UFC Fight Night 198: Vieira vs Tate Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 198: Vieira vs Tate Predictions & Results

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All good things must come to an end. After almost a month straight of top-quality events, the UFC decides to treat us with a classic weak as pish Fight Night card. Somehow, someway, Adrian Yanez and Davey Grant will have to carry the entire weight of the card on their shoulders. The Bantamweights should deliver a bloodbath, while Michael Chiesa and Sean Brady should prove an interesting chess match on the mat.

Failed to catch the action from the last UFC? No worries. Peep our preview from las week via UFC Fight Night 197: Holloway vs Rodriguez Predictions. Prefer a review of the event to jog the memory? Read MAFB: UFC Fight Night 197. Number crunching more your suit? Find all of Pintsized scores for your favourite fighters on MAFB Math: UFC Fight Night 197.

Unconvinced by Pintsized’s mystical predicting powers? Take a look at our prediction success last month detailed in UFC Predictions Results: October 2021.

Keep an eye on Adrian Yanez vs Davey Grant, it has FOTN written all over it | UFC Fight Night 198: Predictions
Keep an eye on Adrian Yanez vs Davey Grant, it has FOTN written all over it | UFC Fight Night 198: Predictions

UFC Fight Night 198: Main Event

Ketlen Vieira (11-2) vs Miesha Tate (19-7)

Women’s Bantamweight (135)

Ketlen Vieira

Almost a year out of the octagon since her unanimous decision defeat to Yana Kunitskaya, Ketlen Vieira fumbles her way into the main event billing against revived veteran, Miesha Tate. Vieira emerges as the perfect opponent for Tate when the stats of her last fight are pulled. Long gone are Vieira’s days of pulling off impressive submissions (i.e. Sara McMann).

Vieira was only able to land seven strikes across fifteen minutes against Kunitskaya, opting instead to wrestle fruitlessly on the ground. While Vieira was able to secure takedowns throughout the contest, her top game never amounted to anything outside of the odd arm punch. The Brazilian is a suffocating presence on top and is difficult to shift off, but the limited risk-taking poses little danger except losing the round.

Of greater interest is Vieira’s lack of options off her back. Kunitskaya, a typically boring grinder, was able to open up brutal damage at the end of round three as Vieira attempted to kick off the Russian. Tate is far more active on the mat than Kunitskaya and could punish Vieira’s speculative submission attempts. While Vieira’s durability isn’t in question, her ability to bleed rounds is.

Miesha Tate

It’s still difficult to make the right read on Tate’s return. The former fan favourite marked an impressive return with a late stoppage over Marion Reneau, but it was the kindest piece of match-making available to Tate. The forty-four-year-old was on a four-fight slide and had suffered a true identity crisis on the feet. Vieira is a far greater litmus test as to Tate’s title ambitions.

Tate’s striking is still janky, falling into straight shots with her rigid upper body. The fear of eating shots, evident in the fights nearing her retirement, seems to have lessened. Granted, Reneau’s power isn’t comparable to Vieira, but Tate level changes made it difficult for Reneau to time counters. Vieira’s powerful counters will be more difficult to bait out, but the Brazilian’s tendency to overcommit to shots will leave her a sitting duck for takedowns.

Whether it was takedowns off the clinch or shooting in the centre of the cage, Tate found success against Reneau. The sharpened boxing made transitioning into wrestling a far smoother affair. Vieira may boast a 92% TDD but it has come against a thoroughly disappointing Sarah McMann and thirty-five-year-old ring-rusty Cat Zingano. Vieira will struggle to take Tate down, and while Cupcake’s submission arsenal is largely restricted from the top, she can still threaten off her back.

Predicted Result: Tate Decision

Vieira emerges as the perfect opponent for Tate when the stats of her last fight are pulled. The Brazilian is a suffocating presence on top and is difficult to shift off, but the limited risk-taking poses little danger to opponents except dropping the round. Of greater interest is Vieira’s lack of options off her back. If Kunitskaya has the freedom to open up ground and pound, Tate will have no trouble punishing Vieira’s speculative submission attempts.

Tate’s striking is still janky, falling into straight shots with her rigid upper body. The fear of eating shots, evident in the fights nearing her retirement, seems to have lessened. Granted, Reneau’s power isn’t comparable to Vieira, but Tate level changes made it difficult for Reneau to time counters. Vieira’s durability is unquestionable, whereas we are yet to see if Tate 2.0 can eat a shot in her twilight. Backing Tate to break Vieira’s 92% TDD record and control the Brazilian for the majority of the bout in an underwhelming affair.

Result: Vieira def. Tate // Decision (unanimous – 48-47, 48-47, 49-46)

Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

Cupcake returned with a refined boxing display against the ancient, Marion Reneau | UFC Fight Night 198: Predictions
Cupcake returned with a refined boxing display against the ancient, Marion Reneau | UFC Fight Night 198: Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 198: Co-Main Event

Michael Chiesa (17-5) vs Sean Brady (14-0)

Welterweight (170)

Michael Chiesa

You best not be talking about Michael Chiesa’s mum. The Maverick had started to build an impressive name for himself at Welterweight before a certain Vicente Luque threw a spanner in the works. Chiesa’s striking has never amounted to much, but he showcased decent lateral movement and a back-foot jab against Luque. The counter-left out of Southpaw is a shot that caught even Luque, an experienced counter-puncher, flush on the chin.

Chiesa’s bread-and-butter remains his powerful takedowns and submission chops. Despite moving up to Welterweight, Chiesa remains one of the bigger boys of the division. Using his superior physicality, Chiesa often opts for a takedown off of the body lock, but as seen against Luque – is more than happy to time a shot on the hips. Although Chiesa was reversed and submitted by Luque in an exceptional sequence, the Maverick also showcased his BJJ. An immense threat once latched onto an opponent’s back, for everyone not named Vicente Luque it spells goodnight.

Sean Brady

Welcome to the big leagues, Sean Brady. Having spent the past two years accumulating experience against incrementally stronger opposition, the elite athlete will have to be on top form to get the better of the Maverick on the mat. If Brady is to win, his pace will be key. While Brady paid great respect to Jake Matthews boxing in the opening round, Brady has to push a hard volume on Chiesa to negate his opponent’s reach advantage. Brady’s lack of defensive layers are unlikely to prove an issue against Chiesa, a systematic striker with little creativity who won’t punish Brady’s overreliance on defensive footwork.

This could well prove to be a battle to assuming top control. Brady can time takedowns well, but it will take the threat of Brady’s heavy hands to break Chiesa’s TDD. Brady’s side guillotine choke is a regular weapon, but it is largely threatened to re-assume control. Rather than sinking in a submission once Brady controls an opponent’s back, he instead rains down a ferocious volume of stikes. Even from poor angles where the strikes are arm punches, Brady drains his opponent to make his superior conditioning count in the later rounds.

Predicted Result: Brady Submission Round 3

An extremely well-matched bout, but Chiesa’s susceptibility to powerful wrestlers has been long noted. An immense threat once latched onto an opponent’s back, for everyone not named Vicente Luque it spells goodnight. Unfortunately for Chiesa, Brady heavier hands offer a greater transitionary distraction for the takedown.

Brady’s pace will prove key. Brady has to push a hard volume on Chiesa to negate his opponent’s reach advantage. Brady’s lack of defensive layers are unlikely to prove an issue against Chiesa, a systematic striker with little creativity who won’t punish Brady’s overreliance on defensive footwork. The regular threat of submissions and chipping strikes from on top will wear on Chiesa and eventually open up a path for submission.

Result: Brady def. Chiesa // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

It may have only lasted a round, but Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque was a thoroughly enjoyable back-and-forth affair on the mat | UFC Fight Night 198: Predictions
It may have only lasted a round, but Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque was a thoroughly enjoyable back-and-forth affair on the mat | UFC Fight Night 198: Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 198: Main Card

Rani Yahya (27-10-1) vs Kyung HO Kang (17-8)

Bantamweight (135)

Rani Yahya

Everyone’s favourite old man is back to defy Father Time. Thirty-six years of age, at say, Heavyweight, is a spring chicken. In the 135lb division, however, thirty-six is special – especially considering the miles that almost forty fights put on the body. Or, those would be miles, as Yahya’s style has allowed the Brazilian to flourish well into his twilight. A grappling wizard and submission artist, Yahya forgoes all striking in search of the mat. Never the most athletic mixed martial artist during his physical prime, Yahya is effectively a one-round fighter in terms of peak threat. Against a heavy-handed opponent with strong grappling himself, Yahya’s chin is at risk of being checked on Saturday.

Kyung Ho Kang

Nearing almost two years out of the octagon, it will be interesting to see which version of Mr Perfect will appear on Saturday night. Having slowly gravitated away from his strong grappling roots, Kang was emphasising power kickboxing nearing the end of 2019. Unfortunately for Kang, his dynamism in the octagon often creates opportunities for his opponent’s to showcase their talents – evidenced by his propensity to win or lose via split decision. Although Yahya’s elite grappling presents a huge threat of first-round submission, the ageing Brazilian’s potency falls off hard after the first five minutes. Moreover, Kang was last submitted over a decade ago – having tightened his offensive and defensive grappling in the meantime.

Predicted Result: Yahya Decision

An entertaining retirement match-up between two of the oldest fighters in the little-men roster. Never the most athletic mixed martial artist during his physical prime, Yahya is effectively a one-round fighter in terms of peak threat. Against a heavy-handed opponent with strong grappling himself, Yahya’s chin is at risk of being checked on Saturday. Of course, Kang has a profound way of allowing opponents to fight their ideal fight. Backing Yahya to just about pip Kang on the scorecards.

Result: Yahya def. Ho Kang // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

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Joanne Wood (15-6) vs Taila Santos (18-1)

Women’s Flyweight (125)

Joanne Wood

Recently marrying Head Coach, John Wood, Joanne Wood continues the trend of relationships with her coaches. Andrea Lee, Julia Budd, Bethe Correia, Meisha Tate, Rose Namajunas and Aspen Ladd all share/d fighter-coach relationships to varying degrees of success. Now married, the dynamic may once again spark controversial headlines based on mid-round coaching. If all goes to plan for the Scot, she can return on her warpath to the title. Throwing away her chance by filling in to fight Jennifer Maia, Wood has found mixed luck against Jessica Eye and Lauren Murphy. If Wood’s decision making was more sound, this would be an easy victory for Scot. A superior technician on the feet, Wood has the wrestling and grappling defence to keep Santos standing and exploit the lumbering giant. If Wood ends up on her back, however, it’s difficult to see her climbing back to her feet.

Taila Santos

Rather than taking into account Taila Santos’ padded record, it is better to consider her based on her success in the UFC. A 3-1 run with dominant decision victories over Molly McCann, Gillian Robertson and Roxanne Modafferi – the Brazilian has simply proven herself too much of a freak athlete to be beaten at this level. Durable enough to walk into opponent’s strikes, Santos presses opponents to the cage, body lock takedowns opponents to the mat, then patiently grinds opponents from the top. It isn’t pretty, but until Santos faces a fighter who can move laterally and keep themselves off the cage, she will continue to win.

Predicted Result: Wood Decision

Santos as the exceptional athlete could easily walk Wood down and grind out yet another consistent performance on the mat. While Wood is a far superior technician on the feet, her decision-making is comically bad at times. Even with solid TDD and defensive grappling, Santos’ size is likely to prove too much for Wood if she ends up on her back. After watching Modafferi out-strike Santos, as well as find success in the clinch herself, Wood’s experience may prove key in slowing Santos’ rise.

Result: Santos def. Wood // Submission (rear-naked choke) Round 1 4:49

Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Adrian Yanez (14-3) vs Davey Grant (11-5)

Bantamweight (135)

Adrian Yanez

Ah, the money match-up. It is still uncertain whether Yanez will ever resolve some of the issues that plague his game (low-hands at range, lack of feints), but it’s difficult to see much change if he continues to win. After showcasing a ridiculous chin against Randy Costa, Yanez’ stock has only risen. Yanez struggled immensely with Costa’s rangier jab, but will far prefer Grant’s penchants for hooks. With less resistance to enter the pocket, Yanez can get to work immediately breaking down Grant’s body before cracking the Brit’s chin.

Davey Grant

The only way this doesn’t explode into a blood bath is if Grant opts to correctly fall back on his wrestling roots. It could be difficult for the Brit who has found a huge career resurgence on the back of his heavy hands, but Yanez is an extremely dangerous striker to trade with. Randy Costa holds freakish power, yet even after throwing everything and the kitchen sink at Yanez for five minutes, the Texan remained standing. Return to the style used against Grigory Popov, constantly seeking the takedown and holding his foe down, and Grant could work himself towards a meaningful fight.

Predicted Result: Yanez TKO Round 3

The only way this doesn’t explode into a blood bath is if Grant opts to correctly fall back on his wrestling roots. It could be difficult for the Brit who has found a huge career resurgence on the back of his heavy hands, but Yanez is an extremely dangerous striker to trade with. Return to the style used against Grigory Popov, constantly seeking the takedown and holding his foe down, and Grant could work himself towards a meaningful fight. Unfortunately for Grant, Yanez’ struggles last time out came from Costa’s rangey jab. The Brit’s penchant for hook offers less resistance to Yanez entering the pocket, from where Yanez can get to work immediately breaking down Grant’s body before cracking the Brit’s chin.

Result: Yanez def. Grant // Decision (split – 27-30, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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UFC Fight Night 198: Preliminary Card

Tucker Lutz (12-1) vs Pat Sabatini (15-3)

Featherweight (145)

Tucker Lutz

On the back of a spree of stoppage victories across the regional scene, it is a surprise that Tucker Lutz is yet to register a finish in the UFC. A methodical striker, Lutz picks at opponents with single shots as he tries to draw them onto his loaded counters. With solid enough defensive grappling, Lutz could keep this fight standing in the early rounds and press his advantage on the feet. Neither man possesses an exceptional gas tank, yet Sabataini’s tendency to allow opponents to dictate the pace could be his downfall.

Pat Sabatini

Sabatini’s got a lot of heart, that was more than clear against Jamall Emmers – trading heel hook submissions after being knocked down earlier in the round. Aside from a decent leg kick, Sabatini is limited to a heavy counter right hook that he regularly throws. Unless Sabatini can secure an early takedown, he will be picked apart by Lutz on the feet.

Predicted Result: Lutz TKO Round 2

Neither man possesses an exceptional gas tank, yet Sabataini’s tendency to allow opponents to dictate the pace could be his downfall. A methodical striker, Lutz picks at opponents with single shots as he tries to draw them onto his loaded counters. Unless Sabatini can secure an early takedown, he will have to bank on his durability to wait for an opportunity to arise.

Result: Sabatini def. Lutz // Decision (unanimous – 30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Rafa Garcia (12-2) vs Natan Levy (6-0)

Lightweight (155)

Rafa Garcia

It comes as a surprise that Rafa Garcia retains his place on the roster after a two-fight slide to his UFC career, yet the Mexican is an entertaining fighter to be fair. Losing to the current version of Chris Gruetzemacher is unforgivable, however, especially after the wobbling the veteran early. Chopping leg kicks, powerful boxing, regular takedowns and a stellar chin keeps Garcia a live dog in fights, but his inability to find the finish against a higher level of opposition is severely hampering his development.

Natan Levy

Just the third-ever fighter to hail from Israel, Natan Levy is an entertaining karate striker who will surely become a fan favourite before long. Against Shaheen Santana on DWCS, Santana tried to avoid Levy’s superior striking by constantly pressing and engaging in the clinch. Levy showcased exceptional defensive grappling – landing hard strikes, reversing takedowns and threatening regular submissions on the awkwardly lengthy Santana. While comparisons with Wonderboy will eventually surface, Levy is far more willing to grapple with opponents than the elite striker.

Predicted Result: Levy Submission Round 3

Just the third-ever fighter to hail from Israel, Natan Levy is an entertaining karate striker who will surely become a fan favourite before long. Levy showcased exceptional defensive grappling against Shaheen Santana on DWCS. Showcasing hard strikes in the clinch, takedown reversals and regular submissions, Rafa Garcia’s relentless pursuit of the takedown could easily walk himself into a Levy submission. The Mexican’s leg kicks and insane durability could make Levy’s debut slightly more troublesome than expected in the early rounds.

Result: Garcia def. Levy // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Loma Lookboonme (6-2) vs Lupita Godinez (6-2)

Women’s Strawweight (115)

Loma Lookboonme

Hell yeah, Lookboonmee continues to impress at Strawweight despite being ridiculously undersized. Lookboonmee’s dominant victory over Jinh Yu Frey continues to age like a fine wine, dominating Frey in the clinch and pounding her with violent elbows. In possibly the only fight in the division where Lookboonmee will have a reach advantage, the Thai fighter cannot afford to be sloppy with her TDD. Frey was disheartened after failing to secure her early takedowns, yet Lupita Godinez is a freak wrestling machine who will consistently threaten.

Lupita Godinez

The tale of this fight will truly rest on whether Godinez can get her takedowns firing early. As seen against Luana Carolina, an extremely limited fighter, Godinez was at the mercy of the Brazilian after she was stuffed thirteen times. Outside of the odd burst of volume, Godinez understands the limit of her tiny frame and seeks only to hit the mat. There will be opportunities to trip Lookboonmee during regular clinches, but any defensive frailties will be exploited violently by Lookboonmee’s cutting elbows.

Predicted Result: Lookboonmee Decision

The tale of this fight will truly rest on whether Godinez can get her takedowns firing early. As seen against Luana Carolina, an extremely limited fighter, Godinez was at the mercy of the Brazilian after she was stuffed thirteen times. There will be opportunities to trip Lookboonmee during regular clinches, but any defensive frailties will be exploited violently by Lookboonmee’s cutting elbows.

Result: Godinez def. Lookboonmee // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

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Terrance McKinney (11-3) vs Fares Ziam (12-3)

Lightweight (155)

Terrance McKinney

Terrance McKinney sure does love cashing in an early paycheck. Only ever fighting outside of the first round twice in his fourteen fight career, McKinney is a powerful kill or be killed fighter that will find no trouble earning FOTN bonuses. McKinney possesses surprisingly sharp scrambling, which is a must for the crazy striker who regularly falls over pulling off wheel kicks, etc. With nuclear power in his hands, you have to watch McKinney to understand just how much power his wiry frame can generate.

Fares Ziam

Frenchman, Fares Ziam, will prove a tough ask for McKinney. Ziam swept aside Luigi Vendramini and Jamie Mullarkey with surprising ease. With a wide variety of hand and leg feints, Ziam dominates the centre of the octagon and puppets opponents with his laser-sharp single shots. Unfortunately, Ziam is a one-pace fighter who isn’t the most comfortable with fighting off the back-foot. While the Frenchman’s chin isn’t paper, McKinney’s reckless abandon benefits his power as opponents can’t read which shot will land.

Predicted Result: Mckinney TKO Round 1

McKinney possesses surprisingly sharp scrambling, which is a must for the crazy striker who regularly falls over pulling off wheel kicks, etc. Not that it should matter, Ziam is a one-pace fighter who isn’t the most comfortable with fighting off the back-foot. While the Frenchman’s chin isn’t paper, McKinney’s reckless abandon benefits his power as opponents can’t read which shot will land. If somehow, Ziam can escape the first-round unscathed – his technical approach with a variety of feints will slowly pull the Frenchman ahead on the scorecards.

Result: 🚫 FIGHT CANCELLED (McKinney Team COVID) 🚫

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Cody Durden (11-3-1) vs Qileng Aori (18-8)

Flyweight (125)

Cody Durden

The typical heavy-handed wrestler that sweeps the regional scene then struggles in the UFC when pitted against an opponent he cannot take down or sit in guard without the threat of submission. Low hands mean Durden relies on his chin a fair bit, but it also conceals his powerful strikes and takedowns.

Qileng Aori

After spending most of his career toiling away on the awful Chinese regionals, Aori looked very much the sum of his record when he fell to Jeff Molina on his debut. Although showcasing a ridiculous chin, Aori was pretty much limited to grinding Molina against the cage. The Mongolian never expands beyond 1-2s on the feet and his inability to flow through the gears will hamper any sort of career progression.

Predicted Result: Durden Submission Round 2

Aori looked very much the sum of his record when he fell to Jeff Molina on his debut. Although showcasing a ridiculous chin, Aori was pretty much limited to grinding Molina against the cage. Durden is a typical heavy-handed wrestler, with his low hands sure to cause Aori trouble as he conceals his powerful strikes and takedowns.

Result: Durden def. Aori // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (19-7) vs Sean Soriano (14-7)

Featherweight (145)

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Yet another UFC punt on a potential Chinese market mover, Nuerdanbieke is solely a wrestler. Lacking any sort of kickboxing ability, Nuerdanbieke rushes opponents to the cage and attempts to muscle them to the floor. Even after securing Josh Culibao’s back in the first round, Nuerdanbieke lacked any sort of submission threat. Thankfully, Soriano has a porous TDD that will provide an easily exploitable path to victory.

Sean Soriano

If Soriano can keep his butt off the mat, his experience against stronger opposition will shine brightly. While Soriano will always be at threat of falling to a submission, Nuerdanbieke lacks any sort of striking ability to set up the takedown. Soriano will have total freedom on the feet and has shown the ability to set a hard pace on the feet before.

Predicted Result: Soriano TKO Round 1

If Soriano can keep his butt off the mat, his experience against stronger opposition will shine brightly. While Soriano will always be at threat of falling to a submission, Nuerdanbieke lacks any sort of striking ability to set up the takedown. Soriano will have total freedom on the feet and has shown the ability to set a hard pace on the feet before.

Result: Nuerdanbieke def. Soriano // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Luana Pinheiro (9-1) vs Sam Hughes (5-3)

Women’s Strawweight (115)

Luana Pinheiro

It is still too early to say how good Luana Pinheiro could be. Despite a long string of first-round finishes over questionable opposition in Brazil, Pinheiro’s first test ended via an illegal up kick courtesy of Randa Markos. Pinheiro did showcase decent timing on her counter-rights and surprisingly sharp takedown reversals. Suffice to say, before Markos’ illegality, Pinheiro was dominating the affair.

Sam Hughes

Sam Hughes is a gritty, roster filler fighter who is unlikely to ever climb out of the depths of unranked Strawweight. Boasting an incredible chin, Hughes continues to plough forward and pressure opponents to the cage. Unfortunately, Hughes is far too easy to takedown and her lack of angles when striking leaves it far too easy for opponents to stick and move.

Predicted Result: Pinheiro Decision

Sam Hughes is a gritty, roster filler fighter who boasts an incredible chin and relentless pressure. Unfortunately, Hughes is far too easy to takedown and her lack of angles when striking leaves it far too easy for opponents to stick and move. Pinheiro remains a somewhat unknown quantity, but the Brazilian looked a slick counter-puncher against Randa Markos. Her slick takedown reversals in particular lead me to believe that Hughes will struggle to impose a grapple heavy gameplan on the Brazilian.

Result: Pinheiro def. Hughes // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

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Prediction Accuracy

UFC Fight Night 198

Winner: 5/11

Method: 4/11

Round: 4/11

2021 MMA Season

Winner: 280/450

Method: 208/450

Round: 191/450

MMA Overall

Winner: 471/754

Method: 345/754

Round: 317/754

Takeaway comments: Shame we never got to see McKinney in action, on a card that desperately needed a finish.


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