Edwards vs Diaz Analysis and Prediction

Leon Edwards (18-3) vs Nate Diaz (20-12)

Welterweight (170)

Leon Edwards

Across twenty-five minutes, we are all in agreement that an Edward’s elbow is going to slice open Diaz’s scar tissue? After peppering Diaz with low kicks out of his Southpaw stance, Edwards can unleash swift boxing combinations on his immobile foe. While Diaz’s range and awkward jab has given opponents problems before, Edward’s masterful clinch work sees thudding knees and elbows thrown at blinding speed. Diaz, a fighter who thrives when lingering in the pocket, is a prime target for a ridiculous amount of punishment. Edward’s solid lateral movement, and smart decision making to tie up before being caught against the cage, will see the Brit succeed in a similar manner to Jorge Masvidal.

Edward’s gas tank is a real issue, though. Edward’s is a superb leader in the octagon during the early rounds, setting a strong pace and wearing down opponents at range and in the clinch. There always seems to be a sharp decline in the output by the final rounds, however. Whether that is a mental boom or conditioning trouble, there is a clean loss of initiative. Still, Edwards always has the option to out-wrestle Diaz. Even if the Brit cannot piece his striking together on the night, perhaps Diaz size proves too awkward, then Edwards can easily put Diaz on his arse.

Nate Diaz

What is there left to write about the Stockton boy? If it wasn’t clear before the Masvidal fight, it is clear that Nate is sticking around the UFC as long as they offer him big money for seemingly hopeless fights. This is no more clear than the rumours that Nate will be next in line for a title shot if he is to be victorious on Saturday.

Diaz’s best chances of success are based on his deep gas tank and submission skills. While Edward’s isn’t about to put on a wrestling clinic ala Rory MacDonald, the Brit has never been submitted in his career and has sharpened his top game immensely over the years. Although five rounds certainly favours Diaz, he thrives in attritional warfare that requires himself to pull ahead around the mid-rounds.

Predicted Result: Edwards TKO Round 4

Stylistically, Edwards should wipe the floor with Diaz. As a Southpaw, the channel is wide open for Edwards to destroy Diaz’s legs. On the outside, Edwards can box up Diaz as the Brit’s angles will continue to frustrate Diaz’s ugly pressure. Edward’s gas tank is a real issue, though. There always seems to be a sharp decline in the output by the final rounds, however. Whether that is a mental boom or conditioning trouble, there is a clean loss of initiative. Despite Diaz’s deep gas tank, he thrives in attritional warfare that requires himself to pull ahead around the mid-rounds. Moreover, Edward’s always has the emergency back-up wrestling plan if he fails to piece together his striking on the night.

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