Brunson vs Till Analysis and Prediction

Derek Brunson (22-7) vs Darren Till (18-3-1)

Middleweight (185)

Derek Brunson

Oh, Dereck. We’ve been here so many times before. Typically, after Brunson carves out a tasty little run for himself, he is knocked straight back to his role as perennial Middleweight gatekeeper. While many will point to a handsome four-fight win streak, the longest in his career post-2016, it hasn’t been the most glamorous. Elias Theodorou was an ugly, tippy-tappy match, Ian Heinisch failed to meet the necessary defensive wrestling requirements, and Kevin Holland simply cannot keep himself standing. Yet even within this favourable run, Brunson claimed his greatest scalp of recent memory over Edmen Shahbazyan. The hot prospect was expected to walk over Brunson, yet the American deployed a perfect showcasing of striking transitioning into wrestling.

The same old frustrating issues remain with Brunson. Defensively exposed at the start of a fight, Brunson’s aggression and high chin often result in him eating heavy shots early. While he was able to shrug off a clean head kick by Ian Heinisch in the first seven seconds of their fight, more heavier-handed foes have exploited this. Adesanya, Jacare, and Whittaker all secured first-round stoppages after a wild Brunson opening. Till’s counter straight left is primed to snapping Brunson’s jaw early, it just depends whether the veteran has the durability to bear it.

Still, Brunson’s front-foot aggression is somewhat justifiable as it enables him to level the striking playing field against more technical opponents. Thriving at an uncomfortably short striking range, Brunson can land his powerful overhands and left high kick, while pursuing a takedown in the ensuing chaos. Till doesn’t appear to have fearful one-shot KO power, neither at Welterweight or Middleweight. Better yet, Till cannot fall back into the clinch to smother inside work as he did against Kelvin Gastelum. Brunson is a superior wrestler, natural at 185 and would be able to dirty box from a collar tie. If the thirty-seven-year-old can endure Till’s early power, he has a realistic chance of cracking Till’s spoiling style of outside striking.

Darren Till

There are two ways to approach Till’s career at this point. On the one hand, you have a hype train with a 1-3 record over the past three years. In this record, the sole win comes against a fighter who has run a 1-5 record since 2018. Alternatively, you see a former title challenger, who took on a huge risk by facing Kelvin Gastelum when moving up a weight class. Since then, Till has gone on to lose a razor-close decision to Middleweight royalty, Robert Whittaker. The truth probably falls somewhere between the two takes.

Yes, Woodley and Masvidal knocked Till on his arse, but Till has shown a surprisingly solid chin at Middleweight. The issue instead is how Till reacts to being tagged. Already a painfully low volume fighter, when Till finds himself countered cleanly, he falls back into an even more patient single-shot approach. If he carried Woodley-esque power, that would be acceptable, but the Scouser has yet to show it. A powerful left straight can only take a fighter so far, less so when there are no set-ups. By committing hard to every combination, Till is primed for counters after opponents have spent enough time to gauge Till’s awkward length and angles. More liberal clinch work to smother inside fighting, and a frequent leg kick, at least go some way to upping his activity.

Darren Till, for all his flaws, is a difficult man to take down. While Brunson represents the greatest wrestling threat of his career to date, even the great Robert Whittaker was only able to secure 2 of 13 attempted takedowns. Till’s clear speed advantage may prove key in the pivotal early sequences of the fight. If the Liverpudlian lands early, as expected with Brunson’s style, there is no doubt he can wobble Brunson. Unfortunately for Till, he is one of the worst finishers in the sport. Allowing Robert Whittaker to recover is acceptable, he has a freakish recovery time as shown against Yoel Romero, yet it is inexcusable to not stop Nicolas Dalby and Jessin Ayari. Conditioning issues are the key behind Till’s struggles to finish. While many expected the jump up in 15lbs and a lack of hard weight cut to paper over the cracks – it doesn’t appear to have helped.

Predicted Result: Till TKO Round 1

A frustratingly difficult bout to call, more so for considering each fighters flaws rather than their skills. While it is too early to call, Brunson appears to have finally cracked the sweet spot between his striking and transitioning into his wrestling. Out-wrestling Kevin Holland isn’t too surprising, it was a stylistic nightmare for Holland, yet Brunson’s victory over Edmen Shahbazyan showcased his quality. Thriving at an uncomfortably short striking range, Brunson can land his powerful overhands and left high kick, while pursuing a takedown in the ensuing chaos. With a deep-ish gas tank, Brunson should be more than capable of beating Till on activity if he can escape the first round.

Unfortunately for Brunson, he isn’t the most composed fighter during the opening sequences. Brunson’s aggression and high chin often result in him eating heavy shots early. While he was able to shrug off a clean head kick by Ian Heinisch in the first seven seconds of their fight, more heavier-handed foes have exploited this. Till has never shown one-shot knockout quality in the UFC, but he has also dropped Whittaker early and his powerful counter straight is primed to crack Brunson. I’m listening to my heart rather than my brain here, but I’m backing Till’s early distance control and speed differential to stop an ageing Brunson early.

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