UFC London Predictions: Blaydes vs Aspinall

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UFC London Predictions, Odds and Results: Blaydes vs Aspinall

Pintsized Background

Just four months after the UFC’s long-awaited return to London, the 02 Arena plays host to another Tom Aspinall main event. Alexander Volkov is no pushover, but Curtis Blaydes represents a wrestling-centric skillset that could dismantle Aspinall’s preferred fight. Darren Till’s pull-out may have sullied the co-main event a smidge, but Chris Curtis has richly deserved a promotional push in a winnable Middleweight contender fight against Jack Hermansson.

UFC London’s featured prelim will see two high-octane strikers lock horns and refuse to surrender an inch of ground. Lower down the prelims, Nathaniel Wood returns after a string of unfortunate external circumstances. Jai Herbert will look to build off his exciting yet ultimately brutal loss to Ilia Topuria, while Muhammad Mokaev’s hype train is set to soar with another promotional win under his belt.

Where/When is UFC London taking place:
July 23, 2022. 02 Arena. London, England.

What time does UFC London start:
🇬🇧 UK: 5pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 1pm

What channel is UFC London on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+

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At what point does the American fascination with Scousers stop?

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UFC London Picks & Odds

UFC London Fights & OddsWinnerMethodRound
Curtis Blaydes (+115)
Tom Aspinall (-135)
BlaydesTKO3
Chris Curtis (-110)
Jack Hermansson (-110)
HermanssonDecision/
Jordan Leavitt (+215)
Paddy Pimblett (-255)
PimblettTKO1
Alexander Gustafsson (+175)
Nikita Krylov (-205)
KrylovSubmission2
Hannah Goldy (+320)
Molly McCann (-390)
McCannDecision/
Paul Craig (+135)
Volkan Oezdemir (-155)
OezdemirTKO2
L’udovit Klein (+285)
Mason Jones (-345)
JonesDecision/
Damir Hadrovir (+295)
Marc Diakiese (-360)
DiakieseTKO3
Charles Rosa (+440)
Nathaniel Wood (-580)
WoodDecision/
Jonathan Pearce (-190)
Makwan Amirkhani (+160)
AmirkhaniSubmission1
Charles Johnson (+370)
Muhammad Mokaev (-460)
MokaevDecision/
Jai Herbert (-280)
Kyle Nelson (+235)
HerbertTKO3
Mandy Bohm (-120)
Victoria Leondardo (+100)
BohmDecision/
Claudio Silva (+205)
Nicolas Dalby (-245)
DalbyDecision/
Odds are based on BestFightOdds.com. All odds of 21 June 2022.

UFC London: Main Event

Curtis Blaydes vs Tom Aspinall

Heavyweight (265)

Curtis Blaydes (16-3)

Curtis Blaydes has an unwarranted tag of being a ‘boring fighter’. A strange sentiment for a fighter that has 6 finishes, and has been finished 3 times, over a fifteen-fight career. It may have been four years ago, but it would be wise to remember Blaydes’ hellbows that eviscerated Overeem on the mat.

On the feet, Blaydes is a functional striker. Chris Daukaus has a style ill-suited for Heavyweight, yet Blaydes remained calm under volume and found powerful clean counters. Aspinall is far more lethal on the feet, capable of suffocating opponents with volume. Unless Blaydes is stung with a shot, there is evidence that Blaydes will persist with his straight shots before searching for the takedown. The downfall for Blaydes against Derrick Lewis was to ditch the striking in favour of wrestling.

Can Tom Aspinall handle Blaydes’ terrifying wrestling base and unbudgeable top game? Over five rounds, Blaydes has a history of relentless wrestling – 14 takedowns against Alexander Volkov, 10 against Mark Hunt and 7 against Justin Willis. The American did slow by the championship rounds against Volkov, yet on the flip side, Aspinall noticeably slowed in the second round against Andrei Arlovski.

Tom Aspinall (12-2)

Initially, I felt that the jump up to Alexander Volkov was a step too soon for Tom Aspinall. The Salford lad only went and blew everybody’s expectations out of the water. Crisp, rhythmic timing from the opening bell, Aspinall stalked Volkov with short, sharp bursts on the feet. The finish may have been excellent, yet Aspinall’s slip inside of Volkov’s long straight and into a takedown was a piece of fighting beauty.

My same worries, as before the Volkov fight, may well rear their ugly head in this match-up. Aspinall’s slew of finishes has caught many eyes, but at some point (even at Heavyweight), a fighter needs to dig deep and grind out rounds. Blaydes has only been stopped by the most nuclear one-shot punchers at 265lbs, in contrast to Aspinall’s overwhelming volume. Does Aspinall have the rig to dig deep into the championship rounds against a proven five-round fighter?

Furthermore, if for whatever reason Aspinall cannot find his pace on the feet, does he back his wrestling against one of the only Heavyweight mat magicians? If Blaydes does end up on top, however, the end is not necessarily nigh. Aspinall has an array of submissions off his back that could neutralise Blaydes’ dangerous G’n’P.

Predicted Result: Blaydes TKO Round 3

I really want to buy into the Aspinall hype train, but Blaydes represents another huge leap in opposition quality. That isn’t to say this isn’t a razor-close call. Blaydes has developed an ugly habit of persisting with his striking early on rather than settling into a better-suited gameplan. Aspinall is blazing fast on the feet and is set to punish Blaydes’ powerful yet lumbering straight shots. Moreover, Aspinall’s array of submissions off his back could neutralise Blaydes’ dangerous G’n’P.

Still, the red flags regarding Aspinall were not answered by his early finish over Alexander Volkov. We have no evidence of Aspinall digging deep and adapting late into contests against the top-quality competition – unlike Blaydes. The American has only fallen to the mightiest one-shot power punchers, in contrast to Aspinall’s drowning volume. A fantastic main event that should edge either contender towards an interim title shot.

Result: Blaydes def. Aspinall // TKO (knee injury) Round 1 0:15

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ❌

I'm rooting for Aspinall, but the brain doth provide what thy heart desires | UFC London Predictions
I’m rooting for Aspinall, but the brain doth provide what thy heart desires

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UFC London: Co-Main Event

Jack Hermansson vs Chris Curtis

Middleweight (185)

Jack Hermansson (22-7)

Damn, The Joker’s only victory in the last two years has come against a mentally broken Edmen Shahbazyan. The Swede is an aggressive striker (against tamer punchers), in addition to a fantastically well-rounded grappler. Hermansson will enter with a technical gap against Chris Curtis, yet the established Middleweight has a respectable jab and is buttery smooth if he can set his ideal pace. Curtis, as a veteran counter-puncher, will allow the larger physical specimen to gain confidence over the rounds.

Chris Curtis (29-8)

A knockout may well be the only way for the last-minute replacement to earn a shock victory. Curtis has fast become a fan favourite with his open opinions on social media and an emotional underdog story to boot. With huge amounts of experience under his belt, Curtis fights with patience that only veterans show. Unfortunately for Curtis, a willingness to give up the early rounds in order to make reads may well take the fight out of his hands. Hermansson sits into his jab, allowing Curtis to land his trademark left hook over the top of it, but the Swede’s strong chin should be able to keep him ticking.

Predicted Result: Hermansson Decision

Hermansson sits into his jab, allowing Curtis to land his trademark left hook over the top of it, but the Swede’s strong chin should be able to keep him ticking. Curtis’ bodywork is vital to his game, but it rarely scores on judges’ scorecards. Hermansson’s long, consistent jab will earn him rounds. Add in Curtis’ slow starts and Hermansson will have the opportunity to gain confidence fighting at his preferred pace.

Result: Hermansson def. Curtis // Decision (UD – 29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

The plucky underdog, Chris Curtis, could just do it again | UFC London Predictions
The plucky underdog, Chris Curtis, could just do it again

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UFC London: Main Card

Paddy Pimblett vs Jordan Leavitt

Lightweight (155)

Paddy Pimblett (18-3)

Ay lad, it’s Paddy Pimblett. A personality always adds welcome entertainment to fights, but the flaws in the Liverpudlian’s game have not been ironed out since his transition from Cage Warriors. A frenetic all-offence striker, Pimblett continues to arc his chin towards the ceiling when throwing. Leavitt is a dreadful striker, however. The American has also struggled to find takedowns over his UFC stint, allowing Pimblett to throw the kitchen sink on the feet without punishment. If the fight transitions to the mat, both fighters are relatively threatening, but both men’s risk-taking will make it somewhat of a coin flip.

Jordan Leavitt (10-1)

The twerk machine, Jordan Leavitt, is a fun one-trick pony that could hopefully forge an entertaining career at the bottom of the barrel. Leavitt was neutralised by Claudio Puelles’ grappling, the mat doesn’t represent an area that will automatically lead to Pimblett’s demise. Devoid of technique or confidence on the feet, Leavitt’s offensive threat is muted, but can never amount to zero against Pimblett’s chin-first striking.

Predicted Result: Pimblett TKO round 1

The twerk machine, Jordan Leavitt, is a fun one-trick pony that could hopefully forge an entertaining career at the bottom of the barrel. Without a wrestling threat to take the fight to the mat, however, this should amount to a punishing beatdown on the feet. Devoid of technique or confidence on the feet, Leavitt’s offensive threat is muted, but can never amount to zero against Pimblett’s chin-first striking.

Result: Pimblett def. Leavitt // Submission (rear-naked choke) Round 2 2:46

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Nikita Krylov vs Alexander Gustafsson

Light Heavyweight (205)

Nikita Krylov (27-9)

The man laid to rest by the slick submission chops of Paul Craig, Krylov finds himself higher on the billing than his former adversary. Krylov used to be a kill or be killed madman, since 2019 however, the veteran operates a dull wrestling-centric approach. Back in the day, Gus has to be favoured to box the head off Krylov. Against a Swedish shell, however, expect Krylov to stink out the joint with busy kickboxing and control time.

Alexander Gustafsson (18-7)

Thirty-five years old and a shadow of the former title contender, Gustafsson should have laid down the gloves after an embarrassing first-round submission loss to Fabricio Werdum. The jab, the power, the shot selection on the outside – all the components that made Gus great have been missing since the Jon Jones rematch loss. I’d love to see the return of a prime Gus, but it just feels like it ain’t it chief.

Predicted Result: Krylov Submission Round 2

Thirty-five years old and a shadow of the former title contender, Gustafsson should have laid down the gloves after an embarrassing first-round submission loss to Fabricio Werdum. The jab, the power, the shot selection on the outside – all the components that made Gus great have been missing since the Jon Jones rematch loss. Expect Krylov to stink out the joint with busy kickboxing, control time and break Gus on the mat.

Result: Krylov def. Gustafsson // KO (punches) Round 1 1:07

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Molly McCann vs Hannah Goldy

Women’s Flyweight (125)

Molly McCann (12-4)

Oh, so we’re really trying to give McCann a promotional push now? Benefitting massively from her friendship with Paddy Pimblett, the Flyweight hit her ceiling with losses to Gillian Robertson and Lara Fritzen. McCann is an entertaining, highly aggressive striker – but lacks counter-punching chops and can be outwrestled. Goldy is solid on the mat, but the American struggles to settle into her takedowns under heavy duress. McCann will lay down a voluminous gauntlet and prevent Goldy from catching her breath.

Hannah Goldy (6-2)

A beefcake of a Flyweight, Goldy carries almost zero power. Stemming from her laughably short reach, Goldy has no confidence in striking on the front foot so spends most of her time backtracking on the feet. A first-round armbar over Emily Whitmire last time out exhibited a fighter with greater intent. Unfortunately, against McCann, it feels like an uphill battle stylistically.

Predicted Result: McCann Decision

We’re really in the era where Meatball is getting a promotional push, eh? McCann is an entertaining, highly aggressive striker – but lacks counter-punching chops and can be outwrestled. Goldy is solid on the mat, but the American struggles to settle into her takedowns under heavy duress. McCann will lay down a voluminous gauntlet and prevent Goldy from catching her breath.

Result: McCann def. Goldy // TKO (spinning back elbow and punches) Round 1 3:52

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Paul Craig vs Volkan Oezdemir

Light Heavyweight (205)

Paul Craig (16-4-1)

Once gatekeeper of Light Heavyweight, the Scotsman has rocketed on an upward trajectory after an abysmal split decision draw over the corpse of Mauricio Rua. A comeback triangle choke against Nikita Krylov was vintage Paul Craig, yet the brutal arm break and elbows from guard against Jamahal Hill remains my favourite memory. nudge, nudge. Don’t forget Craig also holds a buzzer-beater submission over Magomed Ankalaev.

Volkan Oezdemir (17-6)

Every time Oezdemir fights, the Swiss native breaks my heart. No two fights are the same for the technically gifted striker. Patient and calculated on the feet, Oezdemir utilises angles well and creates visibly awkward striking affairs for opponents. Craig will struggle massively to handle Oezdemir at range or in the pocket. When you consider Oezdemir holds an 80% career TDD despite facing the likes of Ankalaev, Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith and Misha Cirkunov – the hopes of a grappling battle start to fade fast.

Predicted Result: Oezdemir TKO Round 2

I love a bit of Paul Craig on any card, yet it wasn’t so long ago that the corpse of Shogun Rua almost stopped the gassed Scotsman. Patient and calculated on the feet, Oezdemir utilises angles well and creates visibly awkward striking affairs for opponents. Craig will struggle massively to handle Oezdemir at range or in the pocket. When you consider Oezdemir holds an 80% career TDD despite facing the likes of Ankalaev, Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith and Misha Cirkunov – the hopes of a grappling battle start to fade fast.

Result: Oezdemir def. Craig // Decision (UD – 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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UFC London: Preliminary Card

L’udovit Klein vs Mason Jones

Lightweight (155)

L’udovit Klein (18-4)

A ferocious kickboxer, Klein finally finds a tailor-made striking match-up destined for a FOTN bonus. Klein has wilted to grapplers in the past, Landwehr was able to drain Klein with pressure against the cage. Whether Klein can handle the pace that Jones set is yet to be seen, but the Slovak’s head kick will find a regular home on the Welshman.

Mason Jones (11-1)

As highly as I rate Klein as an entertaining prospect, Mike Trizano did break Klein down with a jab. Jones is a heavy-pressure fighter and will be constantly walking Klein down. Klein is a powerful single-shot striker, yet Jones’ combinations will leave a lasting effect. Aside from an early Klein kick taking the Welshman’s chin by surprise, this should be a brutal war with Jones pulling away in the later rounds.

Predicted Result: Jones Decision

Both Nate Landwehr and Mike Trizano have broken down L’udovit Klein in the past with pressure. Jones is a madman who will consistently walk opponents down with clean combinations. The Slovak is a powerful sniper, who when flowing, is one of the classiest strikers in the division. Aside from an early Klein kick taking the Welshman’s chin by surprise, this should be a brutal FOTN war with Jones pulling away in the later rounds.

Result: Klein def. Jones // Decision (UD – 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

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Marc Diakiese vs Damir Hadzovic

Lightweight (155)

Marc Diakiese (15-5)

There may not have been a highlight reel finish over Viacheslav Borshchev, but Diakiese won’t mind after breaking his short slide. Enduring a three-round beating to Rafael Fiziev amusingly ages graciously with every brutal finish that the Kyrgyzstani collects. Diakiese remains a plus athlete with underrated wrestling and a massive heart.

Damir Hadzovic (14-6)

Gotta be honest lads, I’m not sure Hadzovic is very good. A career scalp over Yancy Medeiros in his last outing, the slow-paced momentum striker has never developed his skillset. Susceptible to being out-wrestled, unable to push an uncomfortable pace on Diakiese – it would take a Diakiese mental meltdown to lose this one.

Predicted Result: Diakiese TKO Round 3

A combination of Hadzovic’s tendency to be out-wrestled and an inability to push a hard pace leaves it very much in the hands of a Diakiese mental meltdown for the Brit to lose this one. Diakiese is a plus athlete, who has regularly shown the ability to dig deep, and is a class or two above Hadzovic.

Result: Diakiese def. Hadzovic // Decision (UD – 30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

Return to Fight Card


Nathaniel Wood vs Charles Rosa

Featherweight (145)

Nathaniel Wood (17-5)

Despite the two-year gap, Nathaniel Wood finds himself a gentle return to the division. Wood’s issues stem from his preference for low kicks and leading with his chin. Rosa has an eye for a counter, but he rarely pulls the trigger.

Charles Rosa (14-7)

A strong neutraliser, Boston Strong spends most fights these days just pushing out enough activity to keep the rounds ticking. Rosa fights with a sparring partner mentality, caused largely by a lack of volume on the feet and an inability to transition to the mat.

Predicted Result: Wood Decision

Despite the two-year gap, Nathaniel Wood finds himself a gentle return to the division. Wood’s issues stem from his preference for low kicks and leading with his chin. Rosa has an eye for a counter, but he rarely pulls the trigger.

Result: Wood def. Rosa // Decision (UD – 30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

Return to Fight Card


Makwan Amirkhani vs Jonathan Pearce

Featherweight (145)

Makwan Amirkhani (17-7)

Mr Finland ruined Mike Grundy’s fairytale story with a brutal one-minute submission victory at UFC London in March. Amirkhani has struggled over recent years with SBG forcing the Finn to kickbox. On his day, Amirkhani is a terrifying early-round submission threat. Gas tank troubles have plagued his career, however.

Jonathan Pearce (12-4)

On the one hand, Jonathan Pearce was beaten to a pulp by Joe Lauzon in 2019. On the other, Pearce has a canny knack for surviving submissions and meat heading his way back into fights. Giving Amirkhani his ideal fight early, though, will create a huge scare.

Predicted Result: Amirkhani Submission Round 1

Amirkhani has struggled over recent years with SBG forcing the Finn to kickbox. On his day, Amirkhani is a terrifying early-round submission threat. Gas tank troubles have plagued his career, however, an area that Pearce thrives in. Giving Amirkhani his ideal fight early, though, seems like a recipe for disaster.

Result: Pearce def. Amirkhani // TKO (punches) Round 2 4:10

Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

Return to Fight Card


Muhammad Mokaev vs Charles Johnson

Flyweight (125)

Muhammad Mokaev (6-0)

There were a few nerves on show for Mokaev’s debut, throwing erratic explosive strikes during the opening minute. Capping off the minute with a guillotine choke victory over Cody Durden has set the hype train to the moon. The twenty-one-year has called out every name in the Flyweight division during his downtime yet the UFC has opted for calmer match-making.

Charles Johnson (11-2)

UFC debutant, Charles Johnson, carries a four-fight streak into the big leagues. Notably, Johnson engaged in a tit-for-tat fight with Brandon Royval – highlighting a bit of room to grow at Flyweight. Johnson pries with strikes on the outside to find holes, yet in the process, often primes himself for takedowns.

Predicted Result: Mokaev Decision

UFC debutant, Charles Johnson, carries a four-fight streak into the big leagues. Johnson pries with strikes on the outside to find holes, yet in the process, often primes himself for takedowns. Against a mat magician like Mokaev, it could be an ugly affair.

Result: Mokaev def. Johnson // Decision (UD – 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

Return to Fight Card


Jai Herbert vs Kyle Nelson

Lightweight (155)

Jai Herbert (11-4)

Yes, yes, yes. The Black Country Banger remains on the UFC books. There was a worry that Herbert’s 1-3 record, with all four fights resulting in finishes, would force the UFC’s hand in cutting the former Cage Warriors champ. Aside from brutal match-making, Herbert is a lethally accurate kickboxer who proved his power against Ilia Topuria. Terrible positional awareness and pocket fighting ended up biting Herbert in his last outing, but if the Wolverhampton man has free reign over the centre of the octagon, he is a brutal technician.

Kyle Nelson (13-4)

Another 1-3 record holder, Kyle Nelson represents a significantly lower ceiling. Nelson does own a power wrestling game that could threaten Herbert – it never seems like the Canadian has a definite game plan to seamlessly integrate his wrestling alongside striking. Nelson’s hands are heavy enough to crack Herbert’s biscuit chin, but it will be a huge task for Nelson to get inside of Herbert’s reach.

Predicted Result: Herbert TKO Round 3

Terrible positional awareness and pocket fighting ended up biting Herbert in his last outing, but if the Wolverhampton man has free reign over the centre of the octagon, he is a brutal technician. Considering Nelson rarely has a definite game plan to seamlessly integrate his wrestling alongside striking, it is difficult to see the Canadian work his way inside of Herbert’s reach.

Result: Herbert def. Nelson // Decision (UD – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

Return to Fight Card


Mandy Bohm vs Victoria Leonardo

Women’s Flyweight (125)

Mandy Bohm (7-1)

Would it have hurt the UFC to have skipped this fight during the booking process? A physical specimen carried in the regionals on the back of her athletic gifts, Bohm struggled in her UFC debut. Bohm was frozen on the feet under consistent volume from Ariane Lipski and found no way to get into the fight.

Victoria Leonardo (8-4)

A snapped arm against Melissa Gatto, a brutal TKO stoppage against Manon Fiorot – Victoria Leonardo has offered fabulous highlight reels for her opponents. Gritty and durable, Leonardo lacks athleticism in a soft division.

Predicted Result: Bohm Decision

Bohm was frozen on the feet under consistent volume from Ariane Lipski and found no way to get into the fight. Not that Leonardo has fared much better. A snapped arm against Melissa Gatto and a brutal TKO stoppage at the hands of Manon Fiorot have been Leonardo’s return in the UFC. Bohm’s athletic edge to get the W in a regional affair.

Result: Leonardo def. Bohm // Decision (UD – 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

Return to Fight Card


Nicolas Dalby vs Claudio Silva

Welterweight (170)

Nicolas Dalby (19-4-1)

A strange card opener but a welcome one. Dalby is very much a hot and cold fighter. On his day, Dalby can turn up to drag Till to a draw and claim victories over Daniel Rodriguez and Alex Oliveira. There are losses to Tim Means and Carlo Pedersoli that continually throw spanners in the works. A high-paced operator, Dalby requires his striking and grappling to piece together from the opening bell and prevent opponents from ever gaining a foothold.

Claudio Silva (14-3)

Once a feared submission artist, Silva’s 39 years on the planet have finally started to show. James Krause and Court McGee are two of the savviest veterans that the Brazilian had the misfortune of facing. If the UFC wanted Silva to earn a few more finishes, they need to hand over cocky prospects who want to test their chops on the mat with the BJJ practitioner.

Predicted Result: Dalby Decision

Dalby is very much a hot and cold fighter. On his day, Dalby can turn up to drag Till to a draw and claim victories over Daniel Rodriguez and Alex Oliveira. The Dane’s downfall is his requirement to set and stick to his preferred pace, preventing opponents from ever gaining a foothold. Silva, at a spritely 39 years, can’t match the pace Dalby will set on the feet.

Result: Dalby def. Silva // Decision (UD – 29-28, 29-28, 29-27)

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

Return to Fight Card


Prediction Accuracy

UFC London II

Winner: 11/14

Method: 7/14

Round: 6/14

2022 MMA Season

Winner: 193/302

Method: 147/302

Round: 128/302

MMA Overall

Winner: 689/1094

Method: 469/1094

Round: 452/1094

Takeaway comments: Well, that whole event probably set future UK events back a good decade.


TIPPING JAR

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