UFC Vegas 48 Predictions, Odds and Results: Walker vs Hill
Pintsized Background
Nope. Despite every intention to find some sort of enjoyment in this card, I have to conclude that UFC Vegas 48 Predictions represents the weakest card of the year. If Johnny Walker and Jamahal Hill fail to provide fireworks, it could be a five-round stinker that caps off a woeful card. Only Joaquin Buckley and Abdul Razak Alhassan jumps off the page as a banger, but I doubt the action will last too long in their striking affair.
Where/When is UFC Vegas 48 taking place:
February 19, 2022. UFC Apex. Nevada, United States.
What time does UFC Vegas 48 start:
🇬🇧 UK: 9pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 4pm
What channel is UFC Vegas 48 on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized content from the week before:
Preview: UFC 271 Predictions, Odds and Results: Adesanya vs Whittaker 2
Statistics: MMA Predictions Results: January 2022
PI’s Recommended Fight: Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson.
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UFC Vegas 48 Predictions: Main Event
Johnny Walker vs Jamahal Hill
Light Heavyweight (205)
Johnny Walker (18-6)
Just how much will the move to SBG Ireland have changed Johnny Walker? Of course, the Thiago Santos fight was a dreary five-round affair with Walker throwing more feints than heat, but Walker has clocked in another half a year worth of time and training under John Kavanagh. Game planning has never been the strongest suit of SBG, but there are decent striking and grappling coaches for Walker to tap into. There is a possibility that Walker will be able to piece together a more patient outside the striking game – but Jamahal Hill’s aggression is more likely to bring out the natural dog in Walker.
An explosive, athletic freak, it is a coin flip whether Walker’s ‘kill or be killed’ style benefits him. Usually, with a 6’5″ frame, Walker thrives in the chaos of a spinning, looping war. If it weren’t for a flakey chin, Walker would have found himself in a title shot already. Can Walker deal with Hill’s regular 1-2s? Absolutely. Can Walker deal react with patient counters on the outside? I highly doubt it. Walker’s powerful clinch striking could surprise Hill too – the American does have a tendency to switch off and take ridiculous risks.
Jamahal Hill (9-1)
After a humbling at the hands of Paul Craig, Jamahal Hill returned in fashion with a stonking right-hand knockout over Jimmy Crute. It seems comical to suggest any fighter is less disciplined than Johnny Walker, but Hill runs headfirst into danger when he sniffs a finish. Granted, Hill’s power often bails him out when trading 50/50 leather, but Walker is a far more explosive threat than Jimmy Crute.
Hill stance-switches rarely stem from an educated decision to open angles, rather, it looks like an occasional twitch. While Hill does regularly switch stances outside of striking range, Walker can clear distance insanely fast and could punish Hill when he switches off. Hill’s durability shouldn’t be overlooked, however. While Ryan Spann was able to rattle Walker’s noggin, Hill looked willing to fight on even after having his arm snapped against Paul Craig.
Predicted Result: Walker TKO Round 2
My gut instinct really believes this will be a five-round stinker. Whether it is Walker’s training with SBG or Hill’s lack of educated pressure, the scars of Santos/Walker loom large over this main event. Opting to listen to my heart, I am hoping for a stand and bang classic between two of the sloppier operators in the division.
Eventually, Hill’s errant stance-switches will be punished. While Hill does regularly switch stances outside of striking range, Walker can clear distance insanely fast and could be caught cold. That is an achievable goal for Walker, even with his recently adopted patient counter-punching style. I imagine early pressure from Hill will revert Walker to his natural chaos on the inside, where greater experience and clinch striking will pip Hill. Hill’s superior durability and Walker’s paper chin add interesting dynamics, but in a mess of a fight, it’s easier to back the 6’5″ athletic freak.
Result: Hill def. Walker // KO (punch) Round 1 2:55
Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ❌
UFC Vegas 48 Predictions: Co-Main Event
Kyle Daukaus vs Jamie Pickett
Catchweight (195)
Kyle Daukaus (10-2)
A wonderfully well-rounded fighter, Daukaus is technically clean if a little shabby with his decision making. Daukaus can handle himself on the feet, clearly winning the first round against Kevin Holland before an unfortunate headbutt ended their contest. Against Pickett, a fighter devoid of confidence and far too willing to back himself into a corner, Daukaus will find a free avenue to grind Pickett down against the cage. Both Brendan Allen and Phil Hawes succeeded with superior physicality, and while Pickett is an athletic specimen, Daukaus’ consistency will keep Pickett from ever settling into a comfortable rhythm.
Jamie Pickett (13-6)
It should be noted that I like Jamie Pickett. After being drafted in to fall over to Tafon Nchukwi, Pickett has proven himself a durable boxer-wrestler. Despite his insane physical gifts, the problems with Pickett are all mental. Last time out against Joseph Holmes, a limited regional fighter, Pickett was unable to dictate the proceedings despite representing the far more experienced, technically sharper operator. If Pickett, as expected, hands over the initiative to Daukaus, Kyle will happily pluck away on the feet and mat at a comfortable pace.
Predicted Result: Daukaus Decision
Against Pickett, a fighter devoid of confidence and far too willing to back himself into a corner, Daukaus will find a free avenue to grind Pickett down against the cage. Both Brendan Allen and Phil Hawes succeeded with superior physicality, and while Pickett is an athletic specimen, Daukaus’ consistency will keep Pickett from ever settling into a comfortable rhythm. There hasn’t been any evidence of Pickett digging deep to turn the tide in his four UFC fights – I wouldn’t expect it magically appearing against Daukaus.
Result: Daukaus def. Pickett // Submission (D’Arce choke) Round 1 4:59
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
UFC Vegas 48 Predictions: Main Card
Parker Porter vs Alan Baudot
Heavyweight (265)
Parker Porter (12-6)
At thirty-six years old, Parker Porter is an ‘okay’ fighter to have around at the lower levels. Somewhat durable, somewhat technical – it is Parker Porter’s pace that sets him apart from the Heavyweight fodder. Baudot is a strong first-round threat, and while Porter’s chin has regularly been tested in the UFC, the American has shown innate survivability. Outside of a crazy spinning back fist or elbow catching Porter unaware, Baudot has absolutely nothing to get himself off the mat – especially after he gasses following the opening round.
Alan Baudot (8-2)
Baudot surprised Tom Aspinall on the feet for the first minute of their bout, catching the English prospect with intercepting elbows and back fists. Unfortunately, the Frenchman isn’t a natural Heavyweight and can be easily bowled over to the mat. Porter isn’t the heaviest hitter, but he will set an uncomfortable pace that will drain Baudot’s questionable gas tank. Outside of Baudot finding a first-round finish, Porter will have free reign on the feet or mat for the remainder of the fight.
Predicted Result: Porter TKO Round 2
Baudot surprised Tom Aspinall on the feet for the first minute of their bout, catching the English prospect with intercepting elbows and back fists. Porter’s chin has been regularly tested in the UFC, but the American has shown decent survivability. Porter isn’t the heaviest hitter, but he will set an uncomfortable pace that will drain Baudot’s questionable gas tank. Porter via sweaty wrestling before brutal ground and pound.
Result: Porter def. Baudot // Decision (UD – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Jim Miller vs Nikolas Motta
Lightweight (155)
Jim Miller (33-16)
Eh. Jim Miller may be coming off a rare striking knockout over Erick Gonzalez, but the American worryingly showed signs of decline against the limited Californian. It’s to be expected of a thirty-eight-year-old veteran, but Father Time will catch up one day. Miller remains a potent first-round threat for incomplete prospects, capable of finding a back and securing a submission in record time.
Nikolas Motta (12-3)
A heavy-handed first-round threat, Nikolas Motta is a powerful striker who could very easily walk into a Jim Miller takedown. Motta has a respectable scalp of a third-round TKO over Joe Solecki, but there are flaws in the game that a veteran can exploit. Critically, Motta throws head kicks far too close to opponents, offering an opportunity for Miller to jump straight on the hips. Motta is defensively aware enough to survive Miller’s hands in the first round before increasing the pace later on, but his vulnerability on the mat is too difficult to overlook.
Predicted Result: Miller Submission Round 1
Can Motta survive all of Miller’s savvy tricks in the opening round? There is no doubt that Motta’s heavy hands and sharp boxing combinations will piece apart a tiring Miller outside of the first round. Miller has a large bag of tricks to coax opponents to the mat, however, and Motta’s vulnerability on the mat is too difficult to overlook. If Motta survives, however, a brutal KO could be waiting for the veteran.
Result: Miller def. Motta // TKO (punches) Round 2 1:58
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Joaquin Buckley vs Abdul Razak Alhassan
Middleweight (185)
Joaquin Buckley (13-4)
Hell yes. The real main event on the card. After being starched by Alessio Di Chirico and having his hype train derailed, Buckley is so desperate to reignite media attention that he has dragged the D.U.S.T self-defence meme dude into his corner. No amount of meme energy can fill the holes in Buckley’s leaky defence and flakey chin. An explosive, expansive front-foot fighter, when Buckley is allowed to dictate the pace of a fight, he will eventually find a finish. Kevin Holland punished Buckley’s lack of cage cutting by check hooking throughout the night, Alhassan lacks the lateral movement to reenact such a gameplan. Granted, Di Chirico just bopped Buckley in the head with a kick so Alhassan always has that going for him.
Abdul Razak Alhassan (11-4)
Alhassan looked all but finished before his stunning seventeen-second finish over Alessio Di Chirico. Three L’s in a row, with a particularly damning first-round KO to Khaos Williams, Alhassan looked devoid of confidence against Jacob Malkoun. Buckley could very easily walk onto an Alhassan bomb that shuts off the lights early. More likely, however, Buckley smartly grinds Alhassan against the cage in the first round before exposing Alhassan’s faulty gas tank. If Malkoun can wrestle his way to a decision against Alhassan, so can Buckley.
Predicted Result: Buckley TKO Round 2
Alhassan looked all but finished before his stunning seventeen-second finish over Alessio Di Chirico. Three L’s in a row, with a particularly damning first-round KO to Khaos Williams, Alhassan looked devoid of confidence against Jacob Malkoun. Buckley could very easily walk onto an Alhassan bomb that shuts off the lights early. More likely, however, Buckley smartly grinds Alhassan against the cage in the first round before exposing Alhassan’s faulty gas tank. If Malkoun can wrestle his way to a decision against Alhassan, so can Buckley.
Result: Buckley def. Alhassan // Decision (split – 28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
UFC Vegas 48 Predictions: Preliminary Card
Gabriel Benitez vs David Onama
Featherweight (145)
Gabriel Benitez (22-9)
I love me some Gabriel Benitez. Brutal leg and body kicks combine with powerful clinch striking. Age and a long career do seem to be creeping up on Benitez who looked far more vulnerable against Billy Quarantillo than ever before. Onama won’t have faced such a threatening kicker before, but his superior boxing should prevent Benitez from gaining the necessary space to unleash his kicks. If Mason Jones couldn’t get Onama out of the cage on his debut, Gabriel Benitez will struggle to find the finish – even with his power carrying deep into fights.
David Onama (8-1)
Ugandan native, David Onama, surprised many in his defeat to Mason Jones. The Welshman is widely regarded as one of the brightest talents at Lightweight yet Onama readily accepted the striking gauntlet that Jones laid down. Takedown defence and an inability to get back to his feet are areas that need rapid improvement, yet Onama’s striking on the feet is wonderfully crisp. The left hook in particular is a powerful shot that may well build a highlight reel for the twenty-seven-year-old.
Predicted Result: Onama Decision
Age and a long career do seem to be creeping up on Benitez who looked far more vulnerable against Billy Quarantillo than ever before. The brutal leg and body kicks remain, yet Onama’s crisp boxing will deny Benitez the space to unleash his kicks. Takedown defence and an inability to get back to his feet are areas that need rapid improvement, but Onama’s crisp left hook will rapidly build a highlight reel for the twenty-seven-year-old.
Result: Onama def. Benitez // KO (punches) Round 1 4:24
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Jessica-Rose Clark vs Stephanie Egger
Women’s Bantamweight (135)
Jessica-Rose Clark (11-6)
Every simp will leave their man caves to support Jessica Rose-Clark in her ugly fights at the bottom of Bantamweight’s barrel. Egger is one of the kindest match-ups for Rose-Clark, indicating the UFC’s desire to cash in on one of the bigger social media stars in a dull division. Strong in the clinch, Rose-Clark excels at short shots on the inside. Not that it will matter, Egger is ludicrously slow and limited on the outside, Rose-Clark should be able to easily out-box Egger. As long as Rose-Clark doesn’t fight in the pocket and risk Egger nailing a takedown, Jessy Jess should keep the hype train rolling.
Stephanie Egger (6-2)
Stephanie Egger is a gritty, durable brickhouse who will walk opponents down and search for a variety of judo throws – but she is zombie-like in her speed. There is no nuance to Egger’s game, it is as simple as walking forward and finding some form of limb to latch on to. On the mat, Egger has shown a decent aptitude for controlling opponents, but her submission game lacks fluidity. Unless Rose-Clark experiences a mental fart and walks into a takedown, Egger will be eating jabs for fifteen minutes.
Predicted Result: Rose-Clark Decision
Egger is ludicrously slow and limited on the outside, Rose-Clark should be able to easily out-box Egger. As long as Rose-Clark opts to stick and move, refusing to fight in the pocket, Jessy Jess can pepper Egger with jabs for fifteen minutes. Rose-Clark has shown poor decision making before, however, and if Egger finds top position then the Swiss fighter is unlikely to be shifted off.
Result: Egger def. Rose-Clark // Submission (armbar) Round 1 3:44
Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Chas Skelly vs Mark Striegl
Featherweight (145)
Chas Skelly (18-3)
In his first fight in three years, Chas Skelly has suffered from a litany of injuries after four attempts to return to the cage. An unorthodox striker who pops off the occasional wild strike, Skelly’s main game plan is to turn a fight into a scrambling mess from where he can search for one of many submissions. Durable and a deep gas tank, Skelly may be a broken mess after so many injuries, but more likely is he returns with a classic grappling performance.
Mark Striegl (18-3)
Poor Mark Striegl experienced a stinker of a debut when he was put to sleep in under a minute by Said Nurmagomedov. Striegl is a strong wrestler, but it will be difficult for Mugen to control Skelly’s frenetic grappling. On the feet, Striegl is strangely static and overreaches into his shots – indicating a lack of confidence. Striegl’s overextended chin is primed for Skelly to hit one of his weird front kicks, but the finish will come on the ground for either man.
Predicted Result: Skelly Submission Round 3
Skelly returns after a litany of injuries have forced the veteran to sit on the sidelines for three years. Durable and a deep gas tank, Skelly may be a broken mess after so many injuries, but more likely is he returns with a classic grappling performance. Striegl’s striking in his debut was particularly worrying, strangely static and devoid of confidence – his overextended chin is primed for Skelly to hit one of his janky front kicks.
Result: Skelly def. Striegl // TKO (knee and punches) Round 2 2:01
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Diana Belbita vs Gloria de Paula
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Diana Belbita (14-6)
One of the worst decision-makers in the division, Diana Belbita has a decent shot at picking up her second UFC W. Belbita is best known as the fighter who voluntarily placed herself in Liana Jojua’s guard and offered up the armbar. Against passive fighters, such as Hannah Goldy, Belbita’s aggression on the feet sets an uncomfortable pace and claim the scorecards.
Gloria de Paula (5-4)
Gloria de Paula isn’t going to be taking this to the mat anytime soon, instead, the Brazilian prefers clinch warfare. It is only occasional that de Paula uses his length well on the outside. It’s a shame as de Paula’s jab is actually pretty tasty. Instead, the Brazilian’s knees and elbows in the clinch are the money makers.
Predicted Result: Belbita Decision
A toss-up between two limited fighters with extremely questionable fight IQs. Against passive fighters, such as Hannah Goldy, Belbita’s aggression on the feet sets an uncomfortable pace and claim the scorecards. If de Paula was able to more consistently use her length on the outside, she’d be a solid fighter, but largely her game plan descends into landing in the clinch.
Result: de Paula def. Belbita // Decision (UD – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
Jesse Strader vs Chad Anheliger
Bantamweight (135)
Jesse Strader (5-2)
Losing to Montel Jackson in your debut isn’t really indicative of how far you can go – Jackson is a top prospect. Strader is a high volume, aggressive striker who is happy to trade bombs on the feet. While the approach does rack up highlight reels on the regional scene, it isn’t a style for longevity in the UFC unless there is very favourable match-making.
Chad Anheliger (11-5)
Chad Anheliger is a thoroughly durable fighter who tends to come on strong later in the fight. Granted, Anheliger is an experienced fighter who has regularly shown a knack for adapting to what an opponent throws at him, but at thirty-five years old, you’d expect a more complete package. Strader has the power to starch Anheliger early, but most likely, the Canadian overcomes a ropey opening to drag Strader into deep waters.
Predicted Result: Anheliger TKO Round 3
Strader is a high volume, aggressive striker who is happy to trade bombs on the feet. Chad Anheliger is a thoroughly durable fighter who tends to come on strong later in the fight. Simply put, Strader early or Anheliger late. The Canadian is the far better-polished product, but at this level of MMA, an early Strader bomb is a realistic possibility.
Result: Anheliger def. Strader // TKO (punches) Round 3 3:33
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
Jonathan Pearce vs Christian Rodriguez
Featherweight (145)
Jonathan Pearce (11-4)
Jonathan Pearce has been slowly building himself a respectable streak. Two finishes on the mat against decent competition (Omar Morales and Kai Kamaka III), Pearce has a style that will allow him to climb. Freakishly durable and capable of inexhaustible chain-wrestling, it will take a very heavy-handed puncher or submission threat to punish Pearce.
Christain Rodriguez (7-0)
Junior Cortez was able to grind out Christian Rodriguez for long periods of time during his DWCS appearance. As the far larger and natural Featherweight, Pearce will be able to out-muscle Rodriguez from the get-go. Rodriguez does possess clean hands, and a powerful sniping right straight, but it won’t be enough to stop Pearce from walking him down.
Predicted Result: Pearce Submission Round 3
Junior Cortez was able to grind out Christian Rodriguez for long periods of time during his DWCS appearance. As the far larger and natural Featherweight, Pearce will be able to out-muscle Rodriguez from the get-go. Even with Rodriguez’s crisp right straight, Pearce’s durability will allow him to walk down Rodriguez.
Result: Pearce def. Rodriguez // Decision (UD – 29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌
Mario Bautista vs Jay Perrin
Bantamweight (135)
Mario Bautista (8-2)
Perhaps best known for his armbar loss to Cory Sandhagen, Mario Bautista is an energetic single-shot striker. There isn’t much in the way of feints or educated pressure, but Bautista has a sharp head kick that keeps opponents wary on the outside. Bautista is vulnerable to being held against the cage, an area that Perrin excels in, but the Arizonan will be able to keep himself standing long enough to hurt Perrin.
Jay Perrin (10-4)
Jay Perrin isn’t the most exciting to watch. A very limited striker, Perrin only has a path to victory through wrestling. Bautista’s TDD is fairly solid, but Perrin can drain the clock and control Bautista against the cage. Most likely, however, Perrin fails to read one of Bautista’s telegraphed bombs. A very low-quality fight for all involved.
Predicted Result: Bautista Decision
Bautista is vulnerable to being held against the cage, an area that Perrin excels in, but the Arizonan will be able to keep himself standing long enough to hurt Perrin. A toss-up between Perrin draining the clock by controlling Bautista on the fence or Perrin’s shocking striking defence seeing him eat the occasional bomb that Bautista throws.
Result: Bautista def. Perrin // Decision (UD – 30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️
Prediction Accuracy
UFC Vegas 48
Winner: 9/12
Method: 4/12
Round: 3/12
2022 MMA Season
Winner: 44/58
Method: 29/58
Round: 28/58
MMA Overall
Winner: 540/850
Method: 392/850
Round: 353/850
Takeaway comments: John Kavanagh is a charlatan.
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