Alexandre Pantoja defends his UFC Flyweight title against Steve Erceg in the headline fight of UFC 301, taking place this Saturday at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
The Brazilian champion will hope that hometown support gives him the edge as the promotion arrives in Brazil for the first time this year.
Jose Aldo, another familiar face around the Land of the Holy Cross, is set to return to the octagon after his retirement announcement in September 2022. The former WEC and UFC Featherweight champion faces the fearsome leg-kicking threat of Jonathan Martinez in the UFC 301 co-main event.
As always at Pintsized Interests, we dug deep into the stats and tape to deliver our expert UFC predictions for every fight this weekend. Join us as we analyse the matchups and give us hell in the comments below if you disagree with us!
Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg | UFC Flyweight Championship
The wheels of the Flyweight division continue to churn, championship belt or not.
Alexandre Pantoja returns to the octagon just four months after successfully defending his 125lb title against Brandon Royval. ‘The Cannibal’ is one of the division’s biggest decision merchants, but that doesn’t mean his fights aren’t entertaining.
Possessing a thoroughly rounded skillset, Pantoja is capable of punishing opponents in any aspect of the fight. In his past two title fights, however, the Brazilian has had to call upon his wrestling more than ever. Accumulating 14 takedowns over ten rounds, he has enjoyed nearly 24 minutes of control time on the mat.
Despite Steve Erceg’s buttery smooth striking, the question mark remains over his TDD. Astroboy is yet to face a wrestler of note during his UFC tenure – the corpse of Matt Schnell withstanding.
While the Perth striker found his finishing touch last time out, stopping Schnell via strikes in the second-round, he lacks the raw firepower to earn Pantoja’s respect.
Pantoja vs Erceg Prediction: Pantoja Submission Round 3
Jonathan Martinez vs Jose Aldo | Bantamweight Co-Main Event
Strap in for a leg kick battle for the record books. Jonathan Martinez stands alongside Edson Barboza as the only fighters to have recorded multiple leg kick TKOs in the promotion.
Key to Martinez’s success is the inside leg kick. The rarely seen kick surprises opponents, throwing them off balance and squaring their hips to leave them vulnerable to strikes.
Can the return of recently retired Jose Aldo expose the dangers of the inside leg kick? While the former UFC Featherweight champion is perhaps most revered for his demolition job on Urijah Faber’s leg, the Brazilian’s leg defence is equally exceptional.
If Aldo can shake off the cage rust relatively early, we should expect to see some tasty cross checking of Martinez’s inside calf kick. How will Martinez react if such a major building block of his offensive strategy is stripped away early? All fascinating questions for an otherwise grim fight.
Martinez vs Aldo Prediction: Aldo Decision
Anthony Smith vs Vitor Petrino | Light Heavyweight Main Card
Anthony Smith needs someone to put a friendly hand on his shoulder and relieve him of his duties. The miles on Lionheart’s body are finally catching up to him – an understandable development for a fighter with 56 fights in the locker.
For fans, however, how many more gun-shy showcases will we have to endure before the charade ends?
Perhaps a match-up against the ferociously explosive Vitor Petrino is the UFC’s way of giving Smith the nudge. While the 26-year-old stank out the joint against Tyson Pedro in March, he remains a fearsome one-shot KO artist. Against an increasingly immobile Smith, this contest shouldn’t see the final bell.
Smith vs Petrino Prediction: Petrino TKO Round 2
Michel Pereira vs Ihor Potieria | Middleweight Main Card
Michel Pereira‘s career has been held in purgatory since his back-to-back fight cancelations against Wonderboy. The freak athlete has picked up two stoppages at Middleweight over the past couple of years, snapping his four-decision streak at Welterweight.
Yet, the Brazilian has not faced an opponent of note at 185lbs. UFC matchmakers have been unwilling to push Pereira after he overhauled his x-factor approach, following an embarrassing loss to Tristan Connelly five years ago.
Thankfully for Pereira, Ihor Potieria is booty cheeks. Pardon the expression but the Ukrainian only exists in the UFC because of his padded record.
Pereira vs Potieria Prediction: Pereira TKO Round 1
Paul Craig vs Caio Borralho | Middleweight Main Card
Paul Craig‘s decision to drop down to Middleweight remains one of the more bizarre developments in recent memory. Bearjew may have felt he was outgunned on the feet at 205lbs, but that firepower was offset by the famine of technical ability amongst the bigger boys.
The Scotsman remains a serpent on the mat, however, while Caio Borralho has never showcased the fight smarts to veer away from danger.
Over the Brazilian’s perfect five-win UFC record, Borralho has went to the ground in every single fight. Albeit, he often enters from a dominant position – but no position can truly be considered safe when facing Craig’s liquid BJJ off the back.
Craig vs Borralho Prediction: Borralho Decision
UFC 301 Prelims Picks
Joanderson Brito vs Jack Shore Prediction: Shore Decision
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Iasmin Lucindo Prediction: Lucindo TKO Round 3
Elves Brener vs Myktybek Orolbai Prediction: Orolbai Decision
Joaquim Silva vs Drakkar Klose Prediction: Klose TKO Round 2
Mauricio Ruffy vs Jamie Mullarkey Prediction: Mullarkey Decision
Dione Barbosa vs Ernesta Kareckaite Prediction: Barbosa Decision
Ismael Bonfim vs Vinc Pichel Prediction: Bonfim TKO Round 1
Alessandro Costa vs Kevin Borjas Prediction: Costa Decision
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