UFC Fight Night 188: Font vs Garbrandt Predictions

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With Cory Sandhagen and TJ Dillashaw knocking on the door of a title shot, Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt need a big performance on Saturday night if they want to leapfrog the Bantamweight competition. | UFC Fight Night 188 |

UFC Fight Night 188: Font vs Garbrandt Predictions & Results

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Maaan, UFC Fight Night 188 is such a poor excuse for a card. Even worse when you consider the excitement we were treated to last week with UFC 262. With far too much filler smelling out the middle of the main card, it takes away from an excellent main event between Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt. For many, Garbrandt put to bed his nightmares 2017-2019 spell after a buzzer-beater knockout over Raphael Assuncao. After a years absence, however, Garbrandt needs to prove himself once again. Rob Font on the other hand is unknown to casuals. The sharp boxer has rocketed up the Bantamweight rankings after destroying Marlon Moraes and deserves respect.

In a piece of wonderful UFC matchmaking, Jack Hermansson and Edmen Shahbazyan clash heads. Both men are desperate to return to the win column after suffering comprehensive losses. Hermansson is a serpent on the mat, yet finds himself overwhelmed against pressure strikers. Shahbazyan is a technically slick kickboxer but needs to iron out his gas tank after the Derek Brunson mauling.

What’s good about the rest of UFC Fight Night 188? Hm. Chris Barnett and his rippling moobs make their UFC debut against an equally flabby Ben Rothwell? Claudio Silva’s BJJ should be showcased against the declining Court McGee? Damir Ismagulov can grind out another decision win to kickstart the night?

This is the ideal male body. You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like. Big up the Chris Barnett hype train. | UFC Fight Night 188 |

UFC Fight Night 188
Main Event

Rob Font (18-4) vs Cody Garbrandt (12-3)

Bantamweight (135)

Rob Font

Rob Font represents one of the cleaner boxers to be found in the MMA world. Entering Saturday night with a huge six-inch reach advantage, Font can pop his crisp jab out all night. Despite fighting in the UFC for close to a decade now, Font has failed to attract any sort of devoted following.

During his early UFC tenure, Font’s aggressive swarming saw him eat big shots from heavy-handed fighters. John Linekar and Raphael Assuncao both forced Font to fall back into single-shot gameplans that earned him decision losses. Font has certainly levelled up since the Sergio Pettis fight, however. Tightened up TDD, more educated footwork to flow into combinations off the jab, and upping the pace during the later rounds – Font has developed into a near-elite fighter all in the shadows of Bantamweight’s big stars.

Font’s spearing jab comes with downsides, however, and it was no more apparent than in his last fight. By keeping his lead foot extended far ahead of himself, when leaning his weight into his jab, it allowed Moraes to snatch up a single and hoist Font to the mat.

Moreover, while Font’s composure off his back must be applauded, his long-bladed stance remains a chink in his armour. Garbrandt isn’t a notorious takedown machine, but the outlet for a panic takedown is almost always available against Font. Against Pettis, Font probed with front kicks and it is a weapon that could prove key against Garbrandt’s explosive forward momentum. Not only does the front kick provide a physical barrier that would prevent Garbrandt from closing distance, but it also forces Garbrandt’s hands to drop and opens up his chin for an easy jab.

Cody Garbrandt

You can never write out Cody Garbrandt. Despite experiencing a devastating three-fight, three knockout slide, Garbrandt’s defeats stemmed largely from his mental capitulations. Against Dillashaw, Garbrandt found great success in the 50/50 exchanges until he was dragged into phone booth wars which exposed his biscuit chin. Against Munhoz, Garbrandt was simply out-endured by the far more durable Brazilian. Perhaps most frustrating is that this is the same fighter who out-foxed the legendary champion, Dominick Cruz.

When Garbrandt can keep a lid on his emotions and stick to a game plan, his freak physical attributes trump anyone at Bantamweight. Lightning-fast hands are coupled with chopping leg kicks and wonderful wrestling. Garbrandt thrives in affairs where his opponents struggle to push a feverish pace as he is allowed to mentally reset after every exchange. Font’s constant jab will make or break Garbrandt – either frustrating Garbrandt into overextending on counters, or allowing No Love to make an early read from which he can pepper the leg.

Predicted Result: Font TKO Round 4

Garbrandt owns the fastest hands in the division, in addition to ridiculous knockout power, but his tendency to be dragged into phone booth brawls will continue to be his downfall. Sure, Garbrandt was able to control his emotions last time out against Raphael Assuncao, but the low volume affair allowed Garbrandt to mentally reset after each exchange and eventually set up his buzzer-beater knockout.

Font enters Saturday night with a six-inch reach advantage and a ridiculously consistent jab. Garbrandt will have free access to chopping Font’s extended lead leg or snapping up a single, but No Love rarely calls upon his fantastic wrestling (to his detriment). Font’s chin will come under question, but he managed to eat a couple of Moraes’ head kicks that would have knocked out a mule. Font’s ability to drive through the gears over later rounds, and sneaking in heavy bodywork off his jab will see Font gain the upper hand by the championship rounds.

Cheeky little facial re-arrangement courtesy of No Love. | UFC Fight Night 188 |
Result: Font def. Garbrandt // Decision (unanimous – 48-47, 50-45, 50-45)

Winner // Method // Round


UFC Fight Night 188
Co-Main Event

Xiaonan Yan (13-1) vs Carla Esparza (17-6)

Women’s Strawweight (115)

Xiaonan Yan

Yan is a strange fighter who throws liquid combinations off her front foot but becomes more predictable when pressed onto the back foot. Against Claudia Gadelha, Yan threw beautiful four-punch combinations against her static opponent, but when Gadelha even breathed in her direction, Yan wheeled back in a flurry of check hooks. While it does ensure that Yan pushes out a ridiculous volume, it also enabled Gadelha to easily secure early takedowns before her comically poor gas tank kicked in by the second round.

Off her back against Gadelha, however, Yan showed great composure as she used the cage to climb back to her feet. Against the cage, however, Yan will need to prove far more active against Esparza if she wants to separate and return to the stand-up as the former champion will be more than willing to grind out tedious rounds on the fence.

Carla Esparza

Carla Esparza has turned around her 2018 blip which raised questions over the former champion’s longevity at Strawweight. Shrugging off a third-round knockout to Tatiana Suarez, Esparza has since been on a four-fight run which includes razor-thin decisions over Michelle Waterson and Marina Rodriguez.

Despite her slight frame, Esparza has spent her entire career with dirty boxing on the inside, timing takedowns and out-gritting opponents on the mat. Esparza isn’t a fun fighter to watch for casuals or hardcore, but she is a testament to how adhering to a smart game plan to reap big rewards. Just don’t expect much outside of the odd tickling ground and pound while Esparza drains the clock from the top position.

Predicted Result: Esparza Decision

There is a strong chance that Yan can overwhelm Esparza with a ridiculous volume on the outside, never allowing Esparza to close the distance and secure a takedown. Yan’s front-foot combinations are diverse and accurate, fashioned around her jab which she uses as a power shot. Yan can be flustered when forced to fight on the inside for considerable periods, often wheeling back in explosive bursts and showering opponents with check hooks. Without the power to dissuade Esparza, the former champion will be able to employ her unrelenting takedown game with limited risk. Moreover, while Yan excelled against Gadelha by using the cage to prop herself back to the feet, Esparza often brings the fight to the mat in the centre of the octagon. Having never really risked position in favour of strikes or submissions, Esparza only needs two takedowns to grind out two lay and pray rounds.

Carla Esparza drops a surprisingly hard right on the Karate Hottie. | UFC Fight Night 188 |
Result: Esparza def. Yan // TKO (punches) Round 2 2:58

Winner // Method // Round


UFC Fight Night 188
Main Card

Justin Tafa (4-2) vs Jared Vanderaa (11-5)

Heavyweight (265)

Justin Tafa

At this point, anyone has to admit that the UFC is having a bit of a joke to have this Heavyweight brawl on the main card of a UFC Fight Card. Not only was Tafa nuked into the shadow realm by the very limited counter striking of Yorgan De Castro, but Tafa was also out-struck in the most dreary kickboxing match with Carlos Felipe. Still, the Aussie carries decent power – it is just the complete lack of set-up that leaves Tafa unable to land his bombs. It took Juan Adams to walk into the knockout to allow Tafa to secure the stoppage.

Jared Vanderaa

Vanderaa impressed on his DWCS debut as his giant 6’4″ frame found him great success in dictating the range and pace of the fight. But as saw against the more composed, experienced Serghei Spivac – Vanderaa is a walking target after he throws a silly high-energy burst. Vanderaa’s takedown defence won’t be exposed by Tafa, but his leaky striking defence will. Harry Hunsucker landed at times by simply dipping his chin and throwing overhands – it will only take one from Tafa to end the night.

Predicted Result: Tafa TKO Round 2

This isn’t the fun kind of sloppy Heavyweight brawl, but rather the sloppy bar-room fights more accustomed to the regional scene. Tafa has huge one-punch knockout power, but he has very little means of setting up his boxing. Vanderaa is a giant 6’4″ and uses his left hand to dictate the range in the early rounds. Sadly, Vanderaa throws stupidly explosive shots that have a clear impact on his gas tank and leave him exposed to big shots. Harry Hunsucker landed by simply dipping his chin and launching overhands – it will only take Tafa one shot to make it an early night.

Result: Vanderaa def. Tafa // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Winner // Method // Round


Felicia Spencer (8-2) vs Norma Dumont (5-1)

Women’s Featherweight (145)

Felicia Spencer

Spencer is best known for being the only fighter to receive two title shots on the back of a lack of competition in her weight class. Over a combined ten rounds with Cris Cyborg and Amanda Nunes, Spencer was beaten into a bloody pulp and it is a miracle that the doctors or her corner didn’t decide to pull her out. Spencer’s striking is rigid but it is only used as a vehicle to swarm opponents and eventually set up the takedown. Spencer has a wonderful top game that looks to secure submissions, but it is clear that she lacks the weapons to get the top Featherweights to the mat.

Norma Dumont

Norma Dumont was wheeled into the UFC as a can for Megan Anderson to knock over after it transpired that the Australian was horrendously limited despite her stunning looks. Dumont justified her place in the UFC after a dominant decision win over the troubled Ashlee Evans-Smith. Patient on the feet, Dumont snaps two-punch counters on lunging opponents. It will be on the mat, however, that Dumont will struggle to keep up with Spencer’s pace.

Predicted Result: Spencer Submission Round 3

In a division almost devoid of competition, Spencer remains perhaps the best challenger to the featherweight title. Despite dropping ten miserable rounds against Amanda Nunes and Cris Cyborg, Spencer proved her durability/heart. The main issue with Spencer is if she cannot secure top position, she is forced to strike behind her woefully rigid boxing. While Dumont is a patient counter-puncher who will likely find decent success, Spencer has proven before she can wade through punishment to secure the takedown. On the mat, Spencer will break down Dumont with heavy ground and pound before snatching her neck.

Result: Dumont def. Spencer // Decision (split – 28-29, 29-28, 30-27)

Winner // Method // Round


Bill Algeo (14-5) vs Ricardo Ramos (14-3)

Featherweight (145)

Bill Algeo

Do you know what I never realised, Bill Algeo fought Shane Burgos back in 2014 – losing to a second-round submission. Since then, Algeo has sharpened his grappling chops, but it is still a surprising name to find. Perhaps win or lose, the Algeo Burgos rematch would be a banger to book? Especially considering Algeo’s recent transformation into a brawling striker that relies on his chin. With his hands low, Algeo prefers to use his kicks as the tool of distance management rather than a jab. By attempting to out-strike opponents, Algeo has managed to paper over his ineffective takedown and instead forced opponents to spend the energy to take the fight to the mat.

Ricardo Ramos

Ricardo Ramos was the next UFC sweetheart until both Said Nurmagomedov and Lerone Murphy secured huge first-round knockout victories. Ramos is only twenty-five, however, and will undoubtedly mature. The major problem with Ramos has been his propensity to throw flamboyant wheel kicks and spinning strikes that drain his gas tank. While it stops opponent’s from making a clear read on him, the moronic rabona leg kick needs to be removed from his arsenal – offering no reward yet high risk. Similar to Algeo, Ramos has struggled to wrestle since moving to the UFC, thus neglecting his wonderful ground game.

Predicted Result: Ramos Submission Round 2

It seems foolish to pick Ramos, an immature striker who lacks the wrestling to tap into his wonderful ground, as well as considering his move up to Featherweight where he will lose his natural size advantage. Still, Ramos’ unorthodox shot selection and heavy power will make it difficult for Algeo to maintain his recently adopted stick and move style. Both men have struggled to wrestle in the UFC, but if Ramos’ crazy kickboxing can force Algeo into panic wrestling and taking the fight to the mat, the Brazilian may be able to exhibit the skills he has worked on at Team Alpha Male.

Result: Ramos def. Algeo // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Winner // Method // Round


Jack Hermansson (21-6) vs Edmen Shahbazyan (11-1)

Middleweight (185)

Jack Hermansson

God Damn do I love me this fight. Hermansson is so well-rounded that it pains me that he falls apart against heavy-handed fighters who force him into a gun-shy shell. Against Santos, Cannonier and Vettori, Hermansson seemed reluctant to commit to his jab – the vital weapon from which he launches combinations or takedowns. Hermansson is a massive Middleweight who thrives on the mat, with only his chin letting him down.

Edmen Shahbazyan

Only twenty-three years old, it is perhaps too early to say the script is out on how to beat Shahbazyan. Derek Brunson is the perennial Middleweight gatekeeper, and his awkward striking and power wrestling overwhelmed the green Shahbazyan. Still, major red flags remain over his gas tank. Shahbazyan is a liquid striker off the front and back foot with decent TDD and work off the back, but over-committing to power shots every time leaves him drained by the third round. Shahbazyan’s work in the clinch is extremely effective, however, with excellent use of knees and elbows – an area necessary to dissuade Hermansson from constantly shooting.

Predicted Result: Shahbazyan TKO Round 2 

Hermansson should be heavily favoured as in this match-up, especially considering the wrestling schooling that Brunson delivered to Shahbazyan last time out, but I simply can’t rule out the talented youngster. Hermansson is a personal favourite of mine but fails to launch his jab out with consistency against heavy-handed fighters. Considering Shahbazyan’s accuracy and power punching preference, in addition to underrated knees/elbows in the clinch, Hermansson could easily be forced into a more tentative shell in the same manner that Cannonier, Santos and Vettori achieved. While Hermansson is a huge threat in the later rounds after Shahbazyan gasses, especially on the mat, Shahbazyan’s TD should be strong enough to keep the fight standing during the early proceedings and allow enough time to find the Swede’s questionable chin.

Result: Hermansson def. Shahbazyan // Decision (unanimous – 29-27, 29-27, 29-27)

Winner // Method // Round


UFC Fight Night 188
Preliminary Card

Ben Rothwell (38-13) vs Chris Barnett (21-6)

Heavyweight (265)

Ben Rothwell

Oh Lord, what have we done to deserve yet another Ben Rothwell fight to grace our screens. Since his return, Rothwell appears to be operating on a five-minute gas tank that aims to melt opponents under pressure and volume or else he will simply drop the remaining two rounds. After a few loopy hooks which land behind the guard, Rothwell then snaps onto the opponent’s neck and lands dirty boxing and knees. Oh, he’s also got a pretty nasty front choke which is his go-to TDD.

Chris Barnett

Win or lose, Chris Barnett is gonna bring some fun to Saturday night’s proceedings. With a huge personality to match his big chungus frame, Barnett has engaged in a multitude of brawls across a variety of regional promotions. An unfortunate 5’9, Barnett is a surprisingly slick kickboxer who enjoys spinning into kicks and elbows. While there is certainly power, Barnett is easy to coax into the clinch or the mat, and his chi8n has been cracked by far less fearsome punchers than Ben Rothwell.

Predicted Result: Rothwell TKO Round 1

Ben Rothwell is a shadow of his former self, but the UFC veteran should have more than enough experience to overcome the surprisingly slick kickboxing of Chris Barnett. Rothwell has recently operated off a five-minute gas tank that melts opponents with volume, but he should be able to grapple Barnett’s big tiddies for the remainder of the fight. Barnett is a very fun fighter to watch, but his weak chin, tiny 5’9″ frame and lack of volume leave him with little chance to win his UFC debut.

Result: Rothwell def. Barnett // Submission (guillotine choke) Round 2 2:07

Winner // Method // Round


Claudio Silva (14-2) vs Court McGee (19-10)

Welterweight (170)

Claudio Silva

Claudio Silva is a wonderful fighter to watch, but at thirty-eight in a young man’s division, it is surely Silva’s time to put one foot out of the door. Against James Krause, Silva engaged in an ill-advised kickboxing bout after the Brazilian was unable to take the fight to the mat. Silva’s gas tank is surprisingly strong for an old man, and while his takedowns aren’t pretty, Silva’s strength and tenacity is often enough to take his man to the floor. Little needs to be said on the expert grappling of Silva.

Court McGee

Despite a 1-5 record in his last six, McGee’s defensive grappling should see him in good stead against Silva’s overwhelming submission game. Far more cleaner in the takedown department, McGee’s ridiculous pace will see him pip ahead during the later rounds, but he will need to endure a huge amount of pressure early doors against Silva.

Predicted Result: Silva Decision

Despite his thirty-eight years of age, Claudio Silva doesn’t have many miles on the body and proved last time out that he can maintain a decent pace for three rounds on the feet. Of course, Silva’s best work is to be found on the mat, and his ugly takedowns are often effective enough in working opponents to the mat. McGee possesses exceptional grappling defence, but he will struggle to survive the early barrage from Silva. While McGee’s gas tank will see him rise during the later rounds, Silva should be able to unleash enough punishment in the opening proceedings to secure the scorecards.

Result: McGee def. Silva // Decision (unanimous – 29-27, 30-26, 30-26)

Winner // Method // Round


Victor Rodriguez (7-3) vs Bruno Silva (11-5-2)

Flyweight (125)

Victor Rodriguez

After succumbing to a first-round knockout loss to Adrian Yanez in his UFC debut, Victor Rodriguez will be keen to showcase the heavy hands and suffocating clinch work that found him great success in the regional scene. The Alaskan regional scene doesn’t often produce the finest fighters immediately, but there is an athletic base from which Rodriguez could build upon.

Bruno Silva

Bruno Silva saved his UFC career with a wonderfully composed striking display against the rowdy upcomer, JP Buys. With an increased snap to his boxing, Silva was able to build upon his chopping leg kick and secure surprise takedowns against the well-drilled Buys. There was a fair amount of illegal eye pokes, however, and his willingness to trade in the pocket is a double-edged sword considering Silva eats a huge amount of damage.

Predicted Result: Silva TKO Round 2 

Victor Rodriguez, a product of the very average Alaskan regional scene, has the athletic base from which he can build a career upon. Heavy-hands and a strong clinch game could find Rodriguez success as Silva loves to engage in the pocket, but the Brazilian’s durability and enhanced takedowns will lead to the eventual knockout.

Result: Silva def. Rodriguez // KO (punches) Round 1 1:00

Winner // Method // Round


Joshua Culibao (8-1-1) vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (19-6)

Featherweight (145)

Joshua Culibao

Culibao likely doesn’t have long left in the premier MMA organisation, unless of course, the UFC can field an event in Australasia within the next couple of years. It’s kinda sad because I appreciate the calculated single shot striking of Culibao, but he lacks the finishing ability that will put bums on seats. If you’re going to drop rounds by fighting defensively compact off the back-foot, then you’d better commit hard to counters and make up for a lack of volume.

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

UFC debutant, Nuerdanbieke is an unknown entity as his fights are impressively difficult to find online. Aside from his knockout loss to Zhu Rong, there are only a few clips to find. Nuerdanbieke looks to be a physically imposing athlete but utterly deficient in the striking defence department.

Predicted Result: Culibao Decision

UFC debutant, Nuerdanbieke is an unknown entity as his fights are impressively difficult to find online. A physically imposing athlete, Nuerdanbieke’s defence seems solely limited to backwards movement, while his pawing offence will be easily read by Culibao. The Australian isn’t a plus athlete, but he is technically sound and his counter straight will find the mark time and time again.

Result: Culibao def. Nuerdanbieke // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner // Method // Round


David Dvorak (19-3) vs Juancamilo Ronderos (4-0)

Flyweight (125)

David Dvorak

David Dvorak doesn’t expose himself to many risks on the feet, instead of picking calculated shots land cleanly as opponents attempt to exit the pocket. On the outside, Dvorak has a wicked leg kick but he rarely throws it. Moreover, Dvorak is an underrated grappler that hasn’t needed to call upon the mat in recent fights.

Juancamilo Ronderos

UFC debutant, Juancamilo Ronderos, steps up one day’s notice to face the biggest test of his career. The Colombian already has a scalp over an ex-UFC fighter, Eric Shelton, but Ronderos struggles to keep himself standing. While Ronderos’ hands are crisp, if Dvorak wants to take this fight to the mat then there is little reason to believe that the Colombian will be able to get off his back.

Predicted Result: Dvorak Submission Round 2

On only a day’s notice, Juancamilo Ronderos steps up against the extremely well-rounded threat of David Dvorak. While Ronderos has crisp hands, he is extremely susceptible to being taken down, an area that Dvorak excels in but hasn’t needed to call upon in recent fights. On the mat or not, Dvorak’s educated striking will limit the risk of a heavy Ronderos shot and force the fight into the later rounds where Ronderos’ lack of conditioning/preparation will show.

Result: Dvorak def. Ronderos // Submission (rear-naked choke) Round 1 2:18

Winner // Method // Round


Yancy Medeiros (15-7) vs Damir Hadzovic (13-6)

Lightweight (155)

Yancy Medeiros

On a three-fight slide, the exciting Hawaiian striker has hit hard times. His previously granite chin has been weathered due to his brawling style, and as a result, has changed his style to a dreary low output kickboxing mess. Medeiros still makes excellent use of angles to land his looping punches, but absent ring cutting means he often spends most of the fight just following his opponent is a tedious dance.

Damir Hadzovic

Damir Hadzovic is certainly down the lower end of the Lightweight roster. Heavy-handed and decently durable, Hadzovic bounces into the pocket with a high guard before throwing a hard overhand right. Hadzovic occasionally lands a takedown but there is little diversity to his game. On the mat, Hadzovic is a ship lost at sea when he finds himself on his back.

Predicted Result: Medeiros Decision

This can’t be anything other than a sloppy kickboxing match with neither man particularly opting for a wrestling game plan. Medeiros has certainly declined over the past few years, but he has also faced far higher quality opposition than Hadzovic. While Hadzovic’s heavy hands could force Medeiros to fight tentatively (as has been the case in the past three fights), the Hawaiian’s use of angles will instead frustrate the Bosnian all night long.

Result: FIGHT CANCELLED (Hadzovic health issue)


Damir Ismagulov (22-1) vs Rafael Alves (19-9)

Lightweight (155)

Damir Ismagulov

Ismagulov may not have secured any stoppages since transferring to the UFC, but the Kazachi has taken the scalps of very underrated names on the Lightweight roster. Beating Joel Alvarez and Thiago Moises dominantly highlight the high skill floor that Ismagulov possesses. Tight combinations on the feet, a decent eye for a counter, and sharp head movement all play into Ismagulov cleaning up the non-ranked fighters at 155.

Rafael Alves

After a historical weight miss was finally explained by the terrible news of his wife’s miscarriage, Alves is hopefully mentally and physically ready to duke it out. This is incredibly important as Alves is the very definition of kill or be killed. Somebody is going to sleep.

Predicted Result: Ismagulov Decision

Rafael Alves is a kill or be killed fighter, yet Ismagulov’s entire style is based around limiting risk and working off his slick defensive counter striking. While Alves has enough tricks to close the distance and test Ismagulov’s chin, it is more likely that the Kazakh fighter frustrates Alves with tight combinations and lateral movement.

Result: Ismagulov def. Alves // Decision (unanimous – 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Winner // Method // Round


Prediction Accuracy

UFC Fight Night 188

Winner: 8/12

Method: 4/12

Round: 3/12

2021 MMA Season

Winner: 116/201

Method: 97/201

Round: 94/201

MMA Overall

Winner: 307/505

Method: 234/505

Round: 220/505

Takeaway comments: Just how good is Rob Font? Just how poor did Garbrandt perform?


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By JBrayne

Journalist focused on the niche and nasty of the combat world.

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