Sean O’Malley prepares to make his first defence of his UFC bantamweight title, facing long-time rival Marlon Vera, in the UFC 299 headline event at the Kaseya Center in Miami, USA this Saturday. The champion is in search of revenge following his first-round TKO loss to Vera back in August 2020.
The UFC have pulled out all the stops for this weekend’s pay-per-view, stacking the main card and prelims with star power. Fan favourite, Dustin Poirier, takes on rising lightweight prospect Benoit Saint-Denis in a bout that promises fireworks on the feet. Better yet, highlight reel sensation, Michael Venom Page, makes his eagerly anticipated promotional debut against a similarly stylish striker in Kevin Holland.
Strap in for our Pintsized Predictions for every fight taking place this Saturday.
Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera
Sean O’Malley’s path to the title has a fairy-tale feel to it. The 29-year-old is just the second fighter to have clinched a UFC title after signing to the promotion through Dana White’s Contender Series (Jamahal Hill secured the light heavyweight title before him). While the social media star has been the beneficiary of kind match-making throughout his career, he underlined his elite credentials in a split decision win over Petr Yan in 2022. Over the course of a gruelling five-round affair, O’Malley showcased layers to his striking that bamboozled one of the division’s craftiest fighters.
Of course, the red flag remains over O’Malley’s susceptibility to leg kicks. Despite his team recently declaring that Suga’s capitulation to Marlon Vera in 2020 stemmed from tight ankle wraps, this must be taken with a pinch of salt. O’Malley’s lead leg had been compromised two years earlier by Andre Soukhamthath, who bizarrely opted to wrestle an incapacitated O’Malley, rather than accept a certain win on the feet. Chito has only added more tools to his striking arsenal since beating the champion and will surely have devised a calf-kick heavy game plan for the weekend.
Unfortunately for Vera, his lack of volume will likely be his downfall. The Ecuadorian struggles to lead a fight and instead digs deep to find single defining strikes across rounds. Dominick Cruz, Rob Font, and Cory Sandhagen all enjoyed rich periods of success against Vera, but only Sandhagen was able to avoid Vera’s occasional concussive blow. O’Malley is too slick these days to be caught into Vera’s traps.
O’Malley vs Vera Prediction: O’Malley Decision
Dustin Poirier vs Benoit Saint-Denis
Mr Fight of the Night, Dustin Poirier, returns in a co-main banger of a bout with former French Special Forces Benoit Saint-Denis. Poirier returns to the octagon just eight months after his devastating head kick knockout loss to Justin Gaethje at UFC 291. The Diamond has endured three wars over 2021-2023 and he will likely continue the trend on Saturday against an opponent who knows nothing other than violence.
Poirier’s success against Conor McGregor stemmed from his unorthodox guard which allows him to counter effectively in the pocket. At 35-years-old, however, his waning athleticism is seeing him eat more damage than he used to. It is a worrying sign when pitted against a fighter who has never seen the scorecards across any of his 13 professional wins. The God of War finds success on the feet when opponent’s respect his submission threat – an area that Poirier is unlikely to be fearful of. I expect a repeat of Elizeu Zaleski’s three-round beatdown of the technically limited Frenchman.
Poirier vs Saint-Denis Prediction: Poirier Decision
Kevin Holland vs Michael Page
The UFC must be credited with a shrewd piece of match-making by having perennial gatekeeper Kevin Holland welcome Michael Venom Page to the organisation. If Page convincingly silences Holland, he will have earned enough fanfare to follow an Alex Pereira-pathway into a sudden title shot. A loss, as Pintsized expects, would illustrate the strength of the UFC’s roster compared to promotional rivals.
Don’t be surprised if Page opts to panic wrestle when his chaotic striking fails to make an impact. He adopted a similar strategy in his rematch with Douglas Lima and against Paul Daley. Holland’s submissions are severely underrated and should surprise Page on the mat.
Holland vs Page Prediction: Holland Submission Round 2
Gilbert Burns vs Jack Della Maddalena
Is Gilbert Burns finished as a welterweight contender? A loss to Jack Della Maddalena on Friday would all but reduce him to a top-10 gatekeeper role. It’s a sad state of affairs for the 37-year-old who has never managed to piece together his skillset at the highest level. While the Brazilian can still crack, he would be advised to avoid Maddalena’s ferocious pocket punching at all costs.
Instead, Burns could exploit Maddalena’s limitations off his back. The Aussie struggled against promotional newcomer, Bassil Hafez, who launched 20 takedowns across their three round fight. Although Maddalena exhibited exceptional TDD in denying 17 takedowns, he was eventually wore down through attrition and looked lost at times on the mat.
Burns vs Maddalena Prediction: Maddalena Decision
Petr Yan vs Yadong Song
Three losses on the bounce has left Petr Yan on the brink on an unforeseen exit from the UFC. Nearly four years on from clinching the vacant UFC bantamweight title, the hype train behind his five-round beatdown of Jose Aldo has stopped dead in its tracks. The Russian was unfortunate not to receive the nod against Sean O’Malley, and while he remains a fabulously well-rounded fighter, he will feel the pressure ahead of Saturday’s contest.
There will be no such feeling from Yadong Song‘s camp on fight night. The Team Alpha Male prodigee has found his midas touch over recent years, stopping three of his last five opponents. While the 26-year-old has benefited from his recent power punching to climb the rankings, it will also prove his downfall. Cory Sandhagen was pushed to the brink in their main event scrap, but his ability to vary his striking tempo saw him edge Song before the fight ended via doctor’s stoppage. Yan is a far more polished boxer and will counter Song effectively throughout the night.
Yan vs Song Prediction: Yan Decision
Preliminary Undercard
Curtis Blaydes vs Jailton Almeida Prediction: Blaydes TKO Round 3
Katlyn Cerminara vs Maycee Barber Prediction: Cerminara Decision
Mateusz Gamrot vs Rafael dos Anjos Prediction: Gamrot Decision
Pedro Munhoz vs Kyler Phillips Prediction: Phillips Decision
Michel Pereira vs Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction: Pereira Submission Round 2
Philipe Lins vs Ion Cutelaba Prediction: Lins Submission Round 2
Robelis Despaigne vs Josh Parisian Prediction: Despaigne TKO Round 1
CJ Vergara vs Asu Almabaev Prediction: Almabaev Decision
Joanne Wood vs Maryna Moroz Prediction: Moroz Decision
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