Burns vs Wonderboy Analysis and Prediction

Gilbert Burns (19-4) vs Stephen Thompson (16-4-1)

Welterweight (170)

Gilbert Burns

A growing fan favourite, Burns is extremely dangerous due to his speed and power. Low kicks are a key weapon of Burns’ arsenal and a vital factor in this bout. If Burns can stay patient in the centre of the octagon, forcing Thompson to initiate exchanges, he can chop away with gruesome leg kicks. By slowing Wonderboy’s liquid footwork early, it will make the cage cutting far less taxing during the championship rounds. Unfortunately for Burns, he visibly declines after the first round. A power-first approach burns his gas tank and could leave him a sitting duck against the breathless volume of Wonderboy. Moreover, Burns’ tendency to throw blind kicks will allow Wonderboy to land hard counters in a similar vein to Usman.

Worse yet, Burns’ is susceptible to be being pieced up by jabs. A stoic mover of the head, Burns’ can be regularly caught with a snappy jab. Still, with a long background in BJJ, Burns’ groundwork is certainly of note. If Thompson ends up on his back for an extended period, the likelihood of a Burns submission is high. Unfortunately, Burns’ lacks the wrestling needed to overcome Thompson and is fairly reliant on a knockdown to take this to the mat.

Stephen Thompson

After the Pettis KO, Wonderboy has looked nigh-on unbeatable. Enduring a patchy 2016-2019 where the Karate King secured only one victory in five fights, Thompson still shone in all of his defeats. Sniping with lunging attacks, Wonderboy breaks opponents over time while keeping fights standing with his exceptional TDD. A master of controlling distance and angles, Wonderboy changes entry by mere inches to fire shots through an opponent’s guard.

If there were ever a fighter who deserved another title shot, it would be the NMF. Technically polished on the outside, Thompson bleeds opponents with sidekicks and jabs, before landing simple but lightning-fast boxing combinations. Although vulnerable against the cage, and when forced to trade in the pocket for extended periods, Thompson is impossible to root without peppering his legs. Pressuring Wonderboy is a soul-destroying yet necessary tactic. After cutting off the cage, Wonderboy is durable and defensively slick enough to spot an exit to reset himself in the centre.

Predicted Result: Wonderboy Decision

If there were ever a fighter who deserved another title shot, it would be the NMF. Technically polished on the outside, Thompson bleeds opponents with sidekicks and jabs, before landing simple but lightning-fast boxing combinations. A master of controlling distance and angles, Wonderboy changes entry by mere inches to fire shots through an opponent’s guard.

Burns is a live dog in this affair, especially when considering his freakish power and affinity for burning hot starts. The Brazilian’s chopping low kick also offers a counter to Thompson’s liquid footwork. The visible decline in Burns’ output past the first round, however, could leave him a sitting duck. More so when considering Burns’ lack of head movement and often blind power shots. While Burns’ BJJ remains a factor, his wrestling isn’t on a level to threaten Wonderboy and is reliant on a knockdown to take this to the ground.

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