Turman, he looked all but finished after Andrew Sanchez and Bruno Silva slept him. Wins over Sam Alvey and Misha Cirkunov aren’t stellar scalps, but they proved there is life left in the big leagues for The Prodigy. Can Turman survive the first round against Petroski?
Petroski vs Turman Prediction: Petroski Submission Round 1
Petroski is an entertaining one-round threat but has no real ability to control his gas tank. The TUF competitor explodes on everything – overhands, power doubles, speculative submissions. Wellington Turman just so happens to start slow and carry a flakey chin to boot.
Ottman Azaitar vs Matt Frevola
Lightweight (155)
Ottman Azaitar (13-0)
Ottman Azaitar has really been out of the octagon since September 2020. Scheduled to fight Matt Frevola in January 2021, Azaitar truly bided his time to make the same fight in November 2022. It’s no wonder with Azaitar’s frightening power and Frevola’s early struggles with pressure strikers.
Matt Frevola (9-3-1)
Matt Frevola owns the far more rounded skillset and if he can survive a horrifyingly difficult first round, Steamrolla will thrive. Frevola’s chin is a paradox. Frevola can be slept in the first minute when he is cold, but as he grows into a fight, the 32-year-old can thrive in a war.
Azaitar vs Frevola Prediction: Azaitar TKO Round 1
Matt Frevola owns the more rounded skillset meaning if he can survive a horrifyingly difficult first round, Steamrolla will thrive. Unfortunately, his kryptonite is aggressive, early strikers. Ottman Azaitar can find his range on the first punch – expecting an immediate sleeping.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Silvana Gomez Juarez
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (13-7)
Kowalkiewicz cannot yet be deemed back in form after beating an equally broken, Felice Herrig. Hopefully, the Pole has gained some confidence back in her skillset. The 37-year-old is unlikely to make any sort of run back towards the title, but her fluid striking has been missed in the division.
Silvana Gomez Juarez (11-4)
I was a little harsh on Gomez before her UFC debut. Her power was without doubt, but the Argentinian’s TDD held up surprisingly well against a solid-ish wrestler. Whether Gomez has the power to sleep Kowalkiewicz is questionable – the Pole has only been stopped by the granite-handed Jessica Andrade.
Kowalkiewicz vs Gomez Juarez Prediction: Kowalkiewicz Decision
I’m not sure how much stock can be put into beating Felice Herrig, but one can hope that Kowalkiewicz has regained some confidence in her skill set. Both women meet at a crossroads fight considering their 37 years of age. The main question will be whether Gomez has the power to sleep Kowalkiewicz – questionable, considering the Pole has only been stopped by the granite-handed Jessica Andrade.
Mike Trizano vs Seung Woo Choi
Featherweight (145)
Mike Trizano (9-3)
After a thoroughly dominant return to the UFC against L’udovit Klein, Trizano has fallen apart against Hakeem Dawodu and Lucas Almeida. Trizano is falling away from his commanding jab that dictated proceedings against Klein. Moreover, Trizano has struggled to maintain pace with opponents – striking at effectively half of the significant strikes of Dawodu and Almeida.
Seung Woo Choi (10-5)
Stronger, faster and more technically sound, Choi’s greatest issue has been the mental scars from the Alex Caceres loss. Without facing sweltering pressure or volume, Choi will be free to work his way into the fight on the feet. For a man who likes to impose his frame, Trizano’s style seems well suited for the Korean.
Trizano vs Woo Choi Prediction: Choi Decision
Trizano has struggled to maintain pace with recent opponents, striking at effectively half of the significant strikes of Hakeem Dawodu and Lucas Almeida. Allowing Choi the freedom to work his way into the fight and impose his frame seems like a surefire way to get the South Korean back to winning ways.
Julio Arce vs Montel Jackson
Bantamweight (135)
Julio Arce (18-5)
The win-one-lose-on fighter comes into the octagon on Saturday night riding a W! The cursed streak may continue again, but this also feels like a winnable fight. Arce is a difficult fighter to tie to the mat, even considering Jackson’s past success against Felipe Colares and JP buys. In a pure striking affair, Arce will be vulnerable to Jackson’s power but the former is far more willing to consistently trade.
Montel Jackson (11-2)
A couple of years ago, this would have felt like the perfect test for a growing Montel Jackson. It just feels like the American has not synced together his sum of parts since the loss to Brett Johns. There isn’t much confidence on the feet despite the power that he carries and technical slickness.
Arce vs Jackson Prediction: Arce Decision
A couple of years ago, this would have felt like the perfect test for a growing Montel Jackson. It just feels like the American has not synced together his sum of parts since the loss to Brett Johns. Arce is a difficult fighter to tie to the mat, even considering Jackson’s past success against Felipe Colares and JP buys. In a pure striking affair, Arce will be vulnerable to Jackson’s power but the former is far more willing to consistently trade.
Carlos Ulberg vs Nicolae Negumereanu
Light Heavyweight (205)
Carlos Ulberg (6-1)
Stupid, sexy Carlos Ulberg. The Light Heavyweight is a kickboxer-to-MMA work in progress, but a first-round starching of Tafon Nchukwi highlighted an initiative that hadn’t yet been seen. Ulberg will struggle against Negumereanu for the sheer fact that the Romanian’s chin is simply unbreakable. The fight will revolve around whether Ulberg can maintain his gas tank through fifteen minutes while working off the back foot.
Nicolae Negumereanu (13-1)
Nicu is on a four-fight winning streak. Yes, Nicolae Negumereanu. This is the fighter who was handled with ease by Saparbeg Safarov. Such is LHW, I guess. Negumereanu is a relentless plodder who breaks opponents down. Ulberg hits hard, but so do Kennedy Nzechukwu and Ihor Potieria.
Ulberg vs Negumereanu Prediction: Negumereanu Decision
Nicu is on a four-fight winning streak, and I can’t quite believe it, but I’m back him to stretch it. Ulberg will struggle against Negumereanu for the sheer fact that the Romanian’s chin is simply unbreakable. The fight will revolve around whether Ulberg can maintain his gas tank through fifteen minutes while working off the back foot. Of course, an argument could be made that Ulberg cracks hard, but so do Kennedy Nzechukwu and Ihor Potieria – believe the Nicu hype train.
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