UFC 282 Predictions, Odds and Results: Blachowicz vs Ankalaev
UFC 282 Pintsized Background
The PPV tag of UFC 282 feels different depending on which side of the Atlantic Ocean you reside on. American fans have a right to feel mugged off, after losing the glittering headliner between Jiri Prochazka and Glover Teixeira. Meanwhile, UK fans will receive yet another PPV free of charge, featuring local stars such as Darren Till and Paddy Pimblett.
The UFC 282 Main Card has taken a serious knock after losing Prochazka’s first title defence, but bumping Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev up to the main event is a somewhat suitable replacement. UFC 282’s co-main, Paddy Pimblett and Jared Gordon, represent one of the worst PPV co-main match-ups based on records – that doesn’t mean it won’t be fun, though!
Our featured preliminary for UFC 282 involves 18-year-old, Raul Rosas Jr, making his debut after cruising to a victory in his DWCS appearance back in September. Pintsized’s pick of the prelims involves a Middleweight ‘loser goes home’ affair between the once highly rated striker, Edmen Shahbazyan, and the comedically stumpy frame of Dalcha Lungiambula.
Where/When is UFC 282 taking place:
December 10, 2022. T-Mobile Arena. Nevada, United States.
What time does UFC 282 start:
🇬🇧 UK: 11pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 6pm
What channel is UFC 282 on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
🚀 Preview: UFC Orlando Predictions, Odds and Results: Thompson vs Holland
💰 PI’s Recommended Fight: Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland
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UFC 282 Picks & Odds
| UFC 282 Odds | UFC 282 Predictions |
|---|---|
| Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev Odds: (+240) / (-285) | Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev Prediction: Ankalaev Decision |
| Paddy Pimblett vs Jared Gordon Odds: (-250) / (+210) | Paddy Pimblett vs Jared Gordon Prediction: Pimblett Submission Round 2 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Alex Morono Odds: (-180) / (+155) | Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Alex Morono Prediction: Ponzinibbio TKO Round 3 |
| Darren Till vs Dricus Du Plessis Odds: (+150) / (-175) | Darren Till vs Dricus Du Plessis Prediction: Till TKO Round 1 |
| Bryce Mitchell vs Ilia Topuria Odds: (+120) / (-140) | Bryce Mitchell vs Ilia Topuria Prediction: Topuria Decision |
| Jay Perrin vs Raul Rosas Jr Odds: (+195) / (-230) | Jay Perrin vs Raul Rosas Jr Prediction: Rosas Jr Decision |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Chris Daukaus Odds: (-170) / (+145) | Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Chris Daukaus Prediction: Rozenstruik TKO Round 1 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dalcha Lungiambula Odds: (-295) / (+245) | Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dalcha Lungiambula Prediction: Shahbazyan TKO Round 1 |
| Chris Curtis vs Joaquin Buckley Odds: (+140) / (-165) | Chris Curtis vs Joaquin Buckley Prediction: Curtis Decision |
| Billy Quarantillo vs Alexander Hernandez Odds: (-170) / (+145) | Billy Quarantillo vs Alexander Hernandez Prediction: Quarantillo Decision |
| Erik Silva vs TJ Brown Odds: (-110) / (-110) | Erik Silva vs TJ Brown Prediction: Silva TKO Round 1 |
| Daniel da Silva vs Vinicius Salvador Odds: (+210) / (-250) | Daniel da Silva vs Vinicius Salvador Prediction: Salvador TKO Round 2 |
| Cameron Saaiman vs Steven Koslow Odds: (-380) / (+310) | Cameron Saaiman vs Steven Koslow Prediction: Saaiman Decision |
UFC 282: Main Event
Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev
Light Heavyweight (205)
UFC Vacant Light Heavyweight Championship
Jan Blachowicz (29-9)
After disastrously losing the Light Heavyweight belt to a 42-year-old, Jan Blachowicz has a second chance to bring the title back to Poland. Deep into the twilight of his career, Blachowicz has transformed himself into a heavy-handed bruiser that is a nuisance to take down. Well, that was until Teixeira eventually broke the Pole’s confidence in remaining standing.
A hard-fought win over Aleksandr Rakic may have ended in a leg injury for the youthful foe, but Blachowicz looked far more comfortable in all areas of the fight. Rakic was able to control Blachowicz for the majority of Round 2, but the 39-year-olds hands looked crispy clean again. Ankalaev hasn’t dug deep into his wrestling over his UFC career, but questions are likely to be asked of Jan at some point.
Magomed Ankalaev (18-1)
Mirroring Blachowicz’s recent victory via leg injury, Ankalaev dismantled the usually durable Anthony Smith. On the feet, both Jan and Ankalaev will want to settle into their jab to control distance. Both fighters enjoy a comfortable pace so don’t be surprised if the two locks into bit-piece range striking while waiting for counters – especially as neither fighter sets up traps for effective counterstriking.
The Paul Craig buzzer-beater loss will remain a blemish on the Dagestani’s record, but a nine-fight streak proves that it was a momentary blip rather than a hole in his skillset. Ankalaev isn’t a relentless wrestler – for example, he opted to test himself on the feet against Thiago Santos and only attempted two takedowns. Ankalaev’s chin so far seems strong enough to handle the firepower of Blachowicz’s blitzes. Can Ankalaev maintain a high enough volume to win over the scorers?
Blachowicz vs Ankalaev Prediction: Ankalaev Decision
On the feet, both Jan and Ankalaev will want to settle into their jab to control distance. Both fighters enjoy a comfortable pace so don’t be surprised if the two lock into bit-piece range striking while waiting for counters – especially as neither fighter sets up regular traps for effective counterstriking.
Ankalaev’s chin so far seems strong enough to handle the firepower of Blachowicz’s blitzes. Can Ankalaev maintain a high enough volume to win over the scorers? Of course, Ankalaev has a wrestling base to tap into, but he has seemed averse to taking fights to the ground recently. For example, it took Anakalev until Round Four to consider wrestling Thiago Santos. The extra tools leave me leaning towards another Dagestani (vacant) champion.
UFC 282: Co-Main Event
Paddy Pimblett vs Jared Gordon
Lightweight (155)
Paddy Pimblett (19-3)
MMA fandoms are fickle folk. Paddy the Baddy has turned into a heel overnight after firing shots at Ariel Helwani, but a highlight reel win over the weekend will flip the narrative just as quickly. Make no mistake, Pimblett has a lot of maturing to endure if he wants to climb towards the top of the division. As of now, Pimblett’s rapid recovery, fearless aggression on the feet and slick submission arsenal will keep putting bums on seats.
Jared Gordon (19-5)
The 34-year-old has an unreal backstory, one that is deserving of greater attention from the UFC marketing machine. Jared Gordon is by no means an entertaining fighter, but he is well-rounded and represents a stark step up in competition for the mouthy Scouser. It was only four months ago that Gordon out-struck Leonardo Santos around 3-1 on the feet (Significant Strikes: Gordon 116 – 36 Santos). Gordon can hold his own on the mat, but he can be physically overwhelmed (Grant Dawson nailed 7 takedowns) and tends to offer his back (Pimblett enters on a two-fight streak of rear naked chokes).
Pimblett vs Gordon Prediction: Pimblett Submission Round 2
Pimblett has a lot of maturing to endure if he wants to climb towards the top of the division. As of now, Pimblett’s rapid recovery, fearless aggression on the feet and slick submission arsenal will keep putting bums on seats. That isn’t to write off Jared Gordon, the 34-year-old is a well-rounded fighter and represents a stark step up in competition. It was only four months ago that Gordon out-struck Leonardo Santos around 3-1 on the feet. Unfortunately, Gordon tends to offer his back, an area that Pimblett excels at punishing – entering UFC 282 on a two-fight streak of rear naked chokes.
UFC 282: Main Card
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Alex Morono
Catchweight (180)
Santiago Ponzinibbio (28-6)
Once highly rated as Welterweight’s next big thing, Ponzinibbio is sitting on a 1-3 record since his return in 2021. Granted, the Argentine’s last two fights have been split decision losses, but they have been worrying performances. Ponzinibbio is noticeably slower on the feet, more timid in his approach and takes punishment with far less certainty. The 36-year-old remains a heavy-handed threat with chopping low kicks that will just about be the athletic superior to his opponent on Saturday.
Alex Morono (22-7)
Alex Morono is at his very best off the back of a training camp as one of the most consummate game planners in the organisation. Taking the fight at short notice is a major red flag, even with Ponzinibbio on a career downslide. The Great White has set hard paces and comfortably out-struck the likes of Mickey Gall and Matthew Semelsberger, but Ponzinibbio carries much greater threat.
Ponzinibbio vs Morono Prediction: Ponzinibbio TKO Round 3
Alex Morono is at his very best off the back of a training camp as one of the most consummate game planners in the organisation. Taking the fight at short notice is a major red flag, even with Ponzinibbio on a career downslide. The Argentinian is noticeably slower on the feet, more timid in his approach and takes punishment with far less certainty. Morono sets a high pace on the front foot, however, and will likely eat a ton of punishment in the process.
Darren Till vs Dricus Du Plessis
Middleweight (185)
Darren Till (18-4-1)
Watching the interviews and social media posts would lead you to believe that Darren Till is finally back in physical and mental shape. Till is a great talker, however. We won’t truly know what state Till is in until he enters the octagon, but the signs are positive. The Liverpudlian, at his best, is capable of measuring distance immediately and consistently threatening with his liquid left hand. Du Plessis is a ferociously aggressive brawler, but this should be a stylistic dream for Till who can slide laterally and counter Du Plessis as he falls into his blitzes.
Dricus Du Plessis (17-2)
Du Plessis’ base, surprisingly, is his strong grappling and submissions. The South African hasn’t been able to impose his strength on the mat in the UFC, however, he has gotten by on the back of his wildly aggressive striking. There is no doubting the power in Du Plessis’ hands as well as a surprising gas tank that was missing earlier in his career. Du Plessis could break down Till through vastly superior output, but The Gorilla is technically cleaner and capable of exposing Du Plessis’ flaws.
Till vs Du Plessis Prediction: Till TKO Round 1
A very, very spicy pick that shouldn’t be supported. Perhaps it’s Till’s ability to talk large in interviews, but there is a decent reason to believe that the Scouser is returning with the right mental state after a camp in Thailand. Du Plessis is a ferociously aggressive brawler, but this should be a stylistic dream for Till who has the technical wealth to counter Du Plessis as he falls into his blitzes. Of course, Till is also a comedically low-output fighter with a lack of stoppages in his record. The flaws in Du Plessis’ striking are too glaring to overlook, even if deep down I truly believe that his heavy hands will be enough to break Till down over three rounds.
Bryce Mitchell vs Ilia Topuria
Featherweight (145)
Bryce Mitchell (15-0)
A shoo-in for FOTN, the winner of Mitchell vs Topuria has a decent argument to push for a title shot. Thug Nasty surprised many when he opted to trade with Edson Barboza for extended stretches of their fight. Of course, Mitchell still weaved in under 12 minutes of control time, but he was deadly accurate with his striking too. Considering just how hittable Topuria is, Mitchell’s volume should regularly hit the mark against his aggressive foe.
Ilia Topuria (12-0)
The Georgian is a frightening bulldozer of a man considering his small stature. Topuria is supremely confident, walking down his opponents and unleashing hellacious body shots. El Matador’s confidence was best exhibited in his willingness to meet Ryan Hall on the ground and beat the BJJ wizard into an early night. Topuria answered many questions in his recent victory over Jai Herbert, recovering after a huge knockdown to nuke the Brummy in the second round. Expecting Mitchell to start effectively, only for Topuria’s pressure to make the difference down the stretch.
Mitchell vs Topuria Prediction: Topuria Decision
Thug Nasty surprised many when he opted to trade with Edson Barboza for extended stretches of their fight. Of course, Mitchell still weaved in under 12 minutes of control time, but he was deadly accurate with his striking too. Considering just how hittable Topuria is, Mitchell’s volume should regularly hit the mark against his aggressive foe. Yet, Topuria answered questions over his durability with a brutal second-round knockout of Jai Herbert following a huge scare early in their fight. Expecting Mitchell to start effectively, only for Topuria’s pressure to make the difference down the stretch.
UFC 282: Preliminary Card
Jay Perrin vs Raul Rosas Jr
Bantamweight (135)
Jay Perrin (10-6)
Jay Perrin is under no false impression that he has been called in to fall over against the UFC’s next prospect. Perrin is sitting on a 0-2 record with the organisation, owing to his ‘swang n bang’ approach to fights. His aggression often sees him running into takedowns, an area that the UFC brass will have envisaged Raul Rosas Jr exploiting.
Raul Rosas Jr (6-0)
At just 18 years old, Raul Rosas Jr is set to make his UFC debut as the featured preliminary of a pay-per-view. Naturally, that is going to draw haters, more so because of his brash confidence that comes only from youth. As a fighter, there is a lot of room left for Rosas Jr to grow physically – it will be a challenge for the UFC to appropriately bled their prospect. The Mexican’s hands remain a work in progress, but there is a lot to like about his sweltering wrestling and ground game.
Perrin vs Rosas Jr Prediction: Rosas Jr Decision
There is a lot of room left for Rosas Jr to grow physically – it will be a challenge for the UFC to appropriately bled their prospect. The Mexican’s hands remain a work in progress, but there is a lot to like about his sweltering wrestling and ground game. Jay Perrin’s aggression often sees him running into takedowns, an area that the UFC brass no doubt envisaged Raul Rosas Jr exploiting. If you want a reason to back the dog, however, Perrin is an experienced operator with enough intent on the feet to shock an inexperienced teenager.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Chris Daukaus
Heavyweight (265)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-4)
At this point, there’s not much else to add to what is already known about Jairzinho Rozenstruik. If opponents sit within the Suriname native’s range, they will get their chin checked with his demolition power. If not, Rozenstruik will be left stranded on his back foot and lacking any tools to counter opponents at range. Long gone are the days of 2019 when we could pretend that Rozenstruik was an entertaining Heavyweight.
Chris Daukaus (12-5)
Since giving up his day job as a policeman and becoming a full-time mixed martial artist, Chris Daukaus holds a 0-2 record. Granted, they’ve come against the best competition he has faced in his career so far, but his ceiling may already have been met. One of the more polished boxers at 265lbs, Daukaus has an edge in hand speed over all Heavyweights which tends to catch them by surprise. Sadly, his best work is within the pocket – the danger area against Rozenstruik – while his chin hasn’t held up to the harder hitters of the division.
Rozenstruik vs Daukaus Prediction: Rozenstruik TKO Round 1
One of the more polished boxers at 265lbs, Daukaus has an edge in hand speed over all Heavyweights which tends to catch them by surprise. Sadly, his best work is within the pocket – the danger area against Rozenstruik – while his chin hasn’t held up to the harder hitters of the division. Rozenstruik is thoroughly limited in approach and dull to watch, but he is exceptionally consistent in hurting opponents in the pocket.
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dalcha Lungiambula
Middleweight (185)
Edmen Shahbazyan (11-3)
As an unabashed Shahbazyan fan, it’s been a painful couple of years. The major issue in 2021 was an inability to maintain high pressure across the three rounds. Worryingly, it was a struggle for Shahbazyan to maintain his pace for the entirety of the first round. Having left coach Edmond Tarverdyan, there is a hope that his slick striking and underrated grappling chops can be lauded once again.
Dalcha Lungiambula (11-5)
Another fighter facing a similar 0-3 spiral in the UFC, Dalcha Lungiambula’s hype is truly in the dirt as well. A far cry from the fighter who was holding his own against Magomed Ankalaev before a third-round front kick shut his lights out. The cruel mistress that is MMA. Restricted by his short stature, Lungiambula has been regularly unable to showcase his judo background and instead finds most of his success from high-volume striking. Such aggression places him in dangerous areas that Shahbazyan can punish with the power he carries.
Shahbazyan vs Lungiambula Prediction: Shahbazyan TKO Round 1
Both fighters are spiralling on 0-3 slides, giving this fight a real ‘loser leaves town’ sort of flavour. Having left coach Edmond Tarverdyan, there is a hope that Edmen Shahbazyan’s slick striking and underrated grappling chops can be lauded once again. There’s certainly a higher ceiling for Shahbazyan than Lungiambula who has been regularly unable to showcase his judo background. Now a high-volume striker, Lungiambula’s aggression places him in dangerous areas that Shahbazyan can punish with the power he carries.
Chris Curtis vs Joaquin Buckley
Middleweight (185)
Chris Curtis (29-9)
Curtis lost some of the charm of his cinderella story in his post-fight breakdown after losing to Jack Hermansson. The Action Man is a fluid counter-striker who can make adjustments on the fly as a result of his hours spent in the cage. Hermansson’s domination from distance with his jab highlighted the flaws in Curtis’ game, but Buckley isn’t the sort of fighter to lay down such a composed game plan.
Joaquin Buckley (15-5)
The former highlight reel sweetheart of the UFC, Joaquin Buckley has settled into an entertaining if limited fighter. Buckley is dynamic and explosive enough to create opportunities against any opponent. Of note, Buckley is finally matched with an opponent of similar size, often struggling against much taller opponents. Can New Mansa deal with Curtis’ devastating body strikes?
Curtis vs Buckley Prediction: Curtis Decision
Buckley is dynamic and explosive enough to create opportunities against any opponent. Of note, Buckley is finally matched with an opponent of similar size, often struggling against much taller opponents. Unfortunately for Buckley, he is particularly one-note in his rhythm. Curtis is a deeply experienced striker who will pick up on Buckley’s tendencies. Can New Mansa deal with Curtis’ devastating body strikes?
Billy Quarantillo vs Alexander Hernandez
Featherweight (145)
Billy Quarantillo (16-4)
Billy Q, one of the best products from the DWCS, is settling into a win-one-lose-one sort of career. Quarantillo is an aggressive submission artist but tends to keep the fight standing as a result of backing his granite chin. Quarantilo’s gas tank is also an issue, but his heart usually carries him in the later rounds – just ask Kyle Nelson and Gabriel Benitez.
Alexander Hernandez (13-5)
Hernandez has never been the same fighter since his humbling TKO loss to Donald Cerrone. Alexander the Great’s aggression and pressure were enough to crush Beneil Dariush in under a minute, but most opponents understand that the onslaught tends to fade after the first round. Hernandez is a heavy-handed head hunter and an oppressive grappler for five minutes, but it won’t be enough to break Billy Q.
Quarantillo vs Hernandez Prediction: Quarantillo Decision
Alexander the Great’s aggression and pressure were enough to crush Beneil Dariush in under a minute, but most opponents understand that the onslaught tends to fade after the first round. Hernandez is a heavy-handed head hunter and an oppressive grappler for five minutes, but it won’t be enough to break Billy Q. Quarantillo is granite chinned, a late-round threat and is capable of maintaining the type of pace that will exhaust Hernandez.
Erik Silva vs TJ Brown
Featherweight (145)
Erik Silva (9-1)
A 35-year-old UFC debutant, Silva forced Dana White to sign the contract after demolishing Anvar Boynazarov on the DWCS. Silva wasted no time in taking his Uzebki opponent to the mat and raining down hellacious ground and pound. It’s difficult to see such an elderly, untested prospect make a run in the stacked Featherweight division, but it’s worth keeping an open mind.
TJ Brown (16-9)
Sitting on a 2-3 record against a pick’n’mix of opposition, TJ Brown is a decent enough litmus paper test. A notoriously slow starter, Brown builds into fights and adapts to opponents in the later rounds. That may prove a major issue against Silva – a fighter who picked four rear-naked chokes in Rounds 1 or 2 over his tenure on the Mexican regional scene.
Silva vs Brown Prediction: Silva TKO Round 1
Silva wasted no time in his DWCS victory, taking his Uzebki opponent to the mat and raining down hellacious ground and pound. It’s difficult to see such an elderly, untested prospect make a run in the stacked Featherweight division, but it’s worth keeping an open mind. TJ Brown, a notoriously slow starter, may struggle against Silva considering the Venezuelan picked up four rear-naked chokes in Rounds 1 or 2 over his tenure on the Mexican regional scene.
Daniel da Silva vs Vinicius Salvador
Flyweight (125)
Daniel da Silva (11-4)
Finished in all three of his UFC fights, Da Silva has extended his stay based on the electric nature of his fights. Heavy-handed and an aggressive chaser of submissions, the Brazilian is a dynamic enigma who injects pace into otherwise drab prelims.
Vinicius Salvador (14-4)
Vinicius Salvador is a sizeable striker who cracks very hard with a clear weakness on the mat. Salvador is certainly powerful enough to switch off Da Silva’s lights in the opening exchange. The Brazilian is also very hittable himself, however, which leads to a coin-flip nature to the fight. Backing the confidence fighter.
Da Silva vs Salvador Prediction: Salvador TKO Round 2
Heavy-handed and an aggressive chaser of submissions, Da Silva is a dynamic enigma who injects pace into otherwise drab prelims. Unfortunately, Vinicius Salvador is a larger striker who cracks harder and owns a better chin. Although Salvador is very hittable himself, lending itself somewhat to a coin-flip fight, it’s safer to back the streaking fighter.
Cameron Saaiman vs Steven Koslow
Bantamweight (135)
Cameron Saaiman (6-0)
A South African Bantamweight showdown between two youngsters with perfect 6-0 records. It feels like a video game sort of match-up. Saaiman, just 21 years old, is expected to walk through Koslow, but he struggled with Josh Wang-Kim’s wrestling in his DWCS fight. Saaiman is a decent, composed striker with a glittering array of kicks, though.
Steven Koslow (6-0)
Footage of Steven Koslow is pretty difficult to source online, but from the tape available, it looks as though Koslow is relentless in pursuing the takedown and the back of his opponent. If unable to out-grapple opponents, it’s anyone’s guess as to how Koslow copes with a consistent pace on the feet.
Saaiman vs Koslow Prediction: Saaiman Decision
Koslow is relentless in pursuing the takedown and the back of his opponent. Saaiman, just 21 years old, is expected to walk through Koslow, but he struggled with Josh Wang-Kim’s wrestling in his DWCS fight. If Koslow is unable to out-grapple opponents, he will struggle with Saaiman’s consistent pace and a glittering array of kicks.
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