UFC Orlando Main Card Predictions, Odds and Results: Thompson vs Holland
UFC Orlando Main Card | Pintsized Background
The UFC Orlando Main Card features a crossroads Welterweight fight between Karate Kid, Stephen Thompson, and the brashly out-spoken, Kevin Holland. RDA and Bryan Barberena lock horns too as the co-main, with Bam Bam having bounced from a worrying hospital stay with a 3-win streak. UFC Orlando’s main card also features two of the hardest hitters at Heavyweight, Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich, in a top-10 affair.
Where/When is UFC Orlando Main Card taking place:
December 3, 2022. Amway Center. Florida, United States.
What time does UFC Orlando Main Card start:
🇬🇧 UK: 3am / 🇺🇸 US ET: 10pm
What channel is UFC Orlando Main Card on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
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UFC Orlando Main Card Picks & Odds
| UFC Orlando Main Card Odds | UFC Orlando Main Card Predictions |
|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland Odds: (+140) / (-165) | Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland Prediction: Stephen Thompson Decision |
| Rafael dos Anjos vs Bryan Barberena Odds: (-560) / (+430) | Rafael dos Anjos vs Bryan Barberena Prediction: Rafael dos Anjos Decision |
| Matheus Nicolau vs Matt Schnell Odds: (-380) / (+310) | Matheus Nicolau vs Matt Schnell Prediction: Nicolau Submission Round 3 |
| Tai Tuivasa vs Sergei Pavlovich Odds: (+185) / (-215) | Tai Tuivasa vs Sergei Pavlovich Prediction: Tai Tuivasa TKO Round 2 |
| Jack Hermansson vs Roman Dolidze Odds: (-190) / (+160) | Jack Hermansson vs Roman Dolidze Prediction: Jack Hermansson Decision |
| Eryk Anders vs Kyle Daukaus Odds: (+190) / (-225) | Eryk Anders vs Kyle Daukaus Prediction: Kyle Daukaus Decision |
UFC Orlando: Main Event
Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland
Welterweight (170)
Stephen Thompson (16-6-1)
This isn’t the first time that Stephen Thompson has faced the possibility of a third loss in a row. Back in 2019, Thompson faced Vicente Luque after suffering his first career KO loss to Anthony Pettis and a dubious decision in Liverpool to Darren Till. There is reason to believe that Wonderboy is over-the-hill at this point, however.
No longer in his physical prime, Thompson looks far more vulnerable to takedowns than earlier in his UFC tenure. Still, there are few strikers as slick or technically efficient as Thompson. Holland was a crafty counter-puncher at Middleweight, but he seems dead-set on bullying opponents at Welterweight. A similar pressure approach would allow Thompson to operate on his back foot, replicating stellar performances against Jorge Masvidal and Luque. A noticeable drop in speed is a worry, however.
Kevin Holland (23-8)
The Kevin Holland who knocked out Joaquin Buckley may have been his peak performance. Educated counter-striking, exceptional use of his reach and a mesmerising array of feints to mask his power. Holland at 170lbs is a mess in which his preference to pressure opponents has seen him lose exchanges with Alex Oliveira and Tim Means.
Forget the Khamzat Chimaev fight. There is no value in analysing such a late-notice, stylistically comedic fight – if anything, Holland did surprisingly well to get back to his feet initially. As much as Thompson should beat Holland on paper, the physical decline is very difficult to overlook. If Holland were a slightly more consistent fighter, less prone to mental lapses, I’d expect to break a slowing Thomspon down the stretch.
Thompson vs Holland Prediction: Thompson Decision
The Kevin Holland who knocked out Joaquin Buckley may have been his peak performance. Educated counter-striking, exceptional use of his reach and a mesmerising array of feints to mask his power. Holland at 170lbs is a mess in which his preference to pressure opponents has seen him lose exchanges with Alex Oliveira and Tim Means.
As much as Thompson should beat Holland on paper, the physical decline is very difficult to overlook. If Holland were a slightly more consistent fighter, less prone to mental lapses, I’d expect to break a slowing Thomspon down the stretch. This won’t be the first time that Wonderboy has faced a potential three-fight slide, but it will take a gargantuan performance to replicate the dominance of the Vicente Luque victory.
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UFC Orlando: Co-Main Event
Rafael dos Anjos vs Bryan Barberena
Welterweight (170)
Rafael dos Anjos (31-14)
Even in a fifth-round TKO loss, RDA continued to prove his quality during his career twilight against Rafael Fiziev. Taking Round 4, and arguably Round 3, off of the ferocious Krygzstani is a huge achievement for the 38-year-old. Just a five-month layoff for the Brazilian after the knockout is a red flag for his durability, but Barberena breaks opponents through volume rather than one-shot KO power. RDA can afford to wade through Barberena’s volume in the pocket to lay down a stifling grappling-heavy game plan.
Bryan Barberena (18-8)
Bam Bam may have stopped Robbie Lawler in the second round, but the fight felt reminiscent of a veteran’s league rather than the top MMA promotion. Barberena was pressed back by Lawler through footwork alone – an area that RDA has regularly punished opponents throughout his career. Barberena should aim to use his physical advantages to bully Dos Anjos early and tax the ageing Brazilian’s gas tank.
Dos Anjos vs Barberena Prediction: RDA Decision
Bam Bam may have stopped Robbie Lawler in the second round, but the fight felt reminiscent of a veteran’s league rather than the top MMA promotion. Barberena was pressed back by Lawler through footwork alone – an area that RDA has regularly punished opponents throughout his career. Barberena should aim to use his physical advantages to bully Dos Anjos early and tax the ageing Brazilian’s gas tank – especially considering RDA has spent only five months on the sidelines since his crushing stoppage loss to Rafael Fiziev.
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UFC Orlando: Main Card
Matheus Nicolau vs Matt Schnell
Flyweight (125)
Matheus Nicolau (18-2-1)
Screw impartiality, Matheus Nicolau is one of my favourite Flyweights on the roster. The Brazilian now favours his sharp counter-striking, which he has tagged onto his functional wrestling base. Nicolau lacks knockout power and pushes a pedestrian pace, but his accuracy and consistency have seen his rise to a three-fight streak upon his return to the UFC.
Matt Schnell (16-7)
Over his UFC career, Schnell has transformed from a risk-averse style to a ‘pedal-to-the-metal’ approach. For a fighter with a questionable chin, it is a head-scratcher as to why Schnell has adopted such a wild style. Regardless, it is entertaining to watch and his grappling chops ensure he always has a chance to make the most of the madness he creates.
Nicolau vs Schnell Prediction: Nicolau Submission Round 3
Nicolau lacks knockout power and pushes a pedestrian pace, but his accuracy and consistency have seen his rise to a three-fight streak upon his return to the UFC. Meanwhile, Schnell flies out of the blocks to create a mess and falls back onto his grappling chops. For a fighter with a questionable chin, it is a head-scratcher as to why Schnell has adopted such a wild style.
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Tai Tuivasa vs Sergei Pavlovich
Heavyweight (265)
Tai Tuivasa (15-4)
The Tai Tuivasa hype train ran to a bloody end in Paris three months ago at the hands of Ciryl Gane. Tuivasa managed to knock down the arguable future Heavyweight champion, but a hell of a lot of miles were put on the Aussie’s chin in the futile affair. With such a short time to recuperate, and coming against a fighter who loves a first-round KO, it could be a recipe for disaster.
Sergei Pavlovich (16-1)
Pavlovich is a ferociously fast starter. All five of the Russians’ fights in the UFC ended in the first round (4W 1L). Rather than owing to lights-out power, the Russian instead is a 1-2 merchant before eventually swarming opponents. Against Tuivasa, a fighter who thrives in difficult 50/50 exchanges, it seems a stylistic hurdle that could largely be conquered if Tuivasa hasn’t recovered fully.
Tuivasa vs Pavlovich Prediction: Tuivasa TKO Round 2
The huge red flag has to be Tuivasa’s lack of recovery time after a bloody beatdown in Paris at the hands of Ciryl Gane. Against Pavlovich, a ferociously fast starter, it could be too much too soon for Bam Bam. However, Tuivasa has made a career out of thriving in tough 50/50 exchanges and turning the tide of a fight with a one-shot. Pavlovich is a swarmer once he has his opponent hurt and could easily walk himself into a Greg Hardy-esque highlight reel.
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Jack Hermansson vs Roman Dolidze
Middleweight (185)
Jack Hermasson (23-7)
Damn, did anyone realise that Jack Hermansson is already 34 years old? The Swede, once a feared grappler at Middleweight who dominated Jacare Souza, is now a strangely robotic striker. As seen against Chris Curtis, Hermansson can keep a counter-puncher on the end of his jab with relative ease. Dolidze is far more dynamic, however, showcasing a level of power that has hampered Hermansson’s willingness to open up on the feet in the past.
Roman Dolidze (11-1)
The Caucasian is one of MMA’s bad boys, but exceptional first-round highlight reel stoppages over Kyle Daukaus and Phil Hawes highlight one of 2022’s gems. It was only a month ago that Dolidze snapped Hawes’ knee tendons before brutally sending the American to the shadow realm. Dolidze remains a mess of parts, dangerous in all areas of a fight, but he massively struggled against Trevin Giles – the only fighter who has entered with a clear, consistent game plan.
Hermansson vs Dolidze Prediction: Hermansson Decision
The Swede, once a feared grappler at Middleweight who dominated Jacare Souza, is now a strangely robotic striker. As seen against Chris Curtis, Hermansson can keep a counter-puncher on the end of his jab with relative ease. That alone is the key to victory against Roman Dolidze. The Georgian is a mess of parts, dangerous in all areas of a fight, but he massively struggled against Trevin Giles – the only fighter who has entered against Dolidze with a clear, consistent game plan.
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Eryk Anders vs Kyle Daukaus
Middleweight (185)
Eryk Anders (14-7)
Somehow, someway, Eryk Anders holds his place on the UFC roster. Stiff, low-volume striking combined with control grappling without any ultimate goal. Anders’ skillset has regressed over his UFC tenure without a real bump up in opposition quality from his early days.
Kyle Daukaus (11-3)
The D’Arce Knight is technically polished but severely hampered by his below-average athleticism. Suffering his first knockout loss in the professional ranks last time out, Daukaus was caught clean in the clinch. Daukaus cannot afford to hold any baggage from the devastating loss, as his dominance in the clinch has been the root of his past successes.
Anders vs Daukaus Prediction: Daukaus Decision
Suffering his first knockout loss in the professional ranks last time out, Daukaus was caught clean in the clinch. Daukaus cannot afford to hold any baggage from the devastating loss, as his dominance in the clinch has been the root of his past successes. Anders has regressed over his UFC tenure without a real bump up in opposition quality from his early days. Expecting a dull affair in which Anders backs himself onto the cage, allowing Daukaus to cruise to a decision.
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Pintsized Interests is just a baby finding its first steps in the big, bad world of sports journalism. If you enjoy the content that is regularly uploaded then please consider donating via the link below. Any amount is greatly appreciated, and will go towards ensuring the survival of Pintsized Interests in the long-term.