UFC Orlando Predictions, Odds and Results: Thompson vs Holland
UFC Orlando Pintsized Background
A whole lotta talk has been floating around that UFC Orlando is the most stacked Fight Night card in history. Debatable, but after enduring a Nzechukwu-Cutelaba main event last week, I’m open to such conversation.
UFC Orlando’s main event features a crossroads Welterweight fight between Karate Kid, Stephen Thompson, and the brashly out-spoken, Kevin Holland. RDA and Bryan Barberena lock horns too as the co-main, with Bam Bam having bounced from a worrying hospital stay with a 3-win streak. UFC Orlando’s main card also features two of the hardest hitters at Heavyweight, Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich, in a top-10 affair.
If you thought that UFC Orlando’s preliminary card would lose steam, you’d be wrong. The featured prelim between Niko Price and Philip Rowe promises an awkward slobber knocker on the feet between two of the more wildly creative strikers at 170 lbs. Pintsized’s pick of the fights has to be the meme magic of Michael Johnson and Marc Diakiese – fingers crossed for a magical back-and-forth on the feet rather than Diakiese digging into his wrestling again.
Where/When is UFC Orlando taking place:
December 3, 2022. Amway Center. Florida, United States.
What time does UFC Orlando start:
🇬🇧 UK: 12pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 7pm
What channel is UFC Orlando on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
🚀 Preview: UFC Vegas 65 Predictions, Odds and Results: Lewis vs Spivak
💰 PI’s Recommended Fight: Muslim Salikhov vs Andre Fialho
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UFC Orlando Picks & Odds
| UFC Orlando Odds | UFC Orlando Predictions |
|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland Odds: (+140) / (-165) | Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland Prediction: Stephen Thompson Decision |
| Rafael dos Anjos vs Bryan Barberena Odds: (-560) / (+430) | Rafael dos Anjos vs Bryan Barberena Prediction: Rafael dos Anjos Decision |
| Matheus Nicolau vs Matt Schnell Odds: (-380) / (+310) | Matheus Nicolau vs Matt Schnell Prediction: Nicolau Submission Round 3 |
| Tai Tuivasa vs Sergei Pavlovich Odds: (+185) / (-215) | Tai Tuivasa vs Sergei Pavlovich Prediction: Tai Tuivasa TKO Round 2 |
| Jack Hermansson vs Roman Dolidze Odds: (-190) / (+160) | Jack Hermansson vs Roman Dolidze Prediction: Jack Hermansson Decision |
| Eryk Anders vs Kyle Daukaus Odds: (+190) / (-225) | Eryk Anders vs Kyle Daukaus Prediction: Kyle Daukaus Decision |
| Niko Price vs Philip Rowe Odds: (-140) / (+120) | Niko Price vs Philip Rowe Prediction: Niko Price TKO Round 3 |
| Angela Hill vs Emily Ducote Odds: (+100) / (-120) | Angela Hill vs Emily Ducote Prediction: Emily Ducote Decision |
| Clay Guida vs Scott Holtzman Odds: (+145) / (-170) | Clay Guida vs Scott Holtzman Prediction: Clay Guida Decision |
| Michael Johnson vs Marc Diakiese Odds: (+255) / (-305) | Michael Johnson vs Marc Diakiese Prediction: Marc Diakiese Decision |
| Darren Elkins vs Jonathan Pearce Odds: (+360) / (-450) | Darren Elkins vs Jonathan Pearce Prediction: Jonathan Pearce TKO Round 2 |
| Tracy Cortez vs Amanda Ribas Odds: (-110) / (-110) | Tracy Cortez vs Amanda Ribas Prediction: Tracy Cortez Decision |
| Natan Levy vs Genaro Valdez Odds: (-195) / (+165) | Natan Levy vs Genaro Valdez Prediction: Natan Levy Submission Round 2 |
| Francis Marshall vs Marcelo Rojo Odds: (-155) / (+135) | Francis Marshall vs Marcelo Rojo Prediction: Marcelo Rojo TKO Round 3 |
| Yazmin Jauregui vs Istela Nunes Odds: (-305) / (+225) | Yazmin Jauregui vs Istela Nunes Prediction: Yazmin Jauregui Decision |
UFC Orlando: Main Event
Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland
Welterweight (170)
Stephen Thompson (16-6-1)
This isn’t the first time that Stephen Thompson has faced the possibility of a third loss in a row. Back in 2019, Thompson faced Vicente Luque after suffering his first career KO loss to Anthony Pettis and a dubious decision in Liverpool to Darren Till. There is reason to believe that Wonderboy is over-the-hill at this point, however.
No longer in his physical prime, Thompson looks far more vulnerable to takedowns than earlier in his UFC tenure. Still, there are few strikers as slick or technically efficient as Thompson. Holland was a crafty counter-puncher at Middleweight, but he seems dead-set on bullying opponents at Welterweight. A similar pressure approach would allow Thompson to operate on his back foot, replicating stellar performances against Jorge Masvidal and Luque. A noticeable drop in speed is a worry, however.
Kevin Holland (23-8)
The Kevin Holland who knocked out Joaquin Buckley may have been his peak performance. Educated counter-striking, exceptional use of his reach and a mesmerising array of feints to mask his power. Holland at 170lbs is a mess in which his preference to pressure opponents has seen him lose exchanges with Alex Oliveira and Tim Means.
Forget the Khamzat Chimaev fight. There is no value in analysing such a late-notice, stylistically comedic fight – if anything, Holland did surprisingly well to get back to his feet initially. As much as Thompson should beat Holland on paper, the physical decline is very difficult to overlook. If Holland were a slightly more consistent fighter, less prone to mental lapses, I’d expect to break a slowing Thomspon down the stretch.
Thompson vs Holland Prediction: Thompson Decision
The Kevin Holland who knocked out Joaquin Buckley may have been his peak performance. Educated counter-striking, exceptional use of his reach and a mesmerising array of feints to mask his power. Holland at 170lbs is a mess in which his preference to pressure opponents has seen him lose exchanges with Alex Oliveira and Tim Means.
As much as Thompson should beat Holland on paper, the physical decline is very difficult to overlook. If Holland were a slightly more consistent fighter, less prone to mental lapses, I’d expect to break a slowing Thomspon down the stretch. This won’t be the first time that Wonderboy has faced a potential three-fight slide, but it will take a gargantuan performance to replicate the dominance of the Vicente Luque victory.
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UFC Orlando: Co-Main Event
Rafael dos Anjos vs Bryan Barberena
Welterweight (170)
Rafael dos Anjos (31-14)
Even in a fifth-round TKO loss, RDA continued to prove his quality during his career twilight against Rafael Fiziev. Taking Round 4, and arguably Round 3, off of the ferocious Krygzstani is a huge achievement for the 38-year-old. Just a five-month layoff for the Brazilian after the knockout is a red flag for his durability, but Barberena breaks opponents through volume rather than one-shot KO power. RDA can afford to wade through Barberena’s volume in the pocket to lay down a stifling grappling-heavy game plan.
Bryan Barberena (18-8)
Bam Bam may have stopped Robbie Lawler in the second round, but the fight felt reminiscent of a veteran’s league rather than the top MMA promotion. Barberena was pressed back by Lawler through footwork alone – an area that RDA has regularly punished opponents throughout his career. Barberena should aim to use his physical advantages to bully Dos Anjos early and tax the ageing Brazilian’s gas tank.
Dos Anjos vs Barberena Prediction: RDA Decision
Bam Bam may have stopped Robbie Lawler in the second round, but the fight felt reminiscent of a veteran’s league rather than the top MMA promotion. Barberena was pressed back by Lawler through footwork alone – an area that RDA has regularly punished opponents throughout his career. Barberena should aim to use his physical advantages to bully Dos Anjos early and tax the ageing Brazilian’s gas tank – especially considering RDA has spent only five months on the sidelines since his crushing stoppage loss to Rafael Fiziev.
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UFC Orlando: Main Card
Matheus Nicolau vs Matt Schnell
Flyweight (125)
Matheus Nicolau (18-2-1)
Screw impartiality, Matheus Nicolau is one of my favourite Flyweights on the roster. The Brazilian now favours his sharp counter-striking, which he has tagged onto his functional wrestling base. Nicolau lacks knockout power and pushes a pedestrian pace, but his accuracy and consistency have seen his rise to a three-fight streak upon his return to the UFC.
Matt Schnell (16-7)
Over his UFC career, Schnell has transformed from a risk-averse style to a ‘pedal-to-the-metal’ approach. For a fighter with a questionable chin, it is a head-scratcher as to why Schnell has adopted such a wild style. Regardless, it is entertaining to watch and his grappling chops ensure he always has a chance to make the most of the madness he creates.
Nicolau vs Schnell Prediction: Nicolau Submission Round 3
Nicolau lacks knockout power and pushes a pedestrian pace, but his accuracy and consistency have seen his rise to a three-fight streak upon his return to the UFC. Meanwhile, Schnell flies out of the blocks to create a mess and falls back onto his grappling chops. For a fighter with a questionable chin, it is a head-scratcher as to why Schnell has adopted such a wild style.
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Tai Tuivasa vs Sergei Pavlovich
Heavyweight (265)
Tai Tuivasa (15-4)
The Tai Tuivasa hype train ran to a bloody end in Paris three months ago at the hands of Ciryl Gane. Tuivasa managed to knock down the arguable future Heavyweight champion, but a hell of a lot of miles were put on the Aussie’s chin in the futile affair. With such a short time to recuperate, and coming against a fighter who loves a first-round KO, it could be a recipe for disaster.
Sergei Pavlovich (16-1)
Pavlovich is a ferociously fast starter. All five of the Russians’ fights in the UFC ended in the first round (4W 1L). Rather than owing to lights-out power, the Russian instead is a 1-2 merchant before eventually swarming opponents. Against Tuivasa, a fighter who thrives in difficult 50/50 exchanges, it seems a stylistic hurdle that could largely be conquered if Tuivasa hasn’t recovered fully.
Tuivasa vs Pavlovich Prediction: Tuivasa TKO Round 2
The huge red flag has to be Tuivasa’s lack of recovery time after a bloody beatdown in Paris at the hands of Ciryl Gane. Against Pavlovich, a ferociously fast starter, it could be too much too soon for Bam Bam. However, Tuivasa has made a career out of thriving in tough 50/50 exchanges and turning the tide of a fight with a one-shot. Pavlovich is a swarmer once he has his opponent hurt and could easily walk himself into a Greg Hardy-esque highlight reel.
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Jack Hermansson vs Roman Dolidze
Middleweight (185)
Jack Hermasson (23-7)
Damn, did anyone realise that Jack Hermansson is already 34 years old? The Swede, once a feared grappler at Middleweight who dominated Jacare Souza, is now a strangely robotic striker. As seen against Chris Curtis, Hermansson can keep a counter-puncher on the end of his jab with relative ease. Dolidze is far more dynamic, however, showcasing a level of power that has hampered Hermansson’s willingness to open up on the feet in the past.
Roman Dolidze (11-1)
The Caucasian is one of MMA’s bad boys, but exceptional first-round highlight reel stoppages over Kyle Daukaus and Phil Hawes highlight one of 2022’s gems. It was only a month ago that Dolidze snapped Hawes’ knee tendons before brutally sending the American to the shadow realm. Dolidze remains a mess of parts, dangerous in all areas of a fight, but he massively struggled against Trevin Giles – the only fighter who has entered with a clear, consistent game plan.
Hermansson vs Dolidze Prediction: Hermansson Decision
The Swede, once a feared grappler at Middleweight who dominated Jacare Souza, is now a strangely robotic striker. As seen against Chris Curtis, Hermansson can keep a counter-puncher on the end of his jab with relative ease. That alone is the key to victory against Roman Dolidze. The Georgian is a mess of parts, dangerous in all areas of a fight, but he massively struggled against Trevin Giles – the only fighter who has entered against Dolidze with a clear, consistent game plan.
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Eryk Anders vs Kyle Daukaus
Middleweight (185)
Eryk Anders (14-7)
Somehow, someway, Eryk Anders holds his place on the UFC roster. Stiff, low-volume striking combined with control grappling without any ultimate goal. Anders’ skillset has regressed over his UFC tenure without a real bump up in opposition quality from his early days.
Kyle Daukaus (11-3)
The D’Arce Knight is technically polished but severely hampered by his below-average athleticism. Suffering his first knockout loss in the professional ranks last time out, Daukaus was caught clean in the clinch. Daukaus cannot afford to hold any baggage from the devastating loss, as his dominance in the clinch has been the root of his past successes.
Anders vs Daukaus Prediction: Daukaus Decision
Suffering his first knockout loss in the professional ranks last time out, Daukaus was caught clean in the clinch. Daukaus cannot afford to hold any baggage from the devastating loss, as his dominance in the clinch has been the root of his past successes. Anders has regressed over his UFC tenure without a real bump up in opposition quality from his early days. Expecting a dull affair in which Anders backs himself onto the cage, allowing Daukaus to cruise to a decision.
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UFC Orlando: Preliminary Card
Niko Price vs Philip Rowe
Welterweight (170)
Niko Price (15-5)
After a streak of fighting killers at Welterweight, Niko Price is offered a rather tough step back in opposition quality. After sitting out on the sidelines for 14 months, recovering from an ACL injury, it’s a huge knock for an awkward striker who relies on his toughness to beat opponents. Price owns an imposing frame, with a reach that catches opponents unaware, but his recklessness and durability remain the key assets to his game.
Philip Rowe (9-3)
Rowe is an elderly prospect at 32 years old and just 12 fights under his belt over a ten-year career. The Fresh Prince oozes fluidity on the feet compared to Price. A lack of ground game could be the kicker – an area that Rowe’s TDD deficiencies will prove more fatal than the strength of Price’s wrestling.
Price vs Rowe Prediction: Price TKO Round 3
Rowe oozes fluidity on the feet compared to Price, who relies on his awkward frame and durability to break opponents. A lack of ground game could be the kicker, however – representing an area where Rowe’s TDD deficiencies will prove more fatal than the strength of Price’s wrestling.
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Angela Hill vs Emily Ducote
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Angela Hill (14-12)
Snapping a three-fight slide with a dominant decision victory over Lupita Godinez, we can comfortably assume that Angela Hill has a couple more years as gatekeeper. A dynamic, entertaining striker, the major issue plaguing the Strawweight veteran is her inability to stay on her feet throughout fights.
Emily Ducote (12-6)
The former Invicta Strawweight champion dispatched Jessica Penne in her UFC debut. Quite the rebound for a fighter who failed so epically at Bellator near the start of her career. Ducote is still a work in progress on the feet, certainly a level below Hill, yet the wrestling threat will create real trouble for Hill to settle on the feet.
Hill vs Ducote Prediction: Ducote Decision
Ducote is still a work in progress on the feet, certainly a level below Hill, yet the wrestling threat will create real trouble for Hill to settle. Expecting a razor-thin decision, however, as Hill remains a dynamic and entertaining striker deep into her career twilight.
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Clay Guida vs Scott Holtzman
Lightweight (155)
Clay Guida (37-22)
The veteran who simply can’t stop burping will gloriously stroll into his 60th professional fight at 40 years of age. What’s not to love about The Carpenter? For nearly two decades, Guida has beaten 37 opponents on the back of relentless cardio, chain wrestling and the occasional submission. In fairness, there have been slight improvements on the feet, but at the cost of a natural drop in pace.
Scott Holtzman (14-5)
Hot Sauce may be facing a three-fight slide but you’d be hard-stretched to find a more thankless back-to-back than Beneil Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot. At 39 years old, Holtzman’s ceiling is well-defined but is enough of a physical presence to hold his own on the mat with Guida.
Guida vs Holtzman Prediction: Guida Decision
Hot Sauce may be facing a three-fight slide but you’d be hard-stretched to find a more thankless back-to-back than Beneil Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot. At 39 years old, Holtzman’s ceiling is well-defined but is enough of a physical presence to hold his own on the mat with Guida. Backing The Carpenter on the eve of his 60th professional fight, however.
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Michael Johnson vs Marc Diakiese
Lightweight (155)
Michael Johnson (20-18)
Although Michael Johnson is 1-5 in his last six fights, in typical MJ fashion, he showcased enough talent to argue his case for beating all six opponents. This has never been so clear as his deeply debatable split decision loss to Jamie Mullarkey – a performance of breathless volume and a ramrod jab.
Marc Diakiese (16-5)
After earning a huge amount of praise for going toe-to-toe with Rafael Fiziev, Diakiese has burnt through all the goodwill with insomnia-curing wrestling performances against Viacheslav Borshchev and Damir Hadzovic. Considering MJ remains a threat on the feet, while the Brit is a strong game planner, it suggests Diakiese will happily swallow the crowd’s boos en route to a wrestling-heavy victory.
Johnson vs Diakiese Prediction: Diakiese Decision
Considering Michael Johnson remains a threat on the feet, while Marc Diakiese is a strong game planner, it suggests the Brit will happily swallow the crowd’s boos en route to a wrestling-heavy victory. Don’t be fooled by MJ’s 1-5 record in his last six fights, however – in typical MJ fashion, he showcased enough talent to argue his case for beating all six opponents.
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Darren Elkins vs Jonathan Pearce
Featherweight (145)
Darren Elkins (27-10)
Yet another veteran fighter plying his trade on a stacked UFC Orlando card. Darren Elkins has never strayed away from embodying the ‘Just Bleed’ Tapout era of MMA. After eating one strike, Elkins’ face transforms into a heaving, bloody pulp. Pearce carries enough power to punish a slowing husk of a fighter on the feet, regardless of Elkins’ undying heart.
Jonathan Pearce (13-4)
For a fighter on a four-fight streak, including an impressive second-round beatdown of Makwan Amirkhani, Pearce has to be confused as to why he has received such a sideways piece of match-making. Elkins has managed to pick up recent wins in his traditional gutsy, grappling fashion, but Pearce hits too hard to risk a fight on the mat.
Elkins vs Pearce Prediction: Pearce TKO Round 2
For a fighter on a four-fight streak, including an impressive second-round beatdown of Makwan Amirkhani, Pearce has to be confused as to why he has received such a sideways piece of match-making. Elkins has managed to pick up recent wins in his traditional gutsy, grappling fashion, but Pearce hits far too hard to risk a fight on the mat. Especially when the veteran’s face transforms into a bloodbath after eating the first couple of strikes in a fight.
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Tracy Cortez vs Amanda Ribas
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Tracy Cortez (10-1)
Breaking a worrying trend of fighting once a year, Tracy Cortez returns to the octagon with another step up in competition. An easy sell for the UFC matchmaker, Cortez is a strong wrestler who can afford to opt for a control-first approach. Ribas is a pain to get to the mat, but once on her back, Cortez has to be favoured to be enough of a physical nuisance to keep her pinned.
Amanda Ribas (11-3)
Amanda Ribas was on a whistle-stop tour to the title before she was rudely broken down on the feet by Marina Rodriguez. The Brazilian has made few steps to adopt a more composed striking approach, but to be fair, most of her success stems from natural reactive fluidity. Even with the underlying wild factor to Ribas’ striking, this is still the same fighter who jabbed the head off Mackenzie Dern – a striker of similar quality to Cortez.
Cortez vs Ribas Prediction: Cortez Decision
An easy sell for the UFC matchmaker, Cortez is a strong wrestler who can afford to opt for a control-first approach. Ribas is a pain to get to the mat, but once on her back, Cortez has to be favoured to be enough of a physical nuisance to keep her pinned. Still, the Brazilian has a huge advantage on the feet. Even with the underlying wild factor to Ribas’ striking, this is still the same fighter who jabbed the head off Mackenzie Dern – a striker of similar quality to Cortez.
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Natan Levy vs Genaro Valdez
Lightweight (155)
Natan Levy (7-1)
A rippling physique with an unusual background as a Karate and Kung Fu Black Belt – ah, and who could forget, his patented ‘Jew-Jitsu’. There was a lot of hype behind Levy off the back of a DWCS finish in 2020, yet a UFC debut loss to Rafa Garcia highlighted gaping flaws in his game. Namely, a waning gas tank thanks to his heavy-set physique of muscles.
Genaro Valdez (10-1)
Genaro Valdez’s first-round stoppage loss to Matt Frevola has lost some of its sting after the highly-rated Ottman Azaitar recently fell to a similar fate. Valdez was able to dig deep, rising from four knockdowns in three minutes, which is a plus for a fighter who tends to win from shock submissions.
Levy vs Valdez Prediction: Levy Submission Round 2
Valdez is an enjoyable all-offence fighter but his entertaining style will see him regularly run into trouble at the UFC level. Levy has swallowed a couple of tough decisions over his UFC career, but there is reason to believe that the Karate and Kung Fu Black Belt is maturing in MMA. Owing to Valdez’s aggression and resilience, he could expose Levy’s waning gas tank in the later rounds.
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Francis Marshall vs Marcelo Rojo
Featherweight (145)
Francis Marshall (6-0)
UFC debutant Francis Marshall, fresh off a decision victory in the DWCS, is looking to replicate a similar high-pace wrestling performance. There is a huge ceiling concerning Marshall’s freak athleticism, but as always, there are worries about prospects fast-tracked through the DWCS system rather than learning at regionals.
Marcelo Rojo (16-8)
Marcelo Rojo isn’t a great athlete, nor is he a particularly strong technician, but the Argentinian is a tough cookie to break. The very type of fighter that is designed to dig deep against green prospects and teach them tough lessons. Most of all, Rojo hits very hard and I’m expecting his old man power to surprise a 23-year-old who has faced little in the way of adversity over six fights.
Marshall vs Rojo Prediction: Rojo TKO Round 3
There is a huge ceiling concerning Marshall’s freak athleticism, but as always, there are worries about prospects fast-tracked through the DWCS system rather than learning at regionals. Marcelo Rojo isn’t a great athlete, nor is he a particularly strong technician, but the Argentinian is a tough cookie to break. More so, Rojo Rojo hits very hard and I’m expecting his old man power to surprise a 23-year-old who has faced little in the way of adversity over six fights.
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Yazmin Jauregui vs Istela Nunes
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Yazmin Jauregui (9-0)
23 years old, entertaining on the feet and fighting in a division with enough chaff to ensure she has time to learn – Yazmin Jauregui is one to watch for the future. Worries remain over the Mexican’s questionable ground game, but Istela Nunes will be more than content to keep this fight standing.
Istela Nunes (6-3)
The Brazilian is sitting on an 0-2 record in the UFC, but Nunes looked vastly superior in her last fight against Sam Hughes. Nunes tends to start fast, timing accurate counter-strikes early, but as seen against Hughes – she mentally wanes against relentless pressure.
Jauregui vs Nunes Prediction: Jauregui Decision
23 years old, entertaining on the feet and fighting in a division with enough chaff to ensure she has time to learn – Yazmin Jauregui is one to watch for the future. Nunes tends to start fast, timing accurate counter-strikes early, but as seen against Sam Hughes – she mentally wanes against relentless pressure.
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