UFC 280 Predictions, Odds and Results: Oliveira vs Makhachev
UFC 280 Pintsized Background
BT Sport fans beware, UFC 280 Predictions is a belting card but comes with a rare Box Office price tag. A pay-per-view event that lacks an era-defining headliner, but instead offers five elite or high-level fights. Surprisingly, the entirety of the card is strong – a departure from what fans have come to expect from the UFC’s PPV model.
Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev lock horns in the UFC 280 main event. Despite Oliveira losing his belt on the scales before his victory over Justin Gaethje, it would be foolish to consider anyone other than Oliveira as the current Lightweight champion. Makhachev, essentially regarded as Khabib-lite, brings a circus of fans that has elevated the bout to the standards one could deem a Do Bronx x Khabib showdown.
On the UFC 280 prelims, the featured preliminary involves Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady edging towards a Welterweight title shot. The division will be held up by a Leon Edwards-Kamaru Usman rematch, but the next-in-line could well rest upon a noteworthy performance by Muhammad or Brady.
Where/When is UFC 280 taking place:
October 22, 2022. Etihad Arena. Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
What time does UFC 280 start:
🇬🇧 UK: 3pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 9am
What channel is UFC 280 on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports Box Office / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
🚀 Preview: UFC Vegas 62 Predictions, Odds and Results: Grasso vs Araujo
💰 PI’s Recommended Fight: Pete Rodriguez vs Mike Jackson
Travel down the Pintsized rabbit hole:
🥊 UFC 280 Main Card | 🌟 UFC 280 Prelims | 📺 YouTube
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UFC 280 Picks & Odds
| UFC 280 Odds | UFC 280 Predictions |
|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira (+145) Islam Makhachev (-170) | Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev Prediction: Islam Makhachev Submission Round 3 |
| Aljamain Sterling (-175) T.J. Dillashaw (+150) | Aljamain Sterling vs T.J. Dillashaw Prediction: T.J. Dillashaw Decision |
| Petr Yan (-265) Sean O’Malley (+225) | Petr Yan vs Sean O’Malley Prediction: Petr Yan TKO Round 2 |
| Beneil Dariush (+160) Mateusz Gamrot (-190) | Beneil Dariush vs Mateusz Gamrot Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot Decision |
| Katlyn Chookagian (+170) Manon Fiorot (-200) | Katlyn Chookagian vs Manon Fiorot Prediction: Katlyn Chookagian Decision |
| Belal Muhammad (+120) Sean Brady (-140) | Belal Muhammad vs Sean Brady Prediction: Belal Muhammad Decision |
| Makhmud Muradov (+165) Caio Borralho (-195) | Makhmud Muradov vs Caio Borralho Prediction: Caio Borralho Decision |
| Volkan Oezdemir (+145) Nikita Krylov (-170) | Volkan Oezdemir vs Nikita Krylov Prediction: Volkan Oezdemir Decision |
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov (-165) Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (+140) | Nurmagomedov vs Omargadzhiev Prediction: Gadzhi Omargadzhiev Decision |
| Armen Petrosyan (-205) AJ Dobson (+175) | Armen Petrosyan vs AJ Dobson Prediction: Armen Petrosyan TKO Round 3 |
| Muhammad Mokaev (-850) Malcolm Gordon (+600) | Muhammad Mokaev vs Malcolm Gordon Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev Submission Round 1 |
| Lina Lansberg (+255) Karol Rosa (-305) | Lina Lansberg vs Karol Rosa Prediction: Karol Rosa Decision |
UFC 280: Main Event
Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev
Lightweight (155)
UFC Vacant Lightweight Championship
Charles Oliveira (33-8)
If Charles Oliveira wins on Saturday night, there is a reasonable call that the Brazilian is the greatest Lightweight in UFC history. Controversial, of course, but his career resurgence may well be the P4P best too. A major source of Oliveira’s success has been crafting an image of an ‘un-grapplable’ monster on the mat. Makhachev, an exceptional wrestler and grappler himself, will test Oliveira on the ground in a manner that previous title challengers were unwilling.
There is no hiding that Oliveira’s striking defence is still a major vulnerability on the feet. Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje all found success landing on Oliveira, but they were all unwilling to chase a stunned Oliveira to the mat. Arguably, Makhachev lacks the hands to catch Oliveira as cleanly. Do Bronx, however, is so ferociously aggressive on the feet to the extent that even Makhachev’s humble striking could find opportunities to exploit.
The blueprint for breaking Oliveira is already out. Paul Felder broke the Brazilian in his guard, while Ricardo Lamas was able to control the champ. Makhachev can claim ownership of the most consistent top game in the division since Khabib retired. Still, there is a level of creativity and dynamism to Oliveira’s grappling that will keep the Dagestani on his toes.
Islam Makhachev (22-1)
No matter how big of an Islam Makhachev fan you may be, it is difficult to boast about Makhachev’s recent run. Makhachev has comfortably handled the UFC mid-level competition but has never faced the quality of a Poirier or Gaethje. This isn’t a slight on Makhachev, the man has an extremely underrated win over Arman Tsarukyan, but rather a nod to the fact that Chucky represents a significant leap up in competition.
A lot has been said about Makhachev’s chin in the build-up. After all, the Dagestani was finished in the first round by the experienced yet limited, Adriano Martins. Sorry to dispel the conspiracy, but that was a relatively green Makhachev back in 2015. Since then, Makhachev’s striking has impressively developed to the point where he looks comfortable transitioning between offence and defence. Under the duress of Oliveira’s outrageous athleticism and high-risk style, however, it may struggle to adapt over extended layers.
Not that striking will feature much if Makhachev is hell-bent on taking the fight to the ground. The thirty-one-year-old is a ludicrously strong wrestler and should find Oliveira relatively willing to embrace a grappling war. Add in Makhachev’s exceptional gas tank, and don’t be surprised if we see Oliveira starting to fade physically and mentally by the championship rounds.
Oliveira vs Makhachev Prediction: Makhachev Submission Round 3
A lot has been said about Makhachev’s chin in the build-up. After all, the Dagestani was finished in the first round by the experienced yet limited, Adriano Martins. Under the duress of Oliveira’s outrageous athleticism and high-risk striking, Makhachev’s simplistic defence could struggle to adapt over subsequent layers. It just feels as though there won’t be much time for striking during this championship bout, however.
Islam Makhachev has proven himself an immaculate game planner over his career, leaving no doubts that he will be hell-bent on taking the fight to the ground. A ludicrous wrestler with an arsenal of takedowns, in addition to Oliveira willingly embracing a grappling war on the mat, will offer Makhachev the opportunity to implement his top game. Oliveira is a dynamic submission artist, but Makhachev very rarely makes mistakes on the ground. Considering Makhachev’s exceptional gas tank, it saddens me to foresee Oliveira fading physically and mentally by the championship rounds.
UFC 280: Co-Main Event
Aljamain Sterling vs T.J. Dillashaw
Bantamweight (135)
UFC Bantamweight Championship
Aljamain Sterling (21-3)
Got to give a man his flowers. Aljamain Sterling surprised everyone when he earned a well-earned split decision in the Petr Yan rematch. A similar level of grappling control would be insanely difficult to replicate against TJ Dillashaw, who has forged a career off the back of getting back to his feet. The Funk Master is a crafty striker, but he is unlikely to score a knockout in a similar manner as John Dodson or Henry Cejudo. Does Sterling have enough in the locker to keep Dillashaw off the bullying pressure game he deployed against Cory Sandhagen?
T.J. Dillashaw (17-4)
Although I will happily die on a hill defending Cory Sandhagen’s victory over TJ Dillashaw, the return of the roid head was still an exciting addition to a stacked division. As heavy a grappling approach is unlikely from Dillashaw, who is more likely to match the flash energy of Sterling on the feet. Dillashaw looked to have lost a physical step against Sandhagen, impacting his ability as a relentless volume striker. Defensively, however, Sterling is far more hittable. TJ will attempt to mix in his wrestling, but he must be wary of Sterling’s exceptional back-taking.
Sterling vs Dillashaw Prediction: Dillashaw Decision
Aljamain Sterling surprised everyone when he earned a well-earned split decision in the Petr Yan rematch. A similar level of grappling control would be insanely difficult to replicate against TJ Dillashaw. Important to note that Dillashaw looked to have lost a physical step against Sandhagen. It’s worth considering to what extent the athletic dropoff will affect the former champ’s ability to exert pressure. Even so, it feels like a stylistic match-up that Dillashaw can comfortably exploit – not withstanding Sterling latching on to his back early.
UFC 280: Main Card
Petr Yan vs Sean O’Malley
Bantamweight (135)
Petr Yan (16-3)
The heart suggests this could be an interesting striking battle between a pocket boxer and a long counter-striker. Unfortunately, the brain clears up the natural fan in me and realises this could be akin to sanctioned murder. Yan could chop trees with his leg kicks, let alone O’Malley’s biscuit legs that have fallen to Andre Soukhamthath and Marlon Vera. On the feet, Yan’s educated pressure will eventually find him in the pocket and piecing apart O’Malley. More likely, Yan opts for a safer grappling route and brutalises Sugar on the mat.
Sean O’Malley (15-1)
Sugar Sean has tried his whole career to forge an edgy fanbase, but it is the results in the octagon that truly matters at the end of the day. Not to harp on about O’Malley’s extended lead leg, but it is a glaring weakness that Yan simply cannot miss. O’Malley is a fast, accurate starter who can hit the button from the opening bell, but he lacks the one-shot knockout power to keep Yan humble on the outside. Sandhagen’s reach advantage isn’t too useful a comparison considering his penchant for body shots and work on the inside. Even then, O’Malley was incapable of maintaining an offensive output at range that slowed Kris Moutinho’s pressure.
Yan vs O’Malley Prediction: Yan TKO Round 2
Not to harp on about O’Malley’s extended lead leg, but it is a glaring weakness that Yan simply cannot miss. Even forgoing the leg kick, Yan’s educated pressure will eventually find him in the pocket and piecing apart O’Malley. O’Malley is a fast, accurate starter who can hit the button from the opening bell, but he lacks the one-shot knockout power to keep Yan humble on the outside. The Russian can always opt for the safer grappling route and brutalise Sugar on the mat.
Beneil Dariush vs Mateusz Gamrot
Lightweight (155)
Beneil Dariush (21-4-1)
It has been a year and a half since we last saw Beneil Dariush utterly dominate a faded Tony Ferguson. Sitting on a 7-fight streak, Dariush finds himself taking the high-risk low-reward return fight. Scratching beneath the glittering surface, however, reveals frequent sections of Dariush getting hurt. Dariush teeters on the edge of ‘wild’ striking which feels disastrous against one of the most composed fighters.
Mateusz Gamrot (21-1)
Gamrot earning a hard-fought decision over Arman Tsarukyan answered many of the questions that had lingered from his UFC debut loss to Guram Kutateladze. The Pole will be offered no time to settle into the fight against the extremely aggressive Dariush, but his exceptional chin should be able to keep him afloat. Gamrot is almost impossible to keep tied to the mat and will grow into the fight by the later rounds – owing to his freakish gas tank.
Darius vs Gamrot Prediction: Gamrot Decision
The Pole will be offered no time to settle into the fight against the extremely aggressive Dariush, but his exceptional chin should be able to keep him afloat. Gamrot has proved almost impossible to keep tied to the mat over his career but Dariush handled Diego Ferreira with surprising ease. This is an exceptionally balanced match-up, with Gamrot’s freakish gas tank and relentless takedowns offering the edge on the scorecards.
Katlyn Chookagian vs Manon Fiorot
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Katlyn Chookagian (18-4)
Will the UFC ever offer Katlyn Chookagian another shot at Valentina Shevchenko? It would be largely pointless, but the 125lb division is devoid of fresh challengers and Chookagian continues to clean up the top 10. Chookagian is a consistently accurate striker who comfortably out-works opponents without taking many risks.
Manon Fiorot (9-1)
Fiorot is a tricky customer on the feet owing to her size and southpaw stance, but Chookagian is a natural round winner in regard to output. The Frenchwoman will need to impose her strength in the clinch, but she may find it difficult to tie down her experienced opponent to one spot.
Chookagian vs Fiorot Prediction: Chookagian Decision
Chookagian is a consistently accurate striker who comfortably out-works opponents without taking many risks. While Fiorot is a tricky southpaw customer on the feet owing to her size, it’s difficult to write off Chookagian’s natural ability to gauge round-winning output. The Frenchwoman will need to impose her strength in the clinch, but she may find it difficult to tie down her experienced opponent to one spot.
UFC 280: Preliminary Card
Belal Muhammad vs Sean Brady
Welterweight (170)
Belal Muhammad (21-3)
Belal Muhammad solidified himself as one of the top Welterweights after the thorough domination of his previous foe, Vicente Luque. As spoken about earlier, the winner of this affair could hold the next Welterweight title shot, and it’s difficult to argue against Belal’s rights. The nature of Muhammad’s wins is drawn out over terrifyingly efficient (if dull) top control and surprisingly crisp (if paper-fisted) boxing. Belal, despite lacking elite athleticism, comes on strong late into fights – an area that Brady showed cracks in against Michael Chiesa.
Sean Brady (15-0)
Sean Brady is a highly dangerous grappler but there is a sneaking suspicion that the American has been pushed too early into his career. A phenomenal athlete, Brady will find himself at a technical gap against Belal. Brady could out-muscle and kill Muhammad with pace during the early rounds, even with the latter’s strong TDD, but it’s unlikely to break his vastly experienced foe.
Muhammad vs Brady Prediction: Muhammad Decision
Sean Brady is a highly dangerous grappler but there is a sneaking suspicion that the American has been pushed too early into his career. A phenomenal athlete, Brady will find himself at a technical gap against Belal. I’m expecting Brady to have success against Muhammad early through setting a strong pace, but it won’t be enough to break his vastly experienced foe – especially when you consider Belal’s 91% TDD.
Makhmud Muradov vs Caio Borralho
Middleweight (185)
Makhmud Muradov (25-7)
How has it been over a year since Gerald Meerschaert eye-poked his way back to a submission victory over Makhmud Muradov? The Tajikistani was touted as one of the hotter prospects at Middleweight before his (somewhat illegal) humbling. Muradov is a high-volume, combination striker that dances around the outside. Borralho is flying high on form but Muradov has killer speed and pop that could catch the Brazilian cold early.
Caio Borralho (12-1)
Caio Borralho has been one of the surprise packages since his DWCS victory in 2021. Borralho is a one-dimensional fighter who operates a slow-paced, single-shot output. Borralho lacks the defensive slickness needed to stay safe during the opening round, but his chin instead appears capable of carrying the load. As seen against Meerschaert, Muradov crumbles under sustained pressure and Borralho will eventually find the opportunity to shoot on his hips.
Muradov vs Borralho Prediction: Borralho Decision
Borralho is flying high on form but Muradov has killer speed and pop that could catch the Brazilian cold early. Borralho lacks the defensive slickness needed to stay safe during the opening round, but his chin instead appears capable of carrying the load. As seen against Meerschaert, Muradov crumbles under sustained pressure and Borralho will eventually find the opportunity to shoot.
Volkan Oezdemir vs Nikita Krylov
Light Heavyweight (205)
Volkan Oezdemir (18-6)
It wasn’t the most exciting win to snap his losing streak, but it was great to see Volkan Oezdemir return to the W column. Patient and calculated on the feet, Oezdemir utilises angles well and creates visibly awkward striking affairs for opponents. Krylov now operates as a sticky wrestler, but Oezdemir proved to be a tricky customer to takedown against the likes of Magomed Ankalaev and Aleksandar Rakic.
Nikita Krylov (28-9)
Old Krylov would have laid down an aggressive striking gameplan capable of breaking Oezdemir down the stretch. The modern wrestling-first approach of the Ukrainian is a snooze to watch but stands out in a dire division for talent.
Oezdemir vs Krylov Prediction: Oezdemir Decision
Krylov is easier to back as a busy kickboxer who is deadset on controlling opponents on the mat. Aside from the Daniel Cormier fight, Oezdemir has regularly proven to be a tricky customer to take down, such as against Magomed Ankalaev and Aleksandar Rakic. Oezdemir’s greater output and utilisation of angles should prove the edge on the feet as well.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
Welterweight (170)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov (16-3-1)
Khabib’s cousin, Abubakar, is best known for disappointing his bloodline after falling into a David Zawada triangle choke. Returning to the octagon after a year and a half, one can only hope that the Russian has ironed out his robotic stand-up. Peppering Jared Gooden’s head, as it stays on the centre line, is not indicative of improvement.
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (13-1)
Omargadzhiev isn’t as good as his record suggests. A hard-nosed wrestler, Omargadzhiev is lost at sea if he is unable to take his opponent to the mat. An inability to dominate Caio Borralho, a raw athletic talent, is a red flag for a fighter who enjoyed a considerable spell in the amateurs.
Nurmagomedov vs Omargadzhiev Prediction: Omargadzhiev Decision
Khabib’s cousin, Abubakar, is best known for disappointing his bloodline after falling into a David Zawada triangle choke. Abubakar showed another layer to his striking against Jared Gooden, but he will struggle to keep himself standing against Omargazhiev. Omargadzhiev is a massive physical specimen, not without technical flaws, but should be able to out-muscle Nurmagomedov early on.
Armen Petrosyan vs AJ Dobson
Middleweight (185)
Armen Petrosyan (6-2)
Armen Petrosyan’s debatable victory over Gregory Rodrigues continues to age like a fine wine. The slick Armenian striker may have hit a road bump against Caio Borralho, but he is consistently improving so early into his MMA career. Natural power and an entertaining array of knockout strikes leave Petrosyan as an easy marketing sell if he could find a 2022 highlight reel.
AJ Dobson (6-1)
After a fine showing on the DWCS series, AJ Dobson hit a hard ceiling against the technically superior Jacob Malkoun. The frightening violence in AJ Dobson’s game provides a base that can be refined, but his learning should still be on the regionals rather than the cut-throat UFC. It’s difficult to see Dobson holding down Petrosyan for long enough to scrape the rounds.
Petrosyan vs Dobson Prediction: Petrosyan TKO Round 3
The frightening violence in AJ Dobson’s game provides a base that can be refined, but his learning should still be on the regionals rather than the cut-throat UFC. Petrosyan is still largely a one-trick kickboxer, but he has shown great ability to work through adversity and stick to his preferred game plan.
Muhammad Mokaev vs Malcolm Gordon
Flyweight (125)
Muhammad Mokaev (7-0)
Fair play to the UFC for giving Mokaev the time to build his skillset at the bottom of Flyweight. The Dagestani-turned-Mancunian skyrocketed in fame after a one-minute debut victory over Cody Durden, before somewhat crashlanding after a stinker against Charles Johnson. The undefeated fighter is still erratic in his shot selection on the feet, but there is no denying his exceptional talent on the mat.
Malcolm Gordon (14-5)
Gordon is a glass cannon without the tricks on the feet to catch opponents often on the feet. As a result, the Canadian has adopted a crafty grappling game – but to chase it would be to fall into Mokaev’s preferred fight. A clear attempt by the UFC to set up a Mokaev highlight reel.
Mokaev vs Gordon Prediction: Mokaev Submission Round 1
Gordon is a glass cannon without the tricks on the feet to catch opponents often on the feet. As a result, the Canadian has adopted a crafty grappling game – but to chase it would be to fall into Mokaev’s preferred fight. Mokaev has been erratic on his feet over his two fights in the UFC, but he shouldn’t face much adversity when shooting against Gordon.
Lina Lansberg vs Karol Rosa
Women’s Bantamweight (135)
Lina Lansberg (10-6)
The Elbow Queen has not won a fight since 2019, having been pasted by both Sara McMann and Pannie Kianzad. Lansberg is a gritty, physical fighter but at 40 years old it just isn’t happening anymore.
Karol Rosa (15-4)
If Karol Rosa is out-wrestled by a twilight Lina Lansberg, the Brazilian may as well be cut. Lansberg is in for a long night of Rosa’s inexhaustible, rapid combinations. Accompanied by a strong chin, it would take a nightmare TDD blip for Rosa to lose this.
Lansberg vs Rosa Prediction: Rosa Decision
Lansberg is in for a long night of Rosa’s inexhaustible, rapid combinations. The Swede was once a tough, physical fighter but at 40 years old it just isn’t happening anymore. Chuck in Rosa’s strong chin and it would take a nightmare TDD blip for Rosa to lose this.
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