UFC Fight Night 195: Ladd vs Dumont Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 195: Ladd vs Dumont Predictions & Results

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Hey, at least Danny Roberts is fighting? Aside from a dreadful main event that appeals to nobody, Arlovski and Miller both feature to give some sort of notable name power to a dreadful card. As usual, this doesn’t necessarily mean the fights won’t be fun. The issue is that the match-ups and limited star power on offer in UFC Fight Night 195 does little to attract the masses.

Failed to catch the action from the last UFC? No worries. Peep our preview from las week via UFC Fight Night 194: Dern vs Rodriguez Predictions.

Unconvinced by Pintsized’s mystical predicting powers? Take a look at our prediction success last month detailed in UFC Predictions Results: August 2021.

It's hard not to love company man and fearsome submission artist, Jim Miller | UFC Fight Night 195 Predictions
It’s hard not to love company man and fearsome submission artist, Jim Miller | UFC Fight Night 195 Predictions

UFC Fight Night 195: Main Event

Norma Dumont (6-1) vs Aspen Ladd (9-1)

Women’s Featherweight (145)

Norma Dumont

A solid counter-puncher, Dumont excels in the pocket rather than at distance. As strange as that initially seems, it is Dumont’s lack of feints and traps that finds her more success when trading up close. Dumont’s success at range, however, is based around decent distance control and slick defensive movement. Ladd’s willingness to throw volume and subsequent tendency to walk onto hard shots will create regular opportunities for the Brazilian to land.

Anyone who loses to Megan Anderson has to be considered fairly gravely in future match-ups, however. If Ladd seeks to blindly close the distance and wrap up Dumont, the Brazilian has already shown slick defensive grappling to break from Felicia Spencer’s smothering tactics. Dumont’s overreliance on the jab to set up counters may find her losing early trades, however, as Ladd often forgoes the jab in favour of harder single shots.

Aspen Ladd

How on Earth do you earn a main event spot after missing weight against Macy Chiasson? The horrendous weight cut just a fortnight ago may still scar Ladd, even if she is fighting at 145lbs. Worse yet, Ladd’s bullying tactics stem in large part from her physical advantages at Bantamweight. GDR highlighted how easily Ladd’s defensively lax forward pressure can be stopped with powerful counters. Fortunately for Ladd, Dumont doesn’t crack as hard as de Randamie.

If Ladd approaches the fight with a clear gameplan to get this to the mat, she has a solid chance of ending this before the final bell. While much of the ground and pound is exacerbated by her screams, Ladd’s flurries from the top position force referee’s to intervene than the threat of sleeping her opponent. The money sequence will be Ladd’s lead hook dropping an overextended Dumont off a jab, before Ladd finishes a still dazed opponent on the mat.

Predicted Result: Dumont Decision

Dumont’s success at range is based around decent distance control and slick defensive movement. Ladd’s willingness to throw volume and subsequent tendency to walk onto hard shots will create regular opportunities for the Brazilian to land. Dumont’s overreliance on the jab to set up counters may find her losing early trades, however, as Ladd often forgoes the jab in favour of harder single shots.

If Ladd approaches the fight with a clear gameplan to get this to the mat, she has a solid chance of ending this before the final bell. Ladd’s flurries from the top position force referee’s to intervene, even when many shots are tagging the guard. Ladd’s lead hook may drop Dumont, or at least earn the Brazilian’s respect.

Result: Dumont def. Ladd // Decision (unanimous – 48-47, 49-46, 49-46)

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

Fighting a far larger opponent last time did not find Ladd great success | UFC Fight Night 195 Predictions
Fighting a far larger opponent last time did not find Ladd great success | UFC Fight Night 195 Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 195: Co-Main Event

Andrei Arlovski (31-20) vs Carlos Felipe (11-1)

Heavyweight (265+)

Andrei Arlovski

Whisper it, but Andre Arlovski could once again claw his way back towards the higher end of the rankings. Riding a 3-1 streak, Arlovski has successfully gatekept against Philipe Lins, Tanner Boser and Chase Sherman. Better yet, the sole loss to Tom Aspinall saw Arlovski out-fox the Brit on the feet. There is no denying that Arlovski is athletically shot, but his technical transformation and chin renaissance has seen the Belarussian emerge as the sternest gatekeeper a Heavyweight could meet. Educated counter-striking and strong TDD keeps Arlovksi dangerous into the twilight of his twilight.

Carlos Felipe

Ugh. Felipe is everything that is wrong with the Heavyweight division. A strong chin and deep-ish gas tank allow Felipe to maintain heavy pressure, but seriously, how is a fighter of this calibre capable of earning a 3-1 record in the UFC. Decent bodywork will see Felipe achieve considerable success against Arlovski, however. The Belarussian will be able to slip most of the work targetted at his head, but his body rarely is defended with similar gusto. Body straights, liver shots and most importantly, single body jabs, will all frustrate Arlovski into opening up.

Predicted Result: Arlovski Decision

I fail to see how this could be anything other than a boring Arlovski clinic. There is no denying that Arlovski is athletically shot, but his technical transformation and chin renaissance has seen the Belarussian emerge as the sternest gatekeeper a Heavyweight could meet. Educated counter-striking and strong TDD keeps Arlovksi dangerous into the twilight of his twilight.

Felipe is utterly average, however, his focus on the body at least creates an interesting dynamic. Arlovksi often blocks most of the work targeted at his head, but his body rarely is defended with similar gusto. Body straights, liver shots and most importantly, single body jabs, will all frustrate Arlovski into opening up.

Result: Arlovski def. Felipe // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

God bless Andrei Arlovski, what a career the Belarussian has forged for himself | UFC Fight Night 195 Predictions
God bless Andrei Arlovski, what a career the Belarussian has forged for himself | UFC Fight Night 195 Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 195: Main Card

Jim Miller (32-16) vs Erick Gonzalez (14-5)

Lightweight (155)

Jim Miller

This seems like a decent fight for Miller to extend his UFC victories record. Decision losses to Vinc Pichel and Joe Solecki don’t necessarily indicate Miller has declined dramatically, both men are emerging as exciting prospects. Of course, the major issue has also been Miller’s stamina issues. The veteran is a freakish threat in the first round, brave enough on the feet to trade with opponents with the primary intent to drag fighters to the mat and subbing them.

Erick Gonzalez

UFC debutant, Erick Gonzalez, faces an uphill battle against Miller. The Californian ramps up his volume throughout the rounds, but the pivotal segment of the fight will be the first five minutes. Humberto Bandenay, Rafa Garcia and Andres Quintana all out-wrestled Gonzalez. If Gonzalez attempts to fly out of the block and make a statement early, Miller is more than capable of latching onto a limb.

Predicted Result: Miller Submission Round 1

It is never re-assuring backing a fighter who essentially represents a one-round threat, but Miller’s experience and elite submission arsenal should gel with Gonzalez’s forward pressure. Humberto Bandenay, Rafa Garcia and Andres Quintana all out-wrestled Gonzalez. If Gonzalez attempts to fly out of the block and make a statement early, Miller will be more than willing to latch onto a limb and cash out early.

Result: Miller def. Gonzalez // KO (punch) Round 2 0:14

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Manon Fiorot (7-1) vs Mayra Bueno Silva (7-1-1)

Women’s Flyweight (125)

Manon Fiorot

The Frenchwoman may have finally found her first match, or at least test, in her UFC career. What appears like terrifying kickboxing ability on paper sort of falls apart with the understanding that Fiorot’s physical superiority allowed her to comfortably out-muscle her opponents. Fiorot won’t be allowed the time or space to pick single head kicks or her awkward angled jab.

Mayra Bueno Silva

Silva certainly has an advantage on the mat, but likewise, Silva benefits from her superior size over opponents. Without a single takedown attempt throughout her UFC career, Silva could be setting herself up to losing an ugly decision on the feet. Silva’s chin should be able to hold up to Fiorot’s pressure, but it will be difficult for the Brazilian to showcase enough work on the feet to secure rounds.

Predicted Result: Fiorot Decision

With both women preferring to bully opponents on the basis of their size, this could result in the ugliest fight of the night. Fiorot won’t be allowed the time or space to pick single head kicks or her awkward angled jab. Likewise, Silva won’t be able to brute force her opponent to the mat – having achieved zero takedowns throughout her UFC tenure. Silva’s chin should be able to hold up to Fiorot’s pressure, but it will be difficult for the Brazilian to showcase enough work on the feet to secure rounds.

Result: Fiorot def. Silva // Decision (unanimous – 30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

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L’udovit Klein (17-3) vs Nate Landwehr (14-4)

Featherweight (145)

L’udovit Klein

The first-round monster finally came unstuck against Mike Trizano last time out. The head-kicking menace masks his power behind crisp boxing. With Landwehr almost certainly bull-rushing his way forward for the entirety of the fight, Klein’s early body kicks will pay dividends. Against an opponent who never moves off of the centre-line, Klein can also fire his front kick through the middle and sleep, Landwehr.

Nate Landwehr

Hahaha. The immense marketing prowess of Nate Landwehr returns. After his cringe-inducing post-fight antics against Darren Elkins, Landwehr lasted only 56 seconds against Julian Erosa. Alas, Landwehr is a brutally aggressive fighter who looks to out-grit opponents on the feet and mat. Greater focus needs to be placed on his wrestling chops, especially when considering his chin’s failures at the UFC level.

Predicted Result: Klein TKO Round 1

With Landwehr almost certainly bull-rushing his way forward for the entirety of the fight, Klein’s early body kicks will pay dividends. Against an opponent who never moves off of the centre-line, Klein can also fire his front kick through the middle and sleep, Landwehr. It would take Landwehr falling upon his wrestling chops on Saturday to find success, especially when considering his chin’s failures at the UFC level.

Result: Landwehr def. Klein // Submission (anaconda choke) Round 3 2:22

Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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UFC Fight Night 195: Preliminary Card

Andrew Sanchez (12-6) vs Bruno Silva (20-6)

Middleweight (185)

Andrew Sanchez

The aggressive volume of Sanchez has been somewhat reeled in behind more calculated footwork and shot selection. No longer bowling head-first into opponents, Sanchez’s front-foot pressure is based around cutting off the cage rather than blocking an opponent’s path with volume. With less strain on the gas tank, Sanchez represents a greater threat in the later rounds – least not on the mat with an underrated submission game.

Bruno Silva

A more than capable grappler combined with knockout power and a questionable chin? Easy highlight reels both sides of the tape, baby. Even with all the improvements made to Sanchez’s approach, his leaky striking defence and survival instincts eventually draw him into a firefight. To trade 50/50 with Bruno Silva is not advisable. Although Silva struggles to find a rhythm throughout fights, his power is the greatest equaliser and may be enough to sway Sanchez away from the takedown.

Predicted Result: Silva TKO Round 3

The aggressive volume of Sanchez has been somewhat reeled in behind more calculated footwork and shot selection. With less strain on the gas tank, Sanchez represents a greater threat in the later rounds – least not on the mat with an underrated submission game. The same mental failings will continue, however, often losing confidence in his ability when closing out fights. Although Silva struggles to find a rhythm throughout fights, his power is the greatest equaliser.

Result: Silva def. Sanchez // TKO (punches) Round 3 2:35

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

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Danny Roberts (17-5) vs Ramazan Emeev (20-4y)

Welterweight (170)

Danny Roberts

Damn, I love me some Danny Roberts. A kill or be killed fighter, Roberts is a well-rounded threat who mentally falls off by the final round. Confidence is key behind Roberts’ success. Landing early against Zelim Imadaev, an opponent who was still highly rated following a close decision loss to Max Griffin, Roberts remained busy before finding the stoppage at the end of the second round. Durability is a major issue, especially at thirty-four years old, but there are still a few tasty match-ups for Hot Chocolate to play his part in.

Ramazan Emeev

The great frustrator, Ramazan Emeev, is one of the names on the roster who draws in almost zero fanfare. Churning out regular decisions, Emeev is starting to hit a ceiling as he ramps up the quality of his opposition. Grinding opponents against the cage, Emeev is technically sound enough to control the unranked masses at Welterweight. When Emeev faces an athletic freak, however, the Russian will pay for his lack of killer instinct. If Emeev cannot close the distance, Roberts will out-work the Russian with ease, but the Brit lacks the elite footwork to keep himself off the cage.

Predicted Result: Emeev Decision

The great frustrator, Ramazan Emeev, is one of the names on the roster who draws in almost zero fanfare. Although Emeev is starting to hit a ceiling as he ramps up the quality of his opposition, his grinding technical style should be enough to take away Roberts’ early sting. If Emeev cannot close the distance, Roberts will out-work the Russian with ease, but the Brit lacks the elite footwork to keep himself off the cage.

Result: Roberts def. Emeev // Decision (split – 28-29, 29-28, 30-27)

Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

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Lupita Godinez (6-1) vs Luana Carolina (7-2)

Women’s Flyweight (125)

Lupita Godinez

After beating the brakes off of Silvana Gomez Juarez just a week ago, submitting the UFC debutant in a round, Godinez jumps up a weight class on a speedy return. Sacrificing 8″ of reach and 4″ of height, Godinez’s frame will once again prove an issue as has been frequent throughout her career. The looping overhands of Godinez shouldn’t have any place to land in this stylistic nightmare, yet this is unranked Women’s Flyweight – it isn’t exactly peak quality.

Luana Carolina

Carolina, despite representing the far less impressive technical savant, has the style to pick apart Godinez. As the stronger fighter, she could thwart Godinez’s wrestling through sheer physical power alone. Better yet for the Brazilian, Carolina’s preference for straight shots can be safely thrown in bunches as Godinez will struggle to close the distance created by their differences in frame. Carolina hasn’t shown the maturity to fight to her preferred game, instead, finding herself following the pace set by opponents.

Predicted Result: Godinez Decision

Sacrificing 8″ of reach and 4″ of height, Godinez’s frame will once again prove an issue as has been frequent throughout her career. The speedy return may benefit Godinez, coming off a submission win last weekend. Carolina, as the naturally stronger fighter and preference for straight shots both create a stylistic nightmare for Godinez. The Brazilian hasn’t yet shown the maturity to dictate the terms of a fight, however.

Result: Carolina def. Godinez // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

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Brandon Davis (14-8) vs Danaa Batgerel (9-2y)

Bantamweight (135)

Brandon Davis

Brandon Davis returns to the UFC after a four-fight streak on the regional scene. The key area for Davis will be on the mat, and whether the American can out-wrestle Batgerel. Heili Alateng was able to snap up Batgerel’s leg regularly as the powerful pocket puncher planted his feet. Davis can somewhat bank on his chin holding up in the early sequences, but every shot Davis’ takes he rolls the dice as the Mongolian possesses stupid power for the weight.

Danaa Batgerel

After a rude awakening against Heili Alateng in his UFC debut, Batgerel has showcased his ferocious power against Guido Cannetti and Kevin Natividad. Despite his slight frame for the weight class, Batgerel wades into the pocket and aims to out-trade opponents through physical superiority. Davis’ defensive movement is not slick enough to keep the fight on the outside, and as long as Batgerel keeps the American’s attention away from wrestling, I’m backing the Mongolian to extend his streak to three fights.

Predicted Result: Batgerel Decision

Despite his slight frame for the weight class, Batgerel wades into the pocket and aims to out-trade opponents through physical superiority. Davis’ defensive movement is not slick enough to keep the fight on the outside, and as long as Batgerel keeps the American’s attention away from wrestling, I’m backing the Mongolian to extend his streak to three fights.

Result: Batgerel def. Davis // TKO (elbows and punches) Round 1 2:01

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Ariane Carnelossi (13-2) vs Istela Nunes (7-1)

Women’s Strawweight (115)

Ariane Carnelossi

Tough as nails, heavy hands and honest plodding pressure creates exciting fights in a division often drowned in controlling, grappling performances. As seen against Na Liang, Carnelossi’s heart and recovery will see through rough early tides to stay in a fight. The Brazilian’s complete commitment to striking in the clinch makes her an easy target to floor, however.

Istela Nunes

Coming off of a long suspension for PEDs, who knows what version of Nunes we will see in the UFC? Based on previous performances, Nunes loves to keep fights standing and pick apart opponents behind her imposing Muay Thai style. Nunes throws a lot of shoulder feints, but there is rarely ever work thrown behind the feints thus leaving her to expend energy without gain.

Predicted Result: Carnelossi Decision

Coming off of a long suspension for PEDs, who knows what version of Nunes we will see in the UFC? Based on previous performances, Nunes’ preference to keep the fight standing will play into Carnelossi’s hands. Showcasing her heart and recovery against Na Liang, Carnelossi as the fresher fighter should be backed to walk down Nunes.

Result: Carnelossi def. Nunes // Submission (rear-naked choke) Round 3 2:57

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Prediction Accuracy

UFC Fight Night 195

Winner: 7/10

Method: 7/10

Round: 7/10

2021 MMA Season

Winner: 239/390

Method: 184/390

Round: 171/390

MMA Overall

Winner: 430/694

Method: 321/694

Round: 297/694

Takeaway comments: Oh God, this means Nate Landwehr is returning to our screens.


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