UFC 270 Predictions, Odds and Results: N’Gannou vs Gane

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UFC 270 Predictions, Odds and Results: N’Gannou vs Gane

Pintsized Background

It’s been a hell of a long time since there was a PPV card quite so top-heavy. Outside of the main and co-main, most of the interesting fights have been cancelled (least of all, Ilia Topuria pulling out with COVID). If N’Gannou and Gane engage in a five-round stinker, similar to N’Gannou vs Lewis, some fans may rightfully riot. Regardless, the UFC 270 predictions will follow a similarly top-heavy format.

Where/When is UFC 270 taking place:
January 22, 2022. Honda Center. California, United States.

What time does UFC 270 start:
🇬🇧 UK: 12pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 7pm

What channel is UFC 270 on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+

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🚀 Preview: UFC on ESPN 32 Predictions, Odds and Results: Kattar vs Chikadze
🔬 Review: MAFB: UFC on ESPN 32 Review
🔢 Scoring: MAFB Math: UFC on ESPN 32
🥊 PI’s Recommended Fight: Calvin Kattar vs Giga Chikadze

Travel down the Pintsized rabbit hole:

Not many men are capable of doing this to Stipe Miocic | UFC 270 Predictions
Not many men are capable of doing this to Stipe Miocic

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UFC 270: Main Event

Francis N’Gannou vs Ciryl Gane

Heavyweight (265)

UFC Heavyweight Championship

Francis N’Gannou (16-3)

It has been nine months since Francis N’Gannou starched Heavyweight champ, Stipe Miocic, in their highly anticipated rematch – and damn, the tape still shows the Cameroonian in a glittering light. A far cry from their first fight, N’Gannou respected Miocic and patiently controlled the centre of the octagon. Fighting behind a long jab, specifically targetting the body, Miocic was lost as he anticipated extensive head-hunting combinations.

Perhaps even scarier for most other Heavyweights, N’Gannou’s takedown defence was on point. Francis reversed Stipe’s takedown with one of his own, from where he pounded a scrambling Miocic in the clinch. How much the newfound wrestling will tax the gas tank is yet to be seen, however. Miocic II only went to the second round. N’Gannou’s bread and butter will remain explosive reactive counter-punching, and to catch Gane unaware, he will need to reserve some energy.

How will Gane cope with the pressure that N’Gannou exerts? Gane exudes class when he can control the range and pace of a fight, yet his lack of one-shot power will likely see him on the back-foot for the majority of this contest. Gane’s liquid bouncing footwork tends to slow by the championship rounds even when he has set the pace himself. Having to consistently fight on the back-foot, however, and Gane may present himself as a stationary target earlier than usual.

Ciryl Gane (10-0)

Will there ever be another elite athletic and technical freak in the Heavyweight? Ciryl Gane feels like a one of a kind fighter in regards to his technique. No other 265lber has so effortlessly disguised his offence behind a plethora of feints. Importantly, there always seems to be a plan behind Gane’s work, a ridiculous efficiency with a clear end goal in mind.

Can Gane knockout N’Gannou? Certainly, the polished kickboxer methodically broke down the durable Derrick Lewis. The likelihood is, however, that Gane has to find that stoppage late as a result of N’Gannou’s stamina troubles. The Predator has shown a stellar chin against Miocic twice while Gane often suffocates the finishing sequences of his own offence. Body kicks will be key to frustrating N’Gannou on the outside and will out-range N’Gannou’s recent preference for a slow-ish paced pressure jabbing affair.

Wrestling is a facet that few have placed much value on, especially because of N’Gannou’s tightened TDD in his last showing. It would be foolish to ignore Gane’s skills on the mat, but the overwhelming view is that the Frenchman shouldn’t risk anything that sees him closing the distance to N’Gannou. Perhaps too little stock has been placed on Ciryl’s chin itself, who could surprise many by taking a couple of N’Gannou’s bombs. Unfortunately, the Frenchman tends to eat far more shots than he needs to in pursuing his work. No matter how exchanges Gane wins in the early rounds, N’Gannou needs only one window of opportunity to cash in.

Predicted Result: N’Gannou TKO Round 3

I have to temper some expectations, this is still Heavyweight, this could easily be a stinker (before a finish emerges). Gane exudes class when he can control the range and pace of a fight, yet his lack of one-shot power will likely see him on the back-foot for the majority of this contest. The Frenchman tends to slow in the championship rounds, with extended back-foot fighting, Gane could slow even earlier. Compared to the hyper-efficient, low output pressure from N’Gannou, a more stationary Gane could be punished.

Wrestling is a facet that few have placed much value on, especially because of N’Gannou’s tightened TDD in his last showing. It would be foolish to ignore Gane’s skills on the mat, but the overwhelming view is that the Frenchman shouldn’t risk anything that sees him closing the distance to N’Gannou. Even when Gane sits on the outside, he still eats more shots than he needs – Alexander Volkov never looked confident against Gane yet still managed to sneak through 115 significant strikes. While Gane’s powerful kicking game could cause N’Gannou issues in the early rounds, the Cameroonian’s durability has never been challenged throughout the UFC. I’m siding with the Great Equaliser.

Result: N’Gannou def. Gane // Decision (unanimous – 48-47, 48-47, 49-46)

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

How will N'Gannou be able to cope with Gane's expansive kicking game | UFC 270 Predictions
How will N’Gannou be able to cope with Gane’s expansive kicking game

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UFC 270: Co-Main Event

Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Flyweight (125)

UFC Flyweight Championship

Brandon Moreno (19-5-2)

Trilogy time, baby! It’s difficult to see what Figgy to chance up to beat the Moreno that rocked up in their second bout. Full confidence in his chin, standing his ground to control the range, and outlast the 34yr old Brazilian who has to cut a hell of a lot of weight. Figgy has exceptional power in his hands, but it’s far easier to back Moreno’s chin holding up to the test once again.

Hopefully, if the trend continues from the last fight, Moreno will now fight far more consistently on the outside with his superior range. Gone are the days of Moreno falling into the ‘overhand into clinch’ type beat that plagues most fighters who aren’t deadset on their identity. Not that Moreno should neglect his wrestling. A wonderful timer on entries, Moreno has the ability to control opponents on the mat – especially Figueiredo whose submission record is largely padded off the back of rocking opponents prior.

Deiveson Figueiredo (20-2-1)

Figueiredo, even in defeat, still represents one of the scariest finishers at Flyweight. Insane power for 125lbs, Figgy tore up a four-fight streak on the back of his aggressive pursuit of finishes. Joseph Benavidez may have been weathered but Fig ran through the long-time title challenger with shocking ease. The Mexican’s chin may be inhuman so far, but the twenty-eight-year-old has clocked up freakish miles on the body and if there were a fighter to expose it – it would be Figgy.

The first two rounds will be key for Figueiredo, who will have to make his power count. Rather than roll the dice and chin test, Moreno, Figueiredo needs to put work into the body to patch over his own failing gas tank down the stretch. While the wild combinations at times are pivotal for Figueiredo catching opponents unaware, this isn’t the fight for lax fundamentals. Moreno’s wrestling threat could easily deny a fresh Figueiredo his best work in the opening rounds, before pouring out an unmatchable volume in the championship rounds.

Predicted Result: Moreno Submission Round 5

The first two rounds will be key for Figueiredo, who will have to make his power count. Rather than roll the dice and chin test, Moreno, Figueiredo needs to put work into the body to patch over his own failing gas tank down the stretch. Moreover, even considering the miles on Moreno’s body, it’s still far safer to back the Mexican’s durability than Figgy’s insane power.

While Figueiredo’s wild combinations at times are pivotal for catching opponents unaware, this isn’t the fight for lax fundamentals. Moreno’s wrestling threat could easily deny a fresh Figueiredo his best work in the opening rounds, before pouring out an unmatchable volume in the championship rounds. A decision victory for either man is probably more certain, but I expect an ageing Figueiredo to go out on his shield.

Result: Figueiredo def. Moreno // Decision (unanimous – 48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

Will Brandon Moreno defend his Flyweight title? | UFC 270 Predictions
Will Brandon Moreno defend his Flyweight title?

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UFC 270: Main Card

Michel Pereira vs Andre Fialho

Welterweight (170)

Michel Pereira (26-11)

I’m not sure I like this updated Michel Pereira 2.0. Gone are the days of backflips off cages and jumping, spinning octopus flails. Against Khaos Williams and Niko Price, Pereira adopted a more conservative, technical approach that has certainly benefited him. There are still giant defensive flaws, but his new style is designed to survive against Fialho in the first round and open up later down the line. Pereira still gassed by the third round against Niko Price, but it wasn’t as drastic a decline. I’m expecting Pereira’s powerful counters and work in the clinch to stop Fialho in his debut.

Andre Fialho (14-3)

Fighting out of Sanford MMA, the UFC debutant is no pushover. A huge first-round threat, Fialho has featured in a variety of promotions (Bellator, PFL, LFA), but is best known for his second-round knockout over a faded James Vick. Fialho can work behind his jab when it is necessary, but his core remains powerful punching off the front foot. The new fan favourite, Chris Curtis, exposed this one-dimensional game back in 2019 by making the necessary reads before countering and finishing Fialho. Additionally, Fialho’s defensive grappling isn’t at the level to deal with Pereira’s unorthodox clinch striking.

Predicted Result: Pereira TKO Round 2

There are still giant defensive flaws, but Pereira’s new style is designed to survive against Fialho in the first round and open up later down the line. A huge first-round threat, Fialho can work behind his jab when it is necessary, but his core remains powerful punching off the front foot. There is always the possibility that Pereira falls into his old, bad habits, but I’m backing his powerful counters and clinch striking to stop Fialho in his debut.

Result: Pereira def. Fialho // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Cody Stamann vs Said Nurmagomedov

Bantamweight (135)

Cody Stamann (19-4-1)

Stamann’s loss to Jimmie Rivera highlighted Spartan’s role as a gatekeeper for the top-fifteen. Stamann’s T-Rex arms fail to deliver much power, but his energy in the pocket is often enough to keep fighters unwilling to commit to extended combinations. Stamann’s main game is powerful wrestling, but he lacks the supreme control that Raoni Barcelos drew upon to beat Said Nurmangomedov. Even with Said’s potent striking, Stamann has a solid enough chin and gas tank to stall out the Russian against the cage and pick up an ugly decision win.

Said Nurmagomedov (14-2)

Said’s defensive wrestling will be tested to a somewhat similar degree as Raoni Barcelos. Stamann is far less likely to be able to control the fight as well as the Brazilian, yet Nurmagomedov will have to keep himself off the cage. It will be the defensive grappling against the cage that dictates this fight, as Nurmagomedov’s ability to get back to his feet is pretty solid. Regular calf kicks will frustrate Stamann from range, but Nurmagomedov’s hard counter hooks are the shots that will damage Stamann and prevent him from closing the distance with his typical flurries.

Predicted Result: Nurmagomedov Decision

Stamann’s main game is powerful wrestling, but he lacks the supreme control that Raoni Barcelos drew upon to beat Said Nurmangomedov. Even with Said’s potent striking, Stamann has a solid enough chin and gas tank to stall out the Russian against the cage and pick up an ugly decision win. Still, Nurmagomedov’s powerful counter striking and reach advantage should produce eye-catching work as long as he isn’t ground out.

Result: Nurmagomedov def. Stamann // Submission (guillotine choke) Round 1 0:47

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Michael Morales vs Trevin Giles

Welterweight (170)

Michael Morales (12-0)

DWCS prospect, Michael Morales, has a very tough ask against the underrated, Trevin Giles. A spritely twenty-two years old, the Ecuadorian is a hugely powerful striker who will enter Saturday as the natural Welterweight. Morales showed surprising control in the clinch against Nikolay Veretennikov but it was a snail-paced affair. Of concern is Morales’ issues on the back-foot, planting his feet and keeping his head on the centre-line. That isn’t to say that Morales can’t put it together, but this is a very tough fight for such a young, inexperienced fighter.

Trevin Giles (14-3)

Moving down from Middleweight to Welterweight is a huge technical upgrade, but Trevin Giles represents a polished wrestler who can cross that bridge. Of greater concern, however, is Giles’ athleticism which was underwhelming at Middleweight – sometimes gassing, often underpowered. While Morales carries heavy hands, his DWCS appearance showed nowhere near the striking quality needed to overcome Giles’ ramrod jab. This should be a clear cut victory with Giles’ extra size at the weight allowing him to bully Morales on the ground.

Predicted Result: Giles Submission Round 1

Morales showed surprising control in the clinch against Nikolay Veretennikov but it was a snail-paced affair. Of concern is Morales’ issues on the back-foot, planting his feet and keeping his head on the centre-line. Even with Trevin Giles moving down to Welterweight, Morales didn’t show the striking defence necessary to overcome Giles’ ramrod jab. This should be a clear cut victory with Giles’ extra size at the weight allowing him to bully Morales on the ground.

Result: Morales def. Giles // TKO (punches) Round 1 4:06

Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ✔️

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UFC 270: Preliminary Card

Raoni Barcelos vs Victor Henry

Bantamweight (135)

Raoni Barcelos (16-2)

So, Raoni Barcelos barely (BARELY) loses to Timur Valiev and now he is back to fighting newbies? Give this man a damn push. Barcelos isn’t getting any younger (34) and his skillset is somewhat based on his exceptional athleticism. An elite grappler, the hype behind Barcelos is largely around his dynamite power in his hands and exceptional timing. Barcelos can tire down the stretch, as he did against Valiev, but more often than not he will find the finish with a nuclear counter.

Victor Henry (21-5)

Henry has fought across a variety of promotions with differing levels of quality. There is certainly a spot on the roster for a fighter of Henry’s quality. It was only a couple of years ago that Henry beat Kyler Phillips – the Bantamweight who tore through Yadong Song this year. Henry’s activity in the clinch will make or break the newcomer against Barcelos. Committing to flurries of knees, Barcelos will either be overwhelmed early or punish Henry with his superior power differential. In a clean striking showdown, Henry’s tendency to kick on the inside will see Henry eat devastating counters.

Predicted Result: Barcelos TKO Round 2

There is certainly a spot on the roster for a fighter of Henry’s quality. It was only a couple of years ago that Henry beat Kyler Phillips. Unfortunately, for some strange reason, Raoni Barcelos has been held back as the man tasked to introduce Henry to the UFC. Henry is well-rounded and his activity in the clinch could cause Barcelos a few problems. Most likely, however, Henry’s tendency to kick on the inside will see Barcelos unload his dynamite power.

Result: Henry def. Barcelos // Decision (unanimous – 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Winner ❌ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

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Jack Della Maddalena vs Pete Rodriguez

Welterweight (170)

Jack Della Maddalena (10-2)

The UFC seems keen to push Aussie, Jack Della Maddalena, after his dominant decision on the DWCS. That is understandable, however, as Maddalena is a wonderful pressing pocket puncher who loves to bite into the gumshield. The Aussie appears to be an elite athlete that has the base from which can be polished into a solid name on the roster. Countering with volume, Maddalena should be trending on Twitter after this scrap.

Pete Rodriguez (4-0)

This isn’t a simple squash match if you were just spying the 4-0 record. Rodriguez racked up a 7-2 record in the amateurs too before transitioning to the professional ranks. Even then, Rodriguez will be up against it as he has never faced an elite athlete comparable to Maddalena. There is no doubting the firepower in Rodriguez’s hands, but the Aussie is far cuter with his pressure and presence in the pocket. Rodriguez could pull out an unorthodox strike, he has notched a flying knee finish before, but it isn’t the safest avenue to back.

Predicted Result: Maddalena TKO Round 1

This isn’t a simple squash match if you were just spying the 4-0 record. Rodriguez racked up a 7-2 record in the amateurs too before transitioning to the professional ranks. Even then, Rodriguez will be up against it as he has never faced an elite athlete comparable to Maddalena. Maddalena is a wonderful pressing pocket puncher who loves to bite into the gumshield, trade power and back his chin. Expect Twitter to blow up after this one.

Result: Maddalena def. Rodriguez // TKO (punches) Round 1 2:59

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

Return to Fight Card


Tony Gravely vs Saimon Oliveira

Bantamweight (135)

Tony Gravely (21-7)

Poor Tony Gravely. The American Top Team fighter dominated Nate Maness for the better part of two rounds before he walked on to a brutal right hook that switched off his lights. On the one hand, Gravely’s boxing looked as clean as it had ever, on the other, the wrestler paid the price for not fighting the most sensible fight. Whether that stoppage will change his approach or confidence on the feet, it is yet to be seen, but I expect Gravely to fall back into his brutal ground and pound against a come-forward Oliveira who offers ample opportunity for takedowns.

Saimon Oliveira (18-3)

Split-decision victor on the DWCS, Saimon Oliveira is a frenetic striker with several holes on the feet. Reserving himself to explosive single-shots, there is no educated pressure behind Oliveira’s forward momentum and often primes himself to walk onto hard counters – especially when he sluggishly turns himself into a spinning back fist. Oliveira’s top game is oppressive, yet his most threatening submissions are based around punishing sloppy takedowns.

Predicted Result: Gravely Decision

Tony Gravely should have the experience to identify the glaring holes in Oliveira’s game and grind out a decision victory. The DWCS prospect is a frenetic striker, pouring everything into explosive single-shots behind constant momentum. When Gravely fell in love with his hands against Nate Maness, he paid the price in the second round. Oliveira is a far sloppier striker, however, and will walk himself onto hard counters.

Result: Gravely def. Oliveira // Decision (unanimous – 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Winner ✔️ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

Return to Fight Card


Matt Frevola vs Genaro Valdez

Lightweight (155)

Matt Frevola (8-3-1)

Well, losing to Terrance McKinney in the first round was expected. That is just Frevola’s style. Solid across all areas, Frevola is a rugged fighter who adapts as the fight drags on. Targetting the body with kicks before shooting on their softened mid-rift, Frevola is a difficult fighter for opponents to predict in the octagon. If Frevola can get through a tumultuous opening round, he is surprisingly durable and his grappling superiority will be the clear difference.

Genaro Valdez (10-0)

Undefeated Mexican, Genaro Valdez, is a finisher that will be banking on securing an early flash KO. Over fifteen minutes, Valdez is far too aggressive and counter-able against a technically superior fighter as Matt Frevola. Valdez will be unlikely to overwhelm Frevola with his wrestling in a similar manner as the cans he fought on the regional scene.

Predicted Result: Frevola Decision

Undefeated Mexican, Genaro Valdez, is a finisher that will be banking on securing an early flash KO. Over fifteen minutes, Valdez is far too aggressive and counter-able against a technically superior fighter as Matt Frevola. Valdez will be unlikely to overwhelm Frevola with his wrestling in a similar manner as the cans he fought on the regional scene.

Result: Frevola def. Valdez // TKO (punches) Round 1 3:15

Winner ✔️ // Method ❌ // Round ❌

Return to Fight Card


Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Kay Hansen

Women’s Flyweight (125)

Jasmine Jasudavicius (6-1)

As the more natural Flyweight, Jasudavicius has to bank on snapping onto a body lock and controlling the pace of each round. Unfortunately, Jasudavicius’ robotic striking leaves her wide open for counters. Hansen doesn’t carry the sort of power to scare Jasudavicius, but the American is slick enough to maintain distance as seen during periods against Cory McKenna.

Kay Hansen (7-4)

Moving up to Flyweight after a decision loss to Cory McKenna last time out, Kay Hansen is still a fine prospect at 22yrs old. Both women are willing strikers that will be happy to meet each other in the middle. Still, this is Women’s Flyweight so it is likely that it will transition to the cage from where Hansen has a solid clinch game. Based on Hansen’s sharper hands and ability to actually slip the odd punch, Hansen should be able to overcome the physical gap.

Predicted Result: Hansen Decision

Moving up to Flyweight after a decision loss to Cory McKenna last time out, Kay Hansen is still a fine prospect at 22yrs old. Jasudavicius has to bank on snapping onto a body lock and controlling the pace of each round. While the Canadian is a willing striker, it lacks fluidity and Hansen has proven herself capable of sticking and moving during periods of fights. Based on Hansen’s sharper hands and ability to actually slip the odd punch, Hansen should be able to overcome the physical gap.

Result: Jasudavicius def. Hansen // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Winner ❌ // Method ✔️ // Round ✔️

Return to Fight Card


Prediction Accuracy

UFC 270

Winner: 6/10

Method: 3/10

Round: 4/10

2022 MMA Season

Winner: 16/20

Method: 9/20

Round: 10/20

MMA Overall

Winner: 512/812

Method: 372/812

Round: 335/812

Takeaway comments: Fourth fight between Figgy and Moreno coming up!


TIPPING JAR

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