Jared Cannonier vs Kelvin Gastelum Analysis and Prediction

Jared Cannonier (13-5) vs Kelvin Gastelum (17-7)

Middleweight (185)

Jared Cannonier

Coming into Saturday, both Cannonier and Gastelum share a loss against former champion, Robert Whittaker. Gastelum’s recent revival of his wrestling base may prove an issue, having not seen much of Cannonier’s TDD in the past. While the Killa Gorilla struggled hard against Glover Texeira, since moving to Middleweight, Cannonier’s physical size has papered over the cracks. Moreover, with increased complexity on the feet, Cannonier’s jab and low kicks have expanded his eat one to give one style. That isn’t to say that Cannonier lacks a slick counter-striking game, but he is more than willing to engage in equal trades based on his power. Whittaker, Hermansson and Branch were all unable to hold Cannonier tied down – what can Gastelum offer that the aforementioned lacked?

Cannonier’s deep gas tank, evidenced against Whittaker, will benefit him around the championship rounds. Despite being a three-round fight, Cannonier almost finished Whitaker after eating two rounds of hard punishment. Over five rounds, in a fight where Gastelum will struggle to keep Cannonier tied down for significant periods, the Killa Gorilla’s chance of landing vastly increases. Worse yet for Gastelum, Cannonier’s attritional leg kicks will limit the fridge’s movement. Till was able to keep busy and cement Gastelum to the mat with constant leg kicks. Add the 6.5-inch reach advantage and Gastelum’s tendency to exit failed clinch/wrestling engages with his hands down start to paint a devastating picture.

Kelvin Gastelum

Poor old Ian Heinisch was put under an intense pace by a renewed wrestling-focused Gastelum. Unfortunately for the tubby little fridge, his aggressive blitzes aren’t a style designed to succeed against Cannonier. Killa Gorilla’s straight shots will negate Gastelum’s hand speed, an already overrated weapon, while the power differential favours the former. Gastelum certainly has a quality chin, Adesanya and Whittaker can both attest. Yet Cannonier carries freakish power, possessing a harder one-shot than either Australasian. The Southpaw one-two isn’t looking like the unbeatable strategy it did against the corpses of Johny Hendricks, Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping.

Gastelum also owns one of the strangest, perhaps unintentionally padded, record? It is very easy to look back and downplay match-ups after seeing an opponent’s decline – but the only active UFC fighters that Gastelum has wins over are Uriah Hall and Ian Heinisch. Cannonier does tend to give his back to get back to his feet, however. Gastelum is quick to latch onto an opponent’s back and snap up a submission, leaving a potential avenue for a strange, early Gastelum victory. At a crossroads, a win over Cannonier could fire Gastelum towards an Adesanya rematch, while a loss would leave Gastelum in purgatory with only one victory in his past six. Perhaps Gastelum’s penchant for knocking off older veterans will once again reign supreme.

Predicted Result: Cannonier Decision

Coming into Saturday, both Cannonier and Gastelum share a loss against former champion, Robert Whittaker. Gastelum’s recent revival of his wrestling base may prove an issue, having not seen much of Cannonier’s TDD in the past. Since moving to Middleweight, Cannonier’s physical size has papered over the cracks. Cannonier’s deep gas tank, terrifying one-shot knockout power and attritional leg kicks all indicate a long night for Gastelum. The fridge’s southpaw one-twos won’t be fast enough to negate Cannonier’s 6.5″ reach advantage, and after a few stuffed takedowns, will be left clueless in a similar manner to the Till fight.

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