UFC Vegas 57 Main Card Predictions: Tsarukyan vs Gamrot

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UFC Vegas 57 Main Card Predictions: Tsarukyan vs Gamrot

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What’s that? A richly deserved exciting main event between two of the most underrated Lightweights in the business? Entering the UFC Apex, Las Vegas are two potential future champions in Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot.

Don’t neglect the co-main event, however, with Neil Magny and Shavkat Rakhmonov locking horns in a perfect crossroads affair. The Haitian Sensation has stumbled around the past couple of years, but it wasn’t that long ago the towering Welterweight was smothering Carlos Condit, Jingliang Li and Robbie Lawler. Rakhmonov will be looking to extend his impressive UFC stint to four back-to-back finishes.

Where/When is UFC Vegas 57 taking place: June 25, 2022. UFC Apex. Nevada, US.

What time does UFC Vegas 57 start: 🇬🇧 UK: 11PM / 🇺🇸 US ET: 7pm

What channel is UFC Vegas 57 on: 🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+

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Mateusz Gamrot is criminally based | UFC Vegas 57 Predictions
Mateusz Gamrot is criminally based

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UFC Vegas 57 Main Card Picks & Odds

UFC Vegas 57 Main Card Fights & OddsWinnerMethodRound
Arman Tsarukyan (-255)
Mateusz Gamrot (+215)
TsarukyanDecision/
Neil Magny (+300)
Shavkat Rakhmonov (-365)
MagnyDecision/
Alan Baudot (-120)
Josh Parisian (+100)
ParisianTKO2
Christos Giagos (+195)
Thiago Moises (-230)
MoisesDecision/
Nate Maness (+600)
Umar Nurmagomedov (-850)
NurmagomedovSubmission1
Chris Curtis (-155)
Rodolfo Vieira (+135)
CurtisTKO2
Odds are based on BestFightOdds.com. All odds of 21 June 2022.

UFC Vegas 57 Main Card: Main Event

Armen Tsarukyan vs Mateusz Gamrot

Lightweight (155)

Arman Tsarukyan (18-2)

Tsarukyan has been a burning prospect since his very respectable debut loss to Islam Makhachev. Mahachev was already well regarded as a feared grappler, with few critics expecting Tsarukyan to offer much outside of survival. Oh, how wrong they were.

The Armenian owns a lethal top game that continues to take strides in each successive victory. The twenty-five-year-old has been offered no help by the UFC matchmakers on his way to the top. It’s all the more impressive that Tsarukyan wracked up eight minutes of control time a piece against the likes of Matt Frevola and Olivier Aubin-Mercier.

Tsarukyan’s pressure on the feet is of particular interest. By far the more dynamic stand-up fighter, Gamrot will be forced to surrender the centre of the octagon. The Pole will continue to shoot frequent takedowns but will be denied healthy space for effective wrestling. Don’t be surprised if Tsarukyan’s left hook, his money shot, wobbles Gamrot.

Mateusz Gamrot (20-1)

After years of hardcore MMA fans worshipping the ground that Mateusz Gamrot walks upon, they swiftly sobered by a muted debut performance against Guram Kutateladze. Granted, Gamrot could have been given the nod of the night and Kutateladze has proven himself far better than previously anticipated. Debut losses can derail a hype train before it even sets off, however, so the Pole’s three-finish streak has to be credited.

Much of the Polish lightweight’s success stems from his powerful wrestling base. Often timed to perfection, Gamrot is simple yet efficient in his work. Constant bobbing level changes on the feet, before sneaking in a single leg off a lunging straight. Jeremy Stephens is a vastly experienced veteran, but even Lil Heathen was bamboozled early by the speed of Gamrot’s takedowns.

A major concern that continues to arise in each fight is Gamrot’s tendency to back up on a straight line. Diego Ferreira is one of the tamer strikers in the division, yet the Brazilian’s short bursts saw Gamrot keep his head on the centre-line whilst failing to move laterally. Tsarukyan packs a far more spiteful punch and could punish Gamrot’s defensive deficiencies after the initial striking layers.

Predicted Result: Tsarukyan Decision

Much of the Polish lightweight’s success stems from his powerful wrestling base. Often timed to perfection, Gamrot is simple yet efficient in his work. Constant bobbing level changes on the feet, before sneaking in a single leg off a lunging straight. Tsarukyan’s pressure on the feet will deny Gamrot space in the octagon, but regular shots will still be attempted.

A major concern that plagues Gamrot is his tendency to back up on a straight line. Diego Ferreira is one of the tamer strikers in the division, yet the Brazilian’s short bursts saw Gamrot keep his head on the centre-line. Don’t be surprised if Tsarukyan’s left hook, his money shot, wobbles Gamrot. This should be a fascinating affair over five rounds, which may rely on whether Gamrot can neutralise Tsarukyan’s pressure.

Armen Tsarukyan or Mateusz Gamrot, either way, the loser is gonna break my heart | UFC Vegas 57 Predictions
Armen Tsarukyan or Mateusz Gamrot, either way, the loser is gonna break my heart

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UFC Vegas 57 Main Card: Co-Main Event

Neil Magny vs Shavkat Rakhmonov

Welterweight (170)

Neil Magny (26-8)

The Haitian Sensation may not be a walking highlight reel, but there’s a lot to like with the veteran. Magny’s freakish frame provides a constant mountain for opponents to climb. Finally using his jab to better effect to maintain distance, Magny’s best use of his size is to stifle opponents in the clinch. Unfortunately, Rakhmonov owns the fundamentals necessary to battle inside of Magny’s reach and pick holes in the American’s porous defence.

Shavkat Rakhmonov (15-0)

Somewhat rivalling Magny’s size, Rakhmonov enters the octagon immediately taking away one of Magny’s key weapons. Magny has proven time again that he can dig deep, while the Kazakh fighter is still an unproven product late in fights against the likes of Magny’s disgustingly swarmy, neutralising clinch game. If Rakhmonov enters the fight hoping to reactively adapt to Magny, as it appears he has opted for over his short UFC career, he will find himself lulled into a dull-paced, uncomfortable affair.

Predicted Result: Magny Decision

Somewhat rivalling Magny’s size, Rakhmonov enters the octagon immediately taking away one of Magny’s key weapons. Magny has proven time again that he can dig deep, while the Kazakh fighter is still an unproven product late in fights against the likes of Magny’s disgustingly swarmy, neutralising clinch game. Rakhmonov certainly owns the fundamentals to get inside of Magny’s reach and pick holes in the American’s defence. Seems foolish to pick a man wobbled by Max Griffin, but Magny is a true litmus paper test for Rakhmonov.

Neil Magny's incredible reach could not be more clearly exhibited than against Robbie Lawler | UFC Vegas 57 Predictions
Neil Magny’s incredible reach could not be more clearly exhibited than against Robbie Lawler

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UFC Vegas 57 Main Card

Josh Parisian vs Alan Baudot

Heavyweight (265)

Josh Parisian (14-5)

Goodness, gracious. A man who was cut apart by Don’Tale Mayes, FROM CRUCIFIX, features two fights away from the headliner? Parisian may have a string of first-round knockouts in the regionals, but that power has been almost non-existent in the UFC. The Michigan fighter is tough and the far more natural Heavyweight than Alan Baudot, but the praise ends there.

Alan Baudot (8-3)

For an overblown Light Heavyweight, the Black Samourai is an exciting striker to watch. Dynamic with intercepting elbows, Baudot also flies out of the blocks with well-timed, accurate counters. Unfortunately, Baudot lacks the natural strength to keep Parisian’s hulking mass from walking him down and pinned to the mat.

Predicted Result: Parisian TKO Round 2

For an overblown Light Heavyweight, the Black Samourai is an exciting striker to watch. Dynamic with intercepting elbows, Baudot also flies out of the blocks with well-timed, accurate counters. Unfortunately, Baudot lacks the natural strength to keep Parisian’s hulking mass from walking him down and pinned to the mat.

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Thiago Moises vs Christos Giagos

Lightweight (155)

Thiago Moises (15-6)

A two-fight slide sucks to see for a prospect, but the hype train was artificially lit by the UFC to try to give Makhachev a credible scalp. After impressing simply by reaching the fourth round with the feared Dagestani grappler, Moises was stunned in the first round by Joel Alvarez. Moises is easily herded onto the cage but carries enough firepower to fight his way out against the likes of Giagos’ striking prowess. If Giagos looks to take this to the mat, Moises is more than skilled to survive to wait out Giagos’ ticking time bomb of a gas tank.

Christos Giagos (19-9)

The Spartan is a decent fighter to have around to test prospects but this match-up feels like a bridge too far. Giagos visibly slows after the first round, aided by his high-octane style that relies on stand-up pressure and early submission attempts. The X-Factor is whether Giagos can take Moises down early enough to make a difference. If so, Giagos cannot afford to sloppily transition and allow Moises to escape as easily as Tsarukyan.

Predicted Result: Moises Decision

Moises is easily herded onto the cage but carries enough firepower to fight his way out against the likes of Giagos’ striking prowess. The X-Factor is whether Giagos can take Moises down early enough to make a difference. If so, Giagos cannot afford to sloppily transition and allow Moises to escape as easily as Tsarukyan. Either way, Moises’ gas tank should see a shifting of the tide by the mid-point.

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Umar Nurmagomedov vs Nate Maness

Bantamweight (135)

Umar Nurmagomedov (14-0)

The Nurmagomedov name really seems to throw the bookmakers. Granted, Umar is an undefeated prospect who has sparkled in the UFC so far, but Nate Maness remains an intriguing test. Maness is the king of recovery and could drag Nurmagomedov into deep waters. Ridiculous mobility will allow the Russian to keep to favourable exchanges, while Umar’s grappling prowess is already clear in his highlight reel package.

Nate Maness (14-1)

On the one hand, Maness was pieced apart by Tony Gravely for the best of two minutes. On the other, Maness remains a constant powerful threat and owns a granite chin to wait for the prime opportunity. While I would like for this fight to go deep just to see how Nurmagomedov can adapt, I expect Maness will walk into a trap early.

Predicted Result: Nurmagomedov Submission Round 1

On the one hand, Maness was pieced apart by Tony Gravely for the best of two minutes. On the other, Maness remains a constant powerful threat and owns a granite chin to wait for the prime opportunity. Unfortunately for Maness, Nurmagomedov’s mobility will allow him to keep to favourable exchanges. Although I would like for this fight to go deep just to see how Nurmagomedov can adapt, I expect Maness will walk into a trap early.

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Chris Curtis vs Rodolfo Vieira

Middleweight (185)

Chris Curtis (28-8)

One of the feel-good stories of 2021, Chris Curtis was finally rewarded after a long, punishing career facing some of the best in MMA. All that experience has paid off for Curtis, however. Fascinatingly patient to start fights, Curtis imitates a budget Lomachenko as he downloads his opponent’s patterns before entering the matrix. Curtis can be out-wrestled, but he has never been submitted – likely owing to his smart decision-making and efficient movements. 

Rodolfo Vieira (8-1)

While I am a big fan of submission wizards in MMA, I’m not sure I can ever be truly confident in Vieira after the Hernandez fight. The Brazilian’s striking can certainly be refined over time, but the gas tank is a worry when combined with Vieira’s preference for frantic flurries. Vieira’s chances of an early submission are high as Curtis does take time to warm into fights. I’m letting my heart take the wheel for this one, though.

Predicted Result: Curtis TKO Round 2

While I am a big fan of submission wizards in MMA, I’m not sure I can ever be truly confident in Vieira after the Anthony Hernandez fight. Vieira’s chances of an early submission are high as Curtis does take time to warm into fights. Still, Curtis is vastly experienced and has never been submitted across his long career. I’m letting my heart take the wheel for this one, though.

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