Aspinall vs Spivak Analysis and Prediction

Tom Aspinall (10-2) vs Sergey Spivak (13-2)

Heavyweight (265)

Tom Aspinall

For such a highly regarded prospect, Tom Aspinall almost fell at his first real career hurdle last time out. An early pressure fighter, Aspinall’s power is clearly evident. When Arlovski proved unwilling to fold under the Brit’s physical prowess, however, Aspinall appeared to run out of options on the feet. Thankfully, Aspinall’s wrestling is severely underrated (for the division) and was able to submit the heavily weathered but wily veteran. Spivak is a polar opposite fighter to Arlovski, desperate to fall upon his wrestling. Despite improvements to his striking since his UFC debut, he is still sorely limited as seen in his failure to beat a century-old Oleinik in 50/50 exchanges. With a far greater physical ceiling and a solid TDD, Aspinall can keep this fight standing and overwhelm the Moldovan. The only issue will be a propensity to burn the reserves too early and exhaust himself in the later rounds.

Sergey Spivak

Spivak is a difficult fighter to gauge. There are times when his chin is made of biscuits, crumbling under the ugly yet powerful pressure of Walt Harris, but then at times, it is able to hold up to Tuivasa’s meteor power. While Arlovski represents the striking gatekeeper at Heavyweight, Spivak represents the wrestling flavour. Without the physical advantages to overwhelm Aspinall to the mat, Spivak will have to rely on trips to get on top. Of course, Spivak could always opt to bank on his chin and ride an early storm – bridging the physical gap by virtue of his superior conditioning. It isn’t a safe call, though.

Predicted Result: Aspinall TKO Round 2

For such a highly regarded prospect, Tom Aspinall almost fell at his first real career hurdle last time out. When Arlovski proved unwilling to fold under the Brit’s physical prowess, Aspinall appeared to run out of options on the feet. Saved by his underrated wrestling (in regards to the division), Aspinall will have to return to his boxing against Spivak. Physically inferior, Spivak will struggle to take this fight to the mat early and will have to bank on his chin under early Aspinall pressure. With a far greater physical ceiling and a solid TDD, Aspinall should overwhelm Spivak without needing to burn the entire fuel reserves.

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