Lads, the UFC Vegas 49 card is over. Hannah Goldy has been strucketh by illness and has pulled out of her scheduled match-up with Jinh Yu Frey. We only have Islam Makhachev vs Bobby Green and Arman Tsarukyan vs Joel Alvarez to keep us tided over.
As a side note, just how one Earth is Priscila Cachoeira still with the UFC? Women’s Flyweight isn’t the deepest division for talent, but the Brazilian is several levels below title contention and damn near gouged Gillian Robertson’s eye out just two months ago.
Islam Makhachev vs Bobby Green | Catchweight Main Event
For a fighter that is knocking on the door of a title shot, Islam Makhachev has failed to build much of a fanbase. That isn’t to say the Dagestani hasn’t an entertaining style, the thirty-year-old has shown an increased desire to chase finishes in his last three fights. A lack of identity or charisma on the microphone, however, has left the UFC with only scraps of soundbites to push one of their most talented non-champions.
While Makhachev’s first-round kimura over Dan Hooker immediately jumps off the sheet as the crowning achievement of Makhachev’s career, context matters. After RDA shockingly pulled out, Hooker entered the cage against Islam just a month after whooping Nasrat Haqparast. Instead, Makhachev’s torturous dismantling of Thiago Moises and Drew Dober best reflect the all-round development in his game.
Entering the UFC as one of the slickest grapplers, Makhachev has more than proven that his ability on the ground can scale up the ladder. Thoroughly out-wrestling the human fridge that is Drew Dober, Makhachev sat the American on his arse three times with ease – amassing nearly ten minutes of control time in a bout that ended early in the third round. In the next fight against Moises, Makhachev evidenced clear upgrades to the striking department. More evenly distributing his weight on his feet, Makhachev always found his feet set for his powerful Southpaw left straight. Whenever Makhachev loops his left into a looping hook, the Dagestani can find an underhook and open up one of his trips.
Stepping up on just two weeks’ notice to fight one of the most feared grapplers in the sport, Bobby Green epitomises everything right about combat sports. A pure fighter, Bobby Green has fought anyone that the UFC has put in front of him, and best of all, to butcher ‘ol Blue Eyes, he did it his own way. We are talking about a veteran who has victories over James Krause, Josh Thomson, Clay Guida and Al Iaquinta; as well as having gone to the bell with Rafael Fiziev, Edson Barboza and Rashid Magomedov. If there were ever a fighter not to be fazed by an opponent’s skillset, nor a two-week turnaround from his last fight, it would be King Bobby.
Personal bias aside, however, Bobby Green rides into his first main event off the back of a one-sided beating over Nasrat Haqparast. The Afghan is a game, durable slugger but allowed Bobby to fight his ideal tit-for-tat range boxing. In his last five fights, Green has only had to deal with nine takedown attempts. Alan Patrick ran headfirst into takedowns, unsuccessfully securing just one from six. Thiago Moises, however, was able to mix in an early takedown behind an offensive flurry on the feet. Bobby Green’s takedown defence is functional, but if Makhachev can back Green onto the fence, the Dagestani is far too powerful to be denied. More worrying, Green’s defence on the mat centres around threatening an opponent’s neck and working back to his feet. I cannot stress enough how elite Makhachev is from the top, even with Green’s underrated grappling credentials, the difference will be stark.
That leaves us with the fight on the feet. Aside from a flush KO of an over-the-hill, despondent Al Iaquinta, Green’s last finish came back in 2013. Green’s bread and butter revolve around his exceptional head movement and natural knack for timing. Rather than searching for one big shot, Green is a master of baiting opponents in by keeping his hands low. Most impressive is Green’s flurries while switching stances. Rather than a single shifting punch, Green unleashes 3 shot combinations that opponents are unable to react to. Unfortunately, Green needs space to comfortably counter. Rafael Fiziev was able to burn time against Green by keeping him against the cage, Bobby will struggle to have any answers for Makhachev’s oppression.
A quick side note. Bobby hasn’t fought a five-rounder in the UFC. With one of the best-proven chins in the business and a habit of pulling ahead in the third round, there is reason to believe that Green is a more natural five-round fighter. Whether Green can keep himself on the feet make this count, however, will be the real trouble.
Makhachev vs Green Prediction: Mahkachev Decision
Misha Cirkunov vs Wellington Turman | Middleweight Co-Main Event
Bruh. Is this the steepest ever decline in regards to Main -> Co-Main quality? I quite like Misha Cirkunov. The Latvian is a walking muscle at Middleweight and his debut against Krzysztof Jotko was always destined to be a stylistic stinker. It has been nearly six years since Cirkunov was building a sizeable name for himself at LHW. Back-to-back submissions over Ion Cutelaba and Nikita Krylov feel like a time long gone for the thirty-four-year-old. With the extra physicality at 185lbs, Cirkunov has a realistic chance of controlling most Middleweights against the cage, especially the ridiculously limited skillset of Wellington Turman.
Barely beating Sam Alvey on a split decision is not the result that inspires much hope behind a prospect. Wellington Turman arguably could have been cut after two devastating knockout losses to Andrew Sanchez and Bruno Silva. There is still time for the twenty-five-year-old to turn it all around, but mentally, Turman looks shot. A handy grappler, Turman’s control on the mat is levels below that of Cirkunov. The Brazilian has not faced such a powerful wrestler/submission artist before, and even if Turman can survive a choke, he is particularly brittle to ground and pound.
Cirkunov vs Turman Prediction: Cirkunov Submission Round 1
Priscila Cachoeira vs Ji Yeon Kim | Flyweight Main Card
Zombie Girl is a cardio test for Women Flyweights at this point. The Brazilian has a cracking chin and will throw an occasional hard shot throughout the three rounds, but the blueprint to victory is so clear. Cachoeira somehow manages to telegraph her 1-2 with comically granite hips, while her vulnerability on the mat was never clearer than her inability to get off her back against Gillian Robertson. Back to the early prelims if we’re to continue with Cachoeira.
Entering off of a FOTN bonus, Yeon Kim finds herself in career purgatory. Comfortably beaten by Alexa Grasso and Antonina Shevchenko, Kim is gritty enough to grind out decisions on the feet against the bottom of the barrel Women Flyweights. Kim and McCann’s pulsating three-round battle is the ideal match-up for the two fighters. Totally incapable of utilising her length to her advantage, Kim eventually warms into her timing off the back of her solid chin. Able to maintain a strong pace, Kim has to 30-27 the likes of Priscila Cachoeira or there is little point in continuing.
Cachoeira vs Kim Prediction: Kim Decision
Arman Tsarukyan vs Joel Alvarez | Lightweight Main Card
The real FOTN finds itself lingering awkwardly in the middle of the main card. The two Lightweights are HUGE prospects, with a highlight-reel victory on Saturday night paving the path towards a money fight. The liquid grappler was able to push Makhachev to a hard-fought decision back in 2019, indicating that the Armenian was destined for greatness. Collecting four victories since that L, Tsarukyan further evidenced his wrestling prowess against Olivier Aubin-Mercier and Matt Frevola.
After Davi Ramos proved a little harder to take down than expected, Tsarukyan unleashed a refined striking threat upon the overmatched Christos Giagos. The Armenian jab is the perfect tool to control opponents positioning in the cage, but against an opponent with a 5″ reach advantage, Tsarukyan could struggle to work into range. Rushing head-first into takedowns, like the Ramos fight, could also see Tsarukyan walk into the Spaniard’s famed guillotine choke.
Tsarukyan may be the favourite, but this is a far more equal match-up than most believe. The main issue Alvarez faces against Tsarukyan, is that he hasn’t shown the capacity of wrestling Tsarukyan. Alvarez has secured almost all of his submissions through reactive or defensive submissions, rather than chasing the opportunities himself. Against a risk-averse controller such as Tsarukyuan? The chance of a submission is somewhat low.
The Spaniard will instead look to pressure Tsarukyan on the feet. Knees and elbows battered Thiago Moises into a first-round knockout, but it was Alvarez’s kicking game that broke Moises. Hard leg kicks prevented Moises from resting on the outside, while front kicks through the centre punished Moises who fails to enter on an angle. Tsarukyan is a more potent threat on the inside than Moises, but the Armenian can similarly be criticised for lingering on the edge of striking distance.
Tsarukyan vs Alvarez Prediction: Kim Decision
Gregory Rodrigues vs Armen Petrosyan | Middleweight Main Card
After sitting on the fence before Rodrigues’ fight with Jun Yong Park, it has been settled, I am fully behind Robocop. A powerful wrestler, Rodrigues finally evidenced an ability to pin opponents to the mat against Park, holding onto the Korean’s back for half a round. The low hands and meandering head movement isn’t pretty but it is functional and masks his level changes relatively well. Rodrigues’ decision making under heavy fire is questionable, but it’ll take a big puncher to punish Rodrigues when he backs himself onto the cage.
Enter Armen Petrosyan. Superman earned himself a contract on the DWCS with a delicious first-round finish over the previously undefeated, Kaloyan Kolkev. Worryingly, Petrosyan did little to disprove the belief that his atrocious TDD will be the death of him. Kolev was able to ragdoll the Armenian for much of the first round, even with Petrosyan working his way back up regularly. Does it matter when Petrosyan carries lights out power? Rodrigues dug deep and banked on his chin against Park, but Petrosyan could punish the tiring Brazilian later down the line.
Rodrigues vs Petrosyan Prediction: Rodrigues Submission Round 1
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Zhu Rong | Lightweight Prelims
After a disappointing split decision loss to John Makdessi, the Chilean prospect immediately reignited his hype train with a scorching buzzer-beater wheel kick KO over Roosevelt Roberts. Honestly, if you haven’t seen it already, go find the finish immediately – it was one of the best KOs of 2021. An imposing 6’3″, Bahamondes neglects his height in favour of pressure, volume striking. The young prospect has a granite chin to support his preferred style, but there has to be a greater emphasis on his kicking prowess. A stabbing teep kick would open a whole host of new opportunities for Bahamondes.
I received a lot of angry screeching comments when I described Zhu Rong as a ‘drearily patient, single-shot counter (puncher)’ – but he hardly suggested anything other against Brandon Jenkins. Yes, Rhong’s low kicks were a powerful tool that dismantled Jenkins’ mobility, but there wasn’t much else besides the occasional hard counter. Rong’s control from the top can be flakey but that is because of his desire to rain down ground and pound. Roosevelt Roberts secured zero from twelve takedown attempts against Bahamondes. It is difficult to see Rong finding more success than the American.
Rodrigues vs Petrosyan Prediction: Bahmondes Decision
Josiane Nunes vs Ramona Pascual | Featherweight Prelims
Josianne Nunes shocked the odds when she proved her power can carry out of the regional scene after sparking Bea Malecki in the first round. The Brazilian is an uncultured striker, but the powerful bowling ball certainly carries heavy hands. Malecki went out of her way to neglect her reach and back herself up on a straight line, but there aren’t too many slick counter-strikers at 145lbs. Even with such a fundamentally basic kit, Nunes could be a handful for anyone incapable or unwilling to shoot.
As the more natural Featherweight, Ramona Pascual’s late-notice call-up may not be as detrimental per other cases. The thirty-three-year-old debutant has hardly set the MMA world alight over the past six years. If not for a stunning knockout of Shamir Peshewa last time out in Invicta, Pascual would have struggled to catch the eye of the UFC brass. Pascual’s striking defence is awfully flakey, failing to react to incoming strikes and breaking her guard if an opponent throws more than 2-3 shots. Aside from some tasty clinch work, in particular, punishing combinations of knees, Pascual will struggle to eat Nunes’ relentless power.
Nunes vs Pascual Prediction: Nunes TKO Round 2
Terrance McKinney vs Fares Ziam | Lightweight Prelims
Terrance T’Wrecks McKenny has caused quite a stir on Twitter since his stunning seven-second debut KO victory over Matt Frevola. Brash and outspoken on Twitter, McKinney is heaping the hype (and pressure) behind his rise in the organisation. It’s a risky career move but it pays huge dividends if McKinney can continue to find finishes – something that his lights out power and aggressive style can better guarantee than most. What is overlooked, however, is McKinney’s wrestling prowess and exceptional back taking. An athletic freak, the ceiling for McKinney appears to be very high – even at this early-ish stage of his career.
Tall, long and a thoroughly disciplined kickboxer, Fares Ziam is up against the wall in this bout. His size advantage that he relied upon through the regionals will be negligible against Terrence McKinney. Worse yet, McKinney has proven himself to be a lethal early starter. Ziam will struggle to find the time or space necessary to operate behind a controlled boxing display on the outside. Woodson’s reach did cause McKinney a few issues back in his DWCS appearance, however, and there is a decent chance that Ziam can exploit this once again.
McKinney vs Ziam Prediction: McKinney TKO Round 1
Alejandro Perez vs Jonathan Martinez | Bantamweight Prelims
A slow-paced decision machine in a wide-open, exciting division has seen Alejandro Perez and his 7-fight streak (2015-2018) earn zero limelight. Strangely, during his last fight against Johnny Eduardo, Perez spent most of his time bobbing side to side within striking range. It was a frustrating and confusing decision, with perhaps the two-year lay-off striking a few nerves. During the brief trades on the inside, Perez was far slicker with his shot selection, his lead hook regularly finding the mark.
It was pleasing to see Jonathan Martinez back in the win column following a hard-fought decision victory over Zviad Lazishvili. While Martinez’s boxing still needs work, his kicking game remains insanely powerful. Perez will likely dictate the pace, but there will be frequent opportunities for Martinez to find a head kick on Perez lingering within striking range. This will be a very difficult fight for Martinez, especially considering the Mexican’s superior skillset on the ground – the oddsmakers are fooled by Perez’s unsexy style and lack of hype.
Perez vs Martinez Prediction: Martinez Decision
Ramiz Brahimaj vs Michael Gillmore | Welterweight Prelims
Just a month after a clear decision loss to Court McGee, Ramiz Brahimaj finds himself fighting for his future in the UFC. Michael Gillmore is a very limited fighter. Even with Brahimajc entering on late notice, this feels like a litmus paper test as to whether Brahimaj is cut from the UFC cloth. A solid wrestler, Brahimaj’s main game is the aggressive pursuit of early submissions – a style that wasn’t designed to beat McGee. A lack of physicality will see Brahimaj struggle against the bigger Welterweights, yet Gillmore doesn’t represent much of an athletic threat.
After a TUF first-round failure, Gillmore was called up again by the UFC to light the hype train behind Andre Petroski. A durable, conditioned brawler, Gillmore is going to struggle to survive the first round. Petroski represents a more technical wrestler than Brahimaj, yet Gillmore will still struggle to keep the latter from shooting early. Gillmore could drag Brahimaj into deeper waters if he keeps himself off the mat in the opening round, but unfortunately, that doesn’t seem like a realistic possibility.
Brahimaj vs Gillmore Prediction: Brahimaj Submission Round 1
Victor Altamirano vs Carlos Hernandez | Flyweight Prelims
Earning a split decision victory on his DWCS debut, El Magnifico is an entertaining fighter to watch. Attempting to shoulder roll with a low lead hand, Altarmirano neglects defence after the first layer of incoming strikers. A series of feints aren’t used to set up combinations yet, but over time Altarmirano could eventually set up his head kicks behind them. Athletically, Altamirano is a threat throughout the fifteen minutes – happy to scramble in an ugly war and constantly search for a finish.
Another DWCS series debutant who earned a split decision victory, Carlos Hernandez is a very similar fighter to Altamirano. Capable of thriving in a frantic war, Hernandez will find greater success on the mat. That isn’t to say Hernandez cannot handle himself on the feet, Daniel Barez was peppered with hard body kicks throughout their affair. Rather, Hernandez’s bit-piece combinations will struggle to punish Altamirano’s telegraphed yet explosive head movement. Hernandez has shown the greater capacity of controlling dominant positions on the mat, however, and can take advantage of Altarmirano’s steadfast search for finishes.
Altamirano vs Hernandez Prediction: Altamirano Decision
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