The UFC makes a triumphant return to Sao Paulo, Brazil, marking its ninth appearance in this vibrant city. With the Main Card loaded with a whole lot of body mass, fans should buckle in for some good old fashioned juggernaut action. Headlining UFC Sao Paulo event is a top-five Heavyweight showdown between Derrick Lewis and Jailton Almeida. While Almeida will be fuelled by a passionate home crowd, ‘The Black Beast’ is no stranger to defying the odds with his notorious one-shot power.
Amidst the captivating matchups, the Bonfim brothers take the spotlight. Gabriel Bonfim, set to feature in the co-main event against Nicolas Dalby, is on a mission to extend his flawless UFC career record of three finishes. Meanwhile, Ismael was expected to kick off the Main Card against the seasoned Lightweight stalwart Vinc Pichel. That was until Ismael missed weight by over four pounds and didn’t attempt to return to the scales.
Pintsized’s Main Card pick involves an intriguing striking battle between Caio Borralho and Abus Magomedov. Borralho boasts a perfect 4-0 record in the UFC, but he will be taking a significant step-up in competition on Saturday night. Magomedov was humbled last time out against Middleweight champion Sean Strickland, but the Dagestani brawler has demonstrated his quality in the PFL with a series of highlight reel finishes.
Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis
Ever since his move to the Heavyweight division last year, Jailton Almeida has been a force to be reckoned with, tearing through the lower echelons of the weight class at breakneck speed. At 32 years old, he may be considered a latecomer to the MMA scene, commencing his career in 2012 and taking a four-year sabbatical.
While Almeida displayed exquisite grappling skills at Light Heavyweight, many questioned his ability to take down physically superior opponents at 265lbs. Those doubts were swiftly dispelled when he dominated perennial top-10 Heavyweight, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, earlier this year. Almeida wasted no time in bringing the kickboxing champion to the mat, relentlessly pursuing a submission, and ultimately sealing the deal with a first-round rear naked choke.
Derrick Lewis may now be more of a meme than a menace in the Heavyweight division, but he still possesses his trademark one-shot power. ‘The Black Beasts’ career was built around durability, however, and has worryingly shown recent signs of wear and tear after a 38 fight career. Lewis’s vulnerability to being taken down has been a recurring issue, evidenced by his career 52% takedown defence. What set Lewis apart during his early rise to the top was his uncanny ability to find his way back to his feet. Unfortunately for the 38-year-old, he will be in for the same ragdolling on Saturday as he suffered against Serghei Spivac, a far lesser athlete than Almeida.
Almeida vs Lewis Prediction: Almeida Submission Round 1
Gabriel Bonfim vs Nicolas Dalby
Gabriel Bonfim, the former LFA Welterweight champion, has not been gifted an easy ride since joining the UFC in 2022. Wins over Mounir Lazzez and Trevin Giles may not capture the casual audience’s attention, but both opponents are seasoned and well-rounded fighters who require a strategic approach to overcome. ‘Marretinha’ passed these tests with flying colours, securing consecutive guillotine choke submissions in the first round. The Brazilian uses pressure on the feet to back opponents on to the cage, from where Bonfim can adeptly clinch and transition to their back.
If Bonfim manages to submit Nicolas Dalby in the first round, he could stake a claim as one of the hottest prospects in the Welterweight division. The ‘Danish Dynamite’ has never been officially submitted in his 27-fight career, with Jesse Ronson’s rear-naked choke overturned due to positive steroid tests. While the 38-year-old struggles to maintain the relentless pace of his prime, his durability and ring savvy help him navigate challenging moments. Unfortunately for Dalby, he lacks the power to keep Bonfim from walking him down and is likely to succumb later on.
Bonfim vs Dalby Prediction: Bonfim Submission Round 1
Rodrigo Nascimento vs Don’Tale Mayes
This rematch has all the trimmings of a bottom-of-the-barrel Heavyweight brawl, with an extra kick of history. Rodrigo Nascimento previously defeated Don’Tale Mayes in 2020, securing a second-round rear-naked choke submission. Mayes struggled to handle Nascimento’s front-foot aggression from the opening bell, finding no space to strike with his long levers.
Although Mayes has shown the ability to dictate the pace and range more effectively in recent fights, his grappling skills remain a weak point. If the American ends up on his back again against Nascimento, he lacks the tools to safely find his way back to his feet. Anticipate a repeat of their previous encounter, with Nascimento’s striking volume once again setting up a takedown and eventual submission.
Nascimento vs Mayes Prediction: Nascimento Submission Round 3
Caio Borralho vs Abus Magomedov
Brazilian Middleweight Caio Borralho has faced a string of formidable opponents since entering the UFC. Decision victories against Armen Petrosyan and Makhmud Muradov were sandwiched between wins over Gadzhi Omargadzhiev and Michal Oleksiejczuk. Similar to Bonfim’s journey, Borralho’s record lacks star name power, but his fight tape reveals his quality to adapt to a variety of threats..
Earning a Performance of the Night bonus last time out against Oleksiejczuk, Borralho avoided slugging with the granite-chinned Pole and instead exploited his weaknesses on the ground. However, the Brazilian cannot afford to start so cold on the feet against Abus Magomedov, and must particularly avoid covering into a defensive shell when facing extended combinations.
Questions loom regarding Magomedov’s longevity in the UFC, given his prime was spent in the PFL and regional promotions. His rapid 20-second UFC debut win over Dustin Stoltzfus and subsequent TKO loss to Sean Strickland has left several unanswered questions. Although a quick eye poke on Strickland within the opening 30 seconds may have contributed to Magomedov’s success in the first round, the Dagestani impressed with regular body kicks and Southpaw jab-hooks combinations.
Borralho vs Magomedov Prediction: Borralho Decision
Rodolfo Vieira vs Armen Petrosyan
ADCC World Champion Rodolfo Vieira has endured a rocky transition to MMA. While his grappling prowess shone with submissions against Dustin Stoltzfus and Cody Brundage, his stiff striking remains a work in progress. There is enough pop in his hands to prevent opponents from blindly walking him down, however, as seen in his losses to Chris Curtis and Anthony Hernandez, he cannot survive on the feet when his wrestling fails him.
These shortcomings could prove fatal against Armen Petrosyan‘s fluid kickboxing. Although Petrosyan was initially tipped to rocket through the Middleweight rankings after a close win over Gregory Rodrigues, a subsequent decision loss to Caio Borralho dampened the hype surrounding the 33-year-old. It hasn’t helped that Petrosyan’s knockout power hsa been missing since his viral head-kick knockout on the Dana White Contender Series in 2021. If the Armenian can stay on his feet against Vieira, we may be in for another highlight-reel finish.
Vieira vs Petrosyan Prediction: Petrosyan TKO Round 1
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