Sandhagen vs Dillashaw Analysis and Prediction

Cory Sandhagen (14-2) vs T.J. Dillashaw (16-4)

Bantamweight (135)

Cory Sandhagen

I’m not sure anyone can quite believe the knockout run that Sandhagen has embarked upon after his emphatic loss to Aljamain Sterling. While the Moraes finish hasn’t aged well, it was still a dangerous match-up at the time and there is no denying the Brazilian’s freakish first-round threat. Against Dillashaw, Sandhagen will benefit from a 5″ height and 3″ reach advantage. Although Sandhagen often shortens his jabs to double/triple shots, straight shots out of both stances will be key to frustrate Dillashaw’s attempts to pressure.

Sandhagen’s finest work stems from his jab and series of feints. While many fighters will feint to gain reads early, Sandhagen is a rare breed that maintains feints through the entirety. As a result, Sandhagen keeps a relentless pace on an opponent – physically and mentally. Using the jab as a range-finder, Sandhagen baits opponents onto counters. If an opponent doesn’t react or lifts his guard, Sandhagen safely pours out volume with hooks to the head and body.

With sustained attacks to the head and body, Sandhagen is keen to pepper lead legs too. Additionally, Sandhagen always has the wild card of a flying knee. Although a risky strike, Sandhagen limits the dangers of poor positioning/TDD by throwing the flying knee when an opponent is already pressed against the cage. Moreover, as mentioned before, Sandhagen frequently uses the kimura to create scrambles and break himself out of awkward positions.

T.J. Dillashaw

Wherever you stand on the Dillashaw EPO debacle, everyone has to concede that he is one of the finest fighters to date. Able to push a ridiculous pace from start to finish, Dillashaw’s heavy-handed switch-hitting and powerful wrestling base tore through a long list of top Bantamweights. Questions do remain over what TJ will return? Although somewhat trivial, will there be any nightmares lingering from his emphatic stoppage defeat to Cejudo? Has his body adapted after (hopefully) easing off any PEDs he was running? Is his thirty-five-year-old body able to compete at the same pace?

It is safest to assume that the TJ of old will return (not the weight drained stick insect that faced Cejudo). Vital to Dillashaw’s success is his patented drop shift. Withdrawing the lead foot, switching feet, creating a new angle for a strike (commonly a hook or uppercut) while creating timing problems for opponents. To get an essence of Dillashaw’s frequent success with the drop shift, a re-watch of his fight with Renan Barao is necessary.

The key to Dillashaw’s success on the night will be whether he can consistently work off the front foot. Although possessing slick head movement, Sandhagen’s range and Dillashaw’s un-coordinated backwards footwork will come undone overextended exchanges. Instead, Dillashaw needs to drown Sandhagen in volume and force the taller fighter to the cage. While single or double legs are ill-advised due to Sandhagen’s tendency to immediately latch upon a kimura, Sandhagen has shown weaknesses against the body lock. If Dillashaw can mix his wrestling in with his striking, he can force a gruelling pace that Sandhagen will struggle to survive with by the championship rounds.

Predicted Result: Sandhagen Decision

The key to Dillashaw’s success on the night will be whether he can consistently work off the front foot. Although possessing slick head movement, Sandhagen’s range and Dillashaw’s un-coordinated backwards footwork will unravel overextended exchanges. Instead, Dillashaw needs to drown Sandhagen in volume and force the taller fighter to the cage. While single or double legs are ill-advised due to Sandhagen’s tendency to immediately latch upon a kimura, Sandhagen has shown weaknesses against the body lock. If Dillashaw can mix his wrestling in with his striking, he can force a gruelling pace that Sandhagen will struggle to survive with by the championship rounds.

Of course, Sandhagen’s masterful jab and feints, in addition to the 5″ height and 3″ reach advantage he will enjoy on the night, are tough hurdles for a thirty-five-year-old coming off a two-year layoff. While Dillashaw should still probably be favoured, form is a hugely important factor in fighting and personally, too many questions surround what version of TJ will appear on Saturday to fully trust the former champ’s success.

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