The UFC has seen its fair share of last-minute shake-ups and surprising twists, but it feels as though it has become a yearly tradition, with UFC 294 proving no exception. This Saturday, at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, the stakes could not be higher as the undisputed Featherweight and Lightweight champions clash once again.
Originally slated to be a rematch between lightweight champ Islam Makhachev and former titleholder Charles Oliveira, fate had other plans. A cut forced the beloved Brazilian to drop out, and in an astonishing twist, Makhachev’s former adversary Alexander Volkanovski stepped up on just ten days’ notice.
UFC 294’s drama does not end at the Main Event, however, with Co-Main Eventer Paulo Costa having pulled out of his grudge match against Khamzat Chimaev. Out of the left field entered former Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, who boldly volunteered himself for a Middleweight debut in a title eliminator
We will wax lyrical later in the article about the potential fireworks between Light Heavyweight contenders Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker, but without further ado, let’s dive into our UFC 294 main card predictions.
Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski
In terms of pound-for-pound rankings, Alexander Volkanovski is clear of Islam Makhachev following their closely contested first encounter. Volkanovski vs Makhachev 1 showcased the best versions of both fighters after full training camps, with the Aussie shading it on the scorecards for me. Ahead of Saturday’s rematch, however, Volkanovski is a long way from peak fitness following a startlingly late weight cut.
Makhachev surprised many with his striking skills in their first bout, but he also struggled to dominate Volkanovski on the ground in the same manner he achieved with his Lightweight peers. With Alexander ‘The Great’ a step off peak fighting shape, Makhachev has to be favoured to dominate the later rounds on account of his physical wrestling threat.
Once again, I must reiterate that Volkanovski is a generational talent, arguably the Featherweight GOAT. Central to Volkanovski’s success has been his versatility, approaching each of his title defences with a different game plan. While it wouldn’t be overly shocking if Volkanovski defies the odds, logic suggests that Makhachev (an elite champion himself) will impress in front of a partisan crowd.
Makhachev vs Volkanovski Prediction: Makhachev Submission Round 2
Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev
Since losing his Welterweight belt, Kamaru Usman has emerged as a fan favourite online. Whether it’s our natural human inclination to support a weathered veteran, or perhaps his six-month hiatus from supporting a Chechen warlord, the Nigerian Nightmare is gaining significant goodwill ahead of his Co-Main Event bout against Khamzat Chimaev.
Without undermining Chimaev’s achievements, ‘Borgz’ last competitive bout came about in April 2022 against Gilbert Burns. The Russian’s hastily scratched-together fight against Kevin Holland five months later was a farcical circus which saw Dana bend over backwards to appease a potential cash cow. While Chimaev didn’t miss weight this Saturday, he once again finds himself the recipient of favourable matchmaking.
Usman’s three-year dominance at the apex of 170 lbs is undeniable. Unfortunately for the 36-year-old, the division was a dumpster fire long before his arrival and failed to produce any meaningful challengers before Leon Edward’s long-awaited title shot. The Nigerian’s knees have been a hot subject of discussion since his Joe Rogan revelations, but they have yet to be exposed in the octagon so far. While moving to Middleweight won’t halt Father Time, a less gruelling weight cut could benefit a fighter who has a ton of miles on the body.
Usman vs Chimaev Prediction: Chimaev Decision
Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker
Upon revisiting the Magomed Ankalaev vs. Jan Blachowicz fight, it’s clear that some criticism was harsh. The five-rounder won’t be challenging the ‘instant classics’ folder anytime soon, but it was an intriguing chess match (if fought at a lethargic pace). Ultimately, Ankalaev’s patience is an integral part of his game, his measured conservatism owes to a natural rhythm that throws opponents off their game.
In stark contrast, Johnny Walker’s early career approach was a total polar opposite. The loveable Brazilian cashed in finish-of-the-night bonuses for fun during a 3-finish streak over five months. Following a string of brutal stoppage losses, however, Walker has transformed into a patient counter-puncher. While it has helped to secure career scalps over Anthony Smith and Paul Craig, the approach has also surrendered the incredible raw athleticism that made him ‘must-watch’ TV.
Ankalaev vs Walker Prediction: Ankalaev TKO Round 1
Ikram Aliskerov vs Warlley Alves
The UFC doesn’t half do subtlety, does it? Warlley Alves hasn’t picked up a win in nearly three years, and with just two fights since the start of 2021, it would be fair to say Alves is ring-rusty. The career Welterweight was a hot prospect after picking up the TUF Brazil silverware in 2014. After failing to leave a meaningful mark in the promotion, however, he now steps in at late notice to face Ikram Aliskerov at Middleweight.
While Aliskerov isn’t a stud prospect, the Russian is a natural Middleweight with knockout power to boot. Alves’ deep experience against tougher opposition will force Aliskerov to dig deep to find a stoppage. While an early repeat of Aliskerov’s right cross that felled Phil Hawes is unlikely, it still feels like relatively dangerous matchmaking.
Aliskerov vs Alves Prediction: Aliskerov TKO Round 3
Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov
After dropping a points decision to Jonathan Martinez in March earlier this year, Said Nurmagomedov‘s career hit a sizeable hurdle. Yet, following Martinez’s stoppage victory over Adrian Yanez last weekend, the Russian’s performance retrospectively looks better on paper. While the Dagestani Bantamweight is a solid wrestler like his peers, Said’s true strength is found in his creative striking combinations.
Not that the direction of the fight should matter against the winless UFC fighter Muin Gafurov. The Tajiki striker gathered respectable experience in ONE Championship but was thoroughly outclassed in his debut by John Castaneda on the mat. If Nurmagomedov shows his takedown threat early, it will create enough holes in Gafurov’s defence to finish this fight early.
Nurmagomedov vs Gafurov Prediction: Nurmagomedov TKO Round 2
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