A fortnight on from Islam Makhachev‘s one-shot knockout of Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 294, the UFC hosts its next fight card in Sao Paulo, Brazil with an intriguing Heavyweight headliner. Jailton Almeida will enjoy home crowd support on Saturday night when he meets fan-favourite Derrick Lewis in a crossroads battle. Lewis, a late replacement for Curtis Blaydes, was almost ironically pulled from the fight after being arrested last week for speeding in his red Lamborghini at 136mph in a 50mph zone.
UFC Sao Paulo’s Prelims are, as you may guessed, jampacked with a host of Brazilian stalwarts looking to entertain a partisan crowd. Our featured preliminary sees an all-Brazil affair when Elves Brener and Kaynan Kruschewsky clash at a 165lb catchweight. Brener will be keen to pick up his third win in the promotion, while fellow countryman Kruschewsky will seek to extend his four-fight finish streak with an emphatic UFC debut at the Ginasio do Ibirapuera arena on Saturday.
Pintsized’s pick of the prelims involves the return of eight-year UFC veteran Elizeu Zaleski. The 36-year-old’s career peaked with a first-round knockout over current Middleweight champion Sean Strickland, yet there is still much to enjoy when watching the dynamic striking of ‘Capoeira’. In the Brazilian’s path stands Rinat Fakhretdinov, fresh off a shocking 1-minute submission victory over former top-10 competitor Kevin Lee, and looking to make Zaleski his eighteenth straight victim.
Elves Brener vs Kaynan Kruschewsky
The odds leading up to the Elves Brener and Guram Kutateladze fight may have favoured the Georgian striker, but Brener seemed to have missed the memo. The Brazilian showcased his impressive mat skills in the first round, keeping the Georgian Viking on the canvas for over two minutes and depleting his knockout power.
Despite blood streaming into his eye from the second round onwards, Brener’s durability shone through as he maintained an intense pace. By keeping the pressure on, Kutateladze was forced to counter or move, leaving him vulnerable to Brener’s body kicks. In the third round, with just two minutes left, Kutateladze wilted under Brener’s volume.
Repeating such a game plan against Kaynan Krushchewsky could well serve Brener similar success. Not only is Kruschewsky a rigid up-right boxer, but he will also enter Saturday with a clear speed disadvantage. The 32-year-old is heavily reliant on his clubbing power, throwing regular straight shots to keep opponents on the back foot. Although the UFC debutant is a threat on the ground, he may struggle to secure a hold on Brener.
Brener vs Krushchewsky Prediction: Brener TKO Round 1
Elizeu Zaleski vs Rinat Fakhretdinov
With each passing victory for Benoit Saint-Denis, Elizeu Zaleski’s dominant decision win over the Frenchman in 2021 serves to underline his skillset. Despite operating late into his career, the 36-year-old remains a wily veteran capable of upsetting prospects. Just ask Abubakar Nurmagomedov.
Ahead of facing Rinat Fakhretdinov’s intense wrestling approach, Zaleski overcame a similar challenge in his last fight against Nurmagomedov. The Brazilian patiently worked his way off the cage throughout the fight and delivered eye-catching shots during the brief stand-up exchanges. It may not have been glamorous, but it demonstrated his maturity as he opened up on his feet just enough to sway the judges.
One difference on Saturday is Fakhretdinov’s superior physicality compared to Nurmagomedov. The Russian struggled to assert his wrestling dominance in his UFC debut against Andreas Michailidis but found his form in subsequent fights against Bryan Battle and Kevin Lee in successive fights. Moreover, Fakhretdinov displayed his power that dominated the regional scene, knocking Lee down with a powerful right straight before submitting him with a brutal guillotine choke.
Zaleski vs Fakhretdinov Prediction: Fakhretdinov Decision
Daniel Marcos vs Victor Hugo
Undefeated Peruvian Daniel Marcos passed the Bantamweight litmus test when he narrowly defeated Davey Grant on the scorecards. The 30-year-old has yet to taste defeat in amateur or professional MMA, although the quality of his opposition before entering the UFC in 2022 was questionable at best.
Admittedly, Marcos’ ceiling remains limited, so far relying on his athleticism rather than any significant technical prowess. He solely engages on the outside in explosive bursts, and while it can frustrate opponents, it rarely secures decisive rounds. Worse yet, his habit of throwing naked leg kicks will eventually prove costly.
Whether UFC debutante Victor Hugo is the man to expose Marcos is up for debate. Despite his nickname ‘Striker’, Hugo is a relentless submission threat, exhibited by his mean kneebar on the Dana White Contender Series. Despite giving up his back in the opening minute, Hugo managed to outmuscle his opponent against the cage and eventually dominated the round from the top. He also utilises ground and pound as a means to set up submissions.
Marcos vs Hugo Prediction: Hugo Submission Round 2
Vitor Petrino vs Modestas Bukauskas
Victor Petrino has quietly built a sneakily strong highlight reel in the shadows of the UFC undercards. The 26-year-old from Minas Gerais, Brazil cuts a monstrous figure in the octagon, using his immense physical presence to bully opponents against the cage. While his low hands and reactive guard can be targetted, Petrino’s wrestling threat tends to prevent opponents from engaging in extended firefights.
Although volume isn’t central to Modestas Bukauskas‘ game, he will prove a physical match for Petrino. The Baltic Gladiator has enjoyed an undefeated 2-0 return to the UFC in 2023, picking up comfortable decision wins over Tyson Pedro and Zac Pauga. The switch hitter is an interesting striker who can create traps for counters if given time on the feet. His knack for slow starts is a concern against Petrino’s power, but Bukauskas’ lateral movement may stifle the Brazilian’s rudimentary forward aggression.
Petrino vs Bukauskas Prediction: Petrino Decision
Angela Hill vs Denise Gomes
While Angela Hill has secured two wins in her last three fights, they were against a level of competition well below what ‘Overkill’ is used to facing. Hill’s relentless volume and TDD deficiencies often leave her fights on a knife-edge on the scorecards. Particularly concerning was Hill’s performance last time out, absorbing 104 headshots against Mackenzie Dern’s boxercise striking.
These durability issues could be exploited by Brazilian power puncher Denise Gomes. The 23-year-old lacks the polish to best Hill on the outside, yet her pure one-shot power could overcome any technical differences. An early career of knocking out tomato cans on the Brazilian regional scene meant little until her 20-second knockout over Yazmin Jauregui, legitimising Gomes’ power.
Hill vs Gomes Prediction: Gomes Decision
Montserrat Conejo Ruiz vs Eduarda Moura
As time passes, Montserrat Ruiz‘s shock debut victory over Cheyanne Vlismas continues to look like a fluke for a regional-calibre fighter. Ruiz’s head and arm throw was enough to conquer Vlismas, yet she has yet to face another Strawweight with such a fatal flaw. The Mexican is undersized at 115 lbs and will struggle to impose her smothering wrestling upon most fighters on the roster.
Not that Ruiz should fancy taking undefeated Brazilian Eduarda Moura to the mat. The submission specialist excels in timing takedowns and maintaining control from above. In her DWCS debut, she patiently worked her way to mount before snatching Janaina Silva’s neck in a rear naked choke.
Ruiz vs Mouria Prediction: Moura Submission Round 1
Kaue Fernandes vs Marc Diakiese
Nerves will be sky-high for Kaue Fernandes as he opens UFC Sao Paulo in his debut fight against dangerous veteran Marc Diakiese. Fernandes operates out of a long, bladed stance and looks to draw opponents onto his dangerous head kicks. The Brazilian also possess a grappling get-out clause when his single-shot striking fails to stick.
Unfortunately for Fernandes, he lacks the weapons to surprise Diakiese. The ‘Bonecrusher’ may be sitting on a two-loss streak, but he is a fantastically well-rounded fighter who is more than capable of keeping Fernandes pinned to the mat for fifteen minutes. While the 30-year-old is difficult to watch at times, he remains an immensely underrated talent.
Fernandes vs Diakiese Prediction: Diakiese TKO Round 3
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