UFC Vegas 64 Main Card Predictions, Odds and Results: Rodriguez vs Lemos
UFC Vegas 64 Main Card Pintsized Background
Well, UFC Vegas 64 may be the most cursed card of the year. A record-tying four fighters missed weight on the scales: Grant Dawson, Benito Lopez, Carlos Candelario and Ramona Pascual. Losing Bryce Mitchell and Movsar Evloev as the Main Event is a sad state of affairs, but there’s still lots to talk about for UFC Vegas 64 Predictions.
UFC Vegas 64’s new headliner involves a Women’s Strawweight top-contender bout between Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos. The co-main, Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez, appears far more alluring. Magny finds himself in career decline while Daniel Rodriguez needs a statement win to earn himself the big-name fights.
Where/When is UFC Vegas 64 Main Card taking place:
November 5, 2022. UFC Apex. Nevada, United States.
What time does UFC Vegas 64 Main Card start:
🇬🇧 UK: 11pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 6pm
What channel is UFC Vegas 64 Main Card on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
🚀 Preview: UFC Vegas 63 Predictions, Odds and Results: Kattar vs Allen
💰 PI’s Recommended Fight: Roman Dolidze vs Phil Hawes
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🥊 UFC Vegas 64 Full Card | 🌟 UFC Vegas 64 Prelims | 📺 YouTube
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UFC Vegas 64 Main Card Picks & Odds
| UFC Vegas 64 Main Card Odds | UFC Vegas 64 Main Card Predictions |
|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos Odds: (-225) / (+190) | Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos Prediction: Marina Rodriguez Decision |
| Neil Magny vs Daniel Rodriguez Odds: (-120) / (+100) | Neil Magny vs Daniel Rodriguez Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez Decision |
| Josh Parisian vs Chase Sherman Odds: (+125) / (-145) | Josh Parisian vs Chase Sherman Prediction: Chase Sherman TKO Round 1 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov vs Nate Maness Odds: (-225) / (+190) | Tagir Ulanbekov vs Nate Maness Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov Decision |
| Mark Madsen vs Grant Dawson Odds: (+180) / (-210) | Mark Madsen vs Grant Dawson Prediction: Grant Dawson Decision |
UFC Vegas 64: Main Event
Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2)
Marina Rodriguez remains a flawed fighter – not least her shoddy TDD and lack of boxing fundamentals. Losing periods of a striking affair to Yan Xiaonan is a huge red flag, even if Rodriguez was able to hard-nose her way to victory back in March 2022. The Brazilian’s greatest success stems from her relentless pressure and willingness to eat shots to close distance.
In fairness to Rodriguez, her physical stature and powerful kicks often paper over the cracks in her game. Considering Amanda Lemos has proven so easy to hit in the UFC, Rodriguez’s chin and weapons across ranges lead into her preferred gritty fight.
Amanda Lemos (12-2-1)
Amanda Lemos may eat more shots than Marina Rodriguez, but the former’s plus power is the perfect equaliser to such a problem. Against Michelle Waterson, Lemos showed improvements to her timing and shot selection on the counter.
There remain issues with balance and falling into her shots, however, which leaves Lemos stranded and so hittable. Lemos also tends to fade late into contests, lacking the tools to keep Rodriguez off of her in the championship rounds.
Rodriguez vs Lemos Prediction: Rodriguez Decision
Both Amanda Lemos and Marina Rodriguez eat a hell of a lot of damage, but the former’s plus power is the perfect equaliser to such a problem. Against Michelle Waterson, in fairness to Lemos, she showed improvements to her timing and shot selection on the counter. It’s hard to believe that Lemos’ power and athletic edge will catch Rodriguez early by surprise, however. Rodriguez’s chin is top quality, while her relentless pressure and solid gas tank will likely force Lemos to unravel on the feet by the championship rounds.
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UFC Vegas 64: Co-Main Event
Neil Magny vs Daniel Rodriguez
Welterweight (170)
Neil Magny (26-9)
Neil Magny’s loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov may be the first indication of a brutal physical slide. The Haitian Sensation is exceptionally well-rounded, smartly using his long frame to dictate fights through his jab on the outside and size in the clinch. Magny’s greatest success has been his ability to adapt deep into fights, an area that Rodriguez flagged in during his last time out (granted, well above his normal fighting weight). The destruction against Rakhmonov, however, spoke as much to the Kazakh’s quality as it did to Magny’s waning ability at the top level.
Daniel Rodriguez (17-2)
It’s perhaps best to ignore Daniel Rodriguez’s last fight, owing to its truly last-minute rearrangement and unnatural weight class. The fight failed to answer questions we already knew of D-Rod anyway – he is a crafty boxer with exceptional timing and a consistent volume at range. Magny is the perfect test to see if Rodriguez can deal with Magny’s stifling clinch game, or better yet if he can punish Magny’s jab in a similar manner as Max Griffin.
Magny vs Rodriguez Prediction: Rodriguez Decision
The Haitian Sensation is exceptionally well-rounded, smartly using his long frame to dictate fights through his jab on the outside and size in the clinch. Magny’s greatest success has been his ability to adapt deep into fights, but there is a worry that we witnessed the start of a physical slide against Shavkat Rakhmonov. D-Rod is a crafty boxer with exceptional timing and a consistent volume at range, but the test will be whether Rodriguez can handle Magny’s stifling clinch game.
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UFC Vegas 64: Main Card
Josh Parisian vs Chase Sherman
Heavyweight (265)
Josh Parisian (15-5)
Josh Parisian almost managed to lose a stylistic dream fight against Alan Baudot. Parisian was peppered on the feet by Baudot, as expected, but being dropped by the vastly undersized Frenchman provided a shocking red flag. Parisian’s wrestling threat is once again tailor-made to break a mentally fragile Chase Sherman on the mat, but the former’s striking pitfalls are too glaring to overlook.
Chase Sherman (16-10)
Mr hot-and-cold finally earned himself a morale-boosting victory over Jared Vanderaa. Granted, Vanderaa is a true bottom-of-the-barrel fighter, but The Vanilla Gorilla at least looked willing to fight. Sherman still looks unable to utilise his power effectively, but technically, he is leaps and bounds ahead of Parisian.
Parisian vs Sherman Prediction: Sherman TKO Round 2
The safest call is to back Josh Parisian gritting out a decision over a notoriously fragile fighter in Chase Sherman. Parisian’s wrestling threat is tailor-made to grind out Sherman mentally on the mat, but the former’s lack of any technical skill is too glaring to overlook. Alternatively, you could point towards Sherman’s inability to utilise his power effectively. Who knows, who cares type of fight?
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Tagir Ulanbekov vs Nate Maness
Flyweight (125)
Tagir Ulanbekov (13-2)
Ulanbekov is a ferocious early-round threat who operates off the back of his relentless wrestling and racking up insurmountable control time. Ulanbekov met an equally dynamic ground threat in Tim Elliot, but few other Flyweights are so willing to engage on the mat as Elliot. Athletically, Ulanbekov is limited, but he owns a sharp boxing game that appears to be developing over his UFC tenure.
Nate Maness (14-2)
Nate Maness remains a constant powerful threat throughout a fight, whilst also owning a granite chin to wait for the prime opportunity. Unfortunately, Maness can often reach the final bell never having found the perfect time to land as he lacks functional range striking. Maness is slick in the pocket with surprising pop, but he can be kept at bay on the outside with slick enough footwork and volume.
Ulanbekov vs Maness Prediction: Ulanbekov Decision
Nate Maness remains a constant powerful threat throughout a fight, whilst also owning a granite chin to wait for the prime opportunity. Mayhem is also slick in the pocket with surprising pop, but he can be kept at bay on the outside with slick enough footwork and volume. Ulanbekov lacks the athletic gifts of Umar Nurmagomedov, yet his sharp boxing skillset and relentless wrestling are tools that can keep the Dagestani safe from Maness’ greatest weapons.
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Mark Madsen vs Grant Dawson
Lightweight (155)
Mark Madsen (12-0)
The Olympian is a powerhouse wrestler, backed up by his Olympic silver medal, who has likely transitioned to MMA a little too late in his career. Conditioning issues often plague the Dane during the final rounds, although smarter decision-making saw Madsen dominate the third round against Vinc Pichel last time out.
Grant Dawson (18-1-1)
For all of the wrestling ability of Grant Dawson, the American has fallen in love with his hands over recent years. There’s a fair amount of power to be found, but his boxing still largely clings to Dawson’s plus athleticism rather than any technical points of note.
Madsen vs Dawson Prediction: Dawson Decision
For all of the wrestling ability of Grant Dawson, the American has fallen in love with his hands over recent years. There’s a fair amount of power to be found, but his boxing still largely clings to Dawson’s plus athleticism rather than any technical points of note. Meanwhile, Madsen offers equally potent wrestling, yet struggles to utilise his mediocre gas tank across the three rounds. Backing Dawson to better stamp his mark on what should be equally contested rounds.
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