As the blockbuster UFC 300 event fast approaches this Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada, the UFC’s tricentennial event offers a little something for everyone. Across a stacked thirteen-fight card, fans can expect fireworks in the octagon on April 13th as twelve current or former UFC champions populate a line-up brimming with talent.
Headlining the pay-per-view is a guaranteed slug fest, pitting reigning UFC Light Heavyweight champion, Alex Pereira, against former titleholder Jamahal Hill. Adding to the excitement is a historic UFC title fight between two Chinese athletes, as Zhang Weili looks to defend her strawweight championship against challenger Yan Xiaonan. Additionally, while the BMF belt is more for show than substance, the meeting between Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway promises an epic war of attrition on the feet.
As always at Pintsized Interests, we have dug deep into the stats, tape and everything in-between to bring you our predictions for each bout on this weekend’s UFC card. Join us as we analyse the matchups and offer our expert insights – and give us hell in the comments below if you disagree with us!
Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill | Light Heavyweight Championship Main Event
It is understandable to see Saturday’s headliner as nothing more than a one-and-done type of affair on the feet. Both current champion Alex Pereira and former title holder Jamahal Hill possess lights-out knockout power in their hands. The coin-flip nature of such an affair makes it a tricky fight to predict.
In a strictly stand-up sense, the Brazilian is light years ahead of Hill in terms of fundamentals. Poatan’s efficient aggression is founded in his innate ability to cut the cage and pressure opponent’s while limiting energy expenditure. Conversely for Hill, the 32-year-old’s footwork is amateurish at best – consistently crossing his feet and leaving him unable to effectively counter.
Neither fighter is likely to opt for any semblance of a wrestling-centric gameplan. After all, Hill has never registered a takedown across his eight-fight UFC career. That isn’t to say that the fight won’t transition to the mat via a knockdown though. Although Pereira has survived against more technical grapplers in Andreas Michailidis and Israel Adesanya, he will pose somewhat of a sitting duck to Hill’s clubbing ground and pound.
Pereira vs Hill Prediction: Pereira TKO Round 2
Weili Zhang vs Xiaonan Yan | Strawweight Championship Co-Main Event
As long as Weili Zhang hasn’t endured a freak injury in training camp or suffers a tough weight cut, there is little reason to bet against the current UFC strawweight champion. The Hebei native is the undisputed best in the division, having dispatched former champs Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Carla Asparza to the tune of consecutive second-round stoppages.
While Xiaonan Yan tends to throw at a similar click to Zhang, averaging 5.5-6 strikes landed per minute over their UFC careers, the challenger is far less polished in her combinations. The 34-year-old pours out heavy volume off the front-foot but tends to only land within the pocket. When facing a fearsome power puncher in Zhang, a leaky defence in a phone booth brawl will not suffice.
Even if Yan is to arrive to the T-Mobile Arena with a few surprises on the feet, she will still struggle against the champ’s takedown threat. Yan’s impressive 70% TDD has been inflated by her victory against Mackenzie Dern, in which she limited the Brazilian to just two successful takedowns from 11 attempts. Dern is a whizz on the mat but has never been a capable wrestler – the same cannot be said for Zhang.
Zhang vs Yan Prediction: Zhang Submission Round 3
Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway | BMF Championship Lightweight Main Card
After Justin Gaethje was choked out by Charles Oliveira in his last title bid back in 2022, few would have considered the then 33-year-old earning another crack at the belt. The Highlight had built his name off of the back of his unrivalled power punching and chopping leg kicks. Unfortunately for the Coloradan, his deficiencies on the mat were exposed in both his title shots.
Despite being pushed as a sacrificial lamb towards the red-hot Rafael Fiziev, Gaethje turned back the clock to grit out a deserved majority decision victory. He then followed up with a stunning head kick KO over Dustin Poirier at UFC 29, providing the most visceral statement of championship intent.
Power has been the one element that has been disregarded in the build-up to Max Holloway fights. The veteran Hawaiian striker has showcased a granite chin over his 32-fight career, repelling the potent striking of Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Calvin Kattar to name just a few.
It is worth remembering Holloway’s last venture into Lightweight was a bloody affair, however. Blessed fell to a unanimous decision loss against Poirier for the Interim belt, absorbing an incredible amount of punish over five-rounds which saw Holloway staggered at times. As painful as it is to say, the former Featherweight champ could be broken on Saturday.
Gaethje vs Holloway Prediction: Gaethje TKO Round 4
Charles Oliveira vs Arman Tsarukyan | Lightweight Main Card
Eesh, the UFC have not done fan favourite Charles Oliveira much favours with this Saturday’s match-up. The former Lightweight titleholder galvanised hearts with his kill-or-be-killed style that continued throughout his rollercoaster reign as champion. While Do Bronx was handled with relative ease by Islam Makhachev at UFC 280, Oliveira evidenced his ascent to the 155lb elite was no fluke with a first-round TKO over Beneil Dariush last June.
For all of Chucky Olives’ insane finishing ability, however, he will be facing a polished technician on the rise in Arman Tsarukyan. The Armenian has only lost twice during his UFC tenure, decision losses to Makhachev and the vastly experienced Mateusz Gamrot. Now entering his physical prime at 27-years-old, Tsarukyan will be gunning for a title shot off the back of a dub over Oliveira. Over five rounds, Oliveira’s high-risk BJJ could pose a threat off his back against Tsarukyan, but in this three-round affair, I am backing the prospect to edge the scorecards.
Oliveira vs Tsarukyan Prediction: Tsarukyan Decision
Bo Nickal vs Cody Brundage | Middleweight Main Card
Wrestling prodige, Bo Nickal, can count his lucky stars to have earned a Main Card spot on UFC 300. The 28-year-old was a decorated freestyle and folk wrestler, but the three-time NCAA Division 1 national champion is yet to face a relevant opponent in his fledgling five-fight MMA career. Fans will point at his five consecutive first-round finishes, with his longest fight clocking in at 2:54 against Jamie Pickett. Highlight reels aside, however, the quality of this match-up is severely lacking for such a momentous occasion.
Although no hate is intended for Cody Brundage, the 27-year-old has failed to lift himself from obscurity over eight UFC fights. The Marc Montoya-coached prospect is technically riding a two-fight streak, but one of those results stemmed from a DQ victory over Jacob Malkoun following an illegal elbow to the back of the head. Considering Brundage was felled by Nick Maximov’s power wrestling approach, a limited opponent at best, there is little hope that the Nickal hype train will end this Saturday.
Nickal vs Brundage Prediction: Nickal Submission Round 1
UFC 300 Prelims Picks
Jiri Prochazka vs Aleksandar Rakic Prediction: Prochazka Decision
Calvin Kattar vs Aljamain Sterling Prediction: Kattar Decision
Holly Holm vs Kayla Harrison Prediction: Harrison Decision
Sodiq Yusuff vs Diego Lopez Prediction: Yusuff Decision
Jalin Turner vs Renato Moicano Prediction: Turner TKO Round 2
Jessica Andrade vs Marina Rodriguez Prediction: Andrade Decision
Bobby Green vs Jim Miller Prediction: Green Decision
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Cody Garbrandt Prediction: Figueiredo TKO Round 2
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