UFC Austin Main Card Predictions: Kattar vs Emmett
Pintsized Background
The UFC returns to Austin, Texas this Saturday with an incredibly intriguing main event. Can the long, technical boxing of Calvin Kattar keep the immense power of Josh Emmett on the end of his jab? Additionally, Joe Lauzon and Donald Cerrone lock horns in the co-main that would ideally be a double-feature swansong after two equally long and arduous careers.
Where/When is UFC Austin taking place: Moody Center. Austin, USA.
What time does UFC Austin start: 🇬🇧 UK: 9pm / 🇺🇸 US ET: 4pm
What channel is UFC Austin on: 🇬🇧 UK: BT Sports / 🇺🇸 US: ESPN+
Pintsized MMA content from the week before:
- 🚀 Preview: UFC 275 Predictions: Teixeira vs Prochazka
- 🥊 PI’s Recommended Fight: Glover Teixeira vs Jiri Prochazka
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- 📊 Statistics: MMA Predictions Results: January 2022
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UFC Austin Main Card Picks & Odds
| UFC Austin Fights & Odds | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Kattar (-235) J. Emmett (+190) | Kattar | TKO | 4 |
| D. Cerrone (-160) J. Lauzon (+140) | Cerrone | TKO | 3 |
| K. Holland (-275) T. Means (+220) | Holland | Decision | / |
| A. Duraev (-220) J. Buckley (+180) | Buckley | TKO | 1 |
| D. Ismagulov (-155) G. Kutateladze (+135) | Ismagulov | Decision | / |
| G. Rodrigues (-170) J. Marques (+150) | Marques | Decision | / |
UFC Austin: Main Event
Calvin Kattar vs Josh Emmett
Featherweight (145)
Calvin Kattar (23-5)
For all the talk about Josh Emmett’s nuclear power in the build-up to the main event, many are overlooking the Bostonian’s fabulous chin. Chikadze, Stephens and Burgos all ran out of gas trying to break Kattar physically or mentally. If you can’t finish Kattar, you’re gonna have to maintain an exceptional volume.
More worrying for Team Alpha Male fans, fans seem to have forgotten the true story of Michael Johnson vs Josh Emmett. For nigh-three rounds, an over-the-hill Johnson laid down a striking clinic (until he was slept by that punch). Kattar will be able to set the pace with his jab and consistently lead the exchanges.
Emmett’s wrestling could throw a spanner in the work. Unfortunately, Emmett’s zero attempted takedowns most recently against Dan Ige is a worrying sign of a fighter who has fallen in love with his hands. It also doesn’t help that Emmett nailed eight takedowns against Scott Holtzman that has skewed his wrestling stats since.
Josh Emmett (17-2)
Emmett can certainly handle himself on the feet. While the thirty-seven-year-old doesn’t have the technical offensive nuance that Kattar offers, there are still interesting layers to Emmett’s striking. Re-watch the Johnson KO. After fourteen minutes of receiving a spanking, Emmett had the patience to fake a takedown before catching Johnson as he slipped to the right.
Volume just seems to be the killer in this fight. That isn’t to say that Emmett is at risk of gassing – for a fighter nearing his forties, his conditioning is impeccable. Rather, Kattar typically opens and closes exchanges. Emmett has never shown slick enough counterpunching chops to commit and punish Kattar in 50/50 trades.
Call me Mystic Pint, but I foresee Kattar getting to work with leg kicks early. Emmett’s knee injury was a weak spot that Burgos failed to capitalise upon. With such consistent danger aimed at Emmett’s head, the Bostonian can mask leg kicks early that will pay dividends in the championship rounds.
Predicted Result: Kattar TKO Round 4
Call me Mystic Pint, but I foresee Kattar getting to work with leg kicks early. Emmett’s knee injury was a weak spot that Shane Burgos failed to capitalise upon. With such consistent danger aimed at Emmett’s head, the Bostonian can mask leg kicks early that will pay dividends in the championship rounds.
You can never quite count out Josh Emmett’s power. Yet, it is worrisome that Chikadze, Stephens and Burgos all ran out of gas trying to break Kattar. If you can’t finish Kattar, you’re gonna have to maintain an exceptional volume over five rounds. There is more nuance to Emmett’s striking than powerful overhands, but with a stripped-down wrestling threat over recent fights, it feels like Kattar is primed to out-work an ageing opponent.
UFC Austin: Co-Main Event
Donald Cerrone vs Joe Lauzon
Lightweight (155)
Donald Cerrone (36-16)
Cerrone’s first-round dismantling at the hands of Alex Morono was very worrying. Granted, Cowboy has never been a fast starter, but he is increasingly incapable of building momentum. Lauzon is an early-round threat that continues to carry power, indicating that Cerrone could well be iced in the first round for the third time in six fights. Unable to match the pace of opponents, Cerrone lacks the threat of his famous kicks. Still, there remains a high level of TDD and criminally underrated grappling skillset in his game.
Joe Lauzon (28-15)
J-Lau remains a coin-flip fighter in his twilight. Capable of flying out of the blocks and taking an opponent’s head off, Lauzon’s chin has also deteriorated to a worrying extent that 50/50 exchanges aren’t always the best option. Cerrone hates early pressure, a weakness that Lauzon’s aggressive blitzes will surely exploit. It’s been nearly 3 years since we’ve seen Lauzon in the octagon, however, and I dread to gauge the physical decline.
Predicted Result: Cerrone TKO Round 3
Lauzon for the first-round KO has to be the safest call. Despite my brain screaming at my foolishness, I cannot look past Lauzon’s total chin deterioration, inactivity or ‘cramps’ before the ceremonial weigh-in. Style-wise, Cerrone’s slow starts and Lauzon’s all-out aggression suggest an early night for Cowboy. For whatever reason, I sense that Cerrone’s wrestling and TDD could throw a spanner in the works and buy enough time for the veteran to make the necessary reads.
UFC Austin: Main Card
Tim Means vs Kevin Holland
Welterweight (170)
Tim Means (32-12-1)
Dirty Bird is one of the most exciting veterans on the roster. Don’t be fooled by a three-fight decision streak, Means has comfortably out-struck his opponents on the outside and cut up opponents with brutal elbows in the clinch. As a savvy vet, Means could find early success if Holland starts as inpatient as he did against Oliveira. Means fully knows his pace and has patched over his waning durability with increased emphasis on his straight shots.
Kevin Holland (22-7)
We’re unlikely to see Kevin Holland get ragdolled in the clinch. Holland’s ground game may be questionable, but his long limbs make him a constant nuisance grappling on the feet. A thoroughly accurate counter-puncher, Holland’s athletic edge will lend itself to superiority on the outside. Means could tie up Holland against the cage and offer enough to scrape the rounds, but it is just as likely that Holland wobbles Means.
Predicted Result: Holland Decision
As a savvy vet, Means could find early success if Holland starts as inpatient as he did against Oliveira. Means fully knows his pace and has patched over his waning durability with increased emphasis on his straight shots. Unfortunately for Means, Holland’s athletic edge will lend itself to sharp counter punches. Sure, de. Means could tie up Holland against the cage and offer enough to scrape the rounds, but it is just as likely that Holland wobbles Means.
Joaquin Buckley vs Albert Duraev
Middleweight (185)
Joaquin Buckley (14-4)
After dropping the KO of the year in 2020, Joaquin Buckley has barely fought. It may seem harsh as New Mansa has accrued a 3-1 record since destroying Impa Kasanganay, but a lack of mic skills has coupled with the UFC hoping one viral clip carries Buckley to a house-brand name. Has the UFC finally given up with striker-vs-striker favourable match-ups for Buckley? More likely, Duraev’s wrestling was worrisome at best in his debut, while his striking is laughable.
Albert Duraev (15-3)
It would be foolish to write off Duraev claiming an early submission. Buckley’s TDD has holes and the American’s tendency to throw full-blooded each shot often leaves him open to takedowns. Still, even with Buckley’s one-note speed, Duraev is too hittable not to suffer before getting this to the mat.
Predicted Result: Buckley TKO Round 1
It would be foolish to write off Duraev claiming an early submission. Buckley’s TDD has holes and the American’s tendency to throw full-blooded each shot often leaves him open to takedowns. Still, even with Buckley’s one-note speed, Duraev is too hittable not to suffer before getting this to the mat. A fun match-up regardless.
Damir Ismagulov vs Guram Kutateladze
Lightweight (155)
Damir Ismagulov (23-1)
Now we’re talking about a hell of a decision fighter with Ismagulov sitting on a 7-fight decision streak (bar one TKO injury). In all fairness to the Kazakh fighter, he has faced some stern tests in the UFC so far, sitting on the scalps of Joel Alvarez and Thiago Moises. A fabulous decision-maker, it seems to have been a double-edged sword as Ismagulov rarely risks searching for a finish. Why bother when you possess a great jab in a sport that often ignores the most important foundation block?
Guram Kutateladze (12-2)
Kutateladze managed to neutralise the extremely well-rounded skillset of Mateusz Gamrot on late notice. Slick defensive grappling on the mat indicates that Kutateladze could succeed at Lightweight. Still, the Georgian’s mobility seems incapable of maintaining the necessary distance from Ismagulov’s wrestling threat.
Predicted Result: Ismagulov Decision
A fabulous decision-maker, it seems to have been a double-edged sword as Ismagulov rarely risks searching for a finish. Why bother when you possess a fantastic jab, though? Kutateladze managed to neutralise the extremely well-rounded skillset of Mateusz Gamrot on late notice, but there wasn’t much evidenced in the way of aggression or offensive tools.
Julian Marquez vs Gregory Rodrigues
Middleweight (185)
Julian Marquez (9-2)
If it ain’t the Cuban Missle Crisis. The same man who single-handedly fumbled the bag with Miley Cyrus. Mid-2021, it seemed like Marquez was set for mega hype as he continued his long finishing streak. Heavy-handed, Marques is a work in progress regarding technicals on the feet, but his short reach lends itself to his aggressive brawling on the inside anyway. Someone will punish Marquez’s naked chin, whether Rodrigues owns fast enough hands to punish it is questionable.
Gregory Rodrigues (11-4)
I like Robocop but we have seen the Brazilian lose early or gas late. Rodrigues could certainly hit reactive takedowns and hold position to stall out the opening rounds, but he seems incapable of fighting the final round with anything but 5% left in the gas tank. I ain’t picking against my boy, though.
Predicted Result: Marques Decision
I like Robocop but we have seen the Brazilian lose early or gas late. Rodrigues could certainly hit reactive takedowns and hold position to stall out the opening rounds, but he also did just drop a split decision to Armen Petrosyan. Marques is a work in progress regarding technicals on the feet, but his short reach lends itself to his aggressive brawling on the inside.
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