UFC Vegas 59 Predictions, Odds and Results: Santos vs Hill
Pintsized Background
Are you prepared for a special UFC Fight Night? UFC Vegas 59 features a TUF finale for the Heavyweights and Women’s Flyweight. If anything, it’s a surprise that TUF has survived for so long – I don’t know of a single person who has watched it.
A Light Heavyweight match-up features at the head of the billing. A couple of years ago, Thiago Santos’ name inspired excitement and quality striking. Recently, hyper-conservative striking offers a limp match-up with one of the hardest hitting 205lbers, Jamahal Hill. At the very least, a bloodbath is all but confirmed in the UFC Vegas 59 co-main event between Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal.
Down on the prelims, Michal Olesiejczuk and Sam Alvey bless us as our featured preliminary. Words cannot describe the universal disgust that Smilin’ Sam continues to have a career with the UFC whilst talent has regularly been unfairly chopped. The pick of the prelims holds an interesting grappling affair between Takashi Sato and former TUF 29 winner, Bryan Battle.
Where/When is UFC Vegas 59 taking place:
August 6, 2022. UFC Apex. Nevada, United States.
What time does UFC Vegas 59 start:
🇬🇧 UK: 12pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 7pm
What channel is UFC Vegas 59 on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
- 🚀 Preview: UFC 277 Predictions: Pena vs Nunes II
- 🥊 PI’s Recommended Fight: Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara-France
Travel down the Pintsized rabbit hole:
- 📊 Statistics: MMA Predictions Results: January 2022
- 📺 YouTube: Pintsized Channel
TIPPING JAR
Pintsized Interests is just a baby finding its first steps in the big, bad world of sports journalism. If you enjoy the content that is regularly uploaded then please consider donating via the link below. Any amount is greatly appreciated, and will go towards ensuring the survival of Pintsized Interests in the long-term.
UFC Vegas 59 Picks & Odds
| UFC Vegas 59 Fights & Odds | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill (-275) Thiago Santos (+230) | Hill | TKO | 1 |
| Geoffrey Neal (+160) Vicente Luque (-190) | Luque | Submission | 3 |
| Brogan Walker (+100) Juliana Miller (-115) | Walker | Decision | / |
| Mohammad Usman (+205) Zac Pauga (-245) | Pauga | Decision | / |
| Augusto Sakai (+215) Sergey Spivak (-255) | Spivak | TKO | 3 |
| Ariane Lipski (-175) Priscila Cachoeira (+150) | Lipski | Decision | / |
| Michal Oleksiejczuk (-600) Sam Alvey (+450) | Oleksiejczuk | Decision | / |
| Erick Gonzalez (+600) Terrance McKinney (-850) | McKinney | TKO | 1 |
| Bryan Battle (-260) Takashi Sato (+220) | Battle | Decision | / |
| Cory McKenna (-225) Miranda Granger (+190) | McKenna | Decision | / |
| Mayra Bueno Silva (+105) Stephanie Egger (-125) | Silva | Decision | / |
UFC Vegas 59: Main Event
Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill
Light Heavyweight (205)
Thiago Santos (22-10)
It has been over three years since Thiago Santos lost a hotly disputed contest with the arguable GOAT, Jon Jones. If it hadn’t been for both knees blowing out mid-fight, Santos had a reasonable chance of breaking the LHW championship stranglehold. Since then, Santos has never truly recovered. There has been a noticeable drop in pace, as well as an unwillingness to push ferocious aggression.
Santos remains a tricky counter-puncher, certainly wily enough to lay traps that a green Hill could walk into. The power hasn’t exactly left either, it is more than Santos’ taste for a lethal finish seems missing. Santos’ leg kicks are tasty, especially considering Hill ate a ton against OSP. Add in a typical Hill wild flurry and there is the chance that a cleaner Santos counter sneaks in.
Jamahal Hill (10-1)
An athletic freak, usually physical gifts are enough for Light Heavyweights to shoot to the upper echelons of the division. Highlight reels over Jimmy Crute and Johnny Walker have helped light a fire behind Hill, but they both represent very winnable fights. Poor decision-making and a stiff upright stance can be punished by the few elite fighters in the division.
Santos has regularly backed himself onto the fence in his most recent contests. With an octagon of space and free reign over the pace of the fight, Hill is set to unleash blistering combinations over the Brazilian. Hill certainly fights with his chin up, but if Santos is tucked behind his high guard on the fence, it won’t matter for much.
Predicted Result: Hill TKO Round 1
Santos remains a tricky counter-puncher, certainly wily enough to lay traps that a green Hill could walk into. The power hasn’t exactly left either, it is more than Santos’ taste for a lethal finish seems missing. Having lost a spring to his step after blowing both his knees against Jon Jones, it has led to a dull, conservative approach from the Brazilian.
Red flags remain over Hill. Despite being an athletic freak, most of his highlight reel wins have come across fighters tailor-made to lose wild 50/50 exchanges. Hill tends to plod forward upright with his chin up, yet Santos has regularly backed himself onto the fence in his most recent contests. With free reign over position and pace, Hill’s offence is too potent to overlook.
Result: Hill def. Santos // TKO (punches and elbows) Round 4 2:31
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ❌
UFC Vegas 59: Co-Main Event
Vicente Luque vs Geoff Neal
Welterweight (170)
Vicente Luque (21-8-1)
I could never be mad at my left-hook boi, but I was deeply saddened by the Brazilian allowing Belal Muhammad’s ego to grow out of control. Luque is a far more varied striker than Geoff Neal. Add in the fact that Neal’s power is unlikely to leave a mark on Luque’s granite chin and it seems like a foregone conclusion. Still, Neal is a pressure fighter who can string together extended combinations that will entice the judges. Luque is slick enough to avoid Neal’s heavy left high kicks and will face almost no pressure to the body from the American.
Geoff Neal (14-4)
Neal returned to classic form in a rock-em sock-em with Santiago Ponzinibbio. Handz of Steel is unlikely to fail a chin chest against Luque’s sharp power, but he will have to accept that he will eat punishment in the pursuit of offence. Neal suffered across 2020-21 against opponents who limited the output of his heavy hands. Luque will instead oblige Neal to trade on the inside, leaving a pathway to victory against a superior technician.
Predicted Result: Luque Submission Round 3
Luque is a far more varied striker than Geoff Neal. Add in the fact that Neal’s power is unlikely to leave a mark on Luque’s granite chin and it seems like a foregone conclusion. Still, Neal is a pressure fighter who can string together extended combinations that will entice the judges. If it weren’t for Neal’s tendency to head-hunt, instead opting to target often Luque’s static body, this could be a razor-close affair.
Result: Neal def. Luque // KO (punches) Round 3 2:01
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ✔️
UFC Vegas 59: Main Card
Zac Pauga vs Mohammad Usman
Heavyweight (265)
Ultimate Fighter Heavyweight Championship
Zac Pauga (5-0)
Although Pauga owns the far less impressive physique, the Ripper has a sparkling unbeaten record in the amateurs and professional ranks. Sparkling was of course, tongue-in-cheek, yet a scalp over Markus Perez is like gold dust for TUF prospects. Pauga owns a solid jab, and, for what is rare at Heavyweight, is possible of hooking off the jab.
Mohammed Usman (7-2)
The man is an absolute beast, his body proportions are similar to putting max on the create-a-character sliders. Usman looks hopelessly static at times, lacking fluidity in offensive or defensive movement. The major issue stems from Usman ploughing forward on a straight line, especially as he tends to duck. It is crying out for an uppercut or an intercepting knee.
Predicted Result: Pauga Decision
Despite the impressive physique of Usman, he lacks the urgency or initiative to gameplan a heavy-clinching affair against Pauga. The Ripper is a surprisingly technical boxer – one of the few Heavyweights who can hook off the jab. At this level, even Usman’s straightforward plodding could force Pauga against the cage, but I’m backing the better technical fighter.
Result: Usman def. Pauga // KO (punches) Round 2 0:36
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Juliana Miller vs Brogan Walker
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Ultimate Fighter Women’s Flyweight Championship
Juliana Miller (2-1)
Miller is a mess in the octagon. Not to say that isn’t exciting, nor a terrible gameplan, at 125lbs most fights can be dictated through willpower and sheer vibes alone. Aggressive on the feet and the mat, it’s often a coinflip whether Miller gets the upper hand in any area of the fight.
Brogan Walker (7-2)
A far more consummate striker and proven plus athlete, Walker has a tasty bladed stance and will land clean work on a very hittable Miller. The question will be whether Walker can handle the relentless pressure from Miller – it’s time for a deep dive into Brogan Walker’s ability to control position in the cage.
Predicted Result: Walker Decision
A far more consummate striker and proven plus athlete, Walker won’t struggle to land clean work on a very hittable Miller. Miller is a ball of aggression that will chase the fight in any area, yet it’s often a coinflip whether Miller gets the upper hand. Again, at this lowly level of MMA, Miller’s relentless pressure may just be enough to bridge the gap.
Result: Miller def. Walker // TKO (punches and elbows) Round 3 3:57
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Augusto Sakai vs Sergey Spivak
Heavyweight (265)
Augusto Sakai (15-4-1)
Who remembers when Augusto Sakai was receiving solid promotional packages from the UFC? Awkward victories over Blagoy Ivanov and Andrei Arlovski were warning signs enough that the Brazilian had a style incapable of climbing. Sakai’s durability has been waning since a five-round brutalisation at the hands of Alistair Overeem. When you operate with a volume-pocket punching style, you cannot afford to have your chin checked three fights in a row.
Sergey Spivak (14-3)
Mr Wrestling Gatekeeper, Spivak is a firm favourite of mine. The Polar Bear unveiled newfound strength against Greg Hardy, finding no trouble at all in taking one of the thickest men in the division. Sakai lacks the defensive wrestling to consistently stop Spivak’s chain-wrestling. Add in noticeable adjustments by Spivak to use his length and strike at length, I’m backing my boy.
Predicted Result: Spivak TKO Round 3
Sakai’s durability has been waning since a five-round brutalisation at the hands of Alistair Overeem. When you operate with a volume-pocket punching style, you cannot afford to have your chin checked three fights in a row. Sakai lacks the defensive wrestling to consistently stop Spivak’s chain-wrestling. Add in noticeable adjustments by Spivak to use his length and strike at length, I’m backing my boy.
Result: Spivak def. Sakai // TKO (punches) Round 2 3:42
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ❌
Ariane Lipski vs Priscila Cachoeira
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Ariane Lipski (14-7)
Is Ariane Lipski finally on the path to a career rebuild? Lipski has matured since her humbling to Joanne Wood. Against Bohm, Lipski was far more confident in setting a methodical pace and denying Bohm the attempt to go strike-for-strike. The same gameplan has to be utilised against Cachoeira, a heavy-handed yet technically devoid striker.
Priscila Cachoeira (11-4)
Cachoeira should have been cut after the pathetic eye-gouge attempt. Zombie Girl does live up to her name as a walking punch bag, but it’s also sad that this division rewards meathead brawling. Cachoeira is a far more consistent fighter, so it’s never off the cards that Lipski suffers another career brainfart.
Predicted Result: Lipski Decision
Lipski has matured since her humbling to Joanne Wood. Against Bohm, Lipski was far more confident in setting a methodical pace and denying Bohm the attempt to go strike-for-strike. The same gameplan has to be utilised against Cachoeira, a heavy-handed yet technically devoid striker. The only worry is Lipski’s career inconsistency – Cachoeira, for all her flaws, is one of the most consistent fighters on the books.
Result: 🚫 FIGHT CANCELLED (Lipski illness) 🚫
UFC Vegas 59: Preliminary Card
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Sam Alvey
Middleweight (185)
Michal Oleksiejczuk (16-5)
The Oleksiejczuk two-fight streak was snapped in a dull affair against Dustin Jacoby. The Pole is a technical joke on the outside but can punish opponents in the pocket. Unfortunately for Oleksiejczuk, he lacks the necessary cage-cutting to keep opponents against the cage. With an athletically shot Alvey, Oleksiejczuk could walk on to a shot that creates endless memes, but the Pole easily has a path to beating Alvey by peppering the body.
Sam Alvey (33-17-1)
A friendly reminder – Sam Alvey has not won a fight since 2018. Granted, many forget that Alvey probably should have received the nod against Da Un Jung. Over his long losing streak, Alvey remains a tricky fighter to pressure due to his powerful left hand, solid TDD and a canny knack for keeping opponents somewhat quiet on the outside.
Predicted Result: Oleksiejczuk Decision
Over his long losing streak, Alvey remains a tricky fighter to pressure due to his powerful left hand, solid TDD and a canny knack for keeping opponents somewhat quiet on the outside. Oleksiejczuk is hardly blessed with technical talent, but his attention to the body is a solid game plan for toppling Smilin’ Sam.
Result: Oleksiejczuk def. Alvey // TKO (punches) Round 1 1:56
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Terrance McKinney vs Erick Gonzalez
Lightweight (155)
Terrance McKinney (12-4)
How much of an effect will McKinney’s crushing loss to Drew Dober have on the American’s career? McKinney has made his name with rapid-fire knockouts. T-Wrecks can time opponents from the opening bell, transferring his natural power with blistering speed. A full offence style that emphasises finishes, however, will naturally lead to losses against more experienced, durable opponents up the ladder. Is it time for a style change? Is it even possible?
Erick Gonzalez (14-6)
To be fair to Gonzalez, he ate a fair bit of punishment against Miller. Based on his most recent performance, however, Gonzalez will crumble under a couple of minutes if he willingly sits at striking distance again. Gonzalez is scrappy enough that he is a live dog in the later rounds against a flailing McKinney, yet it is difficult to see McKinney not ending it very early.
Predicted Result: McKinney TKO Round 1
T-Wrecks can time opponents from the opening bell which spells danger for Gonzalez’s propensity to sit at striking distance. Miller’s hands were enough to break Gonzalez by the second round; McKinney’s full-blooded kicking game is a far more potent threat. Gonzalez is scrappy enough that he is a live dog in the later rounds against a flailing McKinney, yet it is difficult to see McKinney not ending it very early.
Result: McKinney def. Gonzalez // Submission (rear-naked choke) Round 1 2:17
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ✔️
Takashi Sato vs Bryan Battle
Welterweight (170)
Takashi Sato (16-5)
The Japanese power-puncher is incapable of leading a fight, often leaving him suffering on the mat. Battle is a green striker that will allow Sato to showcase an array of his clean counters. Dreadful TDD and far too comfortable biding time in the clinch – Sato will continue to walk himself into L’s until he finds the maturity needed to round his game.
Bryan Battle (7-1)
Battle is a plucky craftsman that can pick holes in an opponent’s defence through probing combinations. Pooh Bear tends to stick to opponents, forgoing defence, and searches for a way to get to an opponent’s neck. Such a style will prove an issue against opponents carrying one-shot power, yet Battle’s chin remains decisively granite until proven otherwise.
Predicted Result: Battle Decision
Battle is a plucky craftsman that can pick holes in an opponent’s defence through probing combinations. Sato is a clean enough counter-puncher to rough up Battle, but he lacks the power to prevent Battle from settling into his preferred fight. Battle could be close to hitting an athletic wall, however, as he climbs the rankings.
Result: Battle def. Sato // KO (head kick) Round 1 0:44
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Cory McKenna vs Miranda Granger
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Cory McKenna (6-2)
After being comfortably handled by Elise Reed at UFC London, the youthful prospect swiftly returns to the octagon. The Welshwoman struggled to dip into her tight boxing, often limiting herself to single strikes. Whether it was a blip in confidence or an inability to deal with Reed’s pressure, McKenna appeared gun-shy. A learning experience most likely.
Miranda Granger (7-2)
Granger represents a large opponent, yet the American struggles to utilise her size to her advantage. Granger has spent two years out of the octagon since her loss to Ashley Yoder – a damning career loss that required time away to recuperate. Granger has a list of submission victories in the amateurs, yet has failed to show her grappling prowess in the premium MMA promotion.
Predicted Result: McKenna Decision
Granger represents a large opponent, yet the American struggles to utilise her size to her advantage. Although Granger has a list of submission victories in the amateurs, she will face a sizeable disadvantage on the mat against McKenna. The Welshwoman appeared gun-shy against Elise Reed in her last outing, yet it had the hallmarks of a learning bump in the career of a young prospect.
Result: McKenna def. Granger // Submission (Von Flue choke) Round 2 1:03
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Mayra Bueno Silva vs Stephanie Egger
Women’s Bantamweight (135)
Mayra Bueno Silva (8-2-1)
A maturing, powerful puncher with an arsenal of submissions – Mayra Bueno Silva represents one of the most entertaining Bantamweight prospects. Even with Silva’s poor decision-making, the Brazilian’s strong scrambles will ensure she doesn’t meet a fate similar to Jessica-Rose Clark.
Stephanie Egger (7-2)
A one-trick pony, it’s hard to big up a style that relies upon opponents walking into Egger’s preferred game. Egger has shown greater lethality on the mat over her past two fights yet will struggle to put away a similarly sized opponent.
Predicted Result: Silva Decision
Too much of Egger’s game relies on opponents walking themselves onto the mat. Even with Silva’s poor decision-making, the Brazilian’s strong scrambles will ensure she doesn’t meet a fate similar to Jessica-Rose Clark.
Result: Silva def. Egger // Submission (armbar) Round 1 1:17
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Prediction Accuracy
UFC Vegas 59
Winner: 7/10
Method: 2/10
Round: 2/10
2022 MMA Season
Winner: 211/325
Method: 154/325
Round: 133/325
MMA Overall
Winner: 707/1117
Method: 476/1117
Round: 457/1117
Takeaway comments: A rare Fight Night card of 100% finishes!
TIPPING JAR
Pintsized Interests is just a baby finding its first steps in the big, bad world of sports journalism. If you enjoy the content that is regularly uploaded then please consider donating via the link below. Any amount is greatly appreciated, and will go towards ensuring the survival of Pintsized Interests in the long-term.