UFC Fight Night 199: Lewis vs Daukaus Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 199: Lewis vs Daukaus Predictions & Results

Pintsized Background

Savour this card, we have a month off UFC until the next event! Apologies if this article feels briefer than usual, but Pintsized has suffered from COVID throughout the week. Even on my sickbed, I couldn’t allow one UFC event to slip away – having covered EVERY other event in 2021.

Failed to catch last weekend’s action? No worries, we have you covered:
PI’s Preview: UFC 269 Predictions.
PI’s Review: MAFB: UFC 269.
PI’s Scoring: MAFB Math: UFC 269.
PI’s Recommended Fight: Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio.

Unconvinced by Pintsized’s mystical predicting powers? Take a look at our prediction success last month detailed in UFC Predictions Results: November 2021.

It was strange to see Ricky Simon without his mullet against Brian Kelleher | UFC Fight Night 199: Predictions
It was strange to see Ricky Simon without his mullet against Brian Kelleher | UFC Fight Night 199: Predictions

UFC Fight Night 199: Main Event

Derrick Lewis (25-8) vs Chris Daukaus (12-3)

Heavyweight (265)

Derrick Lewis

Is Lewis capable of mentally accepting his role as a gatekeeper? Does it even matter? A string of excuses has always followed Lewis’ career – poor camp quality, poor nutrition, numerous injuries. At what point do we just admit that Lewis has never been capable of transforming into anything other than a counter-striker with legendary power? Combined with a decent chin, ability to conserve his energy and keep a fight standing, Derrick Lewis has consistently remained relevant in the Heavyweight title picture.

Lewis’ last outing was a horrendous showing against Interim champion, Ciryl Gane. Gane’s liquid kickboxing kept Lewis engrossed, biting hard on every feint from the Frenchman. It is typical of Lewis to play possum for huge chunks of a fight – sometimes lulling opponents into risks, most times just conserving energy. After being peppered with leg kicks and single shots, Lewis attempted to relieve the pressure by pressing forward, but he lacked the cage-cutting knowhow to deal with Gane’s swift lateral movement. The Black Beast did at least punt Gane in the balls for his first significant strike, though!

Of importance will be Lewis’ natural size and build for Heavyweight. Daukaus’ frame is strangely disproportionate and suggests a body better suited for Light Heavyweight. Technically superior in the clinch or not, Lewis won’t find himself bullied against the cage as Gane so easily achieved. Likewise, Gane was able to stay composed when chasing the finish against Lewis. Volkov, Tybura, Browne and Blaydes all met their fate after attempting to cash in on their upper hand. The odds suggest Daukaus will fall into the latter group.

Chris Daukaus

After being dropped by the Philadelphia police, Chris Daukaus enters his bout against Lewis as a fully-fledged professional mixed martial artist. A four-fight stoppage streak has seen Daukaus sky-rocket up the barren Heavyweight rankings. By sky-rocket, I am referring to the rankings. Quality-wise, the jump between Parker Porter and an ancient Shamil Abdurakhimov is laughably small. The Black Beast represents the first stern litmus test for Daukaus. Every script would have to be torn if Daukaus is able to stop Lewis in the first round. We will finally be able to see Daukaus’ ability to control a fight into the later rounds.

Daukaus will have to fight an unnatural game against Lewis. During his tenure in the UFC, the Philly boxer has walked down his opponents and won 50/50 trades based on his superior hand speed. A preferred shot of Daukaus is his step-in straight right and leaves him stationary in the pocket. While there is no denying Daukaus’ sting, it isn’t a concussive power that will instil fear in Lewis. The Black Beast will punish Daukaus if he throws the lunging straight naked. Instead, Daukaus needs to be showcase more of the feints that found him great success against Abdurakhimov. Feinting a body jab into the left hook knocked down the Russian and left him unable to recover.

Worrying, Daukaus has barely worn a shot in the UFC. The short nature of his fights leaves question marks surrounding his durability. His knockout loss to Azunna Anyanwu is particularly concerning. Daukaus attempted to dominate the fight in the same manner as all four of his UFC wins, yet was out-gunned and out-powered by a technically mediocre fighter. Cliche or not, Lewis only needs one shot before it’s lights out. We are yet to see Daukaus’ ability to adapt in the octagon to an opponent. Daukaus could sweep the first round against Lewis but totally fall apart if Lewis earns his respect early in the second round.

Predicted Result: Lewis TKO Round 4

Of importance will be Lewis’ natural size and build for Heavyweight. Daukaus’ frame is strangely disproportionate and suggests a body better suited for Light Heavyweight. Technically superior in the clinch or not, Lewis won’t find himself bullied against the cage as Gane so easily achieved. Lewis’ ability to surprise late in a contest is well documented – Daukaus’ experience of controlling a contest beyond the second round against such a threat is yet to be seen.

Daukaus’ knockout loss to Azunna Anyanwu is particularly concerning. Daukaus attempted to dominate the fight in the same manner as all four of his UFC wins, yet was out-gunned and out-powered by a technically mediocre fighter. Daukaus’ reliance on the step-in straight will leave him in trouble against Lewis. While there is no denying Daukaus’ sting, it isn’t concussive power. The Black Beast will punish Daukaus when he throws the lunging straight naked, or as he sits patiently in the pocket afterwards.

Result: Lewis def. Daukaus // KO (punches) Round 1 3:36

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ❌

Write off the Black Beast at your own risk! | UFC Fight Night 199: Predictions
Write off the Black Beast at your own risk! | UFC Fight Night 199: Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 199: Co-Main Event

Stephen Thompson (16-5-1) vs Belal Muhammad (19-3)

Welterweight (170)

Stephen Thompson

Wonderboy’s loss to Gilbert Burns still stings. An ugly fight with debatable shots from Burns means that we are unlikely to ever see Thompson fight for a UFC title again. Perhaps I’m just salty that Wonderboy finally looked his 38years of age against Burns. Thompson was taken down, he was controlled in the clinch, his feet weren’t as snappy. The NMF has endured a wonderfully entertaining career with an iconic highlight reel, but the ride is coming to a close.

For all the cracks that Burns exposed on Thompson, the veteran’s striking was still super crisp in the second round. Rhythmic bouncing footwork, spinning wheel kicks, and sharp 1-2s kept the Brazilian gun-shy on the outside and unwilling to throw his powerful overhands. A return to Wonderboy’s teep kicks would be a welcome return against Muhammad, who will leave his body open regularly as he probes away with his jab.

Belal Muhammad

Belal Muhammad’s greatest weakness is against Southpaws. Alan Jouban and Geoff Neal had an easier time as Muhammad failed to execute his jab. Although Belal’s bread and butter is his grinding, wrestling background – the wheels are greased by his jab. Using the strike to control position in the octagon, Muhammad’s freakish cardio means that he can drop volume freely. An insane pace alone is not enough to stop Wonderboy, however, even in his twilight years, the Karate master is too wily to coax into consistent striking exchanges.

Despite Muhammad’s best attempts to make himself relevant to casuals, his decision-first style destroys his activity across social media. Muhammad’s stance-switches allow him to create new angles to surprise opponents. Sadly for Muhammad, however, he often switches stances within range of his opponent. Wonderboy closes distance rapidly and could more easily drop Muhammad in his unbalanced state. The fact that Demian Maia was able to occasionally land first in exchanges with Muhammad also spells doom.

Predicted Result: Thompson Decision

For all the cracks that Gilbert Burns exposed on Stephen Thompson TDD, the veteran’s striking remains buttery smooth. Rhythmic bouncing footwork, spinning wheel kicks, and sharp 1-2s kept the Brazilian gun-shy on the outside. Muhammad’s jab is a necessary weapon to transition into his wrestling. If, as expected, Wonderboy can strip Muhammad of his jab – this will be a dominating affair.

Additionally, Muhammad’s stance-switches allow him to create new angles to surprise opponents. Often switching stances within range of his opponent, however, spells danger. Wonderboy closes distance rapidly and could more easily drop Muhammad in his unbalanced state.

Result: Muhammad def. Wonderboy // Decision (unanimous – 30-26, 30-26, 30-25)

Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

Just a reminder that Edwards vs Muhammad 2 is likely around the corner | UFC Fight Night 199: Predictions
Just a reminder that Edwards vs Muhammad 2 is likely around the corner | UFC Fight Night 199: Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 199: Main Card

Amanda Lemos (10-1-1) vs Angela Hill (13-10)

Women;s Strawweight (115)

Amanda Lemos

Hell yeah, this should be a really fun fight. Lemos has an unnaturally strong power base for Women’s Strawweight. Plus athletes at 125lbs don’t come very often – drink it in, lads! Lemos’ last loss to Leslie Smith stemmed from the Brazilian’s inability to adapt and deal with the pressure from the American. Hill is nowhere near a similar physical freak as Smith and has never shown the pressuring ability to replicate Smith’s performance. Lemos’ granite chin should eat Hill’s early flurries and enable Lemos to suffocate the space that Hill needs to operate on the outside. Lemos has also shown a level of wrestling ability that could prove fruitful – given Hill’s leaky TDD even after development over the years.

Angela Hill

There was a point where it felt like Hill had strung her game together perfectly. Victories over Ariane Carnelossi, Hannah Cifers and Loma Lookboonmee had Hill setting her sights towards the title. A debatable split decision loss to Claudia Gadelha dampened the mood before another split decision went against Hill after five rounds with Michelle Waterson. Last time out, the rematch with Tecia Torres once again found Hill taking the L. For all the improvements that Hill has made to her wrestling and grappling – there has been no visible developments to striking defence. Hill moves back in a straight line and drops her hands when disengaging with an opponent. It doesn’t seem advisable against Lemos, a fighter with KO power.

Predicted Result: Lemos TKO Round 2

Will Angela Hill swallow the first knockout loss of her career on Saturday night? Lemos has an unnaturally strong power base for Women’s Strawweight. Lemos’ granite chin should eat Hill’s early flurries and enable Lemos to suffocate the space that Hill needs to operate on the outside. For all the improvements that Hill has made to her wrestling and grappling – there has been no visible developments to striking defence. Hill moves back in a straight line and drops her hands when disengaging with an opponent – a recipe for disaster against KO power. Hill could still pip a decision based on her volume and activity on the feet, but it has been a long time since Hill’s last quality win.

Result: Lemos def. Hill // Decision (split – 28-29, 29-28, 30-27)

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Raphael Assuncao (27-8) vs Ricky Simon (18-3)

Bantamweight (135)

Raphael Assuncao

Damn, Assuncao has not won a fight since 2018. Granted, the Brazilian has continued to fight elite competition – but one of those losses has come against post-Dillashaw, Cody Garbrandt. Assuncao is a stifling striker with a stabbing jab and excellent pressure footwork that can transition into his elite grappling chops. Even at thirty-nine in the Bantamweight division, this isn’t a death sentence. Assuncao has always relied on technicals not athleticism, and Ricky Simon has several flaws on the feet. Whether Assuncao can keep up his quality defence for three rounds against a younger, more physical opponent is questionable, however.

Ricky Simon

After many months of trying, Ricky Simon finally got the chance to face off with Brian Kelleher – a vastly underrated fighter on the roster. Simon’s decision win was earned with relative ease, owing to the Vancouver fighter jumping into takedowns early. An aggressive striker, Simon has found himself in trouble in the past for his willingness to stay standing and fight to an opponent’s preferred game. On the mat, Simon is a gruelling presence who was surprisingly defensively aware of Kelleher’s submission threat. Simon’s body hook counters on the feet could prove cash money against the slowing jab of Assuncao.

Predicted Result: Simon Decision

Even at thirty-nine in the Bantamweight division, this isn’t a death sentence for Assuncao. The Brazilian is a stifling striker with a stabbing jab and excellent pressure footwork that can transition into his elite grappling chops. Even for his flaws on the feet, however, Ricky Simon has to be favoured based on his style. The younger, more physically imposing fighter will drain Assuncao’s gas tank early – and Simon’s greater willingness to wrestle allows him to grind out opponents from the top. Assuncao poses a submission threat, but Simon was surprisingly defensively aware of Kelleher’s chokes off the back.

Result: Simon def. Assuncao // KO (punches) Round 2 2:14

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Diego Ferreira (17-4) vs Mateusz Gamrot (19-1)

Lightweight (155)

Diego Ferreira

The writing on the wall has started to emerge for Diego Ferreira. That isn’t to say the grappling supreme isn’t still a joy to watch. Hopes of a title run have been all but ended, however. Gamrot will be more than willing to wrestle with Ferreira and allow the Brazilian to access his potent submissions early. Pace killed Ferreira last time out. Although the first round was a competitive affair, Gillespie entered the second round with a second wind which allowed the American to find the finish. Perhaps underrated is Ferreira’s powerful hands that could catch Gamrot unaware. It isn’t a safe bet, however.

Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot should be considered the favourite in this match-up. A tireless wrestler who will be more than happy to grapple with Ferreira’s threatening arsenal – the question is whether the Pole can handle that heat in the early rounds? If Gamrot fought intelligently, he would force an uncomfortable pace on Ferreira before testing their grappling mettle in the later rounds. Gamrot’s aggression on the feet is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, Gamrot will force Ferreira to gas earlier if he is defensively taxed. On the other, Gamrot could walk onto a hard counter from the Brazilian – having relied a little too much on his chin so far in the UFC.

Predicted Result: Gamrot Decision

Gamrot should be considered the favourite in this match-up. A tireless wrestler who will be more than happy to grapple with Ferreira’s threatening arsenal – the question is whether the Pole can handle that heat in the early rounds? The pace of fights has started to look to visibly wear on Ferreira. Gamrot’s early aggression on the feet could either tax Ferreira’s gas tank or see the Pole walking onto a hard counter – having relied a little too often on his chin in his UFC run so far.

Result: Gamrot def. Ferreira // TKO (submission to body knee) Round 2 3:26

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Darren Elkins (26-9) vs Cub Swanson (27-12)

Featherweight (145)

Darren Elkins

The pace that Darren Elkins sets has dropped a notch since his freakishly fun run over 2015-2018. A small career resurgence against Eduardo Garagorri and Darrick Minner has extended Elkins career, but the victories were petty imitations of his prime. The game plan remains the same – huge early pressure into takedowns and ugly scrambles with the sole goal of dragging the fight into a brawl. Elkins’ submission defence and heart were on showing especially against Minner, who flipped the momentum of the fight in just a few seconds during the second round. Swanson is too savvy a veteran to let-go control of the fight against Elkins.

Cub Swanson

No matter the love I have for my Cub Swanson, I can never be fully confident in the veteran. When the pieces find themselves put together on the night, Swanson is a free-flowing, heavy-handed, natural striker. Daniel Pineda and Kron Gracie were pieced apart by Swanson, tagging them regularly with goofy looking ducking overhands but then following up with clean three-punch boxing combinations. It’s a strange cocktail of reactive striking and occasional technical perfection that only a thirty-eight-year-old fighter could offer. Swanson’s durability is still undeniably wonderful, whether he can keep up with the pace that Elkins offers is the interesting dynamic.

Predicted Result: Swanson Decision

The pace that Darren Elkins sets has dropped a notch since his freakishly fun run over 2015-2018. A small career resurgence against Eduardo Garagorri and Darrick Minner has extended Elkins career, but the victories were petty imitations of his prime. Chikadze may have stopped Swanson uncharacteristically early, but the veteran’s heart won’t break under Elkins’ pressure. Instead, Swanson’s strange cocktail of reactive striking and occasional technical perfection will keep a tight hold over the fight momentum.

Result: Swanson def. Elkins // TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) Round 1 2:12

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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UFC Fight Night 199: Preliminary Card

Gerald Meerschaert (33-14) vs Dustin Stoltzfus (13-3)

Middleweight (185)

Gerald Meerschaert

Every fight since Chimaev flat-lined Meerschaert, another string is added to the Swede’s bow. Makhmud Muradov was a hugely promising prospect before Meerschaert shocked him last time out. There was a bit of gamesmanship with a few eye pokes, but it was what the commentary booth love to call “veteran tactics”. A polished grappler with a wealth of experience, Meerschaert continues to make his career breaking prospects who cannot methodically break down an opponent. There are still striking limitations, especially Meerschaert’s difficultly in dealing with striking off the cage, but it has sharpened enough to a functioning degree.

Dustin Stoltzfus

A durable hard-nut, Stoltzfus lacks the technical or athletic edge to overcome the veteran test of Meerschaert. For Stoltzfus to win on the feet, it would require him to press the action early. Unfortunately, Stoltzfus has so far shown far greater willingness to test his luck on the back-foot. Stoltzfus’ elbows off the back could open up a cut on Meerschaert, but the veteran is far too wily on the mat not to punish the American.

Predicted Result: Meerschaert Decision

Although Meerschaert has a history of poor luck on the scorecards, it is difficult to see Stoltzfus getting the upper hand in this affair. A durable hard-nut, Stoltzfus lacks a technical or athletic edge. Meerschaert’s polished grappling will overwhelm Stoltzfus on the mat, while the thirty-year-old lacks the firepower on the feet to threaten Meers’ ageing chin. A submission victory from either man is a potential avenue, but I just foresee a muted affair between the two.

Result: Meerschaert def. Stoltzfus // Submission (rear-naked choke) Round 3 2:58

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Raoni Barcelos (16-2) vs Victor Henry (21-5)

Bantamweight (135)

Raoni Barcelos

So, Raoni Barcelos barely (BARELY) loses to Timur Valiev and now he is back to fighting newbies? Give this man a damn push. Barcelos isn’t getting any younger (34) and his skillset is somewhat based on his exceptional athleticism. An elite grappler, the hype behind Barcelos is largely around his dynamite power in his hands and exceptional timing. Barcelos can tire down the stretch, as he did against Valiev, but more often than not he will find the finish with a nuclear counter.

Victor Henry

Henry has fought across a variety of promotions with differing levels of quality. There is certainly a spot on the roster for a fighter of Henry’s quality. It was only a couple of years ago that Henry beat Kyler Phillips – the Bantamweight who tore through Yadong Song this year. Henry’s activity in the clinch will make or break the newcomer against Barcelos. Committing to flurries of knees, Barcelos will either be overwhelmed early or punish Henry with his superior power differential. In a clean striking showdown, Henry’s tendency to kick on the inside will see Henry eat devastating counters.

Predicted Result: Barcelos TKO Round 2

There is certainly a spot on the roster for a fighter of Henry’s quality. It was only a couple of years ago that Henry beat Kyler Phillips. Unfortunately, for some strange reason, Raoni Barcelos has been held back as the man tasked to introduce Henry to the UFC. Henry is well-rounded and his activity in the clinch could cause Barcelos a few problems. Most likely, however, Henry’s tendency to kick on the inside will see Barcelos unload his dynamite power.

Result: 🚫 FIGHT CANCELLED (COVID) 🚫

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Justin Tafa (4-3) vs Harry Hunsucker (7-4)

Heavyweight (265)

Justin Tafa

Heh. I actually thought this was a rematch until I found out that Harry Hunsucker and Jared Vanderaa are different people entirely. Tafa has lost all confidence after a 1-3 run in the UFC. Hunsucker is the kindest offering for Tafa to unload his power shots without needing to close the distance or any other technical factors that you’d expect of a UFC quality fight. Please let the first big burst of the fight be the concluding exchange.

Harry Hunsucker

Hunsucker has never beaten a fighter of note despite accumulating seven victories over his career. Knockout losses to Tai Tuivasa and Jared Vanderaa highlight the lack of technical or athletic talent needed to make it in the upper echelons of the sport. Hunsucker can walk forward and set a decent pace. Unfortunately, after eating the first shot from Tuivasa, Hunsucker worryingly reacted in a gun-shy fashion. Tafa’s early power will break Hunsucker mentally.

Predicted Result: Tafa TKO Round 1

Tafa has lost all confidence after a 1-3 run in the UFC. Hunsucker is the kindest offering for Tafa to unload his power shots without needing to close the distance. Hunsucker can walk forward and set a decent pace. Unfortunately, after eating the first shot from Tuivasa, Hunsucker worryingly reacted in a gun-shy fashion. Tafa’s early power will break Hunsucker mentally.

Result: Tafa def. Hunsucker // KO (head kick) Round 1 1:53

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

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Sijara Eubanks (7-6) vs Melissa Gatto (7-0-2)

Women’s Flyweight (125)

Sijara Eubanks

A horrible fight for Sijara Eubanks. Win, and it is seen as a victory over a green prospect. Lose, and Eubanks loses any hopes of ever mounting a title shot at thirty-six years old. At Flyweight, we haven’t yet seen if Eubanks has solved her conditioning issues. Gatto doesn’t seem the fighter to threaten Eubanks’ gas tank, however. Eubanks should physically overwhelm Gatto to the extent that the Brazilian is unable to cleanly showcase her grappling chops.

Melissa Gatto

A young prospect, Gatto dazzled with a second-round submission on her UFC debut against Victoria Leonardo. Coming off of a three-year lay-off, it was uncertain how much ring-rust Gatto would suffer from. Some particularly ugly scrambles in the first round were capitalised upon with devastatingly fast submission attempts. Gatto looks to be a fun fighter, but it is difficult to see the Brazilian being able to take Eubanks down with as much ease as Leonardo. Eubanks’ activity on the feet should take this.

Predicted Result: Eubanks Decision

At Flyweight, we haven’t yet seen if Eubanks has solved her conditioning issues. Gatto doesn’t seem the fighter to threaten Eubanks’ gas tank, however. Eubanks should physically overwhelm Gatto to the extent that the Brazilian is unable to cleanly showcase her grappling chops. Eubanks has shown the ability to land meaningful shots from the top, but there isn’t any point in risking the fight on the mat against Gatto’s chain submission attempts.

Result: Gatto def. Eubanks // TKO (body kick and punches) Round 3 0:45

Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Charles Jourdain (11-4-1) vs Andre Ewell (17-8)

Featherweight (145)

Charles Jourdain

The submission loss to Julian Erosa was a painful ending to what had been a high-octane fight that defines what Jourdain brings to the octagon. Zero cage-generalship, zero game planning, 100% reactive chaos striking. In clean striking affairs, Jourdain is a relentless power striker with a freakish chin. The main defect in Jourdain’s kit has been a leaky TDD and his adapted striking to counter takedowns.

Andre Ewell

Moving up in weight, Ewell will still enjoy a 6″ reach advantage that could prove vital against Charles Jourdain. Ewell’s jab was a key weapon at Bantamweight and will have to remain as potent at 145lbs. Ewell will be able to match Jourdain with speed, but he cannot be lulled into trading on the inside with the Canadian. Ewell’s simplest path to victory are jabs and push kicks to keep Jourdain frustrated on the outside. Mentally, Ewell can switch off later in a fight and fail to control the distance. It is a deadly failure against the power of Jourdain.

Predicted Result: Jourdain TKO Round 3

The main defect in Jourdain’s kit has been a leaky TDD and his adapted striking to counter takedowns. Thankfully for the Canadian, Andre Ewell will keep this fight standing. Ewell’s simplest path to victory are jabs and push kicks to keep Jourdain frustrated on the outside of his 6″ reach advantage. Mentally, Ewell can switch off later in a fight and fail to control the distance. It is a deadly failure against the power of Jourdain.

Result: Jourdain def. Ewell // Decision (unanimous – 29-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Raquel Pennington (12-8) vs Macy Chiasson (7-1)

Women’s Featherweight (145)

Raquel Pennington

Either of these women could realistically challenge for Pena’s title today and emerge as the new Bantamweight champion. That at least adds a little spice to this affair. Raquel Pennington is a ridiculously ugly fighter, but it has a certain charm to it. Walking down opponents with a granite chin, Pennington looks to clinch up and dirty box to the scorecards. It’s rare to see the ‘take one to give one’ style in MMA, but it sure is effective in stifling an opponent’s best game (Irene Aldana, Miesha Tate, Marion Reneau have all fallen to Pennington’s gruelling wars on the inside).

Macy Chiasson

At first glance, Macy Chiasson’s huge frame appears to be a massive advantage. Chiasson could use her frame to keep Pennington from working onto the inside and pepper her from range. Unfortunately, Chiasson has shown a career preference for fighting on the inside and breaking fighters in the clinch. Against a better clinch fighter and wrestler, Chiasson will have to have shown wholesale improvements since the Lina Lansberg loss to compete with Pennington at her own game.

Predicted Result: Pennington Decision

Raquel Pennington is a ridiculously ugly fighter, but it has a certain charm to it. Walking down opponents with a granite chin, Pennington looks to clinch up and dirty box to the scorecards. It’s rare to see the take one to give one style in MMA, but it sure is effective in stifling an opponent’s best game. Surprisingly when considering her frame, Chiasson will prefer the war on the inside. Against a better clinch fighter and wrestler, Chiasson will have to have shown wholesale improvements since the Lina Lansberg loss to compete with Pennington at her own game.

Result: Pennington def. Chiasson // Submission (guillotine choke) Round 2 3:07

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Don’Tale Mayes (8-4) vs Josh Parisian (14-4)

Heavyweight (265)

Don’Tale Mayes

At 6’6″, Mayes is an absolute juggernaut in the octagon. A glaring problem with Mayes is his footwork. Never moving his feet to strike, Mayes falls into his strikes and loses much of the power in the process. It also leads to Mayes leaving his chin extended and his base unbalanced for counters. Beautiful intercepting elbows punish static opponents, but without a solid base beneath him, Mayes will struggle to put away better quality opponents who can move their feet.

Josh Parisian

In contrast to the ease with which Don’Tale Mayes dealt with Roque Martinez, Parisian found himself in a world of trouble in the first round. Beaten up in the first round by Martinez’s sweltering clinch, Parisian adapted by pressing his opponent to the fence instead. Parisian landed surprisingly sharp knees and elbows, but his best work came on the outside. Parisian’s ability to counter off the back-foot will see him punish Mayes as he overextends onto his attacks.

Predicted Result: Parisian Decision

A glaring problem with Mayes is his footwork. Never moving his feet to strike, Mayes falls into his strikes and loses much of the power in the process. Parisian’s ability to counter off the back-foot will see him punish Mayes as he overextends onto his attacks. Still, Roque Martinez was able to drag Parisian through hell in the first round of their bout. Mayes, at 6’6″, has the physical prowess to bully Parisian in a similar manner against the cage.

Result: Mayes def. Parisian // TKO (elbows) Round 3 3:26

Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Matt Sayles (8-3) vs Jordan Leavitt (8-1)

Lightweight (155)

Matt Sayles

Jumping up to Lightweight after a two-year lay-off is somewhat questionable. Sayles was already underweight at 145lbs, his boxing isn’t going to find much more success at Lightweight. As a naturally fast athlete, he will struggle against anyone other than Leavitt at Lightweight. Even then, is Sayles physically capable of dealing with Leavitt’s takedowns?

Jordan Leavitt

The limitations of ‘The Monkey King’ has never been clearer than last time out against Claudio Puelles. Leavitt’s activity on the feet is limited to leg kicks and immediately springing on single legs. Against a fighter, such as Puelles, capable of scrambling out of the first takedown attempt – Leavitt is a sitting duck on the feet. Sayles can handle himself on the mat, but we are yet to see it against a large Lightweight.

Predicted Result: Leavitt Submission Round 1

At a certain point, weight plays a major part in a fight. Sayles was already underweight at 145lbs, his boxing isn’t going to find much more success at Lightweight. Even with Claudio Puelles exposing the limitations of Leavitt’s all-round game, is Sayles physically capable of dealing with Leavitt’s takedowns? Moreover, can Sayles grapple defensively to the same efficiency against a naturally far larger man?

Result: Leavitt def. Sayles // Submission (inverted triangle choke) Round 2 2:05

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ❌

Return to Fight Card


Prediction Accuracy

UFC Fight Night 199

Winner: 10/13

Method: 4/13

Round: 2/13

2021 MMA Season

Winner: 305/488

Method: 226/488

Round: 199/488

MMA Overall

Winner: 496/792

Method: 363/792

Round: 325/792

Takeaway comments: Is it too late for Chris to get on the Philly police force?


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