As the engineering circus that is Formula 1 2024 prepares to kick into eighth gear ahead of the year’s first race weekend in Bahrain, all eyes are centred on the sand swept deserts of Sakhir to see which teams can convert a promising pre season test into a bonified championship relevant result. As ever, there will be winners and losers from last year’s development cycle, so join us as we survey the grid and lay down some predictions.
FYI – our predictions are based on what the teams decided to reveal in pre-season, which as you may expect, was very little.
Battle at the front (or lack of…)
Redbull’s shiny new RB20 is a complete aerodynamic revolution on their all conquering RB19, a car that has caught the world’s media by surprise. Additions which include a never-seen-before in-cockpit cooling inlets, aggressive cutaway rear floor and undercut half sidepods has moulded the car’s appearance into that of a fighter – and it doesn’t take Tom Cruise to see that it is the most impressive looking package on the grid.
The data from pre season compounds the aesthetic. Max Verstappen’s long run times produced stunning results with 20 laps within a tenth of each other, albeit on using a suspected reduced engine mode. This inevitably sparked clickbait headlines of a car with zero tyre degradation, and while this is impossible, the stats don’t lie. The Verstappen/RB20 axis is the one to beat this weekend, and I don’t expect to see it beaten.
Midfield Madness
The midfield is shaping up to pick up where the F1 left us in Abu Dhabi before Christmas. McLaren’s strong season finish last year has been met with contrasting results after pre season. Surrey’s finest, Lando Norris, currently cuts a glum figure in the backdrop of the team’s claims that they are happy with the progress that has been made.
Visa Cash App RB Racing Bulls (I know, it’s awful) look to have made the biggest step forward, having closed the distance in design to parent team Red Bull. Their car has aerodynamically shifted towards the philosophy of last year’s RB19, meaning the now-experienced partnership of Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo are now in the mix for good point scoring positions. Likewise, Aston Martin are also tipped to have made progress, meaning this could be a team battle to watch.
The biggest losers appear to be Alpine. Last year’s fourth place team have declined, relative to competitors, with lacklustre performances in the pre season. Alpine will need the driver partnership par excellence of Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon to drag every millisecond of performance out of that car.
Rear Enders
No one wants to be a backmarker, but the rear of the grid is bubbling nicely. Williams look to have excelled under the cutting edge stewardship of ex-Mercedes lead strategist James Vowles and lead driver Alexander Albon. Expect the British outfit to challenge for the last of the points and not in the battle at the back.
Kick Sauber have one of the most likeable driver partnerships on the grid, including multi race winner Valtteri Bottas. Unfortunately, their car appears to be a stop gap, as the organisation prepares for German giants Audi to complete the full takeover of the team in 2026. As such, expect to see them toiling at the back with long suffering American outfit HAAS. While the latter’s new leadership has tempered expectations by outwardly expecting a poor start to 2024, their car looks a different formula to front runners Red Bull, Ferarri, and Mercedes. Miracles will be needed for HAAS to toy with points this weekend.
Predicted Performance Table
- Redbull
- Ferrari
- Mercedes
- Aston Martin
- Racing Bulls
- McLaren
- Alpine
- Williams
- Sauber
- HAAS
Teammate Battle Predictions
- MAX VERSTAPPEN / Sergio Perez
- CHARLES LECLERC / Carlos Sainz
- LEWIS HAMILTON / George Russell
- FERNANDO ALONSO / Lance Stroll
- DANIEL RICCIARDO / Yuki Tsunoda
- LANDO NORRIS / Oscar Piastri
- ESTEBAN OCON / Pierre Gasly
- ALEXANDER ALBON / Logan Sargeant
- VALTERI BOTTAS / Guanyu Zhou
- NICO HULKENBERG / Kevin Magnussen
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