UFC London Main Card Predictions: Blaydes vs Aspinall
Pintsized Background
Just four months after the UFC’s long-awaited return to London, the 02 Arena plays host to another Tom Aspinall main event. Alexander Volkov is no pushover, but Curtis Blaydes represents a wrestling-centric skillset that could dismantle Aspinall’s preferred fight. Darren Till’s pull-out may have sullied the co-main event a smidge, but Chris Curtis has richly deserved a promotional push in a winnable Middleweight contender fight against Jack Hermansson.
Where/When is UFC London Main Card taking place:
July 23, 2022. 02 Arena. London, England.
What time does UFC London Main Card start:
🇬🇧 UK: 8pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 4pm
What channel is UFC London Main Card on:
🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
- 🚀 Preview: UFC on ABC 3 Predictions: Ortega vs Rodriguez
- 🥊 PI’s Recommended Fight: Shane Burgos vs Charles Jourdain
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UFC London Main Card Picks & Odds
| UFC London Main Card Fights & Odds | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes (+115) Tom Aspinall (-135) | Blaydes | TKO | 3 |
| Chris Curtis (-110) Jack Hermansson (-110) | Hermansson | Decision | / |
| Jordan Leavitt (+215) Paddy Pimblett (-255) | Pimblett | TKO | 1 |
| Alexander Gustafsson (+175) Nikita Krylov (-205) | Krylov | Submission | 2 |
| Hannah Goldy (+320) Molly McCann (-390) | McCann | Decision | / |
| Paul Craig (+135) Volkan Oezdemir (-155) | Oezdemir | TKO | 2 |
UFC London Main Card: Main Event
Curtis Blaydes vs Tom Aspinall
Heavyweight (265)
Curtis Blaydes (16-3)
Curtis Blaydes has an unwarranted tag of being a ‘boring fighter’. A strange sentiment for a fighter that has 6 finishes, and has been finished 3 times, over a fifteen-fight career. It may have been four years ago, but it would be wise to remember Blaydes’ hellbows that eviscerated Overeem on the mat.
On the feet, Blaydes is a functional striker. Chris Daukaus has a style ill-suited for Heavyweight, yet Blaydes remained calm under volume and found powerful clean counters. Aspinall is far more lethal on the feet, capable of suffocating opponents with volume. Unless Blaydes is stung with a shot, there is evidence that Blaydes will persist with his straight shots before searching for the takedown. The downfall for Blaydes against Derrick Lewis was to ditch the striking in favour of wrestling.
Can Tom Aspinall handle Blaydes’ terrifying wrestling base and unbudgeable top game? Over five rounds, Blaydes has a history of relentless wrestling – 14 takedowns against Alexander Volkov, 10 against Mark Hunt and 7 against Justin Willis. The American did slow by the championship rounds against Volkov, yet on the flip side, Aspinall noticeably slowed in the second round against Andrei Arlovski.
Tom Aspinall (12-2)
Initially, I felt that the jump up to Alexander Volkov was a step too soon for Tom Aspinall. The Salford lad only went and blew everybody’s expectations out of the water. Crisp, rhythmic timing from the opening bell, Aspinall stalked Volkov with short, sharp bursts on the feet. The finish may have been excellent, yet Aspinall’s slip inside of Volkov’s long straight and into a takedown was a piece of fighting beauty.
My same worries, as before the Volkov fight, may well rear their ugly head in this match-up. Aspinall’s slew of finishes has caught many eyes, but at some point (even at Heavyweight), a fighter needs to dig deep and grind out rounds. Blaydes has only been stopped by the most nuclear one-shot punchers at 265lbs, in contrast to Aspinall’s overwhelming volume. Does Aspinall have the rig to dig deep into the championship rounds against a proven five-round fighter?
Furthermore, if for whatever reason Aspinall cannot find his pace on the feet, does he back his wrestling against one of the only Heavyweight mat magicians? If Blaydes does end up on top, however, the end is not necessarily nigh. Aspinall has an array of submissions off his back that could neutralise Blaydes’ dangerous G’n’P.
Predicted Result: Blaydes TKO Round 3
I really want to buy into the Aspinall hype train, but Blaydes represents another huge leap in opposition quality. That isn’t to say this isn’t a razor-close call. Blaydes has developed an ugly habit of persisting with his striking early on rather than settling into a better-suited gameplan. Aspinall is blazing fast on the feet and is set to punish Blaydes’ powerful yet lumbering straight shots. Moreover, Aspinall’s array of submissions off his back could neutralise Blaydes’ dangerous G’n’P.
Still, the red flags regarding Aspinall were not answered by his early finish over Alexander Volkov. We have no evidence of Aspinall digging deep and adapting late into contests against the top-quality competition – unlike Blaydes. The American has only fallen to the mightiest one-shot power punchers, in contrast to Aspinall’s drowning volume. A fantastic main event that should edge either contender towards an interim title shot.
UFC London Main Card: Co-Main Event
Jack Hermansson vs Chris Curtis
Middleweight (185)
Jack Hermansson (22-7)
Damn, The Joker’s only victory in the last two years has come against a mentally broken Edmen Shahbazyan. The Swede is an aggressive striker (against tamer punchers), in addition to a fantastically well-rounded grappler. Hermansson will enter with a technical gap against Chris Curtis, yet the established Middleweight has a respectable jab and is buttery smooth if he can set his ideal pace. Curtis, as a veteran counter-puncher, will allow the larger physical specimen to gain confidence over the rounds.
Chris Curtis (29-8)
A knockout may well be the only way for the last-minute replacement to earn a shock victory. Curtis has fast become a fan favourite with his open opinions on social media and an emotional underdog story to boot. With huge amounts of experience under his belt, Curtis fights with patience that only veterans show. Unfortunately for Curtis, a willingness to give up the early rounds in order to make reads may well take the fight out of his hands. Hermansson sits into his jab, allowing Curtis to land his trademark left hook over the top of it, but the Swede’s strong chin should be able to keep him ticking.
Predicted Result: Hermansson Decision
Hermansson sits into his jab, allowing Curtis to land his trademark left hook over the top of it, but the Swede’s strong chin should be able to keep him ticking. Curtis’ bodywork is vital to his game, but it rarely scores on judges’ scorecards. Hermansson’s long, consistent jab will earn him rounds. Add in Curtis’ slow starts and Hermansson will have the opportunity to gain confidence fighting at his preferred pace.
UFC London: Main Card
Paddy Pimblett vs Jordan Leavitt
Lightweight (155)
Paddy Pimblett (18-3)
Ay lad, it’s Paddy Pimblett. A personality always adds welcome entertainment to fights, but the flaws in the Liverpudlian’s game have not been ironed out since his transition from Cage Warriors. A frenetic all-offence striker, Pimblett continues to arc his chin towards the ceiling when throwing. Leavitt is a dreadful striker, however. The American has also struggled to find takedowns over his UFC stint, allowing Pimblett to throw the kitchen sink on the feet without punishment. If the fight transitions to the mat, both fighters are relatively threatening, but both men’s risk-taking will make it somewhat of a coin flip.
Jordan Leavitt (10-1)
The twerk machine, Jordan Leavitt, is a fun one-trick pony that could hopefully forge an entertaining career at the bottom of the barrel. Leavitt was neutralised by Claudio Puelles’ grappling, the mat doesn’t represent an area that will automatically lead to Pimblett’s demise. Devoid of technique or confidence on the feet, Leavitt’s offensive threat is muted, but can never amount to zero against Pimblett’s chin-first striking.
Predicted Result: Pimblett TKO round 1
The twerk machine, Jordan Leavitt, is a fun one-trick pony that could hopefully forge an entertaining career at the bottom of the barrel. Without a wrestling threat to take the fight to the mat, however, this should amount to a punishing beatdown on the feet. Devoid of technique or confidence on the feet, Leavitt’s offensive threat is muted, but can never amount to zero against Pimblett’s chin-first striking.
Nikita Krylov vs Alexander Gustafsson
Light Heavyweight (205)
Nikita Krylov (27-9)
The man laid to rest by the slick submission chops of Paul Craig, Krylov finds himself higher on the billing than his former adversary. Krylov used to be a kill or be killed madman, since 2019 however, the veteran operates a dull wrestling-centric approach. Back in the day, Gus has to be favoured to box the head off Krylov. Against a Swedish shell, however, expect Krylov to stink out the joint with busy kickboxing and control time.
Alexander Gustafsson (18-7)
Thirty-five years old and a shadow of the former title contender, Gustafsson should have laid down the gloves after an embarrassing first-round submission loss to Fabricio Werdum. The jab, the power, the shot selection on the outside – all the components that made Gus great have been missing since the Jon Jones rematch loss. I’d love to see the return of a prime Gus, but it just feels like it ain’t it chief.
Predicted Result: Krylov Submission Round 2
Thirty-five years old and a shadow of the former title contender, Gustafsson should have laid down the gloves after an embarrassing first-round submission loss to Fabricio Werdum. The jab, the power, the shot selection on the outside – all the components that made Gus great have been missing since the Jon Jones rematch loss. Expect Krylov to stink out the joint with busy kickboxing, control time and break Gus on the mat.
Molly McCann vs Hannah Goldy
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Molly McCann (12-4)
Oh, so we’re really trying to give McCann a promotional push now? Benefitting massively from her friendship with Paddy Pimblett, the Flyweight hit her ceiling with losses to Gillian Robertson and Lara Fritzen. McCann is an entertaining, highly aggressive striker – but lacks counter-punching chops and can be outwrestled. Goldy is solid on the mat, but the American struggles to settle into her takedowns under heavy duress. McCann will lay down a voluminous gauntlet and prevent Goldy from catching her breath.
Hannah Goldy (6-2)
A beefcake of a Flyweight, Goldy carries almost zero power. Stemming from her laughably short reach, Goldy has no confidence in striking on the front foot so spends most of her time backtracking on the feet. A first-round armbar over Emily Whitmire last time out exhibited a fighter with greater intent. Unfortunately, against McCann, it feels like an uphill battle stylistically.
Predicted Result: McCann Decision
We’re really in the era where Meatball is getting a promotional push, eh? McCann is an entertaining, highly aggressive striker – but lacks counter-punching chops and can be outwrestled. Goldy is solid on the mat, but the American struggles to settle into her takedowns under heavy duress. McCann will lay down a voluminous gauntlet and prevent Goldy from catching her breath.
Paul Craig vs Volkan Oezdemir
Light Heavyweight (205)
Paul Craig (16-4-1)
Once gatekeeper of Light Heavyweight, the Scotsman has rocketed on an upward trajectory after an abysmal split decision draw over the corpse of Mauricio Rua. A comeback triangle choke against Nikita Krylov was vintage Paul Craig, yet the brutal arm break and elbows from guard against Jamahal Hill remains my favourite memory. nudge, nudge. Don’t forget Craig also holds a buzzer-beater submission over Magomed Ankalaev.
Volkan Oezdemir (17-6)
Every time Oezdemir fights, the Swiss native breaks my heart. No two fights are the same for the technically gifted striker. Patient and calculated on the feet, Oezdemir utilises angles well and creates visibly awkward striking affairs for opponents. Craig will struggle massively to handle Oezdemir at range or in the pocket. When you consider Oezdemir holds an 80% career TDD despite facing the likes of Ankalaev, Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith and Misha Cirkunov – the hopes of a grappling battle start to fade fast.
Predicted Result: Oezdemir TKO Round 2
I love a bit of Paul Craig on any card, yet it wasn’t so long ago that the corpse of Shogun Rua almost stopped the gassed Scotsman. Patient and calculated on the feet, Oezdemir utilises angles well and creates visibly awkward striking affairs for opponents. Craig will struggle massively to handle Oezdemir at range or in the pocket. When you consider Oezdemir holds an 80% career TDD despite facing the likes of Ankalaev, Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith and Misha Cirkunov – the hopes of a grappling battle start to fade fast.
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