UFC Vegas 52 Predictions, Odds and Results: Lemos vs Andrade
Pintsized Background
Hear me out. This is actually far better than last week’s card. Don’t just disregard a Women’s Strawweight main event. Both of these ladies bring a level of violence that is rarely seen at 115lbs and will hopefully put the spark more life into the premier Women’s division. There are also some of Pintsized’s secret favourites hidden away in the undercard.
Where/When is UFC Vegas 52 taking place:
April 23, 2022. UFC Apex. Nevada, United States.
What time does UFC Vegas 52 start:
🇬🇧 UK: 11pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 6pm
What channel is UFC Vegas 52 on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
🚀 Preview: UFC Vegas 51 Predictions, Odds and Results: Luque vs Muhammad 2
🥊 PI’s Recommended Fight: Drakkar Klose vs Brandon Jenkins
Travel down the Pintsized rabbit hole:
📊 Statistics: MMA Predictions Results: March 2022
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UFC Vegas 52: Main Event
Amanda Lemos vs Jessica Andrade
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Amanda Lemos (11-1-1)
You’d be forgiven for thinking that Amanda Lemos has appeared out of thin air in the past couple of years. After a painful UFC debut loss to Leslie Smith in 2017, Lemos went MIA for two years. At the turn of 2019, the Brazilian has compiled a phenomenal five-fight streak with highlight-reel finishes over Livinha Souza and Montserrat Ruiz. Most felt that Angela Hill was a step too far, but Lemos showcased savvy defensive grappling alongside her brutish striking.
Andrade, despite major attempts to move her head off the centre line, will continue to move forward. Although the former champ isn’t likely to walk into another Weili Zhang-esque chin check, Lemos could certainly take some of the steam out of Andrade’s pressure. Lemos must target the body. Earning brief periods of respite in Andrade’s relentless pressure has to be the goal, because if Lemos is starved of space against the cage then her striking threat falls off a cliff.
A lack of movement may well be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. As seen against Hill, Lemos is happy to trade shots, but this is mostly down to her inability to stick and move. When facing an opponent with a legendary chin, in a division notorious for low striking finish rates, Lemos will have to unveil a new layer to her striking or prove her power is truly legitimate.
Jessica Andrade (22-9)
Weak gym aside, Andrade showed clear attempts to gameplan the rematch with Rose Namajunas and incorporate newfound head movement. Unfortunately, that head movement was some of the most ‘rock-em sock-em’, Anthony Joshua level of movement. At a certain point, Andrade’s powerful overhands and slams have to be accepted as a kit more than capable of hanging amongst the elite.
I was worried that Andrade would see a decline, similar to Marlon Moraes, after she was cracked open on the mat by Valentina Shevchenko. It takes a huge spirit and inner belief to pick up the pieces, as a former champion, to drop the weight and start over again. Granted, Andrade’s comeback was a first-round starching of Cynthia Calvillo at Flyweight, but the writing was always on the wall for Andrade at 125lbs.
Unbelievably, Andrade’s striking defence amounts to 53% across her UFC career. I struggle to think of another fighter at such a high level who eats shots at such volume. Not that it matters when Andrade’s pressure breaks opponents mentally (Calvillo) and physically (Namajunas). It was only a few years back that Andrade dropped a ferocious wrestling display against Tecia Torres, a return to such game planning against Lemos would see Bate Estaca cruise this affair.
Predicted Result: Andrade TKO Round 4
A lack of movement may well be the straw that breaks the camel’s (Lemos’) back. As seen against Hill, Lemos is happy to trade shots, but this is mostly down to her inability to stick and move. When facing an opponent with a legendary chin, in a division notorious for low striking finish rates, Lemos will have to unveil a new layer to her striking or prove her power is truly legitimate.
At a certain point, Andrade’s powerful overhands and slams have to be accepted as a kit more than capable of hanging amongst the elite. It was only a few years back that Andrade dropped a ferocious wrestling display against Tecia Torres, a return to such game-planning against Lemos would see Bate Estaca cruise this affair.
Result: Andrade def. Lemos // Submission (standing arm-triangle choke) Round 1 3:13
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
UFC Vegas 52: Co-Main Event
Clay Guida vs Claudio Puelles
Lightweight (155)
Clay Guida (37-21)
Hell yes, this is a really fun fight. Clay Guida continues to thrive in his twilight, submitting the legendary BJJ ace, Leonardo Santos, last time out. If not for a couple of dubious scorecards against Mark Madsen, Guida would be on a three-fight streak which includes a shut-out against Michael Johnson. Not bad for a forty-year-old, fifty-eight fight veteran. Guida still sticks to his balls-to-the-walls, relentless grappling, even if his gas tank has been showing chinks since 2016. If Jordan Leavitt can stick Puelles on his arse in the first round, Guida has to be favoured at replicating with far more success.
Claudio Puelles (11-2)
Not many will know Puelles, even fewer will care, but Pintsized is a fan of Claudio Puelles. Frankly, I’m not sure why. The Peruvian has a fun submission arsenal and a patient range striking that benefits more so from his toughness than technical supremacy. In fairness though, Puelles’ kicks are lethal. At times I wish Puelles could possibly build his boxing beyond 1-2s, yet it seems like a lack of confidence is what plagues Puelles. As unthreatening Guida’s volume and bowling ball pressure are, Puelles will struggle with the pace that the veteran sets. Although I’m praying that Puelles holds his own in an entertaining grappling affair, The Carpenter has carved a career out of man-handling opponents of Puelles’ calibre.
Predicted Result: Guida Decision
If not for debatable scorecards against Mark Madsen, Guida would be on a three-fight streak which includes a shut-out against Michael Johnson. Although I’m praying that Puelles holds his own in an entertaining grappling affair, The Carpenter has carved a career out of man-handling opponents of Puelles’ calibre. Even when considering how unthreatening Guida’s volume and bowling ball pressure are, Puelles lacks confidence on the feet and will struggle with the pace that the veteran sets.
Result: Puelles def. Guida // Submission (kneebar) Round 1 3:01
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
UFC Vegas 52: Main Card
Alexandr Romanov vs Chase Sherman
Heavyweight (265)
Alexandr Romanov (15-0)
I’m a sick, dirty man. God knows why, but for some damned reason, this fight screams ‘Rough n Rowdy’ wholesome entertainment. Romanov is set in stone in his game, running headfirst into takedowns and looking to overpower opponents into submission. Subbing Jared Vanderaa and Roque Martinez doesn’t mean much, but Romanov’s technical split decision over Juan Espino highlights the Moldovan’s skill. Stylistically, Romanov is almost guaranteed to put Sherman on his arse. As seen against the bloated Jake Collier, Sherman will eventually place himself in a dangerous position and receive a mercy submission.
Chase Sherman (15-9)
Although I am glad to see the return of Chase Sherman, The Vanilla Gorilla desperately needed a gimme match to rebuild his confidence. Unsure whether to adopt a high-volume pressure game or a patient counter-punching approach, Sherman often twists himself between the two and gasses himself in the process. Lacking the footwork to keep the distance between himself and Romanov, Sherman is on a one-way trip to the mat with a return to the feet not on the script.
Predicted Result: Romanov Decision
Romanov is set in stone in his game, running headfirst into takedowns and looking to overpower opponents into submission. Stylistically, Romanov is almost guaranteed to put Sherman on his arse. As seen against the bloated Jake Collier, Sherman will eventually place himself in a dangerous position and receive a mercy submission. Sherman’s non-existent footwork will allow Romanov to close the distance at will.
Result: 🚫 FIGHT CANCELLED (Sherman medical issue) 🚫
Maycee Barber vs Montana De La Rosa
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Maycee Barber (9-2)
Was there a time when I ever truly believed that Maycee Barber could be a prospect? Even after the first-round humbling of my fave, Gillian Robertson, the flaws in Barber’s game were clear to see. A pintsized weight bully who wants to lead a fight but fails in almost every technical area of the game. At twenty-three years old, perhaps I am far too harsh on ‘The Future’, but her attitude after the Modafferi and Maverick losses (yes, I stand by Maverick clearly winning) stunk out the joint. Until Barber shows any sort of ability to gauge the range, she will consistently be broken down by the savvier operators. Against low-volume, slower-paced fighters like De La Rosa, however, Barber’s volume and activity tend to earn the judges’ eye.
Montana De La Rosa (12-6-1)
De La Rosa is a decent, well-rounded technician at Flyweight, but you’d struggle to find a single fan of the Texan. Too often, De La Rosa physically folds under any sort of sustained pressure. Mentally, De La Rosa oozes confidence, but unfortunately, the Texan cannot go through the gears to match opponents. De La Rosa could exploit Barber’s weak bottom game, but The Future’s power in the scrambles will likely pose too much of a hurdle.
Predicted Result: Barber Decision
Until Barber shows any sort of ability to gauge the range, she will consistently be broken down by the savvier operators. Against low-volume, slower-paced fighters like De La Rosa, however, Barber’s volume and activity tend to earn the judges’ eye. De La Rosa could exploit Barber’s weak bottom game, but The Future’s power in the scrambles will likely pose too much of a hurdle. At this level, physicality counts for a lot.
Result: Barber def. De la Rosa // Decision (UD – 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
Mudaerji Su vs Manel Kape
Flyweight (125)
Mudaerji Su (15-4)
Flyweight nerds rejoice, this is a banger. After a rough debut loss to Louis Smolka, Su has shown flashes of elite-level MMA in his three-fight streak. Su combines heavy hands with an inherent knowledge of his range. Gordon was crumpled within the first minute of the affair as Su immediately read the range. Whether Su’s pressure is educated enough to pose questions for Kape’s lethally accurate counters is the major question. Even though I feel it isn’t close to causing Kape troubles, the Portuguese fighter has already shown a knack for losing affairs on the cards from a troubled output.
Manel Kape (17-6)
Forget Bukayo Saka, Manel Kape is the real Starboy. The Portuguese fighter was written off after an 0-2 start to his UFC career, yet most ignore the fact that Kape faced two of the strongest names in the division. The issue that has plagued Kape’s game has been his inconsistency. Technically, Kape is a freak technician and athlete, who has failed largely due to an inability to settle into the pace demanded by the UFC’s Flyweight division. The incorporation of counters in bunches, rather than trying to find the one ‘money shot’, is ripe to poach Su as he lunges in.///
Predicted Result: Kape TKO Round 3
Forget Bukayo Saka, Manel Kape is the real Starboy. Technically, Kape is a freak technician and athlete, who has failed largely due to an inability to settle into the pace demanded by the UFC’s Flyweight division. The incorporation of counters in bunches, rather than trying to find the one ‘money shot’, is ripe to poach Su as he lunges in. Even with Su’s uneducated pressure, there is still a niggling suspicion that the Portuguese fighter once again shows his knack for losing affairs on the cards from a troubled output.
Result: 🚫 FIGHT CANCELLED (Kape personal reasons) 🚫
Charles Jourdain vs Lando Vannata
Featherweight (145)
Charles Jourdain (12-4-1)
Violence is on the menu, boys. Jourdain has a variety of fantastic weapons in his locker, yet he can never refuse a war. Although the Canadian is nowhere near as fluid on the feet in regards to artistically beautiful combinations as Vannata, Jourdain thrives in the nuclear single strikes. Despite Jourdain’s slick counters, the Canadian’s head movement falls apart under extended combinations – Vanatta’s money game.
Lando Vannata (12-5-2)
Vannata has long been a ‘what could have been’ fighter. Athletically strong, incredibly creative and slick on the feet, Groovy can be deemed a mad genius. With so much variety in his striking, Vannata regularly sits at range during periods of inactivity while he waits to craft his highlight reel combination. With such a fabulous chin, I have a growing belief that Vannata will be given enough time to just about edge Jourdain in activity on the feet. Additionally, Vannata could dig into his underrated wrestling, but the thirty-year-old is a crowd-pleaser at heart.
Predicted Result: Vannata Decision
Regardless of which way this one swings, Jourdan vs Vanatta is a FOTN banger if they stay on the feet. With so much variety in his striking, Vannata regularly sits at range during periods of inactivity while he waits to craft his highlight reel combination. Although the Canadian cannot compare to the artistically beautiful combinations, Jourdain thrives in surprising with nuclear single strikes. Despite Jourdain’s sharp counters, the Canadian’s head movement falls apart under extended combinations – Vanatta’s money game.
Result: Jourdain def. Vannata // Submission (guillotine choke) Round 1 2:32
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
UFC Vegas 52: Preliminary Card
Preston Parsons vs Evan Elder
Welterweight (170)
Preston Parsons (9-3)
A throwaway fight for even the most hardcore of fight fans. Parsons is a solid grappling and submission threat, however, he would have benefitted from a couple more years at a regional level. The bullying, pressure approach works well against records like ‘8-16′ and ’10-7′, yet more incremental tests were needed before jumping into Daniel Rodriguez. Against a fighter like Elder, who is ridiculously gun-shy on the feet, Parsons’ aggression should be richly rewarded.
Evan Elder (7-0)
Elder’s lack of combination punching will likely be his downfall. Granted, Elder is working at Sanford MMA and will surely see his striking develop leaps and bounds, but at the minute he hasn’t shown the ability to chain counters. The technical cleanliness is on show for all to see, yet Elder’s sniping striking hasn’t been tested against a durable, volume puncher.
Predicted Result: Parsons Decision
Elder’s lack of combination punching will likely be his downfall. Granted, Elder is working at Sanford MMA and will surely see his striking develop leaps and bounds, but at the minute he hasn’t shown the ability to chain counters. Simplicity isn’t necessarily a negative, but it feels as though Elder’s issues are concentrated in an inherent unwillingness to take risks. Parson’s aggression should be richly rewarded on the scorecards.
Result: Parsons def. Elder // Decision (UD – 30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
Jordan Wright vs Marc-Andre Barriault
Catchweight (190)
Jordan Wright (12-2)
The Beverly Hills Ninja sucks outside of the first round, it’s just undeniable truth. Against consistent, durable opponents, Wright makes too many mistakes on the feet to survive. The Californian has an okay chin, but his total lack of defensive sensibilities and discomfort on the back-foot will forever hamper Wright.
Marc-Andre Barriault (13-5)
Was Barriault’s recent sixteen-second crumbling to Chidi Njokuani the sign of a worrying trend? Notoriously durable fighters have seen their chin fall off the face of a cliff after one bad knockout. Pre-Njokuani, Barriault had to be heavily favoured to out-grit Wright and tire Wright rapidly against the cage in a rough grappling affair. I’m backing Barriault’s chin failures last time out as only a temporary blip, even with the late notice call-up.
Predicted Result: Barriault TKO Round 2
Against consistent, durable opponents, Wright makes too many mistakes on the feet to survive. The Californian has an okay chin, but his total lack of defensive sensibilities and discomfort on the back-foot will forever hamper Wright. I’m backing Barriault’s chin failures last time out as only a temporary blip, even with the late notice call-up. Barriault will rough Wright against the cage and break the limited willpower of the Californian.
Result: Barriault def. Wright // Submission (guillotine choke) Round 1 2:36
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Dwight Grant vs Sergey Khandozhko
Welterweight (170)
Dwight Grant (11-4)
Aside from the ‘Body Snatcher’ nickname, I’ve fallen out of love with every aspect of Grant’s game. The once famed one-shot power hasn’t been on show for three years (aside from a brief scare of Daniel Rodriguez). Without any conscious decision to lead the fight, he never creates opportunities to set up his power shots. Despite a potentially rich vein of wrestling that Grant can dig into, it is yet another frustration to see the Body Snatcher search for the mat.
Sergey Khandozhko (27-6-1)
Mr Experienced, Sergey Khandozhko has hit a rough spot in his career. After a restless pre-UFC volume of fights, Khandozhko has been hampered by the pandemic, illness and injury. Add in a dominant loss to Rustam Khabilov in his last outing back in 2019, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the Russian is destined for obscurity. Khandozhko, however, is a wily operator in the cage and makes the most of his limited athletic ability. Aside from ring rust seeing Khandozhko walking onto Grant’s power, I’m edging towards the Russian earning the scorecards in a timid, uneventful affair.
Predicted Result: Khandozhko Decision
Khandozhko is a wily operator in the cage and makes the most of his limited athletic ability. Aside from ring rust seeing Khandozhko walking onto Grant’s power, I’m edging towards the Russian earning the scorecards in a timid, uneventful affair. Grant’s total inability to lead a fight will continue to bite him on the arse, wasting his riches of power.
Result: Khandozhko def. Grant // TKO (punches) Round 2 4:15
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Tyson Pedro vs Ike Villanueva
Light Heavyweight (205)
Tyson Pedro (7-3)
It’s a small miracle that Tyson Pedro remains on the UFC roster. As long as Volkanovski, Whittaker and Adesanya exist near the top of their divisions, the UFC will need as many ANZACs in their roster to pad out overseas cards. A terrific start to his career back in 2016 saw him collect the scalps of Khalil Rountree and Paul Craig in less than ten minutes total. Since then, Pedro has sat on the sidelines for four years after suffering back-to-back humiliations against OSP and Shogun Rua. Defensive issues have long plagued Pedro, but his plus power made up for it in the regionals.
Ike Villanueva (18-13)
Villanueva represents another fighting for survival in the UFC, albeit, a more deserving athlete. An anywhere, any time type of fighter, Villanueva may well continue plying his trade in the UFC if not for the cheap paycheque and guaranteed highlight reel. The once durable volume puncher is far craftier on the feet than his flabby physique suggests, yet his chin has no more miles left on the clock.
Predicted Result: Pedro Submission Round 2
Pedro has sat on the sidelines for four years after suffering back-to-back humiliations against OSP and Shogun Rua. Defensive issues have long plagued Pedro, but his plus power made up for it in the regionals. Thankfully for the Aussie, Villanueva’s chin has no more miles left on the clock. Although the veteran is craftier on the feet than his flabby physique suggests, he has kept his place on the UFC roster based on availability.
Result: Pedro def. Villanueva // KO (leg kick and punches) Round 1 4:55
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Aoriqileng vs Cameron Else
Bantamweight (135)
Aoriqileng (20-11)
Aoriqileng, if you had forgotten, is the Mongolian Murderer who lost a close decision to Cody Durden before being verbally abused by his opponent. The Mongolian is an athletic specimen with a ridiculous chin that supports his hectic, risk-happy striking. Unfortunately, such is the weakness of the Chinese regional scene, Aoriqileng has failed to develop into a UFC calibre fighter over his 30+ fight career. I mean, the man lost to the 4-9-1, Wu Xialong, back in 2018.
Cameron Else (10-5)
Thirty-four-year-old regional journeyman, Cameron Else, is the lamb being led to slaughter. Kyler Phillips is an immensely difficult fighter to face in your UFC debut, yet Else’s athletic pitfalls were clear to see. The kill or be killed style that Else lives by is in large part down to his knowledge that he cannot physically match opponents in clean affairs.
Predicted Result: Aoriqileng TKO Round 2
Kyler Phillips is an immensely difficult fighter to face in your UFC debut, yet Else’s athletic pitfalls were clear to see. The kill or be killed style that Else lives by is in large part down to his knowledge that he cannot physically match opponents in clean affairs. Aoriqileng is hardly UFC calibre, but he is an athletic specimen with a ridiculous chin that supports his hectic, risk-happy striking. Both men’s records are padded to the highest heavens, but at least Aoriqileng has shown some competency in the UFC.
Result: Aoriqileng def. Else // TKO (punches) Round 1 2:48
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ❌
Marcin Prachnio vs Philipe Lins
Light Heavyweight (205)
Marcin Prachnio (15-5)
Eh, this should be a pretty fun fight to watch. I was fully aboard the ‘Save Prachnio’ train and letting him step down a level to regain his confidence. Three first-round KO losses, with one delivered by Sam Alvey, will do that. Since 2021, however, the Pole has looked like a different animal. Dipping into the power that made his name pre-UFC, Prachnio has managed to utilise his kicks more efficiently. That’s great news considering his paper chin.
Philipe Lins (14-5)
Philipe Lins has had a torrid time since moving over from the PFl. Eating two losses to Andrei Arlovski and Tanner Boser in 2020, Lins spent the entirety of 2021 on the sidelines after a long string of injuries and withdrawals. Moving down to Light Heavyweight indicates Lins has found a fresh desire for the sport during his downtime. While it would be nice to see Lins’ wrestling on show in the UFC, I am unsure whether the Brazilian can mentally recover at thirty-six years old.
Predicted Result: Prachnio TKO Round 3
After suffering the humiliation of a Sam Alvey KO loss, Prachnio has looked like a different animal since 2021. Dipping into the power that made his name pre-UFC, Prachnio has managed to utilise his kicks more efficiently. While Lins’ decision to move down to Light Heavyweight indicates should allow him to showcase his wrestling, I am unsure whether the Brazilian can rebuild his career at thirty-six years old.
Result: Lins def. Prachnio // Decision (UD – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Dean Barry vs Mike Jackson
Welterweight (170)
Dean Barry (4-1)
Dean Barry is a half-decent kickboxer getting a call-up far too early in his MMA career. Four years ago or not, losing to Anthony Taylor is a terrible crime that can never be atoned for. The Sniper isn’t CM Punk, however, and will highlight the difference between mixed martial artist and photojournalist on Saturday night. Or not, who cares, it’s a pointless fight.
Mike Jackson (0-1)
The UFC has had a vendetta against Mike Jackson after he clowned CM Punk for three rounds. Granted, it was a humiliating experience for Punk and the organisation, but many fighters have played with their food before. Jackson can box a little and handle himself on the mat, but the part-timer would have to pull out a next level of wrestling to make this competitive.
Predicted Result: Barry TKO Round 1
Dean Barry is a half-decent kickboxer getting a call-up far too early in his MMA career. The Sniper isn’t CM Punk, however, and will highlight the difference between mixed martial artist and photojournalist on Saturday night. Jackson can box a little and handle himself on the mat, but the part-timer would have to pull out a next level of wrestling to make this competitive.
Result: Jackson def. Barry // DQ (eye gouging) Round 1 3:52
Prediction Accuracy
UFC Vegas 52
Winner: 7/10
Method: 3/10
Round: 2/10
2022 MMA Season
Winner: 111/156
Method: 76/156
Round: 71/156
MMA Overall
Winner: 607/948
Method: 439/948
Round: 396/948
Takeaway comments: A true JUST BLEED kind of card!
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