UFC 279 Predictions, Odds and Results: Diaz vs Ferguson
Pintsized Background
Where do we start? Rather, where can I finish? Diaz already seemed defeated in the press conferences, Chimaev churned out mega cringe with Kevin Holland and the Queen has died. The state of this card is revolting for a PPV.
UPDATE – Ahahaha, Chimaev missed weight by 7.5kg, the state of it. This card is cursed. The new match-up changes are through, so please do forgive the brevity of analysis – we are now updated with revised predictions.
In UFC 279’s main event, Khamzat Chimaev gets a chance to squash his new beef with Kevin Holland. Nate Diaz now gets a casual’s dream match-up with Tony Ferguson, and in all fairness, a well-matched over-the-hill bout. Finally, Jingliang Li and Daniel Rodriguez lock horns in a wonderfully intriguing striking affair.
The featured prelim for UFC 279, Hakeem Dawodu vs Julian Erosa, may not boast much star power, yet it offers an intriguing striking battle between two of the more exciting Featherweights. Lower down the prelims, there’s room for comedy between the two fat lads, Jake Collier and Chris Barnett.
Where/When is UFC 279 taking place:
September 10, 2022. T-Mobile Arena. Nevada, United States.
What time does UFC 279 start:
🇬🇧 UK: 11pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 6pm
What channel is UFC 279 on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
🚀 Preview: UFC Paris Predictions, Odds and Results: Gane vs Tuivasa
🥊 PI’s Recommended Fight: Ciryl Gane vs Tai Tuivasa
Travel down the Pintsized rabbit hole:
🥊 UFC 279 Main Card | 🌟 UFC 279 Prelims | 📺 YouTube
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UFC 279 Picks & Odds
| UFC 279 Fights & Odds | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz (+150) Tony Ferguson (-175) | Diaz | Decision | / |
| Khamzat Chimaev (-420) Kevin Holland (+330) | Chimaev | TKO | 2 |
| Jingliang Li (+135) Daniel Rodriguez (-160) | Rodriguez | Decision | / |
| Irene Aldana (-170) Macy Chiasson (+145) | Aldana | Decision | / |
| Johnny Walker (+175) Ion Cutelaba (-205) | Walker | TKO | 2 |
| Hakeem Dawodu (-215) Julian Erosa (+185) | Dawodu | Decision | / |
| Jailton Almeida (-660) Anton Turkalj (+490) | Almeida | Submission | 1 |
| Jamie Pickett (-130) Denis Tiuliulin (+110) | Pickett | Decision | / |
| Jake Collier (-410) Chris Barnett (+330) | Collier | Decision | / |
| Norma Dumont (-390) Danyelle Wolf (+320) | Dumont | Submission | 2 |
| Chad Anheliger (+145) Heili Alateng (-170) | Alateng | TKO | 3 |
| Elise Reed (+145) Melissa Martinez (-170) | Martinez | Decision | / |
| Darian Weeks (-120) Yohan Lainesse (+100) | Weeks | Decision | / |
UFC 279: Main Event
Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson
Welterweight (170)
Nate Diaz (20-13)
Over a year on the sidelines after losing every minute but one against Leon Edwards, Nate Diaz has every right to feel mistreated by the UFC. Diaz seems to have been willing to fight any and all of the big dogs in the company, yet the UFC brass went out of their way to serve Diaz a match-up that benefits neither man. Only then for the cash cow to shit the bed, miss weight, and leave Diaz with a last-minute schedule change.
Diaz no doubt still owns his ageless, trademark gas tank that keeps his hopes alive well beyond fights seem finished. The Stockton boy was a slick submission artist but has failed to find much success on the mat over the past decade (outside of an overblown, gassed McGregor). Against Ferguson, Diaz won’t face anywhere near the same wrestling threat – instead, Diaz will have to deal with a strong pace and volume. Honestly, in a five-rounder, Diaz has to be favoured to come up strong against an ageing El Cucuy.
Tony Ferguson (25-7)
On the one hand, Ferguson looked better in the first round against Michael Chandler, than he had done over nearly an hour of octagon time before that. On the other, El Cucuy was iced hard at the start of the second round – breaking the aura surrounding his legendary chin. Moreso than any other fighter, Ferguson’s style has been utterly reliant upon his confidence in his chin. Ferguson’s greatest success stems from relentless aggression and volume. Diaz doesn’t offer the same explosive threat on the feet, instead offering an attritional war that feels very much a coin-flip.
Predicted Result: Diaz Decision
On the one hand, Ferguson looked better in the first round against Michael Chandler, than he had done over nearly an hour of octagon time before that. On the other, El Cucuy was iced hard at the start of the second round – breaking the aura surrounding his legendary chin. Moreso than any other fighter, Ferguson’s style has been utterly reliant upon his confidence in his chin.
This should be an extended war of attrition, with Diaz being favoured down the stretch as the slightly less weathered fighter. Perhaps it is the heart talking, but I don’t expect either fighter to opt to go to the mat. In what could be both men’s final UFC fight, this has the foundations to be a fairytale ending for two legends.
UFC 279: Co-Main Event
Khamzat Chimaev vs Kevin Holland
Catchweight (180)
Khamzat Chimaev (11-0)
To keep it brief, this still remains a smash job. Weight cut issues, suspected medical troubles – whatever, it’s all hot air, Khamzat Chimaev is a nightmare stylistic opponent for Kevin Holland. All of Chimaev’s known offensive skills were on show against nigh-elite opposition in Gilbert Burns. Sharp boxing combinations, a lightning wrestling base and clubbing top control. Of note, however, was Chimaev’s exceptional recovery and ability to overcome adversity. Ferguson remains phenomenally durable and always willing to plug away until the end, yet as seen against Dariush and Oliveira, he is too content to work off his back.
Kevin Holland (23-7)
Will Kevin Holland rekindle the same confidence he had built during his sparkling 2020 run? Holland is yet to show his dominating striking at Welterweight as he did at Middleweight. In fairness, Holland has managed to walk down both Alex Oliveira and Tim Means in uncharacteristically sloppy performances. That seems foolish against Chimaev, a fighter who will be looking to hug legs from the opening bell. Even if the Swede opts to battle on the feet, Chimaev is a physical match that will leave Holland struggling to bully his opposition in the same manner. If Holland is to win, he needs to revert back to his slick boxing fundamentals and snappy jab that served him well at Middleweight.
Predicted Result: Chimaev TKO Round 2
To keep it brief, this still remains a smash job. Weight cut issues, suspected medical troubles – whatever, it’s all hot air, Khamzat Chimaev is a nightmare stylistic opponent for Kevin Holland. All of Chimaev’s known offensive skills were on show against nigh-elite opposition in Gilbert Burns. Sharp boxing combinations, a lightning wrestling base and clubbing top control. Of note, however, was Chimaev’s exceptional recovery and ability to overcome adversity.
Not that it should matter against Kevin Holland, even in a supposed grudge match. Holland is yet to show his dominating striking at Welterweight as he did at Middleweight, instead walking down both Alex Oliveira and Tim Means in uncharacteristically sloppy performances. That seems foolish against Chimaev, a fighter who will be looking to hug legs from the opening bell. Once cool heads prevail, this still reads as a gimme from the UFC for their latest cash cow.
UFC 279: Main Card
Jingliang Li vs Daniel Rodriguez
Catchweight (180)
Jingliang Li (19-7)
I’ve still not fully forgiven The Leech for eye-gouging Jake Matthews. I would be lying if I didn’t admit that it was saddening to see Li’s forlorn figure after going out of his way to tailor his suit for the eventual non-press conference. Li still has the chance to claim a huge scalp over a very weathered veteran. The Leech is extremely durable on the feet, capable of digging deep for a late-round push, and has refined his counter-striking over his lengthy career. D-Rod doesn’t own the fastest hands, but his laser-sharp accuracy will punish Leech if he is found lingering at mid-range.
Daniel Rodriguez (16-2)
Forget Rodriguez’s sluggish hand speed, D-Rod is a crafty boxer with exceptional accuracy. Maintaining a consistent volume over all three rounds, Rodriguez is happy to invite pressure and back his innate timing to deliver significant punishment. If Li enters Saturday, hellbent on bullying the larger Rodriguez, the fight will descend into a mess that D-Rod can stamp his mark on the most significant moments. Adding in Rodriguez’s solid TDD, it’s difficult to see Li bridging the weight gap and securing a takedown if his striking falls apart.
Predicted Result: Rodriguez Decision
The Leech is extremely durable on the feet, capable of digging deep for a late-round push, and has refined his counter-striking over his lengthy career. D-Rod doesn’t own the fastest hands, but his laser-sharp accuracy will punish Leech if he is found lingering at mid-range. If Li enters Saturday, hellbent on bullying the larger Rodriguez, the fight will descend into a mess that D-Rod can stamp his mark on the most significant moments. Adding in Rodriguez’s solid TDD, it’s difficult to see Li bridging the weight gap and securing a takedown if his striking falls apart.
Irene Aldana vs Macy Chiasson
Bantamweight (135)
Irene Aldana (13-6)
It’s been a year since we last saw Irene Aldana piece apart Yana Kunitskaya, but the lengthy striker is a welcome return to a dire division. Chiasson bases much of her game on being the larger fighter, an area that Aldana immediately strips away. Aldana’s striking will prove too much for Chiasson to handle. Jerky lateral movement combines with a snapping jab for much of the early proceedings. After making the necessary reads, Aldana is more willing to commit with her powerful right hand and settle into combinations in the pocket.
Macy Chiasson (8-2)
Chiasson lacks the grappling chops to be able to create an uncomfortable fight for Aldana. A weight bully, Chiasson’s technical pitfalls will prove her undoing on Saturday. On the outside, Chiasson will be picked apart by the Mexican’s jab. Although it isn’t too difficult to get inside of Aldana’s straight shots, Chiasson will struggle to impose herself on the inside. Aldana’s sharp combinations will land with ease on Chiasson’s undefended body.
Predicted Result: Aldana Decision
A weight bully, Chiasson’s technical pitfalls will prove her undoing on Saturday. On the outside, Chiasson will be picked apart by the Mexican’s jab. Chiasson will be a nuisance to contain on the inside during the early stages, yet once Aldana has made the necessary reads, the latter will be more willing with her powerful right hand and settle into combinations in the pocket.
Johnny Walker vs Ion Cutelaba
Light Heavyweight (205)
Johnny Walker (18-7)
Johnny Walker do kinda be a 1-4 slide, but God dammit, the Brazilian is fun to watch. The move to SBG has transitioned Walker into a terribly slow, single-shot counter-puncher but hopefully, the first-round starching to Jamahal Hill will have raised some alarm bells. The Brazilian still represents a physical specimen, while the calmer range-fighting could well benefit him against a first-round merchant in Ion Cutelaba. If Walker can get himself through the opening five minutes against the high-volume, bloodthirsty Cutelaba, he could pick up the remaining two rounds based on not being gassed.
Ion Cutelaba (16-7-1)
Cutelaba, if anything, is consistent. We can always expect the Moldovan to deliver a cringe press conference, fly out of the blocks early, and gas himself in pursuit of a finish. Cutelaba will struggle to out-muscle Walker, especially considering the small yet significant strides in Walker’s defensive grappling. On the feet though, Walker seems gun-shy since his move to SBG and his defence remains reliant upon the ‘tall-guy lean-back’. Cutelaba takes big risks chasing an opponent’s head, which is always a dangerous prospect against such a fast-twitch athlete.
Predicted Result: Walker TKO Round 2
Cutelaba, if anything, is consistent. We can always expect the Moldovan to fly out of the blocks early and gas himself in pursuit of a finish. Walker seems gun-shy since his move to SBG, losing his greatest strength of unorthodox explosive striking, whilst his defence remains reliant upon the ‘tall-guy lean-back’. Cutelaba takes big risks chasing an opponent’s head, however, which is always a dangerous prospect against such a fast-twitch athlete. With the small yet significant strides that Walker has made in his defensive grappling, I’m just about leaning towards Walker to survive a torrid first round before growing in confidence.
UFC 279: Preliminary Card
Hakeem Dawodu vs Julian Erosa
Featherweight (145)
Hakeem Dawodu (13-2-1)
This is make or break for Hakeem Dawodu. The Canadian is a striking scholar, but he has failed to ignite his career after a one-fight-a-year streak. Dawodu’s masterful distance control and timing offer sharp, natural counter-punching – but they are more often strong pieces than a cohesive game.
Julian Erosa (27-9)
For all of Dawodu’s striking prowess, Erosa could still win this through a typically gusty front-foot performance. Erosa is always a fun fighter to watch, willingly delivering a brawl from the opening bell. The veteran has become a better judge of distance and timing over his punishing career, but his non-existent defence will leave him unable to win a pure kickboxing affair on the outside.
Predicted Result: Dawodu Decision
Dawodu’s masterful distance control and timing offer sharp, natural counter-punching – but they are more often strong pieces than a cohesive game. Erosa could still win this through a typically gusty front-foot performance. The veteran has ironed out more technical front-foot striking over his punishing career, yet his non-existent defence will leave him unable to win a pure kickboxing affair on the outside. If Erosa is to win, he will have to eat a ton of punishment – never an easy back.
Jailton Almeida vs Anton Turkalj
Catchweight (220)
Jailton Almeida (16-2)
Almeida works his way down from Heavyweight back to 220lbs, a grey area where the Brazilian should prove to be a physical beast. We are still yet to see how Almeida can manoeuvre in the later rounds against UFC-level competition. Nevertheless, his early-round wrestling and submission arsenal is equal parts fun and lethal.
Anton Turkalj (8-0)
Undefeated Swedish DWCS winner, Anton Turkalj, is a finishing machine on the feet. The Pleasure Man is a late replacement and comes from a relatively unknown gym, but he still provides a minor stand-up threat. Turkalj’s striking relies more on physicality than technicals and it should show against a vastly superior opponent.
Predicted Result: Almeida Submission Round 1
Almeida works his way down from Heavyweight back to 220lbs, a grey area where the Brazilian should prove to be a physical beast. We are still yet to see how Almeida can manoeuvre in the later rounds against UFC-level competition. Anton Turkalj is not UFC-calibre, or at least, not yet proven. Turkalj fights like a man who has only spent three years in an octagon, with his striking relying more on physicality than technicals.
Jamie Pickett vs Denis Tiuliulin
Middleweight (185)
Jamie Pickett (13-7)
For some strange reason, they kept this booking after it was rescheduled from early July. I can’t imagine many fans crying out for this bottom-of-the-barrel Middleweight scrap. Pickett is a durable wrestle-boxer who, despite owning an imposing Middleweight physique, is often incapable of utilising his athletic gifts. Pickett will be offered time to find his feet against Tiuliulin, but neither man will opt to dictate proceedings.
Denis Tiuliulin (10-6)
Tiuliulin carries heavy artillery that often fails to find the mark as a result of his messy, unorthodox striking. It’s a coin-flip as to whether Pickett imposes his weight and presses an opponent to the cage or not. If Tiuliulin is lucky enough to face a patient Pickett, the Russian will eventually land something meaningful.
Predicted Result: Pickett Decision
Pickett is a durable wrestle-boxer who, despite owning an imposing Middleweight physique, is often incapable of utilising his athletic gifts. Meanwhile, Tiuliulin carries heavy artillery that often fails to find the mark as a result of his messy, unorthodox striking. Tiuliulin’s consistent aggression is the safest to back, but he is a terribly flawed fighter with a padded record. I’m backing Pickett to be offered enough time early to find his feet.
Jake Collier vs Chris Barnett
Heavyweight (265)
Jake Collier (13-7)
One of the busiest Heavyweights on the roster, the Prototype benefits heavily from owning a technical base in a disgusting poor division. Sure, Collier is vastly overweight and lacks the athletic frame to climb the ladder, but he can box blistering circles around the heavy-handed single-strikers of 265lbs.
Chris Barnett (22-8)
The heaviest weight miss of all time. Barnett has been going through it this year, unfortunately losing his wife just before his last fight with Martin Buday. After missing weight again, there remain red flags about whether Barnett is in the right frame of mind to return to fighting so soon. If not, Barnett is an entertaining, situational fighter who bases his entire game on unexpected, explosive strikes. There are few paths to victories for Barnett outside of catching opponents cold – but this is Heavyweight.
Predicted Result: Collier Decision
Collier is vastly overweight and lacks the athletic frame to climb the ladder, but he can box blistering circles around the heavy-handed single-strikers of 265lbs. After missing weight again, there remain red flags about whether Barnett is in the right frame of mind to return to fighting so soon after his wife’s passing. Barnett’s unorthodox, explosive striking catches the eye, but it limits his path to victory against every opponent.
Norma Dumont vs Danyelle Wolf
Featherweight (145)
Norma Dumont (7-2)
A solid counter-puncher, Dumont excels in the pocket rather than at distance. If anything, Dumont’s success on the inside stems from her willingness to commit to combinations. On the outside, the Brazilian has a decent sense of distance control, yet her frame often leaves her chasing fights.
Danyelle Wolf (1-0)
Three-time USA Boxing National Champion, Danyelle Wolf, continues her brief transition to MMA with a second-fight UFC debut. After failing to make the US Olympic Boxing team in 2020, she has since set her sights on MMA. Super raw, Wolf still looked strong on the feet in the DWCS. This feels like a brutal booking, hopefully, I’ll be proven wrong.
Predicted Result: Dumont Submission Round 2
Three-time USA Boxing National Champion, Danyelle Wolf, continues her brief transition to MMA with a second-fight UFC debut. Dumont is a proven UFC-quality fighter, however, whilst Wolf looked incredibly raw on her DWCS appearance. This feels like a brutal booking, hopefully, I’ll be proven wrong, but there doesn’t seem like Dumont will find issues in walking through her green opponent.
Chad Anheliger vs Heili Alateng
Bantamweight (135)
Chad Anheliger (12-5)
As expected, Anheliger was able to ride his chin through early trouble against Jesse Strader before coming on strong later down the line. Time is not on Anheliger’s side, especially considering the meta and quality at Bantamweight. Strader will consistently look to out-pressure, out-volume opponents which may come undone against Alateng’s heavy hands and calm under fire.
Heili Alateng (15-8-2)
The Mongolian Knight hits really, really hard and is more than capable of weathering a storm to land one solid shot. Alateng can be out-worked, Casey Kenney danced circles around the Mongolian on his UFC debut. Anheliger lacks the striking variety and lateral footwork of Kenney, however, and will eventually be slowed by Alateng’s clubbing counters.
Predicted Result: Alateng TKO Round 3
Alateng can be out-worked, Casey Kenney danced circles around the Mongolian on his UFC debut. Anheliger lacks the striking variety and lateral footwork of Kenney, however, and will eventually be slowed by Alateng’s clubbing counters.
Elise Reed vs Melissa Martinez
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Elise Reed (5-2)
Reed is a decently powerful single-pot shotter with a decent level of creativity, yet she falls apart against opponents who are comfortable leading a fight. Given space and timing, Reed can piece together her combinations. In a sloppy division of body grapplers, Reed will rarely find herself given free rein to pick apart opponents.
Melissa Martinez (7-0)
Super Melly is a heavy-pressure fighter who owns the tools to keep Reed’s best weapons locked within her locker. Martinez does have a tendency to disengage after a combination and sit at striking range – an area that Reed’s punches in bunches could exploit.
Predicted Result: Martinez Decision
Super Melly is a heavy-pressure fighter who owns the tools to keep Reed’s best weapons locked within her locker. Martinez does have a tendency to disengage after a combination and sit at striking range – an area that Reed’s punches in bunches could exploit. Still, if Reed isn’t offered time or space, she struggles to string together a consistent offence.
Darian Weeks vs Yohan Lainesse
Welterweight (170)
Darian Weeks (5-2)
Weeks is a fighter that is worth keeping an eye on. The American has power and the ability to rough up people on the inside. Moreover, Weeks has a wrestling base that could be built upon. The main flaw is Weeks’ unnatural defence, as seen against Garry, unable to fluidly intertwine strikes with movement.
Yohan Lainesse (8-1)
It wasn’t quite the UFC debut expected of Lainesse; crushed by Gabe Green in the second round. The Canadian remained true to his first-round threat, unleashing a barrage of aggressive combinations that had Green reeling. There is a surprising wrestling trump card up Lainesse’s pocket, yet expect more of the same punishing inside work on the feet on Saturday.
Predicted Result: Weeks Decision
There is a surprising wrestling trump card up Lainesse’s pocket, yet expect more of the same punishing inside work on the feet on Saturday. Weeks is hardly a defensive savant, there is a genuine possibility that Lainesse kickstarts the card with an early finish. I’m backing the vastly experienced American to match Lainesse on the inside whilst threatening takedowns.
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