UFC Paris Predictions, Odds and Results: Gane vs Tuivasa
Pintsized Background
Bienvenue! The UFC arrives in France for the first time in the company’s history. After a series of political spats, MMA is no longer considered a barbaric past-time for criminals, and the garlic eaters have widely embraced fistic justice.
UFC Paris’ Main Event could magic together their trimmings of a high-end entertaining, yet sloppy, Heavyweight scrap between Tai Tuivasa and Ciryl Gane. That isn’t to overlook the potential coming-of-age fight for Marvin Vettori, with the Italian seeking his first elite scalp in former champion, Robert Whittaker.
UFC Paris’ preliminary card is a little rough around the edges, yet a string of cancellations and rescheduled bouts offer some sort of justification. A featured prelim between Dustin Stoltzfus and Abusupiyan Magomedov could stink the Accor Arena out. Beforehand, an intriguing Middleweight striking match-up awaits. Can the lengthy, technical aficionado, Nassourdine Imavov, deal with the scary explosive power of Joaquin Buckley?
Where/When is UFC Paris taking place:
September 3, 2022. Accor Arena. Paris, France.
What time does UFC Paris start:
🇬🇧 UK: 5pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 12am
What channel is UFC Paris on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
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UFC Paris Picks & Odds
| UFC Paris Fights & Odds | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane (-520) Tai Tuivasa (+410) | Gane | TKO | 4 |
| Robert Whittaker (-210) Marvin Vettori (+180) | Whittaker | Decision | / |
| Alessio Di Chirico (-110) Roman Kopylov (-110) | Kopylov | Decision | / |
| Nasrat Haqparast (-230) John Makdessi (+195) | Haqparast | TKO | 1 |
| William Gomis (-215) Jarno Errens (+185) | Gomis | Decision | / |
| Charles Jourdain (-140) Nathaniel Wood (+120) | Wood | Decision | / |
| Dustin Stoltzfus (+230) Abusupiyan Magomedov (-275) | Magomedov | Decision | / |
| Fares Ziam (+165) Michal Figlak (-195) | Ziam | Decision | / |
| Nassourdine Imavov (-255) Joaquin Buckley (+215) | Imavov | TKO | 3 |
| Benoit Saint-Denis (-285) Gabriel Miranda (+240) | Saint-Denis | Submission | 1 |
| Khalid Taha (-120) Cristain Quiñonez (+100) | Taha | TKO | 2 |
| Ailin Perez (+220) Stephanie Egger (-260) | Egger | Submission | 1 |
UFC Paris: Main Event
Ciryl Gane vs Tai Tuivasa
Heavyweight (265)
Ciryl Gane (10-1)
Close to a year since we last saw Ciryl Gane, following his failed shot at the title, the Heavyweight division is crying out for the classy challenger’s return. Nobody expected Francis N’Gannou to wrestle his way to victory in his first title defence, but it hardly left either fighter on a positive note. The Frenchman managed to avoid N’Gannou’s nuclear power but was sorely exposed on the mat. Far too comfortable working off of his back, the kickboxer idled whilst lacking the tools to get back to his feet.
A wrestling threat from Tuivasa is not on the cards this time around. Instead, the major worry will spring from Tuivasa’s knack for lulling opponents into big strikes. Partly playing possum, partly dreadful defence, the Aussie is happy to eat punishment in order to trade 50/50 whilst backing his natural power. Gane is far too masterful with his use of angles and strike selection to be troubled by Tuivasa on the outside, yet Bom Gamin can linger at striking distance once he has an opponent pressed to the cage.
Tai Tuivasa (15-3)
With each successive Derrick Lewis loss, Tuivasa’s enthralling comeback KO loses a little bit of its sparkle. As not to be a revisionist, however, it would be worth noting that Tuivasa entered as an underdog against the Black Beast – with many (including myself) fearing that Bam Bam lacked the chin to go toe-to-toe with one of the biggest hitters on the roster. Unless an opponent walks onto a naked counter (ala Greg Hardy), Tuivasa still lacks the one-shot power, yet his best work lies in rampant combinations.
Tuivasa enjoyed a spree of success in his early UFC days with clubbing knees and elbows in the clinch. Against Gane, an athletic specimen who is extremely wily in the clinch, it is an area that Tuivasa may fail to avoid. Sure, Tuivasa surprised everyone with the durability he showed against Derrick Lewis, yet Gane has never shown signs of glass cannon as Lewis has. It is highly unlikely that Gane will allow any room for Tuivasa to breathe under constant pressure. When you consider JDS’ brutal body work over Tuivasa, Gane’s kicking threat shines as a clear pathway to victory.
Predicted Result: Gane TKO Round 4
At least this time around for Ciryl Gane, he won’t have to fear a wrestling threat from Tai Tuivasa. Instead, the major worry will spring from Tuivasa’s knack for lulling opponents into big strikes. Greg Hardy walked with a naked chin onto a heavy counter, yet Derrick Lewis was broken down in a toe-to-toe striking affair. Gane is far too masterful with his use of angles and strike selection to be troubled by Tuivasa on the outside, yet Bom Gamin can linger at striking distance once he has an opponent pressed to the cage.
The clinch may be an area that is exploited by Bom Gamin. Tuivasa enjoyed great success in the clinch during his early UFC run, bullying Cyril Asker and Rashad Coulter with knees and elbows. Against Gane, an athletic specimen who is extremely wily in the clinch, it is an area that Tuivasa may fail to avoid. It is also difficult to see Tuivasa effectively cut off the cage against the fleet feet of Gane. On the outside, peppering away with kicks, Tuivasa’s fleshy body provides a clear pathway for victory.
UFC Paris: Co-Main Event
Robert Whittaker vs Marvin Vettori
Middleweight (185)
Robert Whittaker (23-6)
I love Robert Whittaker. The Reaper may well be one of my favourite sportsmen, overall. So it is with a heavy heart that I anticipate this fight to be far closer than expected. Vettori has taken great advances in his striking, offensively and defensively, whilst his relentless wrestling threat remains a nuisance for any opponent. Whittaker’s short, sharp combinations will find far greater success against the boxing-heavy approach of Vettori than the length of Israel Adesanya. Whittaker has the knack of walking onto heavy strikes whilst he head-hunts, a major area of concern considering Vettori’s unbreakable orc chin. Expect a series of trades with Whittaker opening and closing exchanges, yet Vettori sneaking in some clean single-shots in between.
Marvin Vettori (18-4-1)
The Italian Dream is no longer a punching bag. Vettori has added a layer of slips, angled entries and educated combinations to his striking. That isn’t to say Vettori should rely on his new tools, yet it does mean he can hang around with most Middleweight’s – especially considering his granite chin. Vettori has the tenacity and consistency to lay early pressure on Whittaker, yet the Aussie sparkles as a reactive fighter. A major interest is the three-round nature of the fight, with five rounds favouring the exceptional conditioning and natural adaptation in Whittaker’s game. Vettori provides enough of an early puzzle to threaten a split decision W.
Predicted Result: Whittaker Decision
Vettori has added a layer of slips, angled entries and educated combinations to his striking. That isn’t to say Vettori should rely on his new tools, yet it does mean he can hang around with most Middleweight’s – especially considering his granite chin. Of note is the three-round nature of the fight, with five rounds favouring the exceptional conditioning and natural adaptation in Whittaker’s game. Vettori provides enough of an early puzzle to threaten a split decision W. I am still backing The Reaper, yet I am expecting a series of trades with Whittaker opening and closing exchanges, yet Vettori catching the former champion with clean single-shots in between.
UFC Paris: Main Card
Alessio Di Chirico vs Roman Kopylov
Middleweight (185)
Alessio Di Chirico (13-6)
After a string of dull decisions across 2019-2020, Alessio Di Chirico has blossomed into an entertaining, kill-or-be-killed fighter. The Italian starched highlight-reel man, Joaquin Buckley, with a head kick that deserved far more hype than it received. Di Chirico is a decent tactician and attempts to work opponents on to kill shots, yet there is a lack of evidence of Di Chirico leading a fight.
Roman Kopylov (8-2)
A volume striker who thrives as the naturally larger physical specimen in the cage. Now that the athletic gap has been bridged since he arrived at the UFC, Kopylov is far more gun-shy in the face of return damage. Di Chirico isn’t likely to piece apart Kopylov, the Italian rarely dictates the pace of a fight. The Russian can set an early pace with high volume that unsettles Di Chirico, but if Kopylov enters with the same combinations, Di Chirico will eventually lay significant, punishing traps.
Predicted Result: Kopylov Decision
Kopylov excelled on the regional scene as a volume striker who thrives as the naturally larger physical specimen in the cage. Now that the athletic gap has been bridged since he arrived at the UFC, Kopylov is far more gun-shy in the face of return damage. Di Chirico represents a decent tactician and attempts to work opponents on to kill shots, yet the Italian rarely leads a fight. The Russian is best set to lay down a blistering early pace, leaning on high volume, preventing Di Chirico from gaining a foothold in the fight.
Nasrat Haqparast vs John Makdessi
Lightweight (155)
Nasrat Haqparast (13-5)
A solid step-down for Nasrat Haqparast. After suffering two dominant decision losses to Dan Hooker and Bobby Green, Haqparast needed this time out to iron his predictability. There is an athletic edge to Haqparast’s game, yet he was systematically picked apart by Bobby Green due to the Afghan’s tendency to settle into one-note rhythm and combinations. The striking bully may unravel over extended striking layers against a technically superior defensive striker in John Makdessi, yet there is a ‘get-out of jail’ potential with Haqparast’s dramatic speed advantage.
John Makdessi (18-7)
Almost a year and a half out of the octagon since his last victory over Ignacio Bahamondes, the clock is ticking Makdessi. At thirty-seven years old, and entering the octagon cold against a notably faster opponent, don’t be surprised if this is finished brutally in the opening exchanges. Makdessi is a slick defensive operator and could pose the same puzzle as Bobby Green, which Haqparast failed enormously to crack. Age and ring rust are too glaring to avoid, however.
Predicted Result: Haqparast TKO Round 1
Almost a year and a half out of the octagon since his last victory over Ignacio Bahamondes, the clock is ticking Makdessi. At thirty-seven years old, and entering the octagon cold against a notably faster opponent, don’t be surprised if this is finished brutally in the opening exchanges. Makdessi is a slick defensive operator and could pose the same puzzle as Bobby Green, which Haqparast failed enormously to crack. Age and ring rust are too glaring to avoid, however.
William Gomis vs Jarno Errens
Featherweight (145)
William Gomis (10-2)
UFC debutant, William Gomis, is a ferocious striking threat that needs time to mature regarding control over fights. A powerful, exciting kicker, Gomis’ movement will cause Errens major issues. The spinning arsenal may well land Gomis in trouble against higher-end fighters, yet Errens suffers from the same troubles.
Jarno Errens (13-3-1)
Dutch debutant, Jarno Errens, has enjoyed a similarly well-built career on the regionals as Gomis. Errens could be criticised as more erratic than Gomis, perhaps in part to his desire to get close to opponents and work his trips in the clinch. If Errens waits for Gomis to fall into the pocket with a wild combination, the Dutchman will be offered ample opportunities to wrestle, but Gomis has shown solid grappling chops to date.
Predicted Result: Gomis Decision
A powerful, exciting kicker, Gomis’ movement will cause Errens major issues. If Errens waits for Gomis to fall into the pocket with a wild combination, the Dutchman will be offered ample opportunities to wrestle, but Gomis has shown solid grappling chops to date. A well-matched bout between two high-octane prospects that should descend into madness, making it very difficult to predict.
Charles Jourdain vs Nathaniel Wood
Featherweight (145)
Charles Jourdain (13-5-1)
B b b b banger of a fight. Charles Jourdain will have taken great hope from Nathaniel Wood’s last fight against Charles Rosa. The Brit destroyed Rosa in the early proceedings, yet allowed the veteran to find pockets later down the stretch. Jourdain is an immensely dangerous striker, owing to his unorthodox strike selection and furious aggression. Wood’s pressure should keep Jourdain uncomfortable in the opening round, yet there will always be an underlying danger that Jourdain finds the light switch.
Nathaniel Wood (18-5)
The move to Featherweight was necessary for Nathaniel Wood, yet it may well still prove a bridge too far to gap for Wood. Wood may find himself undersized near the upper echelons of Featherweight, especially if he finds himself requiring a wrestling avenue. Jourdain is an excellent, aggressive counter-puncher that could work Wood’s body, but the loss to Andre Fili and draw to Joshua Culibao remain stark in memory as the Canadian failed to work through the gears.
Predicted Result: Wood Decision
The move to Featherweight was necessary for Nathaniel Wood, yet it may well still prove an athletic bridge too far to gap for Wood. Jourdain is an immensely dangerous striker, owing to his unorthodox strike selection and furious aggression. Wood’s pressure should keep Jourdain uncomfortable in the opening round, yet there will always be an underlying danger that Jourdain finds the light switch. Although distant, the loss to Andre Fili and the draw to Joshua Culibao remains stark in memory.
UFC Paris: Preliminary Card
Dustin Stoltzfus vs Abusupiyan Magomedov
Middleweight (185)
Dustin Stoltzfus (14-4)
A bit of everything, Stoltzfus is well-rounded in every area of the fight game. The German is visibly slow, especially on the feet against the elderly Gerald Meerschaert. Stoltzfus won’t be granted the time and freedom to find his offence as he did against the uber-patient Dwight Grant.
Abusupiyan Magomedov (24-4-1)
Debutant, Magomedov, is a confident fighter who will regularly land the first shot against Stoltzfus. Magomedov is slow on the feet for a Middleweight, yet in comparison to Stoltzfus, he is lightning quick. Considering Magomedov’s imposing size, wealth of experience and strong wrestling base, we should witness a debut victory for Abusupiyan.
Predicted Result: Magomedov Decision
Magomedov is slow on the feet for a Middleweight, yet in comparison to Stoltzfus, he is lightning quick. Considering Magomedov’s imposing size, wealth of experience and strong wrestling base, we should witness a debut victory for Abusupiyan. Stoltzfus is well-rounded in all areas of the fight game, however, and should prove a resilient nuisance throughout.
Fares Ziam vs Michal Figlak
Lightweight (155)
Fares Ziam (12-4)
A solid, lengthy kickboxer who can happily plug away behind his functional, disciplined combinations. Figlak leans heavily on his boxing, presenting an interesting dynamic as Ziam can use his long levers to keep Figlak on the outside. There is a strong possibility that Ziam snipes Figlak throughout the three rounds with sniping single shots, preventing Figlak from making his way inside.
Michal Figlak (8-0)
Undefeated Pole, Michal Figlak, may find that he lacks the necessary wrestling game to scrape through awkward bouts. There is a level of power that could punish Ziam on the rare occurrence that Figlak sneaks his way inside the Frenchman’s reach, but it isn’t ‘one-shot’ proven quality. Figlak’s higher volume and tempo could swing the judges, but Ziam feels safer to back with cleaner, less risky work on the outside.
Predicted Result: Ziam Decision
Figlak leans heavily on his boxing and will face an uphill battle working his way inside Ziam’s length. The undefeated Pole carries a level of power that could punish Ziam on the rare occurrence that Figlak sneaks inside, but it isn’t ‘one-shot’ proven quality. Figlak’s higher volume and tempo could swing the judges, but Ziam feels safer to back with cleaner, less risky work on the outside.
Nassourdine Imavov vs Joaquin Buckley
Middleweight (185)
Nassourdine Imavov (11-3)
After a brutal, bloody crucifix beatdown over fallen star boy, Edmen Shahbazyan, Nassourdine Imavov finally returns after a year out of the octagon. The Russian Sniper has tapped into length perfectly in his last two outings, tapping into a source of power that was not seen previously. Greater confidence, excellent shot selection in the pocket and a solid grappler all add to Imavov’s rising stock.
Joaquin Buckley (15-4)
One of the most explosive strikers on the roster, Buckley is a physical beast that will put bums on seats. There are regular technical inconsistencies – of particular note, is his penchant for eating head kicks. Buckley may struggle to pin Imavov on the inside, owing to Buckley’s leaky TDD and Imavov’s shrewd decision-making. Considering Buckley’s flailing gas tank late and predictable striking patterns, Imavov has to be favoured to eventually crack New Mansa.
Predicted Result: Imavov TKO Round 3
One of the most explosive strikers on the roster, Buckley is a physical beast plagued with technical flaws- of particular note, is his penchant for eating head kicks. Buckley may struggle to pin Imavov on the inside, owing to Buckley’s leaky TDD and Imavov’s shrewd decision-making. Considering Buckley’s flailing gas tank late and predictable striking patterns, Imavov has to be favoured to eventually crack New Mansa.
Benoit Saint-Denis vs Gabriel Miranda
Lightweight (155)
Benoit Saint-Denis (9-1)
Mr Durable, Benoit Saint-Denis finds himself in a very winnable match-up. The Frenchman can endure insane punishment in his pursuit of relentless takedowns and speculative submissions. Against Miranda, however, Saint-Denis will find a rare striking advantage over a foe
Gabriel Miranda (16-5)
The Brazilian lacks the physical gifts to match Saint-Denis in any area of the fight. On the feet, Miranda cannot crack Saint-Denis’ chin nor consistently out-strike. There is more of a toss-up on the mat as both men are willing to throw caution to the wind in pursuit of a sub, but the Frenchman is cleaner and far more mentally sound.
Predicted Result: Saint-Denis Submission Round 1
Mr Durable, Benoit Saint-Denis finds himself in a very winnable match-up. On the feet, Miranda cannot crack Saint-Denis’ chin nor consistently out-strike. There is more of a toss-up on the mat as both men are willing to throw caution to the wind in pursuit of a sub, but the Frenchman is cleaner in all areas.
Khalid Taha vs Cristian Quiñonez
Bantamweight (135)
Khalid Taha (13-4)
A big ol’ fridge at Bantamweight, Taha is yet to find his preferred game. There are constant stance switches on the feet, but the movement doesn’t translate to his head – firmly sitting on the centre-line. Against a rangey, accurate striker in Quiñonez, a peppering could be on the cards. Taha is comfortable on the inside as a voluminous pocket puncher, relying on his stellar chin, and could out-tough Quiñonez if locked into an ugly fight up close.
Cristian Quiñonez (16-3)
DWCS winner, Cristian Quiñonez, has all the tools to beat Taha. Unfortunately, Quiñonez likely lacks the sound decision-making to keep the fight on the outside. We are likely to see a battle on the inside, with Taha’s superior durability and comfort in the pocket eventually finding the button.
Predicted Result: Taha TKO Round 2
DWCS winner, Cristian Quiñonez, has all the tools to beat Taha. Quiñonez’s range and accuracy could pepper Taha’s head which sits firmly on the centreline. Unfortunately, Quiñonez likely lacks the sound decision-making to keep the fight on the outside. We are likely to see a battle on the inside, with Taha’s superior durability and comfort in the pocket eventually finding the button.
Ailin Perez vs Stephanie Egger
Women’s Featherweight (145)
Ailin Perez (7-1)
Our final debutant for the UFC Paris card, Ailin Perez is up against the wall. A physical bully, Perez will find herself vastly undersized against Stephanie Egger. The Swiss fighter is an armbar merchant, yet size truly matters at this lowly level. If Egger, for some reason, cannot take Perez down – the Argentinian is a far sharper, explosive striker.
Stephanie Egger (7-3)
Egger’s pressure and physical advantages will prove enough to bowl over Perez. It won’t be pretty, but Egger’s confidence in her chin will see her walk down the undersized Perez and bully the Argentinian debutant. The armbar merchant will seize yet another underwhelming highlight reel.
Predicted Result: Egger Submission Round 1
Egger’s pressure and physical advantages will prove enough to bowl over Perez. It won’t be pretty, but Egger’s confidence in her chin will see her walk down the undersized Perez and bully the Argentinian debutant. The armbar merchant will seize yet another underwhelming highlight reel.
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