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Lara vs Warrington 2 Analysis and Prediction

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Mauricio Lara (23-2, 16KO) vs Josh Warrington (30-1, 7KO)

Featherweight (126)

Mauricio Lara

If there is ever a time for Lara to beat Warrington again, an immediate rematch is the best bet. After an emphatic knockout in the ninth round, Warrington enters Saturday night with it all to lose. For Lara, a loss simply mains a second large payday. A win, however, opens up the door to title shots. Without the career-defining pressure on his shoulders, Lara’s comfort during the fight week build-up has been apparent across interviews and media day.

Lara, technically, is a bang average fighter. Before you jump down my throat, this is in no way saying the result of the first fight was a fluke. Nor is it to say that Warrington will win the rematch based on superior technique, the Leeds man isn’t a stellar example either. Yet Lara’s limited skillset does suggest that we will see the same approach to the fight as the first bout. Plodding footwork that regularly crossed when moving backwards, a refusal to fight anywhere else than the inside, and a serious lack of head movement leave him with few options if Warrington opts to fight on the outside. The Leeds man isn’t the cleanest out-boxer, but if he fights his natural desire for a tear-up, Lara is at a huge speed advantage. Even when Warrington was stumbling like a drunk in the fourth, Lara winged punches walking in a straight line – failing to cut off the ring against a walking corpse.

There is little reason to doubt the Mexican’s chin rising to the occasion once again. It would be nice to see any sort of feint, however. Lara’s clubbing power can still be felt on the gloves, but his telegraphed shots will miss the mark at a mid-range. That is unless Warrington chooses to stand and trade in the pocket once again. If Warrington opts to stick and move for the first half of the fight, he can frustrate Lara into whiffing at the air. We already know that Warrington is more than capable of maintaining a freakish pace and volume by the championship rounds, can Lara?

Josh Warrington

On the night, I distinctly remember Lara battering Warrington black and blue throughout the entire stretch of the fourth to ninth rounds. Detached from the emotion of the night, rewatching the tape tells a different tale. While Lara was by far the greater physical threat, each punch landing with a convincing sting, the Mexican showed his limitations against a clearly stunned foe. Perhaps the demons may be too much for Warrington to overcome, perhaps his feather fists will prove too ineffectual to overcome Lara, but this isn’t as clear cut a repeat result as many fans are believing.

During the first round, Warrington used his rarely seen straight punches. There is no denying that the Leeds faithful prefers a tear up on the inside, but sometimes the brain must override the heart. Lara regularly kept his lead hand low, dropping further when Warrington jabbed. When combined with Lara’s static footwork, opting to dip at the knees, Warrington had free reign to land a looping straight from above. Although it was an ugly punch, it was regularly landed before being stunned in the fourth. Even with a wobbled Warrington resting forehead to forehead with the Mexican, Warrington needs only the slightest shoulder push to create the space to land the looping right hand. Rather than engaging in extended fireworks in the pocket which could only favour Lara’s power, Warrington can maintain a comfortable distance with the powerful counter straight.

Despite the vitriol which follows an upset, more credit has to be given to Warrington’s heart. The Leeds man was fighting on fumes post-fourth round, yet was able to eat a ton of punishment while landing a surprising amount in return. While Lara planted his feet and tried to break Warrington, Space Raider was able to sneak in a violently fast lead hook that regularly stopped Lara mid-combination. Around the fifth round, Warrington opts to throw five lead hooks in a row, all five landed with differing results. Although the Mexican has a true poker face, Warrington stung Lara far more than he would wish to admit. At times when Lara launched flurries of hooks, Warrington landed flush liver shots. Greater emphasis on breaking down Lara’s mid-rift could easily reap rewards and provide respite to the otherwise relentless pressure.

Predicted Result: Warrington Decision

The biggest question revolves around whether Warrington is capable, or even willing, to change his natural style for the rematch. Warrington’s career success has stemmed from setting a relentless pace and breaking opponents on the inside with volume. Unfortunately, Lara’s granite chin and clubbing power proved a stylistic nightmare in the first meeting. How much can be attributed to Warrington’s disrespect for a tune-up, however? During the first couple of rounds, the Leeds man found regular success with his straight shots and left Lara looking limited.

That is understandable though, for all intents and purposes, Lara is limited. In the pocket, Lara’s power will cause trouble even when landing on the gloves. Seemingly not once deflecting or blocking a shot, Lara’s chin and poker face stood steadfast. Yet Lara’s deficiencies were best exposed in the fifth round – a round where Warrington was drunkenly stumbling. Lara failed to cut off the ring effectively, instead of throwing flurries of hooks on a straight line, while eating regular lead hooks in return. If Warrington opts to stick and move, even for the first half of the fight, just how does Lara respond? We already know that Warrington is more than capable of maintaining a freakish pace and volume, can Lara?

Can Josh Warrington put to rest the demons from February? | Lara vs Warrington 2
Can Josh Warrington put to rest the demons from February? | Lara vs Warrington 2

Want to view analysis and predictions for all the match-ups on Lara vs Warrington 2?


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