UFC Vegas 64 Predictions, Odds and Results: Rodriguez vs Lemos
UFC Vegas 64 Pintsized Background
Well, UFC Vegas 64 may be the most cursed card of the year. A record-tying four fighters missed weight on the scales: Grant Dawson, Benito Lopez, Carlos Candelario and Ramona Pascual. Losing Bryce Mitchell and Movsar Evloev as the Main Event is a sad state of affairs, but there’s still lots to talk about for UFC Vegas 64 Predictions.
UFC Vegas 64’s new headliner involves a Women’s Strawweight top-contender bout between Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos. The co-main, Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez, appears far more alluring. Magny finds himself in career decline while Daniel Rodriguez needs a statement win to earn himself the big-name fights.
Down on the UFC Vegas 64 prelims, submission threat Darrick Minner takes on the vastly experienced Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. The true gem of the undercard involves Mario Bautista and Benito Lopez in a solid unranked Bantamweight affair.
Where/When is UFC Vegas 64 taking place:
November 5, 2022. UFC Apex. Nevada, United States.
What time does UFC Vegas 64 start:
🇬🇧 UK: 8pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 3pm
What channel is UFC Vegas 64 on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
🚀 Preview: UFC Vegas 63 Predictions, Odds and Results: Kattar vs Allen
💰 PI’s Recommended Fight: Roman Dolidze vs Phil Hawes
Travel down the Pintsized rabbit hole:
🥊 UFC Vegas 64 Main Card | 🌟 UFC Vegas 64 Prelims | 📺 YouTube
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UFC Vegas 64 Picks & Odds
| UFC Vegas 64 Odds | UFC Vegas 64 Predictions | UFC Vegas 64 Results |
|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos Odds: (-225) / (+190) | Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos Prediction: Marina Rodriguez Decision | Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos Result: Lemos def. Rodriguez TKO R3 |
| Neil Magny vs Daniel Rodriguez Odds: (-120) / (+100) | Neil Magny vs Daniel Rodriguez Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez Decision | Neil Magny vs Daniel Rodriguez Result: Magny def. Rodriguez SUB R3 |
| Josh Parisian vs Chase Sherman Odds: (+125) / (-145) | Josh Parisian vs Chase Sherman Prediction: Chase Sherman TKO Round 1 | Josh Parisian vs Chase Sherman Result: FIGHT CANCELLED |
| Tagir Ulanbekov vs Nate Maness Odds: (-225) / (+190) | Tagir Ulanbekov vs Nate Maness Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov Decision | Tagir Ulanbekov vs Nate Maness Result: Ulanbekov def. Maness SUB R1 |
| Mark Madsen vs Grant Dawson Odds: (+180) / (-210) | Mark Madsen vs Grant Dawson Prediction: Grant Dawson Decision | Mark Madsen vs Grant Dawson Result: Dawson def. Madsen SUB R3 |
| Darrick Minner vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Odds: (+185) / (-215) | Darrick Minner vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Prediction: Darrick Minner Submission Round 1 | Darrick Minner vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Result: Nuerdanbieke def. Minner TKO R1 |
| Miranda Maverick vs Shanna Young Odds: (-700) / (+510) | Miranda Maverick vs Shanna Young Prediction: Miranda Maverick Submission Round 1 | Miranda Maverick vs Shanna Young Result: Maverick def. Young UD |
| Mario Bautista vs Benito Lopez Odds: (-350) / (+290) | Mario Bautista vs Benito Lopez Prediction: Mario Bautista Decision | Mario Bautista vs Benito Lopez Result: Bautista def. Lopez SUB R1 |
| Jinh Yu Frey vs Polyana Viana Odds: (+120) / (-140) | Jinh Yu Frey vs Polyana Viana Prediction: Polyana Viana Decision | Jinh Yu Frey vs Polyana Viana Result: Viana def. Frey KO R1 |
| Johnny Munoz Jr vs Liudvik Shonlinian Odds: (-255) / (+215) | Johnny Munoz Jr vs Liudvik Shonlinian Prediction: Liudvik Shonlinian Decision | Johnny Munoz Jr vs Liudvik Shonlinian Result: Munoz Jr def. Shonlinian UD |
| Jake Hadley vs Carlos Candelario Odds: (-260) / (+220) | Jake Hadley vs Carlos Candelario Prediction: Jake Hadley Submission Round 3 | Jake Hadley vs Carlos Candelario Result: Hadley def. Candelario SUB R3 |
| Ramona Pascual vs Tamires Vidal Odds: (+105) / (-125) | Ramona Pascual vs Tamires Vidal Prediction: Tamires Vidal TKO Round 2 | Ramona Pascual vs Tamires Vidal Result: Vidal def. Pascual TKO R2 |
UFC Vegas 64: Main Event
Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2)
Marina Rodriguez remains a flawed fighter – not least her shoddy TDD and lack of boxing fundamentals. Losing periods of a striking affair to Yan Xiaonan is a huge red flag, even if Rodriguez was able to hard-nose her way to victory back in March 2022. The Brazilian’s greatest success stems from her relentless pressure and willingness to eat shots to close distance.
In fairness to Rodriguez, her physical stature and powerful kicks often paper over the cracks in her game. Considering Amanda Lemos has proven so easy to hit in the UFC, Rodriguez’s chin and weapons across ranges lead into her preferred gritty fight.
Amanda Lemos (12-2-1)
Amanda Lemos may eat more shots than Marina Rodriguez, but the former’s plus power is the perfect equaliser to such a problem. Against Michelle Waterson, Lemos showed improvements to her timing and shot selection on the counter.
There remain issues with balance and falling into her shots, however, which leaves Lemos stranded and so hittable. Lemos also tends to fade late into contests, lacking the tools to keep Rodriguez off of her in the championship rounds.
Rodriguez vs Lemos Prediction: Rodriguez Decision
Both Amanda Lemos and Marina Rodriguez eat a hell of a lot of damage, but the former’s plus power is the perfect equaliser to such a problem. Against Michelle Waterson, in fairness to Lemos, she showed improvements to her timing and shot selection on the counter. It’s hard to believe that Lemos’ power and athletic edge will catch Rodriguez early by surprise, however. Rodriguez’s chin is top quality, while her relentless pressure and solid gas tank will likely force Lemos to unravel on the feet by the championship rounds.
Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos Result: Lemos def. Rodriguez // TKO Round 3
Return to UFC Vegas 64 Fight Card
UFC Vegas 64: Co-Main Event
Neil Magny vs Daniel Rodriguez
Welterweight (170)
Neil Magny (26-9)
Neil Magny’s loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov may be the first indication of a brutal physical slide. The Haitian Sensation is exceptionally well-rounded, smartly using his long frame to dictate fights through his jab on the outside and size in the clinch. Magny’s greatest success has been his ability to adapt deep into fights, an area that Rodriguez flagged in during his last time out (granted, well above his normal fighting weight). The destruction against Rakhmonov, however, spoke as much to the Kazakh’s quality as it did to Magny’s waning ability at the top level.
Daniel Rodriguez (17-2)
It’s perhaps best to ignore Daniel Rodriguez’s last fight, owing to its truly last-minute rearrangement and unnatural weight class. The fight failed to answer questions we already knew of D-Rod anyway – he is a crafty boxer with exceptional timing and a consistent volume at range. Magny is the perfect test to see if Rodriguez can deal with Magny’s stifling clinch game, or better yet if he can punish Magny’s jab in a similar manner as Max Griffin.
Magny vs Rodriguez Prediction: Rodriguez Decision
The Haitian Sensation is exceptionally well-rounded, smartly using his long frame to dictate fights through his jab on the outside and size in the clinch. Magny’s greatest success has been his ability to adapt deep into fights, but there is a worry that we witnessed the start of a physical slide against Shavkat Rakhmonov. D-Rod is a crafty boxer with exceptional timing and a consistent volume at range, but the test will be whether Rodriguez can handle Magny’s stifling clinch game.
Neil Magny vs Daniel Rodriguez Result: Magny def. Rodriguez // SUB Round 3
Return to UFC Vegas 64 Fight Card
UFC Vegas 64: Main Card
Josh Parisian vs Chase Sherman
Heavyweight (265)
Josh Parisian (15-5)
Josh Parisian almost managed to lose a stylistic dream fight against Alan Baudot. Parisian was peppered on the feet by Baudot, as expected, but being dropped by the vastly undersized Frenchman provided a shocking red flag. Parisian’s wrestling threat is once again tailor-made to break a mentally fragile Chase Sherman on the mat, but the former’s striking pitfalls are too glaring to overlook.
Chase Sherman (16-10)
Mr hot-and-cold finally earned himself a morale-boosting victory over Jared Vanderaa. Granted, Vanderaa is a true bottom-of-the-barrel fighter, but The Vanilla Gorilla at least looked willing to fight. Sherman still looks unable to utilise his power effectively, but technically, he is leaps and bounds ahead of Parisian.
Parisian vs Sherman Prediction: Sherman TKO Round 2
The safest call is to back Josh Parisian gritting out a decision over a notoriously fragile fighter in Chase Sherman. Parisian’s wrestling threat is tailor-made to grind out Sherman mentally on the mat, but the former’s lack of any technical skill is too glaring to overlook. Alternatively, you could point towards Sherman’s inability to utilise his power effectively. Who knows, who cares type of fight?
Josh Parisian vs Chase Sherman Result: FIGHT CANCELLED
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Tagir Ulanbekov vs Nate Maness
Flyweight (125)
Tagir Ulanbekov (13-2)
Ulanbekov is a ferocious early-round threat who operates off the back of his relentless wrestling and racking up insurmountable control time. Ulanbekov met an equally dynamic ground threat in Tim Elliot, but few other Flyweights are so willing to engage on the mat as Elliot. Athletically, Ulanbekov is limited, but he owns a sharp boxing game that appears to be developing over his UFC tenure.
Nate Maness (14-2)
Nate Maness remains a constant powerful threat throughout a fight, whilst also owning a granite chin to wait for the prime opportunity. Unfortunately, Maness can often reach the final bell never having found the perfect time to land as he lacks functional range striking. Maness is slick in the pocket with surprising pop, but he can be kept at bay on the outside with slick enough footwork and volume.
Ulanbekov vs Maness Prediction: Ulanbekov Decision
Nate Maness remains a constant powerful threat throughout a fight, whilst also owning a granite chin to wait for the prime opportunity. Mayhem is also slick in the pocket with surprising pop, but he can be kept at bay on the outside with slick enough footwork and volume. Ulanbekov lacks the athletic gifts of Umar Nurmagomedov, yet his sharp boxing skillset and relentless wrestling are tools that can keep the Dagestani safe from Maness’ greatest weapons.
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Nate Maness Result: Ulanbekov def. Maness // SUB Round 1
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Mark Madsen vs Grant Dawson
Lightweight (155)
Mark Madsen (12-0)
The Olympian is a powerhouse wrestler, backed up by his Olympic silver medal, who has likely transitioned to MMA a little too late in his career. Conditioning issues often plague the Dane during the final rounds, although smarter decision-making saw Madsen dominate the third round against Vinc Pichel last time out.
Grant Dawson (18-1-1)
For all of the wrestling ability of Grant Dawson, the American has fallen in love with his hands over recent years. There’s a fair amount of power to be found, but his boxing still largely clings to Dawson’s plus athleticism rather than any technical points of note.
Madsen vs Dawson Prediction: Dawson Decision
For all of the wrestling ability of Grant Dawson, the American has fallen in love with his hands over recent years. There’s a fair amount of power to be found, but his boxing still largely clings to Dawson’s plus athleticism rather than any technical points of note. Meanwhile, Madsen offers equally potent wrestling, yet struggles to utilise his mediocre gas tank across the three rounds. Backing Dawson to better stamp his mark on what should be equally contested rounds.
Mark Madsen vs Grant Dawson Result: Dawson def. Madsen // SUB Round 3
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UFC Vegas 64: Preliminary Card
Darrick Minner vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Featherweight (145)
Darrick Minner (26-13)
Minner may be sitting on a two-fight slide but he represents an entertaining submission specialist on the mat. The long-time regional journeyman also tends to throw with full-blooded intent on the feet, often risking his questionable chin to land his own shots. Poor decision-making on the mat sees him lose strong positions in pursuit of submissions, but he also has a sneakily quiet 1-minute victory over Terrance McKinney.
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (37-10)
Wolverine remains a largely unknown quantity despite nearing over fifty fights under his belt – such is the quality of regional competition in Asia. A solid lay’n’pray wrestler, Nuerdanbieke could certainly walk into an early submission against Minner. It’s likely safer to back Nuerdanbieke riding out a decision after surviving Minner’s early threat – but the heart is overriding the brain.
Minner vs Nuerdanbieke Prediction: Minner Submission Round 1
Wolverine remains a largely unknown quantity despite nearing over fifty fights under his belt, such is the quality of regional competition in Asia. A solid lay’n’pray wrestler, it is likely safer to back Nuerdanbieke riding out a decision after surviving Minner’s early threat – but the heart is overriding the brain.
Darrick Minner vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Result: Nuerdanbieke def. Minner // SUB Round 3
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Miranda Maverick vs Shanna Young
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Miranda Maverick (10-4)
A relentless chain-wrestler, Maverick was able to re-piece her career with a relatively simple performance over the leaky TDD of Sabina Mazo. A strong grappler, granite chinned and deep gas tank all suggest that Maverick owns the tools to claw herself back towards the top-15 Flyweight rankings.
Shanna Young (8-4)
Fair play to Shanna Young. The Shanimal is a comedically limited fighter, yet her victory over Gina Mazany spoke to her grittiness and surprising improvement in her TDD. It still feels like Young has not developed to the extent to expect anything other than a repeat of Maverick’s first-round submission over Young in Invicta back in 2019.
Maverick vs Young Prediction: Maverick Submission Round 1
The Shanimal is a comedically limited fighter, yet her victory over Gina Mazany spoke to her grittiness and surprising improvement in her TDD. It still feels like Young has not developed her entire game to prevent anything other than a repeat of Maverick’s first-round submission over Young in Invicta back in 2019.
Miranda Maverick vs Shanna Young Result: Maverick def. Young // UD
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Mario Bautista vs Benito Lopez
Bantamweight (135)
Mario Bautista (10-2)
Mario Bautista shocked me when he managed to lock Brian Kelleher in a first-round rear-naked choke. The American was well known as a slick grappler on the mat, but Kelleher is a huge scalp in regards to an educated veteran with solid submission defence.
Benito Lopez (10-1)
Lopez has been out of the octagon since 2019, owing to injuries, but The Golden Boy is just 28 years old with enough time left to shake off the ring rust. Lopez has never felt comfortable in the clinch, however – unless Lopez has changed dramatically over the past few years.
Bautista vs Lopez Prediction: Bautista Decision
Lopez has been out of the octagon since 2019, owing to injuries, but The Golden Boy is just 28 years old with enough time left to shake off the ring rust. Lopez has never felt comfortable in the clinch, however – an area that Bautista excels. Bautista’s power on the feet should also cause early problems for Lopez too.
Mario Bautista vs Benito Lopez Result: Bautista def. Lopez // SUB Round 1
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Jinh Yu Frey vs Polyana Viana
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Jinh Yu Frey (11-7)
I have now come to terms that Jinh Yu Frey will be nothing more than a bit-piece player knocking around the door of the top 15. An adequate wrestler, Frey struggles physically as a blownup Atomweight. Tightened striking has levelled the field somewhat, but the athletic gap against many in the division is a difficult glass ceiling to smash.
Polyana Viana (12-5)
Frey really should win this tailor-made stylistic match-up by virtue of laying on top of Polyana Viana. After watching Frey fail to implement such a game plan against Vanessa Demopoulos, the Brazilian has to be considered the favourite based on a willingness to lead the fight alone.
Yu Frey vs Viana Prediction: Viana Decision
Frey really should win this tailor-made stylistic match-up by virtue of laying on top of Polyana Viana. After watching Frey fail to implement such a game plan against Vanessa Demopoulos, the Brazilian has to be considered the favourite based on a willingness to lead the fight alone. Frey is an ageing, blown-up Atomweight giving up too much weight to meet the UFC Strawweight division.
Jinh Yu Frey vs Polyana Viana Result: Viana def. Frey // KO Round 1
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Johnny Munoz Jr vs Liudvik Shonlinian
Bantamweight (135)
Johnny Munoz Jr (11-2)
Tony Gravely hits decently hard, but Munoz Jr’s knockout loss last time out speaks more of the Californian’s striking shortcomings than Gravely’s reincarnation as Mike Tyson. Munoz Jr is a slick grappler but he lacks the wrestling to brute force his way into his preferred fight.
Liudvik Shonlinian (9-2-1)
TUF competitor, Liudvik Shonlinian, lost his debut emphatically after a late-notice call-up to feed prospect, Jack Shore. Sholinian was controlled with relative ease against the cage but proved relatively difficult to takedown as the contest drew on against Shore. Shonlinian is similarly poor as Munoz Jr on the feet but is a nuisance to shift if he bundles his way to top control.
Munoz Jr vs Shonlinian Prediction: Shonlinian Decision
Munoz Jr is a slick grappler but he lacks the wrestling to brute force his way into his preferred fight. Shonlinian lost his debut emphatically to Jack Shore but proved relatively difficult to takedown as the contest drew on against Shore. The Ukrainian is similarly poor as Munoz Jr on the feet but is a nuisance to shift if he bundles his way to top control.
Johnny Munoz Jr vs Liudvik Shonlinian Result: Munoz Jr def. Shonlinian // UD
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Jake Hadley vs Carlos Candelario
Flyweight (125)
Jake Hadley (8-1)
A battle between two fighters yet to earn a win in the UFC. Hadley has a solid string of scalps in Cage Warriors, but his inability to handle Allan Nascimento on the mat is a red flag. A functional striker, Hadley can handle himself on the feet, but he cannot afford to operate out of a closed guard.
Carlos Candelario (8-2)
Candelario is a technically limited, gritty scrapper whose reckless abandon creates risk and reward in equal measure. The Brazilian has the explosivity to catch Hadley by surprise on the feet, but as seen against Tatsuro Taira, he can be ground down on the mat.
Hadley vs Candelario Prediction: Hadley Submission Round 3
Candelario is a technically limited, gritty scrapper whose reckless abandon creates risk and reward in equal measure. The Brazilian has the explosivity to catch Hadley by surprise on the feet, but as seen against Tatsuro Taira, he can be ground down on the mat. Hadley, hopefully, has learnt a great deal from his naive loss to Allan Nascimento.
Jake Hadley vs Carlos Candelario Result: Hadley def. Candelario // SUB Round 3
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Ramona Pascual vs Tamires Vidal
Women’s Bantamweight (135)
Ramona Pascual (6-4)
A dreadful fight in a dreadful division. Ramona Pascual is still chasing her first victory in the UFC after comprehensively dropping decisions to the likes of Josiane Nunes and Joselyne Edwards. The Hong Kong fighter owns a strong chin and is hellbent on pursuing takedowns, though, which is typically a solid skillset for such a poor division.
Tamires Vidal (6-1)
UFC debutant, Tamires Vidal, owns the athletic edge over Pascual and that’s pretty much it. Pascual should have the tools to take Vidal to the mat early and never look back. At such a lowly level of WMMA, simple decision-making often isn’t the strong suit.
Pascual vs Vidal Prediction: Vidal TKO Round 2
UFC debutant, Tamires Vidal, owns the athletic edge over Pascual and that’s pretty much it. Pascual should have the tools to take Vidal to the mat early and never look back. At such a lowly level of WMMA, simple decision-making often isn’t the strong suit.
Ramona Pascual vs Tamires Vidal Result: Vidal def. Pascual // TKO Round 2
Return to UFC Vegas 64 Fight Card
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