Makhachev vs Moises Analysis and Prediction
Want to view analysis and predictions for all the match-ups on UFC on ESPN 26?
Islam Makhachev (19-1) vs Thiago Moises (15-4)
Lightweight (155)
Islam Makhachev
The #9 Lightweight is a fighter that needs to get on your radar immediately. After stumbling against Adrian Martins back in 2015, Makhachev has torn through a seven-fight streak. While some to this day still criticise the loss due to the bang average skill-set that Martins’ possesses, he remains a decent puncher and caught Makhachev cleanly. An unbeaten six-year streak with notable stoppages over Gleison Tibau and Drew Dober has surely put the demons to rest for Makhachev, however.
An extremely talented wrestler, Makhachev may opt to limit his wrestling against Moises. The Brazilian is a slick grappler off the back, and while Makhachev’s dominant top game will still likely trump Moises, it creates a risk that the Dagestani needn’t take. Forcing Moises to engage in a kickboxing affair will favour Makhachev’s slicker single-shot style, while still offering the avenue to grind Moises against the cage when necessary.
Patient on the feet, Makhachev prefers to stand at range and pick educated shots. Makhachev remains uncomfortable under pressure, evidenced by the explosive reactions that Dober drew from simple double jab feints. Moises represents a similarly patient counter striker, however, and poses nowhere near the threat to that of juicy ‘ol Dober. While Makhachev is wild with his counter left, often dropping his right hand in the process, it is powerful enough to take an opponent’s head clean off when it lands.
Thiago Moises
Moises has hardly impressed in his last three outings. With his best performance in recent memory against Alexander Hernandez, Moises’ stock isn’t worthy of the main event spot. While Hernandez is a fun fighter, he remains overrated since his shock victory over Beneil Dariush. Bobby Green arguably beat Moises in a close decision, while Michael Johnson made Moises look silly during the first round of their fight. Still, Moises has found a way to carve out a three-fight streak and added layers to his impressive grappling game.
One of the more feared submission artists, Moises poses a threat on the mat that Makhachev so far hasn’t faced in the UFC. Despite a handful of stoppages on the feet, there isn’t much hope of Moises cracking Makhachev’s chin. Preferring to sit on the back-foot, Moises natural style plays directly into Makhachev’s patient single shot striking. Moises chopping leg kicks fired low and out of catching range, may cause the Dagestani a few problems early. Moreover, Moises torques his kicks to the head yet they are often naked and easily blocked.
Worse yet for Moises, the Brazilian owns a fairly awful jab. During the third round against a gassed Alexander Hernandez, Moises regularly tangled his feet and fell into his jab. While a late-notice Hernandez lacked the gas tank to profit, Makhachev’s dangerous counter left is primed to crack Moises’ jaw if the Brazilian opens up on the front foot.
Predicted Result: Makhachev TKO Round 4
An extremely talented wrestler, Makhachev may opt to limit his wrestling against Moises. The Brazilian is a slick grappler off the back, and while Makhachev’s dominant top game will still likely trump Moises, it creates a risk that the Dagestani needn’t take. Patient on the feet, Makhachev prefers to stand at range and pick educated shots. While Makhachev is wild with his counter left, often dropping his right hand in the process, it is primed to connect on Moises when he inevitably falls into his loose jab. Moises’ leg kicks may prove a nuisance during the early rounds, but Makhachev can always opt to grind the Brazilian against the cage before making a clean read. Regardless, Makhachev vs Moises is guaranteed to shake up the Lightweight division.
Want to view analysis and predictions for all the match-ups on UFC on ESPN 26?
Tipping Jar
Pintsized Interests is just a baby finding its first steps in the big, bad world of sports journalism. If you enjoy the content that is regularly uploaded then please consider donating via the link below. Any amount is greatly appreciated, and will go towards ensuring the survival of Pintsized Interests in the long-term.
