Gamrot vs Stephens Analysis and Prediction

Mateusz Gamrot (18-1) vs Jeremy Stephens (28-18)

Lightweight (155)

Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot brought a huge backing from his KSW days to the UFC, but the Pole hasn’t exactly set the world alight. While his debut loss was debatable, Gamrot failed to unlock his wrestling that remains core to his game plan. If he can shoot on Stephens during one of his lunging barrages, Gamrot has a stellar top game that can smother the American for entire rounds. The major question mark hangs over whether Gamrot can survive the odd clean hit that Stephens will find. If so, Gamrot has to be favoured to produce a grinding, tight performance.

Gamrot’s defensive footwork leaves a lot to be desired. While the Pole does a decent job of staying outside striking range, he often backtracks in a straight line. Eating up his own space and backing himself onto the cage, Gamrot will be doing Stephens a huge favour as he creates an inescapable pocket in which Stephens’ power can thrive. Worse yet, Gamrot’s lazy level changes against Scott Holtzman were peppered with uppercuts. Although the Pole eventually secured single legs with frequency by the end of the first round, it isn’t smart to roll the dice with Stephens’ power.

Jeremy Stephens

Returning to Lightweight after struggling to make the Featherweight limit, Lil Heathen searches in need of a victory. Riding a four-fight slide, Stephens’ power and aggression enable him to remain a live wire. Stephens is the perfect gatekeeper in regards to dictating an opponent’s level of game-planning. It is not enough to be an elite athlete or technician in one area, against Stephens, an opponent needs to prove their ring generalship. Stephens’ power can crack any chin given the chance, but his consistent failure to cut off the cage means opponents can successfully stick and move. Unfortunately for some, such as Josh Emmett or Doo Ho Choi, they were dragged into phone booth wars and lost via brutal stoppages.

Stephens’ TDD is strange. Typically strong, there are a few exceptions where Lil Heathen has been utterly dominated. As Gamrot’s wrestling has been hit or miss so far in the UFC, it is a difficult call. If the fight remains standing, Stephens uses a lovely combo of a looping right hand into a body kick. The American is prone to biting hard on feints, however. Kattar, an elite striker, used minor shoulder movements that had Stephens unloading 2-3 shot counters into thin air. Gamrot doesn’t own Kattar’s chin, however, nor the slick head movement. Additionally, Stephens ended extended combinations with inside leg kicks – an excellent tactic that should be employed against Gamrot’s granite feet.

Predicted Result: Stephens Decision

A wonderfully balanced match despite Stephens’ four-fight slide. Given Stephens’ extremely hit or miss TDD, it seems foolish to back Lil Heathen, but there are too many holes in Gamrot’s striking defence for Stephens not to tag him early. While Stephens’ power is often overrated, his early aggression should bank enough rounds that he can spare a round if Gamrot finally gets his wrestling going. The Pole is a competent striker with a solid jab, but his tendency to eat heavy shots is fatal against a heavy-handed veteran.

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